Windows XP refresh will DO NOTHING for lame PC market next year The XP refresh provided the boon that computer makers and their respective channel suppliers clung to following a period of lean sales, but the majority of replacement have now taken place. This is according to market beanie Gartner, which estimates 70 per cent of the 30 million installed based of machines across Western …
Like it or hate it, Tablets and phones has and will continue to take the place of PCs. Stuff we wanted or needed to do 10 years ago required a PC, little or no choice was available without stepping outside a comfort zone. 10 years ago, we carried huge laptops back and forth, plugged them into docking stations at locations.
Now, many task can be done with a phone or tablet, and they will continue to get better, faster, so they will continue to take on more task that requires a PC. There will always be a place for PC running Windows, Linux, whatever, but with cloud storage, cloud computing, apps replacing software, the bite they are taking from Windows AND PCs will get bigger.
Hell, there are Kids today that have never seen Windows XP! One ask me why the button was labeled "Start" instead of the "Windows" button. These same kids are carrying tablets, the way we use to carry laptops, and they are plugging them into docking stations with keyboards, and projecting the screen onto a large screen TV. I think one even had it linked to an Xbox of some kind. My point being, PCs are gonna go the way of the carburetor, back in the day, everyone knew what it was, work on it, tweak it, etc... Now everything I know of has fuel injection, and that's what these kids are growing up with, not carbs, but fuel injectors. (Bad comparison, I know, but couldn't think of anything else, need coffee, or, for the newer generation, Java Latte Mocco or whatever the hell they drink!).
Actually, your comparison is not that bad.
Carbs are still incredibly useful, and necessary in certain tasks. I have personally ordered and/or refurbished more than a handful in just the past two years. However these tasks are not ones in which the average member of society would interact.
The closest your average consumer will come to a carb these days will be on their lawnmower or snowblower (depending on where you live....) and if those break they typically take them to the shop for fixing.
The simple fact is that for most consumers, the Full Fat PC Experience is something they simply won't have exposure to. Some will end up requiring exposure to them out of desire or necessity, but they will not be functionally different from the guy who has his own lawnmower. They will use it as a tool and when it breaks either replace it or have it mended at the shop.
Maybe this is a good thing, maybe not - none of use really know - but just like carbs PC's are heading to a future where they will be entirely indispensable for entire segments of the population, but are almost entirely hidden or unknown to a much larger segment of the population.
Karl P
Sold my aging and shagged battery laptop about 6 months ago and bought a new Chromebook with the money, never looked back. nexus7 tablet and a nexus5 phone serve 100% of my computing needs. Missing nothing at all. Life is much simpler infact.
I know Microsoft are keen to pretend i need microsoft office, but i know thats horseshit, google docs is more than adequete for my needs.
I no longer have to concern myself with microsoft security exploits, or data backups, its all in the cloud backed up safe and sound (2 factor authentication of course) and available across my authorised devices. My android devices are secure, i'm not dumb enough to fall for the Android security scare stories, i only shop from the play store and never sideload and all my Android devices are Kitkat 4.4.4. Scare stories from old android versions from years ago are just clickbait.
I take pictures on my phone, they magically appear in my private cloud storage, and available from all my devices. All my music needs are served my the cloud too, again non-microsoft, all my cds are ripped and stored for free online for streaming or downloading to anywhere i choose anytime i choose.
Life is good, no need for Microsofts (usually) inferior and insecure services and products anymore. I see more and more people like myself each day. The traditional PC and Microsofts days are truly numbered. For consumers, Windows 7 was the beginning of the end (a good swansong), Windows 8 was the end of the end.
Even if windows 9 was a free download, i have no use for it. The other obvious alarmbell should be cloud based photoshop, even lowly spec chromebooks can apply complex filters and effects substantialy quicker than any PC locally.
Game over
"Apps=Software"
Yes, and software equals programs, and on and on, BUT, you don't here people saying "Is there a program I can install on device X that can do this?", instead you here "is there an App for that?"
Again, the younger generation.
Everyone knows an app is basically the same as software, only someone with I.A.S. needs to point that out.
One of the skills for surviving in tech over the decades is to identify synonyms.
If you think every new word some marketing guy coins is really a new product you're sunk because you're going to be making bad purchasing decisions or giving bad purchasing advise.
Hence the "elderly" professionals who write this stuff that "young people" use are more reluctant to use the marketing buzz words.
"Everyone knows an app is basically the same as software" waddya mean basically?
Something really irks me about this "is there an app for that" phenomenon. All of a sudden people realise that computers can be made to do useful things by running a program on them. Why has it taken this long to transmit this message to the non techy? Its not like the self explanatory term "application" has only just been coined. Instead all we got was years of:
"ooh i dont understand computers" (and am unwilling to even consider if that would be possible)
"whats the point of that?"
"why dont we just keep using paper?"
And then Apple develops the first useable smartphone ,therefore people have to know how a computer can help them , so in one fell swoop they explain the concept of running a "program" on a computer:
All it takes is a 30 second jingly advert full of hip music and cool kids (and examples of computers being helpful) and repitition of the phrase "Is there an app for that?" and suddenly the world "gets it"
I think we have to thank Apple for that, as , in time , people will realise they can get "apps" on their desktops and laptops too.
"...as customers realised the expense of extended support..."
Oh please, that dribble again. End users (e.g. grandma with her ancient Compaq deskpro) couldn't care less about this. For a lot of people, the real problems with XP are not with XP itself but with outdated (3rd party) antivirus software and that stupid Internet Explorer. All which can be solved by using a decent antivirus package, alternative webbrowser and some common sense.
Firewalls are build into routers/cable- or ADSL-modems these days so these type of users don't cares about Windows build-in software.
Not to mention that quite some machines aren't even connected to the Net e.g. customized robotic-controllers, imagesetting-controllers, corporate print-servers etc...and therefore don't need to be "updated" at all for as long as they keep working.
"At the recent Canalys Channels Forum, HP CEO Meg Whitman ..."
Oh please that bitch again...
The main reason why consumer confidence is gone is because every consumer products manufacturer floods the market with that made in china crapware. And no matter how much sugarcoating and sweet-talking they do. IT IS A FACT that during recent years, when consumer-goods production moved from western world to China, that the quality of these products severely degenerated! And many people are unhappy about this. This will eventually go so far that anti-consumerism will rise up, consumer confidence will fall even faster and more companies will go bust! Leading to further decrease of global welfare (even in those countries like China and India). Not to mention that many humans don't like this haste to change stuff so quickly!
Except for a few individuals like Meg Whitman, Bill Gates etc...
I suspect that what we are seeing is a number of different events. First of all Windows XP expired without really laying and dying for a large number of users. It was still good enough and they had to be pushed, shoved and prodded to move and even then like stubborn mules many are still sat there.
Some moved to Windows 7 where a lot of other users are happy enough to sit hoping that the nasty smell known as Windows 8/8.1 will blow away and that Windows 10 will live up to its initial suggestion of being worth while.
That leaves the mobile devices segment, this is already said to be slowing. Most users who could find a use for such devices now have one so the market will slow. The tablet and complex phones do some things amazingly well, or so I am told. One of them is unlikely to be as long a life as e.g. the old XP machine.
Then we come to the cloud conundrum. For those who have data they mist access from everywhere except from an area with poor access right, e.g. no service or dodgy ISPs), the cloud is wonderful. Do remember that others can and will probably access that data from anywhere almost as easily. I am not so sure.
There may well be kids who can do all sort of wonderful things with all sorts of wonderful toys, it was ever thus. They may continue to do wonderful things in the future, just hope that it is not to continue to lose all those naked selfiies.
With the prospect of a decent new Windows, notice I said prospect not certainty I see a period of continued delay in the market with loads of people continuing to hold off, and yes some might adopt other devices, quill pens anyone?
Yesterday I was scanning several hundred photographs using two desk top PCs. No prospect of using anything else since limited software is on new OSs and 20MB scans need some storage space and it is NOT going to be on the cloud. If and it is a big IF windows 10 has enough support and if the price is reasonable I might upgrade, perhaps even regrade, what I do not need is a mobile 'experience' or a multi-hundred pound portable but not quite in a pocket computer - your mileage may vary.
That is why I am pleased to accept market segmentation and see many others get exactly what they want.
I was almost interested in the new Hudl for £65 just to see if I could find a use for such a beast, but I still cannot see me even getting that much use from out of something like that.
Now I am off out driving, with my 8 year old non touch phone in my pocket - (I hate touch with a real world vengeance), but others are welcome.
I think I totally agree.
You can't use a scooter to do a truck's job. They'll always be desktops and laptops (for the next 10 years anyways, after that who knows, direct connections into the body?).
(Of course it is possible that tablets will grow in size and get physical tactile keyboards and mice or styli so they can do laptop jobs, but then I'd call them laptops.)
The phone and tablet market will mature, but the life expectancy for a phone or tablet is unlikely to get beyond 3 years, due to physical wear and tear. So when it is a mature those 2 markets it will replenish at a faster rate.
The real key to boosting desktop and laptop sales is to come up with something that the prospective customer's current computer cannot do. I just don't see what that could be, other than a good topic for more brainstorming.
"She reckons the industry has “another six to eight months of the XP refresh”, but expects the Windows Server 2003 replacement cycle to be as dramatic. "
I think they're 0 for 2 on this one.
Regarding "another six to eight months of the XP rerfresh", I would venture this may not be that accurate. I'm guessing the remaining XP systems will be replaced over years, essentially as the PCs become unreliable (so I do think "Windows XP refresh will DO NOTHING for lame PC market next year" is accurate, the replacement will be spread out over years so it won't be a big factor in any given quarter) . Those who have not already ditched XP, you'll have a group that just can't be bothered, and I see no reason they'd now decide to change their mind over the next six months (I expect they'll replace machines as they die due to age, i.e. fan failure, hard disk failure, power supply failure, blown caps, or much less likely some other motherboard or CPU failure.) The other group are those who have not replaced an XP system because it has specialized software or hardware that are not 7 compatible, and they don't want to replace the whole lot. When this is limited to a small number of systems, it's feasible to deal with compared to a whole LAN full of obsolete XP systems.
Also, I don't see how the Windows Server 2003 replacement cycle can be as dramatic. Fewer customers each with much fewer systems compared to XP.
re: Windows 2003 replacements
Fewer customers, but higher value, a greater imperative to update and easier to update. The revenue burn will be bright and short.
I for one am pleased at the industry slow-down. It means customers are happy with what they have and aren't putting their hard-earned cash into things which do very little more than what they already do.
Servers tend to be component based, components can be updated separately.
And with servers you're dealing with experts who will evaluate whether the hardware is still good enough and would it be better to just install a new OS.
I think there is a significant chance many/most Windows 2003 servers will be upgraded to later server software. Same physical machine, later OS. (I know this isn't what sales people want to hear, but it is what we'd seriously consider in we had Windows 2003 servers. If it was a close decision as to what to recommend I could probably be swayed by arguments regarding higher reliability/stability, upgrade-ability, or savings in electricity or rack space.)
Merely updating the OS was rarely a chosen path for XP desktops and laptops.
Firstly:
The PC market is a hardware problem. So don't expect to fix it with software.
No good operating system or application can justify replacing a perfectly adequate computer.
If computer manufacturers and OEMs want to sell more computers they need to take a long hard look in the mirror, then get off their butts and start doing the job they're paid to do.
The only thing that can drive computer hardware sales is hardware innovation -- new features that create new machines that can do things current machines can't.
Secondly:
The PC market is a mature market. You can expect tablets and phones to become mature markets over the next couple of years.
You'd better develop business plans to weather mature markets.
People with $1000 to spare are buying modern gaming PCs because they realize that so called next gen consoles are slower than even 2010 vintage high end PCs. The XBOX ONE can in theory run games in 1080p but because of limited video RAM most games are limited to 780p and 30 frames per second. I predict that the sale of gaming PCs will accelerate when the price of a Haswell i7 system with three high end graphics cards capable of running games at 4K resolution and 60fps falls below their current $6000 cost. http://www.cnet.com/uk/products/origin-pc-millennium-2014/
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