'Seas will rise, flood millions of homes' warns Eric Schmidt ecologist

I see a new business opportunity for the Chocolate Factory...

Google Boats!

Move over Richard Branson, Erich Schmidt has just begun to skim the surface...

Move

Google tells me that the IGPCC estimates around 146 million people live less than 1 metre above sea level (a mere 2% of global population). In other words - not a problem, people will move inland as the level gradually rises. For those people who have built a lot of infrastructure close to the sea, storm flooding is always a risk, but really the risk is coming from the storm surges (eg 13m recorded in Australia, 8m for Hurricane Katrina), not from a few mm per year rise. A few cm rise in sea level is just noise on a wave of that magnitude.

If Mr Schmidt is really that worried about low-lying coastal areas, it would be a better bet to just build storm defences like the Dutch Delta Works or Thames Barrier

Sea level rise, what sea level rise?

Apparently sea level isn't rising. Worse, in places like California sea level gauges actually show a fall!

Even the highest IPCC forecast is less than two feet, so how this guy gets his 3-4ft figure is a mystery.

This is big news here in Forida

considering the state is basically a massive flaccid sand-barr hanging off the groin of the continent, just means our flood insurance rates will triple again, for no reason, especially in central florida.

it may mean they have to move the space coast, they said they have some time though, so with the usual skill they show a few months before the worst happens they will panic and build huge levvies (dams) like in holland... but alot cheaper because they will have tendered it out and the lowest bid will win and it will be made wit hthe cheapest possible materials to just about minimum grade standard, give or take the odd bribe) after all it worked for them right? what could possibly go wrong with a part of the world that gets huge hurricanes and massive storm surges? (cough* katrina *cough).

heres mud in yer eye, coz thats all we will have left!

Huh

"The sea level rise taking place right now is quickly making extreme coastal floods more common, increasing risk for millions of people where they live and work," says Ben Strauss

So, those of us in Flyover, America are okay.

You can't really accuse people of alarmism ...

... when you misrepresent their output to make it sound more alarming.

The ranges given in that paper 1.25-10mm p/a over twenty years or 2.5-12mm p/a over forty years. Those appear to match pretty well with the aggregate estimates from the first half dozen recent studies brought up by google scholar. Can you explain why you think they're exaggerated?

The study is also talking about flooding from rare (once per century) flooding events rather than a slow and inexorable rise swallowing up houses. I'm not really sure what's so controversial about that either.

I've no idea where they're going with the estimates of number of houses though. I'm pretty certain the inhabitants of those areas of Florida already realise they live at sea level. That's why they retired to the beach.

Off to build an ark now

I will also try to befriend local sea life

Those who build by the Sea.........

Speaking only for the USA, I am sick and tired of multi-billion dollar insurance settlements for "Hurricane or Flood Victims" who build million dollar "Straw Houses" on beachfront or flood plain property and then rebuild in the same location after every hurricane or flood with money that comes from my ever increasing insurance premiums.

Those who live in island countries deserve respect and consideration since they have no where else to go but we should not be allowing repeated building in flood plains or beachfront properties unless the design for the home considers the natural forces that will inevitably occur.

Islanders build homes on stilts for a reason and the bottom of those homes is above the flood zone.

Building a two story colonial with a basement on low lying coastline is a disaster waiting to happen. Relying on pumps and dikes to save New Orleans is a losing proposition given that hurricanes take out the electricity EVERY TIME.

Those replacement homes need to be designed for 250 MPH Winds and be built at least 20 Feet above the highest flood line.

The same thing applies for Tornado Alley residents. Either move somewhere safe or build to suit the weather. 12" thick concrete walls, plate steel roofs, and bulletproof glass would seem to be a requirement at least for ALL PUBLIC BUILDINGS.

Otherwise you could make the case that your elected officials knew of the danger and potential solutions but neglected to do anything to mitigate it either by changing the building codes or by making public buildings safer.

Obviously, common sense would say the use of trailer homes should not be allowed in most of these areas.

Perhaps those in low lying or island areas ought to consider Houseboats as the best solution short of growing gills.

All of the above is far more reliable than believing the predictions of any "climatologist".

Damn. From now on...

...I'm going to think of him as Eric Schmidtecologist

Sea level will rise...

And in other news, the sky is blue, water is wet, and bears shit in the woods. Sea levels have historically been higher than they currently are, and no doubt will be again.

ostrich, ostrich

Lewis Page is being a ridiculous demagogue. So what if it's 1 meter of sea level rise that inundates 2.3 million homes or 60 cm of rise that inundates 1.7 million homes? It'll be a huge disruption. And he talks about it like it's in the distant future. Kids born today will live to see it. If you live in south Florida, don't bother willing your house to the baby you're looking at in his crib today. Why so skeptical? What have you got to lose by hedging your bets and working energy sustainability into the economy over the coming years. "Oh no! Driving my F-350 to the mall is costing me too much in gas, someone save me by denying anything even remotely like consequences for a hydrocarbon economy!"

Right data, Wrong answer.

The sea level rise data tends to come from the University of Colorado (at a safe 5000 foot elevation) and covers how the geoid is changing. Most of their predicted rise is due to the earth recovering to a more rounder shape as it adjusts from the lack of the ice sheets from the last ice age. The result of that is the seas are going up in lots of parts of the world... as is the land near by and under the seas.

There is a second factor involving sand island which assumes the current land surface area isn't going up with the sea level even though man islands are effectively floating on the same fluid at the ocean is. There are several parts of the world that should have been flooded over ice age cycles yet hold life that has been there and only there for millions of years (like Florida and Pacific islands) so something else has to be going on.

Think of the High Tech Infrastructure at Risk

Many of the major cities in the world are built near tidal water and salty sea water is definitely the most damaging to things electronic.

Visitors to the St, John's River Valley, including as far inland as Fredericton, New Brunswick (Canada) often ask why telephone junction boxes for underground cables are mounted on posts 2 metres high. It is because the floods that occur annually. Now.

Here in Ho Chi Minh City/SaiGon, 30% of the city is vulnerable TODAY from monthly floods that occur when the leap tides happen around. The city is riddled with streams and canals that look innocent enough but when the SaiGon River rises (about a metre) all those benign water courses become THE enemy as water backs up through the sewers and in to homes.

It gives a whole new perspective on flooding.

Added to this is the fact that illegal water extraction by industry is equal to the official water extraction is causing the land mass to slink, as is occurring in Venice.

It's alright laughing at these predictors of gloom but when you can't leave your hotel without risk of literally drowning, t brings the whole discussion real up close.

I live at 4,500 feet ASL in the Central Highlands, so I am OK for a few more years but millions of people would be displaced in VietNam alone even if the water rose 50 centimetres.

Think of London, those flood gates are good only until 2050l and then the water will simply flow around them and flood much of London. New York is particularly vulnerable. The Mississippi already floods annually, damaging millions of acres of land, another metre and you have a serious problem not even the Army Corps of Engineers could conquer.

During the Cold War years communications networks were routed around major population centres, presumed to be nuclear bomb targets, now we better start planning around flood plains.

Note that modern infrastructure makes the developed world *very* vulnerable.

Building a waterproof building is not *that* difficult. It turns out that short concrete posts with slotted concrete panels are quite able to keep water out.

But once the water gets to electricity & *sewerage* systems you've got real trouble.

In short it's a *systems* issue. But if people *want* to keep living at less than 1m above sea level then it's got to be *planned* for. For the extreme cases I quite like the idea of the "floating" house. If services are not disrupted it's simply BAU.

BTW 2 points about NO & Christina. Firstly the levees were described as being built to handle a cat 3 storm, not a cat 5. The old cost/benefit argument. Secondly IIRC the *old* parts of NO recovered fairly quickly. It seems those 18th and 19th century founders built their stuff on the *highest* bits of land, hence the fastest draining.

Having looked at the Nature article this *might* not be a plan of creepy Eric's to bag some decent beachfront property at a knockdown price.

Whenever I read a Lewis article I typically could sum it up thus:

Paraphrase Lewis: "Fuck the planet, I all right jake!"

Ditto for the likes of Clarkson and many commentard on here.

thump! thump! thump!

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Candygram!