back to article Gartner awakens from trance, tells huddled villagers: 5G revenue will almost double to $4.2bn next year!

IT prophesier Gartner has performed its ritual reading of market omens to foretell next year's global 5G network infrastructure revenue. The hype wizards reckon that in 2020 the market will hit $4.2bn, an 89 per cent increase from 2019 revenue of $2.2bn. That leap is largely due to the fact that many countries have only just …

  1. batfink Bronze badge

    Can we have a breakdown?

    It would be interesting to see a breakdown of this figure.

    How much of this $4.2Bn is "revenue" from the cost of rolling out the new infrastructure, and how much of that is actual revenue to operators and companies utilising 5G?

    There's a lot of difference between "Woo hoo! The rollout of 5G is a $4Bn industry!" and "Woo hoo! Taking advantage of 5G is a $4bn industry!".

    I remember (back in the Good Old Days) the Telcos bitching and moaning about the cost vs revenue of data across 3G and 4G. 5G is going to be expensive for them to roll out as well. Will this be profitable or just a loss leader? Unfortunately I'm not working for a Telco at the moment so can't see any cost models...

    1. DougS Silver badge

      Trough of disillusionment

      We've finally passed the 5G hype cycle, and people are realizing they aren't going to get multi gigabit connections everywhere on the go like we kept hearing about a year or two ago. Now we read articles about 5G tests showing speeds no better than LTE, or a few street corners where if you face the right way you can get multi gigabit speeds but if you turn around you are on LTE. It is funny to read all the complaints from tech writers who really expected the 5G hype to be real!

      So give it another year and we'll see articles about "5G finally ready to take off with the release of the iPhone 12", as if there will be a lot of people who have been waiting to buy new iPhones just to get 5G. But you might start seeing actually usable 5G in big cities by then, where you can walk around and maybe even go inside a few buildings and stay connected. They are going to need a TON of cell sites in the mmWave bands to make it work, that deployment won't happen quickly.

  2. caffeine addict Silver badge

    [Obligatory "decent 3G would be nice" comment]

    Has anyone looked in to how accurate these Gartner figures turn out to be?

    1. Wade Burchette Silver badge

      Somewhere in between 0% and 0.1%. Probably on the lower end of that range.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      "Has anyone looked in to how accurate these Gartner figures turn out to be?"

      While I'm sure there is a method to Gartner's forecasting, I would strongly suggest that giving the paying customers what they want to hear is a key part of that method.

      Which prompts the question, who are the paying customers? Fortunately they usually offer the Gartner reports or at the very least their favourite quotes to the public.

      And sometimes, telcos dreams do come true. Whether that is an indicator of accuracy or just dumb luck is another question...

  3. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    I can't see this happening, in their numbers have they taken into account people with an irrational fear of odd numbers because I can't for the life of me work out where they got the rest of this analysis it from? If I had to guess though I'm going with mystical druid runes blessed by the happy tears of bankers.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      At a guess, the numbers come from telcos budgets for projected investment and are being released to reassure the public and possibly the regulators that 5G infrastructure is just around the corner.

      Just past the public toilets, mind the dog poo by the park, take the second street on the right and keep walking...

  4. Pascal Monett Silver badge
    Trollface

    "Gartner has performed its ritual reading of market omens"

    I think Gartner needs to change sacrificial animal. Maybe switch from chicken to duck ?

  5. IGnatius T Foobar !

    Why does anyone still listen to Gartner?

    Why does anyone still listen to Gartner? For decades, pointy-haired types have been paying big bucks for Gartner to say (in way more words) "current trends will continue". When a real shift is afoot, Gartner is the last to recognize it. It seems the real purpose of Gartner is to give people CYA when their decision-making causes local oblivion - they can say "Gartner advised us that this trend would continue so we invested in it".

  6. Kevin McMurtrie Silver badge

    Steady ahead

    I predict that everyone - providers, telco customers, and phone buyers - will eventually be more realistic about 5G and treat it as an ordinary evolutionary equipment update. It's not like there's a new magical surge of money coming in to replace everything now. Nobody will see big benefits from using debt to speed up the transition.

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