"China is always open for talks but it would fight to the end should a 'trade war' break out"
Already has mate. Keep up.
China today signaled that it’s in no mood to roll over and play nice in the ongoing trade war with America, promising instead to "fight to the end." Last week’s decision by President Trump to further increase import tariffs on Chinese goods was followed up yesterday by a national emergency proclamation engineered to, …
yes, suppliers for the U.S. (in China) might have to face competition from other countries where the wages aren't quite slave-wages, and the the local gummint does NOT own the businesses [and grant special favors/breaks/whatever for the oligarch that owns/runs it].
The USA (and probably most of the rest of the world) will see a minor hiccup in their economy, if anything at all. Some prices will go up a bit. Suppliers and manufacturing in "other than China" will pick up the slack and get contracts China companies WOULD have had. That's pretty much what will happen, yeah. Looking forward to it! I know all too well what they're doing over there [having seen an example of a violated copyright/patent product made from stuff being made their under contract for a U.S. company, and that "4th shift" component that looks as if it were made from a plan created using X rays on the finished product, complete with the company logo etched into it - an OBVIOUS plagiarized clone!]
"Percentage of sales to China:
Skyworks Solutions - over 80% (RF related)
Qualcomm - over 60% (SoC and modems)
Xilinx and others are suffering as well."
Trump could cover the cost of all losses and still be up. The Chinese have been screwing us for years and Trump has quite rightly realised that when they sell us far more than we sell them that we are in a much stronger position.
I appreciate this may not be a popular opinion, but I sort-of agree with what Trump is doing here. Can I quickly point out that I DO NOT agree with him on anything else!
China has been taking the piss for decades. They DO steal technology from other countries (mostly European and the US), they DO have an atrocious human rights record, and maintain a prison-like country. China is very dangerous; they are trying very hard to lay claim to most of their part of the world, and they're generally not very nice.
We in the 'west' (I have to admit, I hate that term) have been pouring money into China for years. Just so we can have cheap shiny iThings mostly. It's been a brain-dead stupid policy on our part. And China has been busily using that money to construct an enormous military, bully its neighbours, and (oh, here we go again) generally not be very nice.
And all this exporting of work to China has caused our own manufacturing industry to fall somewhat flat.
Maybe I agree with Trump for different reasons to him. I'm not sure. And I'm sure what he's doing is certainly impacting the average person in the US. But if the end result is that it stimulates some home-grown manufacturing (and yes, of course, this takes years and years, but you have to start somewhere), and cuts off the huge money and technology transfer pipe to China then maybe it's what is needed to level things out a bit.
I have to admit I am probably with you on this one.
The problem is that Trump is doing the right thing in the wrong way. As someone stated earlier, the tariffs themselves are not the end of the world, the industry will adapt after a somewhat painful period and overcome the difficulties by either finding elsewhere cheap to move to or bring back activity.
The problem is the uncertainty. Will he keep these tariffs for 10 years thus making the move worthwhile or will he change his mind in the next tweet, thus making it possible to "ride it out"?
I am sure the man is not stupid, however much I disagree with him, but he certainly is not a stable person with a coherent policy. That may be good to put his adversaries on the back foot during negotiations but it's causing havoc to anyone wanting to plan 5, 10 or 20 years ahead.
But if the end result is that it stimulates some home-grown manufacturing
You are aware that there are other countries in Asia that have low wages, an eager workforce ? If anything, production might switch to other Asian countries, not sure that human rights track record is any better, though ...
China getting pissy about fair access to markets is laughable and the media continually miss this point.
Export a container of Widgets from Crapola Inc., Shenzhen to the US and get it cleared instantly with zero or minimal import duties.
Export something similar from Redneck Supply Co., USA to China and find your product cannot be cleared because you do not have 15 licenses that are impossible for a foreign company to acquire. If it does get cleared have fun paying double or triple digit tariffs.
I am 110% behind free trade, when free trade is free trade. Not one party having complete access to western markets while other parties have extreme restrictions against reciprocal imports.
If I buy a PC, here in Europe it is probably "manufactured" in Ireland.The expensive parts are mostly manufactured in Chine by Foxcom. But the bits are assembled in Ireland for Dell /HP and so it gets a CE mark. Ireland is not putting a Trump tax on the Intel chip manufactured in China.
If my Cisco switch assembled in India has silicone from a Chineses fab plant, it still can have that backdoor. It only makes security sense if the silicone is fabed in the USA. It only makes economic sense if the Trump tax is exported to any country selling into the USA.
China saw the impact of the USA blockage of the Japanese colonial empire - and the resulting shooting war starting with Perl Harbor. The US Military is bigger now. Bigger than USSR, China, UK , France and German militaries combined. They can not do a Perl Harbor to break a blockade.
The whole Belt and Road project is China setting up to deal with this kind of treat from the USA.
It is not a Western democracy China does not need to keep the electors sweet.
This is maybe their chance to push the USA out of the way. Much as the USA pushed the British empire out of the way.
Actually at least 11 million Chinese died in WW2 which started long before Pearl Harbor. We call it the 1939-45 war here, the US calls it 1941-5, but it actually began with the Japanese invasion of China and the German invasion of Czechoslovakia. From the Japanese point of view Pearl Harbor was just an attempt to keep the US out of their war.
The US has the military but the landmass that includes China, the RF, India, Africa, the ME and Europe has the population and the markets. China is now going to go for European-Asian-African cohesion against the US.
In WW2 the more intelligent US generals isolated Japanese islands and left them to "wither on the vine" while the stupid generals tried to conquer them regardless of cost, leading to tragedies like Okinawa. It seems the Chinese have learned the lesson: leave the US to wither, turn the resources elsewhere.
I am not sure you got the point I was making. President Roosevelt blocked trade and froze assets in July 1941. Perl Harbor was the Japanese miltary response in December. That did not end well for Japan.
So China has made plans to survive any blockage without starting a shooting war with the USA. They have built islands to defend trade routes. They bought into European ports. They have invested in overland routes. They even run regular trains to the UK.
I'm no friend of Trump or the Clintons, but view any moves against China's massively favoured foreign trade position as being a good thing.
Bill Clinton bears a lot of responsibility for increasing trade with China and off-shoring a lot of industry there, mouthing the fatuous idiocy that China getting richer would promote democracy. That has been shown up as the cynical lie it always was a thousand times over.
How would politicians and their lapdog media organsisations react if any other country were to be allowed to subsidise its exports with FREE SHIPPING to markets charging minimal if any import duties, but all the while imposing very high tariffs on imported goods?
Apparently, all it takes is bribery with badly made cheap crap, produced by people living as slaves in a country that is an oppressive nightmare of toxic waste and pollution for populations the world over to accept this calumny.
I'm frequently disappointed by and sceptical about what happens here in the UK, and also the US, but I am very glad not to live under the rule of Beijing. Maybe it's time we started thinking about the importance of that.
"Bill Clinton off-shored a lot of industry to China."
It's called capitalism.
More significantly than some petty trade spat with China, it will result in the environmental destruction of the planet. Apparently with the blessing of most people in the west. Until it affects them, when it will be too late.
It's literally costing the earth.
It always amazes me how short term people are when they do not naturally support an idea. Everywhere else that democracy has arisen has taken centuries, all of a sudden if Clinton can't get it on an unstoppable bandwagon within a decade or two the plan is unworkable.
Make China rich, and its people will demand more rights. That is already happening, and the Chinese government have that particular tiger firmly by the tail - forced to continue growing the economy or face disruption.
We need China in the tent, we need USA in the tent. Share clean tech, work together. That way the global economy may not be entirely swept aside, and loss of life may be kept to the 100s of millions when the environment bites back.
The current trade war, and the ignorant posturing that goes along with it is not heading us in the right direction.
Economies have been entwined for so long they've developed symbiotic entanglement that when ripped apart is going to kill them. The internet is going to splinter and balkanise. We'll have Chinese fibre carrying Chinese packets through Chinese switches for Chinese citizens to promote Chinese social harmony by monitoring and preventing spreading of false rumours and malicious lies especially about the Party or Party officials or the Party account of history or why democracy is so dangerous. And the AI arms race is almost here, when finally enough people on the levers of power wake up enough to realise how bad it will be if the *OTHER SIDE* gets it first and research goes dark and self contained within these lovely segregated isolated bubbles that want to pop each other SOOOOO bad because otherwise they will pop us. >.<
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