back to article Surprise! VAT, customs likely to get a bit trickier in a Brexit no-deal world

A week after the UK's taxman unveiled an exciting new system for modernising its existing processes, the government has published papers describing what might happen in the event the UK tumbles out of the EU next year without a workable deal. Custom declarations in a no-deal world In what should really come as a surprise to …

  1. Warm Braw Silver badge

    Possibly engaging a customs broker

    If the volume of export declarations is going to increase by roughly a factor of 5, you'll have to marry one - and soon.

  2. Ken Moorhouse Silver badge

    UK VAT Return

    Just highlighting one single example of how disruptive this will be:-

    The boxes relating to EU transactions will need to be stripped out (2, 4, 8, 9). Will the remaining boxes (pun unintended) be renumbered after the event (as they were when they were originally added)?

    Everyone's VAT quarter will straddle the changeover date and will need to account for VAT differently for transactions after the changeover, unless HMRC intends to allow the cutoff to be extended, then calculating a notional apportionment for the latter period.

    I haven't seen any changes to the wording yet eg, "VAT due in periods prior to 30 March 2019 on acquisitions from other EC Member States"

    Accounts software vendors will be rubbing their hands with glee in anticipation.

    Accounts software programmers will be groaning at the changes.

    1. Thought About IT

      Re: UK VAT Return

      Any form of Brexit will bring with it a mountain of extra red tape and costs for business. How can this be, you ask, when the Brexiteers promised to slash it? Simple: when they say "red tape", they mean worker and environmental protection and no exposure of their assets in tax havens. Snake oil salesmen, the lot of them!

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: UK VAT Return

        amazing that such an incorrect and partisan and unpleasant post should get so many reccomendations.

      2. organiser

        Re: UK VAT Return

        Brexiteers were only complaining about EU red tape. UK red tape is alright.

    2. Roland6 Silver badge

      Re: UK VAT Return

      >The boxes relating to EU transactions will need to be stripped out

      Maybe, however in the short-term expect them to remain as this is both the path of least change and thus maintains compatibility with existing financial systems such as Sage. Also by maintaining this separation, HMRC can more easily monitor EU27 VAT reporting and receipts, leaving room for further changes in the way VAT works for EU27 transactions.

    3. VinceH Silver badge

      Re: UK VAT Return

      "The boxes relating to EU transactions will need to be stripped out (2, 4, 8, 9)."

      (Without having a return to hand to look at, so from memory...) If box 4 is removed, no businesses will be able to claim back any VAT on expenditure. I think it's just 2,8,9 that directly relate to cross border EU trade.

      1. Ken Moorhouse Silver badge

        Re: UK VAT Return : VinceH

        My error. Apologies

    4. katrinab Silver badge

      Re: UK VAT Return

      Boxes 2, 8 & 9.

      You pay the import VAT by declaring it in box 2. You claim it back if allowable in box 4. But you claim all allowable VAT on purchases in box 4, not just EU purchases.

      Sage, or whatever you use, will need to be updated, yes. But also, you will need to change the tax codes you use. Tax codes T4, T7, T8, T22, T23 & T24 (if you are using Sage, there will be equivalent tax codes in other programs) will no longer be valid, and you will probably have to use T0 and T1.

  3. John Smith 19 Gold badge
    FAIL

    "selected group of importers"..given access to make "certain types" of declarations,

    And in line with the "testing" of the Universal Credit system they will be the simplest cases with the smallest number of transactions to the fewest number of countries.

    Which will then be used to prove the system "works".

    Why can I still hear a funny little voice going "We wants it. we wants it" ?

    And remember financial services is still about 3x bigger than any physical exports to the EU.

    "No deal" on those and the UK tax base is very seriously f**ked. The businesses will simply relocate most of their operations to Dublin/Frankfurt/Paris depending on the language skills of their staff and living costs.

    1. Grikath Silver badge

      Re: "selected group of importers"..given access to make "certain types" of declarations,

      A number of financial services have already opened up shop in Amsterdam...

      Any cloggie worth his/her salt is anywhere from well-versed to fluent in english, and quite often also in a major secondary and/or tertiary language. Translation/intermediary services in almost any imaginable language are readily available, if you're not too fussy about "appearance" there's a ton of office space vacant, and you're sitting right on top of two fat international digital pipes, one of which goes straight to London.

      What's not to like?

      1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
        Thumb Up

        A number of financial services have already opened up shop in Amsterdam...

        Good point.

        I guess I'd always figured Frankfurt and Paris as the big Continental financial centres, and somehow I got the idea Amsterdam is a bit crammed.

        But yes, closer to London, good comms, high probability of English language speakers and a refreshingly low key but hostile attitude to the Germans.

        What is not to like?

    2. Laura Kerr

      Re: "selected group of importers"..given access to make "certain types" of declarations,

      "And in line with the "testing" of the Universal Credit system they will be the simplest cases with the smallest number of transactions to the fewest number of countries."

      Hey, I'm sure they'll at least have done a thorough stress test, where the devs all log in simultaneously one Friday afternoon and confirm that the system comes up.

  4. 89724102172714182892114I7551670349743096734346773478647892349863592355648544996312855148587659264921

    Try claiming back VAT from Godaddy (they claim some arm is based in the EU) - it doesn't work. P.s. Namecheap don't charge VAT.

    1. Roland6 Silver badge

      >Try claiming back VAT from Godaddy (they claim some arm is based in the EU)

      Don't they provide a VAT receipt, which will have the business address of the arm with which your transaction was actually registered against.

      1. VinceH Silver badge

        I suspect what he means is that because they are supposedly registered in the EU, but in a different member state than the customer, they should be able to accept the VAT registration number of the customer and charge net - the VAT is deducted at source.

        But, presumably, they aren't doing this. And if they don't, it complicates reclaiming the VAT - you can't deduct VAT from a different member state on your UK VAT return; only UK VAT charged at the UK rates.

  5. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    the UK will no longer be part of EU-wide VAT IT systems, such as the VAT Mini One Stop Shop (MOSS), which allows VAT to be reported and paid in the home member state. A failure to reach an agreement will mean traders will lose this convenience.

    Hmm, not sure 'convenience' is the right word here, at least not for the small consumer.

    In the pre-EU days, when I (living in France) bought something from the UK (i.e. from Maplin) it was either shipped ex-VAT, and left up to me to declare it (probably no-one did, of course), or shipped witrh UK VAT paid. Once the EU and MOSS came in, the UK supplier then had to charge French VAT on the sale. Not only more complex for the supplier, but it means that when I buy books from Amazon UK I have to pay 5.5% French VAT, instead of 0% UK VAT on them.

    1. Rakkor

      "Not only more complex for the supplier, but it means that when I buy books from Amazon UK I have to pay 5.5% French VAT, instead of 0% UK VAT on them."

      But surely that's how it's supposed to work, the consumer pays the relevant level of tax associated with their place of residence.

    2. Ken 16 Silver badge
      Trollface

      Convenience is exactly the right word

      There will be a touching cloth moment when people realise it's not available.

  6. jmch Silver badge
    Coat

    Na na na na na na na VAT man!

    Call me a pedant, but if that's supposed to mirror the theme song to Adam West's "Batman", you're missing a 'na'.

    I'll get my batcloak -->>

    1. Paul J Turner

      Re: Na na na na na na na VAT man!

      "Sixteen sodium atoms walk into a bar followed by Batman."

      You could Google it, but probably don't need to.

      1. A. Coatsworth
        Pint

        Re: Na na na na na na na VAT man!

        @Paul J Turner

        Was going to upvote you, but you have exactly 16 votes now. So have one of these instead

  7. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    This Train Wreck is getting interesting

    I'd better order in some supplies of Popcorn before it gets rationed or Tariff'd out of existance.

    I fully expect inflation to go up to 10% within 15 months of BREXIT. That is the price we will have to pay for freedom and £350 Million/week to the NHS (sic).

    Go on downvote away. There will be very little to smile about in a years time if the [redacted] in Brussels has its way.

    1. J.G.Harston Silver badge

      Re: This Train Wreck is getting interesting

      Why would we put tarrifs on things we want to buy?

      That is how tarrifs work, you know. The importing country's government forces importing consumers to pay more than they otherwise would.

      1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: This Train Wreck is getting interesting

        "Why would we put tarrifs on things we want to buy?"

        I think you're missing the OP's point; you're certainly missing the article's. Just handling the bureaucracy on imports, tarrifs or no, is going to impose direct costs. The time taken to get stuff through the procedures is going to impose delays and very likely lead to shortages. With shortages you get price rises.

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: This Train Wreck is getting interesting

        >Why would we put tarrifs on things we want to buy?

        You puts tarriffs on things to increase the cost of imports and protect your own industry. Not putting tarriffs on EU imports, means that you can't put tarriffs on non-EU imports (WTO rules) for the same products. This in turn puts a price squeeze on all UK producers, who have to reduce prices or go out of business. This leads to pay cuts/job losses, and a smaller economy. The £ drops as a result, making imports more expensive, but less affordable with all the job losses and pay cuts.

        The affected sectors of the UK economy then go into a tail spin while consumers buy imports. According to Professor Minford, the most likely casualties are manufacturing and farming.

        1. nsld

          Re: This Train Wreck is getting interesting

          Unilateral tariff reduction when the UK drops all inbound tariffs to 0% whilst having no workable trade deals on the 30th of March is the brainlesschild of Economists for Brexit.

          Outside of any trade deals you cannot selectively drop tariffs for only some countries, its all or nothing under most favoured nation (MFN) rules.

          It will have several effects, the first being that UK exports (mainly high value, lower demand luxury items) increase significantly in cost along with all of our farming exports (sensitive area for tariffs!)

          End result, you can buy a few things a bit cheaper possibly (depends on the collapse of the £) whilst agriculture and manufacturing in the UK are wiped out as they can't compete with ultra cheap imports and they can't export.

          And before all you brexidiots scream Project Fear, the death of UK agriculture and manufacturing is part of the Minford model used by Economists for Brexit! Apparently they can all retrain in 'digital'!

          1. itzman

            Re: This Train Wreck is getting interesting

            tariffs are placed on imports.

            Only a brainless remoaner would therefore conclude that the cost of exports will rise.

        2. John Smith 19 Gold badge
          Unhappy

          According to Professor Minford, the most likely casualties are manufacturing and farming.

          Funny, he seems to be in complete agreement with the Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board impact assessments.

          In the worst case Brexit scenario only pig farming is left standing.

          Everything else is road kill.

          Still, that's Natures way, isn't it, unless the government continues the entire CAP system, with its associated costs.

          BTW New Zealand is often touted as a possible no subsidy model for UK farming.

          It's GDP is bigger than Iran and smaller than Romania.

        3. Grikath Silver badge

          Re: This Train Wreck is getting interesting

          "You puts [sic] tarriffs on things to increase the cost of imports and protect your own industry."

          Of which the UK got preciously little left to begin with......

        4. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: This Train Wreck is getting interesting

          you aren't allowed to tax farming imports selectively.

          But you can subsidize farming selectively.

    2. LewisRage

      Re: This Train Wreck is getting interesting

      >if the [redacted] in Brussels has its way.

      It's not the [redacted] in burssels that are the problem surely, it's the [redacted] sons of [redacted] mother[redacted] [redacted] [redacted] tory [redacted] [redacted] [redacted]'s in westminster that we should be worrying about 'getting their way'.

    3. John Smith 19 Gold badge
      Unhappy

      "There will be very little to smile about...time if the [redacted] in Brussels has its way."

      You're right about the smiling.

      You're wrong about the source.

      The British did this to themselves (with the help of one Australian advertising guru and a load of illegal campaign funding and illegally acquired FB profile data)

      1. Christian Harten

        Re: "There will be very little to smile about...time if the [redacted] in Brussels has its way."

        Isn't this a pretty severe indictment of democracy itself, blaming the results of a vote solely on successful campaigning? It always comes across as somewhat elitist - anyone who doesn't share my opinion was obviously manipulated.

    4. fruitoftheloon
      Stop

      @AC:Re: This Train Wreck is getting interesting

      AC,

      err, why will inflation be going up to 10% within 15 months?

      Just wondered...

      Jay

  8. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Can anyone

    give one clear example of how we'll be better off after brexit? Not corporations or the mega rich, an advantage for the average Joe?

    1. Giovani Tapini

      Re: Can anyone

      No. Because there aren't any.

      its the national equivalent of burning down the house because we don't like the wallpaper in the lounge...

      Given there is a remote possibility that I may be wrong, maybe my grandchildren that have yet to be, can look forward to some benefits...

    2. jaywin

      Re: Can anyone

      You've obviously missed all the usual suspects recently changing their lines from "we'll be better off out of the EU" to "nobody said we'd be better off financially". Not even the arch-brexiteers think average Joe is going to have a better bank balance as a result of this debacle (them, on the other hand, are going to see a nice big payday - and not fall foul of the new EU financial regulations that come in 2019 - strange that...).

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Can anyone

      You got rid of the Polish Plumber!! You regained control!!! No more Bruxelles-defined beet bottles sizes!!!

      Now, for the Bengali Grocer and the Indian IT operator...

      1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

        Re: Can anyone

        "Now, for the Bengali Grocer and the Indian IT operator..."

        India have already said that any trade deal with the UK will be dependant on better access to the UK for Indian producers and workers. If anything, Brexit will increase immigration from other parts of the world. The anti-immigration crowd are going to be sorely disappointed by this influx because many of those immigrants are going to be much more visible to the knuckle-draggers than your average EU citizen.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Can anyone

          "dependant on better access to the UK for Indian producers and workers"

          Same goes for Turkey, with whom our government are currently discussing a post-Brexit deal - just as well nobody mentioned anything about a "flood" of Turkish immigrants during the referendum debate.

          Of course all of the doom-and-gloom refers to the "instant Brexit" option, i.e. no withdrawal agreement and no time to negotiate trade deals with, err, anyone ( historically such deals take several years to agree, but that assumes both parties insist on protecting their own national interests ). This option also requires a hard customs border in Ireland, since the UK will be importing food and other items which are banned in the EU on safety / health / fair competition grounds.

          1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

            Re: Can anyone

            I don't really like Turkey, can we do a free-trade deal with Chile and the Sandwich Islands?

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Can anyone

        Polish plumbers OUT! Bengali plumbers IN! And Indian nurses. And Philippino meat-factory cheap labour. And carrot pickers... yes, a real poser this one, where do we get cheap carrot pickers out of the EU?! Perhaps the Ukrainians will oblidge? They should be happy to be allowed to live on UK minimum wage with luxurious camper accommodation UK farming industry is world-famous for. And once the carrots are done, they will FUCK OFF and if they don't, we'll force-march them to the nearest cargo barge and send them to Russia or wherever they came from. Done it before, you know.

        p.s. and, in a few years' time, when we feel threatened by those Bengali plumbers that breed like rabbits, we can, I dunno... exit WTO. Yeah, that's it! And think of all them billions we save and give each month to NHS!

    4. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

      Re: Can anyone

      give one clear example of how we'll be better off after brexit?

      A lot depends on whether you think the EU and Eurozone will survive the next few years. I suspect the Eurozone will go first, with Greece & the like crashing out & inflation/exchange rates suffering, followed by rising unemployment (already much higher than in the UK). A post-Brexit UK will have some chance to avoid the fallout.

      It's always hard to come up with concrete predictions for the future, but some thoughts? On the "big is not better" basis:

      - We can set up trade deals that benefit us, and not be told what tariffs/taxes to charge to benefit someone else.

      - Our future isn't tied to a one-size-fits-noone economic model.

      - We don't have to send billions a year to be spent by someone else on what they think is good for us.

      - We can deport undesirables (hate speech preachers, for example) without the ECJ telling us that we have to keep them because deportation would spoil their family life.

      - We can avoid bureaucratic red tape that is deliberately written in an overcomplex way so as to avoid offending 28 countries that all have a diferent take on things.

      All of those could have good or bad outcomes, of course, but that's the cost of freedom, you get to make your own mistakes. Some people don't want to risk that, of course. It's the general question: do you want a peaceful life of mediocrity doing what you're told by someone else (i.e. still living at home when you're 35) or the chance to control your own life (make your own mistakes, sure, but also earn your own successes). Maybe it'll be good, maybe not, but personally I'd prefer the freedom to choose myself. The past 25 years have shown that the EU empire is just a money pit that consumes our taxes, and the best it can show for it is essentially trivial "victories" like mobile phone roaming. Do we really need a huge staggering political behemoth that can't even decide where to make it's HQ, just to achieve that? If we don't leave, we'll never know.

      It's the same situation for any country that gets independence from an overly-controlling master. The first years are painful and difficult, but most manage to come out better in the long run if people are willing to put the effort in. Look at how most ex-British Empire states are doing now, despite the protestations from imperials at the time that they were throwing away their place in something wonderful.

      1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: Can anyone

        "It's always hard to come up with concrete predictions for the future"

        And yet the whole Brexit argument is based on alleged predictions which, on your own admission, must be non-concrete.

        There a few real gems in your list:

        "We don't have to send billions a year to be spent by someone else on what they think is good for us."

        This is what governments do. e.g. we, as UK taxpayers, send billions a year to the NHS to be spent by someone else, NHS trusts, on what they think good for us.

        "We can avoid bureaucratic red tape that is deliberately written in an overcomplex way so as to avoid offending 28 countries that all have a diferent take on things."

        Did you read the article at all. It deals with the new bureaucratic red tape that has to be introduced as replacement for the existing lack of bureaucratic red tape involved in transactions with what is currently our home market.

        And I'll leave you to reflect on the leverage we'll be able to exert in setting up these trade deals that will benefit us with some selfless but unidentified countries that won't be wanting trade deals to benefit themselves.

        1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          And yet the whole Brexit argument is based on alleged predictions which, on your own admission, must be non-concrete.

          As are the doom & gloom Project Fear ones from remainers. The OP asked for some reasons Brexit could be a good idea, I'm an optimist so I offered a few possibilities. It'll be 5-10 years before we really know the answer, but now we havce a chance to change things.

          This is what governments do. e.g. we, as UK taxpayers, send billions a year to the NHS to be spent by someone else, NHS trusts, on what they think good for us.

          Very true, and it's always a question of boundaries. UK tax money being spent on UK citizens by a UK government elected by UK voters is the boundary we're familiar with, and accept. Europe's huge strength is in its differences, the fact that not every country thinks the same way. Trying to have money from all of Europe collected by an unrepresentative central EU government and spent across all of Europe on issues that European people see very differently just doesn't work.

          It deals with the new bureaucratic red tape that has to be introduced as replacement for the existing lack of bureaucratic red tape involved in transactions with what is currently our home market.

          What it really does is put the EU in the same position as all the other countries we deal with, with the same red tape that apples to them. Not new red tape, the same red tape covering a larger area. Yes, it means more work for people and companies which only deal with EU countries, just as a purely UK company will have to allow for more red tape if it expands to, say, the US. It's the cost of freedom of access to a wider market. Will it pay off? I think it can, but we'll have to wait and see.

          The alternative of saying "we'll only ever shop at Tesco because I can walk there and I'd have to get a bus to go all the way to Waitrose" isn't one that appeals to me. Maybe you're willing to accept limited medocrity of choice in return for an easy life, I'm not.

          And I'll leave you to reflect on the leverage we'll be able to exert in setting up these trade deals that will benefit us with some selfless but unidentified countries that won't be wanting trade deals to benefit themselves.

          Why would it be so one-sided? Good deals should benefit both sides, provided they have the freedom to negotiate freely. Today we have to accept deals that the EU feels will benefit the EU, even if they don't work for us or other members. Why is that preferable?

          1. Reaps

            Re: Can anyone

            @phil o'idiot

            "It'll be 5-10 years before we really know the answer, but now we havce a chance to change things."

            lol, even your lord and master Moggy has said it will take 50years minimum. (if ever)

            dumb ass

            1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

              Re: Can anyone

              dumb ass

              You're repeating yourself, but I'm not the one who forgot to tick the AC box this time... :)

          2. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

            Re: Can anyone

            "I'm an optimist so I offered a few possibilities"

            The first part of your post was based on "A lot depends on whether you think the EU and Eurozone will survive the next few years. I suspect the Eurozone will go first," which is essentially pessimistic in nature. This is your Project Fear.

            1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

              Re: Can anyone

              which is essentially pessimistic in nature. This is your Project Fear.

              Oh, I don't know about that. Countries abandoning the Euro and going back to their own currency seems quite an optimisic idea.

      2. phuzz Silver badge

        Re: Can anyone

        - We can deport undesirables (hate speech preachers, for example) without the ECJ telling us that we have to keep them because deportation would spoil their family life.

        Only if there's no deal, otherwise it's unlikely we'd leave the ECJ.

        I never saw the bother myself, let the fucker say what he wants, as long as the government don't do anything daft like make a martyr out of him, oh wait.

      3. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

        Re: Can anyone

        "Look at how most ex-British Empire states are doing now, despite the protestations from imperials at the time that they were throwing away their place in something wonderful."

        So, Making UK Great Again should only take 3 or 4 generations? Wonderful!!

      4. nsld

        Re: Can anyone

        - We can deport undesirables (hate speech preachers, for example) without the ECJ telling us that we have to keep them because deportation would spoil their family life.

        =======

        That sounds brilliant, except its total and utter bollocks of the highest order.

        Firstly, wrong court, the ECJ doesn't rule on individual human rights cases, thats the ECHR, not a part of the EU and we will still be signatories to that.

        Secondly, the UK routinely deports lots of people, or denies entry to them but human rights laws will still apply after Brexit

        Thirdly, its ignorance like this which explains why the country is doomed. Weapons grade stupidity isn't an assett!

        1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          "- We can deport undesirables (hate speech preachers, for example) without the ECJ telling us that we have to keep them because deportation would spoil their family life."

          And fourthly we can't deport any of those who are home grown. (A pity, however, that prosecutions for treason have become unpopular.)

      5. nsld

        Re: Can anyone

        We can set up trade deals that benefit us, and not be told what tariffs/taxes to charge to benefit someone else.

        ====

        Have you read CETA or EU Japan?

        Guess what, before either can do trade deals with the UK they have to be assessed and approved to do so by the EU, thats part of the deal for any deals with near neighbours outside SM/CU/EFTA. Its a reciprocal right as well so before the EU does a deal with the UK it has to consult with and seek approval from existing FTA holders. This is why the whole 'easiest deal' crap is just that, crap

        Which one of the 759 FTA's, MRA's and BTD's do you think can be improved for the UK?

        I won't hold my breath waiting for your carefully researched answer...........

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Can anyone

          before either can do trade deals with the UK they have to be assessed and approved to do so by the EU, thats part of the deal for any deals with near neighbours outside SM/CU/EFTA

          Yet another reason why the EU empire has to die, and the sooner the better. It makes Trump look free and democratic.

      6. Patrician

        Re: Can anyone

        "- We can set up trade deals that benefit us, and not be told what tariffs/taxes to charge to benefit someone else."

        So negotiating a trade deal as one small island will get us better deals than negotiating as a member of a 27 country trading block? Not sure how you'r working that one out.

        "- We can set up trade deals that benefit us, and not be told what tariffs/taxes to charge to benefit someone else."

        Not sure how our economic model is any different, nor why we would want it to be different, from other EU countries?

        "- We don't have to send billions a year to be spent by someone else on what they think is good for us."

        <sigh> this old debunked claim - all going the the NHS is it instead?

        "- We can deport undesirables (hate speech preachers, for example) without the ECJ telling us that we have to keep them because deportation would spoil their family life."

        I agree with the above but not sure the EU ever stopped us doing this anyway.

        "Look at how most ex-British Empire states are doing now, despite the protestations from imperials at the time that they were throwing away their place in something wonderful."

        I'm not sure flag waving ex-colonies that are riddled with corruption and poverty is a good example to be honest.

      7. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        "I suspect the Eurozone will go first, with Greece & the like crashing out"

        EU and the Euro could survive Greece crashing out - what they could not probably survive is Italy crashing out - and the new government is working hard to create such conditions. Their motto looks to be Milton's "Better to reign in Hell, than serve in Heaven". The problem is just when you end up being a serf in Hell...

        Still Germany and its main allies could "retire" into a smaller "union" with a shared currency. It will be the countries left out that will have to face high inflation, devaluation, and unemployment.

        It would be still the most powerful economic block in Europe, and would dictate a lot of its rules anyway. And in many ways, with less ballast on board, they could become even more powerful.

        To influence deals, power is needed, and the less power you have, the more you'll have to accept someone else's terms. Countries like China or India will probably dictate their terms...

      8. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Can anyone

        @phil o'idiot

        "Look at how most ex-British Empire states are doing now"

        yeah Zimbabwe are doing real well....

        what a dumb ass..

        1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          @phil o'idiot

          "Look at how most ex-British Empire states are doing now"

          yeah Zimbabwe are doing real well....

          what a dumb ass..

          I do love the intelligent debate you get here. Let me guess, you voted remain?

          You think one example of failure disproves the whole theory? Take a look at the other ex-colonies, those in commonwealth and those not.

        2. Pen-y-gors Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          The parlous state of Zimbabwe is due to the greed of a few (Mugabe and friends) rather than an underlying weakness.

          Fifty countries have become independent from Britain since 1945. Not a single one has asked to be re-colonised.

          Malta is another example

          In January 1959, The Times published the following: “Malta cannot live on its own ... the island could pay for only one-fifth of her food and essential imports; well over one-quarter of the present labour force would be out of work, and the economy would collapse without British Treasury subventions. Talk of full independence for Malta is therefore hopelessly impractical.”

          Malta is now a full member of the EU, using the Euro. It has the 31st highest per-capita GDP. (Just behind Spain, and almost exactly the European average)

          1. organiser

            Re: Can anyone

            "Malta is now a full member of the EU, using the Euro. It has the 31st highest per-capita GDP. (Just behind Spain, and almost exactly the European average)"

            They also have a budget surplus, and is in the Schengen area, effectively refuting any claims that "an island nation can't be in Schengen."

      9. Zippy´s Sausage Factory

        Re: Can anyone

        A lot depends on whether you think the EU and Eurozone will survive the next few years. I suspect the Eurozone will go first, with Greece & the like crashing out & inflation/exchange rates suffering, followed by rising unemployment (already much higher than in the UK). A post-Brexit UK will have some chance to avoid the fallout.

        Funny how all the Brexitards now have the "imminent collapse of the EU" as the new shiny main reason for Brexit.

        The alt-right have been predicting the imminent collapse of the EU to happen in a couple of months on a regular basis since 2008, from what I remember. So far it hasn't happened. Predicting's so hard when it involves the future, isn't it?

        1. codejunky Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          @ Zippy´s Sausage Factory

          "The alt-right have been predicting the imminent collapse of the EU to happen in a couple of months on a regular basis since 2008"

          To be fair so has the EU presidents and member governments. Getting their latest excuse in before it happens. Although those predicting the crash of the Euro were correct, but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed countries instead. Alan Greenspan of the Fed couldnt believe the EU would inflict such harm on its own population.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

            What do you believe would happen if the Euro collapses? The sacrifices asked till now would pale against the Venezuelan-like crisis some southern European countries could find themselves in, while they try to sustain their huge debt with a new currency that devalues by the hour, while rich people move hard currency abroad, and states probably adopt measures like forced loans in an attempt to sustain debts.

            Countries with good export like Italy, but which needs raw material imports to feed its manufacturing industry, would see prices skyrocket.

            Germany and some neighboring countries would see some of its export shrink, and see unemployment raise, but they would be nowhere near the disaster the very countries that created the Euro problem because of the lax policies and high debts would incur.

            Wasn't one of the reason UK got out "not paying for other countries"? Nor Germany was willingly to pay fully for other countries reckless debts, without any warranty things were going to change.

            Many in the US loathe the Euro because they fear one day it could impinge the dollar supremacy. It's the same reason why people like Trump look to have more issues with EU than Russia. But as the US debts is going to become larger and larger, even printing dollars one day could not be enough...

            1. codejunky Silver badge

              Re: "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

              @AC

              "What do you believe would happen if the Euro collapses?"

              They go back to their own currencies. The poorer members devaluing which improves their economic situations and unemployment problems so they can recover. The rich members currencies firing off to their realistic values too reducing their exports but making their people much richer. If done orderly it could be done without causing further rifts in Europe.

              "Venezuelan-like crisis"

              Only for socialists. If their country vote socialist that is what they will get. It isnt a shock. If they dont turn socialist (and why would anyone want to?) they would recover pretty well. Hopefully before the next business cycle recession hits their country.

              "Nor Germany was willingly to pay fully for other countries reckless debts, without any warranty things were going to change."

              The ECB is bailing out the rich member banks over Greece. The lack of fiscal transfer is one of the nails in the Euro coffin. Thats why it crushed economies. And it would be reckless lending as well as reckless debts. The interest rate being the reward value used to assess the risk of no repayment.

              "Many in the US loathe the Euro because they fear one day it could impinge the dollar supremacy"

              And that the Euro is a financial danger and was close to a global financial disaster.

              "But as the US debts is going to become larger and larger, even printing dollars one day could not be enough..."

              I wont argue against that. The government shutdowns were a warning in my opinion.

              1. Anonymous Coward
                Anonymous Coward

                Re: "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

                "They go back to their own currencies. The poorer members devaluing which improves their economic situations"

                Wishful thinking - especially when they need to buy raw and non raw materials abroad to run their factories. The supply chain today is very different than fifty years ago. You may not have the needed local production any longer, and you won't reinstate it quick enough when skills are gone, or were never available. While far cheaper labour is now available elsewhere. They could just enter a stagflation spiral - where wages start to value nothing - while debt soars as politicians tries to keep the plebs calm.

                "Only for socialists."

                Venezuela problem is not "socialism" - is "populism". We've seen the same effects in right-wing populist approaches, i.e. Argentina. Many of this kind of "leaders" just use what suits them best, and can even start "socialist" and become "fascist", or vice versa.

                But maybe you're among the one who think Denmark is a "socialist" country and at the same level of Venezuela?

                "The ECB is bailing out the rich member banks over Greece."

                There were mistakes in handling Greek crisis, and big banks had too much influence. Still, you can't really ask countries that try hard to keep the balance right to keep on paying for countries that are going bankrupt not because unavoidable crisis, but because of reckless spending and widespread corruption and dishonesty. Greece faked data to enter the Euro. Italy debt was too high, and it was promised it would have been reduced - it never happened.

                But sure, you have to rein in your own financial system when it tries to take advantage of bad countries problems.

                1. codejunky Silver badge

                  Re: "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

                  @AC

                  "Wishful thinking - especially when they need to buy raw and non raw materials abroad to run their factories."

                  The problem currently screwing the Euro is Germany needing a much stronger currency but cant, exporting so much to poorer members who need a weaker currency and the workers move from poorer to richer leaving poorer members even poorer. The plague of the Euro is screwing up countries who are over and under valued by the Euro but dont transfer that money from richer to poorer.

                  From the recession a decade ago Greece would likely be fine years ago after defaulting on some of those loans from the rich members and devaluing the currency. The Euro stopped that so the total debt was bought by the EU taxpayer but the ECB couldnt afford to take the loss so Greece is stuck paying debts it cannot afford to people who shouldnt have been repaid.

                  "Venezuela problem is not "socialism""

                  Sorry but no. The problem with Venezuela is socialism. Their version of the same destructive process that has done the same in other socialist countries.

                  "and can even start "socialist" and become "fascist""

                  As the National Socialist German Workers Party demonstrated that is not much of a distance. And as the National Socialist German Workers Party got on well with the communists of Russia until Germany invaded there really wasnt that much distance between them.

                  "But maybe you're among the one who think Denmark is a "socialist" country and at the same level of Venezuela?"

                  Nope there is a considerable difference between Denmark and Socialism. The PM of Denmark publicly corrected Bernie supporters that Denmark is not socialist.

                  "There were mistakes in handling Greek crisis"

                  No kidding. Everything learned throughout a long history of economics the EU didnt just not do the right things but have actively done the wrong things.

                  "Still, you can't really ask countries that try hard to keep the balance right to keep on paying for countries that are going bankrupt not because unavoidable crisis, but because of reckless spending and widespread corruption and dishonesty"

                  Yes you can. Especially when the money was borrowed from the private sector but the ECB chose to take on the debt making it the EU's problem. So it is on the EU to look after the EU members for forcing them into that position. The private banks being repaid are the ones in the Eurozone.

                  "Italy debt was too high, and it was promised it would have been reduced - it never happened."

                  Italy has not had growth since joining the Euro. Which is the discussion of the recent crisis.

                  "But sure, you have to rein in your own financial system when it tries to take advantage of bad countries problems."

                  That could have been a useful approach with the Greek crisis. And would have been the approach if known economics would have been applied.

                  1. LDS Silver badge

                    Re: "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

                    "Germany needing a much stronger currency but can".

                    Germany doesn't need it. Germany competitors would like it so its export power is diminished, while exporting to Germany would become easier.

                    "poorer members who need a weaker currency"

                    Nobody was forced to join the Euro, and it had clear requirements. Countries like Sweden and Denmark didn't join it.

                    Many countries were actually greatly helped by the Euro because it kept foreign materials and goods prices acceptable, for example when oil prices were far higher, and reduced interests on debt at far lower levels. Just, countries like Greece and Italy thought they could gamble it, and reap the benefits without abiding to the rules.

                    Weak currency only help labour-intensive low-added-value industries. Those which now already moved to Far East, or to countries outside EU rules like Moldova. With wages and costs so low you can't really compete, but maybe with the Bolivar.

                    "The problem with Venezuela is socialism."

                    China is communist/socialist. It doesn't have the same issues of Venezuela, although it's an authoritarian regime as well. Other South American countries were some variant of right-wing ideologies and had the same issues. What about socialism in Western Europe? Or for socialism, you, like many US people, mean "communism"?

                    " The PM of Denmark publicly corrected Bernie supporters" Fox journalists

                    "Especially when the money was borrowed from the private sector"

                    The situation was much more complex, and anyway, who buys state debts? - and even US had to bail out its banks to avoid a catastrophic crisis and economy collapse, after very bank-friendly politicians created the conditions for a perfect storm. And there was the fear of a contagion, if other countries thought it was advantageous. It was partly mismanaged, sure, and there were some will to "punish" Greece, which should have been handles in a different way.

                    "Italy has not had growth since joining the Euro."

                    Italy was growing too slow or not at all before joining the Euro, and its problems predates the Euro. The debt exploded in the '80s, and actually the Euro made it easier to keep it at lower interest rates. Currency devaluations in the '80s and '90s gave only brief relief, while aggravating systemic issues and reducing purchasing power. In 1992 the Lira underwent a speculative attack, and the government in panic took 0,6% from every bank account in the night. Really great times!!!

                    One of the biggest Italian problem is "Magna Grecia", the southern regions where corruption, public money waste, pollution, tax evasion, illegal employment and unemployment, organized crime are long standing issues never resolved - and also created the debt and the high taxation. Not really the Euro.

                    Just, it's far easier to blame the Euro, especially when politicians are a product of that very corrupt and inefficient system, and have no will to change it.

                    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

                      Re: "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

                      >The problem currently screwing the Euro is Germany needing a much stronger currency

                      The whole point of the euro was to weaken the German currency (so it could export German goods)

                      And to give the poor countries a stronger currency so they could borrow money (to buy German goods)

                      And incidentally because they think it's immoral to make money from currency trading rather than engineering

                      1. LDS Silver badge

                        "The whole point of the euro was to weaken the German currency "

                        You should know the history: the Euro was one of the conditions France, then lead by Mitterand, required to allow for German reunification. That would have tied what could become a much stronger Germany to Europe. Germany, like England and the Pound, wasn't very happy to get rid of its strong and appealing Deustche Mark.

                        A weak currency helps only exports of low-quality, low value products with a lot of competition. When your products are high-quality, high-value ones, with little or no competition, they are far less tied to currency fluctuations.

                    2. codejunky Silver badge

                      Re: "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

                      @ LDS

                      "Germany doesn't need it."

                      Yes it does. Unless of course you are against floating currencies? Germans are made poorer by having a currency so undervalued. Although if you are happy with their currency being kept artificially low then you must be ecstatic that the UK pound fell legitimately.

                      "Nobody was forced to join the Euro, and it had clear requirements. Countries like Sweden and Denmark didn't join it."

                      Although to join the EU you must now be willing to accept the Euro. It is one of those requirement things that increases the desperation of remainers because the UK wouldnt vote to rejoin and accept that currency.

                      "Many countries were actually greatly helped by the Euro because it kept foreign materials and goods prices acceptable"

                      Screwing up economies by enforcing a single currency structure on differing economies doesnt work. Shockingly this was pointed out by us 'eurosceptics' when some idiot (blair) wanted the currency here and we were dismissed. And of course we were right. And the currency which was predicted to fail did, but instead of wrapping it up and accepting the failure of the project countries were sacrificed. High unemployment and being so far behind the recovery is not a good thing.

                      "Weak currency only help labour-intensive low-added-value industries"

                      Why are currencies exchange rates different? What is it that makes floating currencies change in relation to each other and why is it a good thing? Answer that and you remove the dream that the euro is good.

                      "China is communist/socialist. It doesn't have the same issues of Venezuela, although it's an authoritarian regime as well."

                      China is communist/socialist? Just because a democratic republic is called so doesnt make it so. China was socialist, the moving away from such is the reason they are now so much better off. Why is Venezuela in a similar situation to China under the socialist regime. Socialism. Yes China is still authoritarian and socialism practically requires authoritarianism. China has been there and have been moving away from it.

                      "What about socialism in Western Europe?"

                      Where? The wall came down between east and west germany and the difference is there. Do you mean the nordic model where Denmark is insulted at being called socialist?

                      "The PM of Denmark publicly corrected Bernie supporters" Fox journalists"

                      Vox is left wing isnt it? https://www.vox.com/2015/10/31/9650030/denmark-prime-minister-bernie-sanders

                      "even US had to bail out its banks to avoid a catastrophic crisis and economy collapse"

                      And they did, and we did, and the EU instead sacrificed Greece to prop up rich member banks. That is the difference, that is the problem.

                      "and there were some will to "punish" Greece, which should have been handles in a different way."

                      I am happy you accept the reality that there was will to punish Greece (some people shy away from that part). And it should have been handled a different way. Instead of being handled using the economic wisdom of centuries the EU did the opposite and crushed Greece. Actively screwed up Greece and continue to.

                      "The debt exploded in the '80s, and actually the Euro made it easier to keep it at lower interest rates"

                      So it is the euro's fault that it wasnt harder to borrow money thereby making the debt situation worse? The interest rate is to make it easier or harder to borrow and when debt it a problem you dont want them to borrow more (they cant repay).

                      "One of the biggest Italian problem is "Magna Grecia", the southern regions where corruption, public money waste, pollution, tax evasion, illegal employment and unemployment, organized crime are long standing issues never resolved - and also created the debt and the high taxation. Not really the Euro."

                      If they are so bad then why are they such an important part of the EU? Surely giving these people a currency which will encourage them to take on more debt and become a financial threat to the eurozone is a bad thing?

                      "Just, it's far easier to blame the Euro, especially when politicians are a product of that very corrupt and inefficient system, and have no will to change it."

                      That oddly sounds like the very thing us brexit voters are opposing.

                      1. LDS Silver badge

                        Re: "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

                        "Germans are made poorer by having a currency so undervalued. "

                        LOL! They don't need to convert it in an hard currency like countries with a weak one always under the risk of depreciation, so they aren't made poorer. Germans purchasing power is higher than in UK.

                        "Although to join the EU you must now be willing to accept the Euro."

                        Willingly, and only when your economy is in order. In 2002, nobody was forced to adopt it back then.

                        "Screwing up economies by enforcing a single currency structure"

                        Only economies with systemic troubles had issues, because they refused to tackle their systemic issues. Euro and other circumstances like low oil prices gave a very effective window to do that. Instead politicians preferred crony spending to buy consensus. Brexit was also a simple way to buy consensus, but not surprisingly, when it happened, the rats left the boat, because they didn't know how to manage it.

                        High unemployment was an Italian issue well before the Euro, and most of it is in the southern part which economy has been very weak for centuries. In the North unemployment is at 6.9%, in the South at 19.4%.

                        Sure, they shouldn't have been allowed in the Euro until the issues were fixed, but Italy was a EU founding member, and Greece was the "birthplace of democracy, philosophy, etc."....

                        "Why are currencies exchange rates different?"

                        Because currencies are different. Still currency exchange rates don't say everything about an economy - their fluctuations do, and fluctuations are not always positive, and can create issues, especially when you are trying to establish a common market. That's why Europe started to stabilize fluctuations well before the Euro.

                        "Just because a democratic republic is called so doesnt make it so."

                        Sorry, China is a communist country, albeit with its market variation. The socialism of Chavez/Maduro is the populist version so common in Latin America.

                        "Vox is left wing isnt it?"

                        It was Fox to compare Denmark to Venezuela - showing that they are so afraid of "foreigners" they don't even travel abroad.

                        "The wall came down between east and west germany and the difference is there."

                        It looks you know very little about Europe. Spain and France has been run by Socialists. German Social-democrats are socialists, and there are many other socialist parties in other countries, often part of the governing majority. And no one ended like Venezuela, not even Greece - even if Pasok is a socialist party, albeit a different one compared to German SPD.

                        Again, when you say "socialist" you mean "communist", especially the Soviet version. East Gemany was communist, just like China, not socialist.

                        In some part of the world like US, for lack of knowledge, they may be synonyms, but they aren't.

                        "EU instead sacrificed Greece"

                        US sacrificed its own citizens... to save a few bankers. Anyway Greece was in dire troubles, and sacrifices were inevitable, even if the crisis was managed better. You can't really keep on paying retirements to unmarried daughters, or let people evade taxes at will.

                        "it is the euro's fault that it wasnt harder to borrow money thereby making the debt situation worse"

                        Sure, it's better to borrow at higher interests, let speculation kill you, be unable to get hard currency, and soon default for not being able to repay the debt.

                        But actually there's a little truth in what you say - Euro shielded countries like Italy from their systemic problems until the 2008 US-born crisis exposed them fully. Without the Euro, they would have gone into a crisis well before. And remember - it's always the common citizen that pays the price of a default.

                        "If they are so bad then why are they such an important part of the EU?"

                        It looks again you know very little about Europe and its states. Just because the North is at the same level of Germany. Italy is a founder member of EU, don't forget. You could find this chart instructive:

                        https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Gross_domestic_product_(GDP)_per_inhabitant_in_purchasing_power_standards_(PPS)_in_relation_to_the_EU-28_average,_by_NUTS_2_regions,_2015_(%25_of_the_EU-28_average,_EU-28_%3D_100)_MAP_RYB17.png

                        Also, unlike US for example, Italian private debt is low, and savings high. So, they know the Italian government can get the money if needed, even if it means like in 1992 applying sudden taxes in the nigh. Selfish, true.

                        "That oddly sounds like the very thing us brexit voters are opposing."

                        From what I see, UK politicians are no better... and even the populist anti-EU politicians are a product of the same system - i.e. ready to hoard EU money as long as they fill their pockets - in Euro of course, not some weak currency...

                        1. codejunky Silver badge

                          Re: "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

                          @ LDS

                          I debated responding to this because I am not sure we are going to agree on facts, never mind opinion. I will give it a shot.

                          "LOL! They don't need to convert it in an hard currency like countries with a weak one always under the risk of depreciation, so they aren't made poorer. Germans purchasing power is higher than in UK."

                          Why is Germany who is doing so well (we both agree) and so strong currently undergoing QE? Because the countries who need a weaker currency need to devalue and QE is their only option in the shared currency. ECB lowers the Euro (QE) to support the weaker members and the member who needs a stronger currency (Germany) is being flooded with stimulus and dragging up the Euro (to the detriment of weaker members). Otherwise you would be arguing for QE and stimulus in a boom! Madness.

                          "Only economies with systemic troubles had issues"

                          And were added to the single currency area. Why add something that will screw up the currency and almost destroy the Euro area?

                          "High unemployment was an Italian issue well before the Euro"

                          So you blame the Greeks for what happened in Greece and you blame Italy for what happened in Italy. Why on earth did the EU let them join the Euro? Why allow them into the currency union? And why couldnt either country react to the financial crisis as they should do in such a recession (the answer to the last part being the Euro currency union).

                          "Still currency exchange rates don't say everything about an economy - their fluctuations do, and fluctuations are not always positive, and can create issues, especially when you are trying to establish a common market."

                          Bingo. The Euro area doesnt work because it imposes a single currency without the fiscal transfers over too large an area. Basically different economies needing different exchange rates forced into a single currency that doesnt fit. That is the entire problem you have been arguing against above. So Germany is undervalued and the weaker states overvalued and so there is high unemployment and wrecked economies while adding stimulus to a booming economy.

                          "Sorry, China is a communist country"

                          Sorry but you can repeat it all you want but you are wrong. Feel free to go do some research, its easy. Allowing private business, foreign investment, not all state run nor enforcing socialism, it is capitalist. It is authoritarian (that we agree on) but by allowing/pushing capitalism it is capitalist. As when it was pushing socialism it was socialist.

                          "It was Fox to compare Denmark to Venezuela - showing that they are so afraid of "foreigners" they don't even travel abroad."

                          I like that this is such a problem for some people. It must be those evil right wingers! It couldnt possibly be the good and nice lefty getting it wrong. I sourced a lefty news outlet as they are more likely to want to show Bernie in the best light. I dont give a damn that fox also calls them socialist, I am amused 'it must be them over there' who said it. It shows the fanatical problem.

                          "and there are many other socialist parties in other countries, often part of the governing majority"

                          Eh? So you equate a socialist party as a socialist country? Surely it is the actions of socialism/capitalism which defines the type not the name. As I tried to explain to you before- "Just because a democratic republic is called so doesnt make it so".

                          "Again, when you say "socialist" you mean "communist"

                          Are you telling me the Venezuelans are commies? I know they are socialist but I didnt think they were commies. Communism being a version of socialism. N.Korea moved to its own version of socialism too. I think your looking for a success story you can call socialism so willing to stretch the meaning to do so. Or you dont know what socialism is.

                          "US sacrificed its own citizens... to save a few bankers."

                          That booming economy growing well after it bounced out of recession. Vs-

                          "Anyway Greece was in dire troubles, and sacrifices were inevitable"

                          Pensions, healthcare, employment, etc. Did anyone wonder why they marched calling Merkel hitler?

                          "Sure, it's better to borrow at higher interests, let speculation kill you, be unable to get hard currency, and soon default for not being able to repay the debt."

                          Sorry but you hit the deck there. Greece cant repay. Physically impossible. And instead of defaulting on some of it, paying what they can and by now would likely be alright they are trapped in an overvalued currency owing the full amount which they cannot pay but cannot default or haircut because its owed to the EU taxpayer to bail out rich member banks. Euro has screwed countries, if you are not convinced of this you are obviously not following the situation.

                          "Without the Euro, they would have gone into a crisis well before. And remember - it's always the common citizen that pays the price of a default."

                          You mean with less debt as the problem wouldnt be covered up and the interest rate would be real thereby reducing the problem. Going back to exchange rates are there for a reason and the Euro proves it necessary to have them.

                          "And remember - it's always the common citizen that pays the price of a default."

                          See Greece no healthcare because of the Euro because they couldnt take normal actions against the recession.

                          "From what I see, UK politicians are no better"

                          That is the perfect argument. If the UK gov is so bad (wont argue) then how does sticking another just as bad or worse gov above it help? It doesnt, it makes things worse.

                          "and even the populist anti-EU politicians are a product of the same system"

                          Do you know why the populists get elected? its because they are actually offering something popular! Just think about it- some of the worst, racist, nationalist, backward parties in Europe scoring incredible increases in votes because the bellends who try to dictate participation of the EU are wrong. People reject it. It is not something people want. Because the EU is worse! Otherwise they wouldnt all be voting that way.

                          "in Euro of course, not some weak currency"

                          I laughed so hard at that one- https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/price-shock-when-the-swiss-national-bank-unpegged-the-swiss-franc-from-the-euro

                    3. organiser

                      Re: "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

                      "Nobody was forced to join the Euro, and it had clear requirements. Countries like Sweden and Denmark didn't join it."

                      Denmark has, like the UK, an opt-out. Sweden has an obligation to join whenever it fulfils the requirements. Sweden has always fulfilled the financial requirements and the only thing holding them up is their unwillingness to make the necessary constitutional changes. With a rapidly depreciating currency, there is now an increasing interest in doing so.

                      Denmark on the other hand has pegged their currency to the euro within a narrow 2.25% range.

                  2. organiser

                    Re: "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

                    And likewise:

                    The problem currently screwing the Pound is London needing a much stronger currency but cant, selling so much to poorer regions who need a weaker currency and the workers move from poorer to richer leaving poorer regions even poorer. The plague of the Pound is screwing up regions who are over and under valued by the Pound but dont transfer that money from richer to poorer.

                    Also, Germany doesn't "export" to other EU members. Exports is when goods cross the EU Customs Union border. Anything within is is just an "intra-EU transfer", no different from England selling to Scotland (aside from VAT treatment).

              2. organiser

                Re: "but instead of ditching the plague of a currency they sacrificed"

                There are no "own currencies" to go back to. They will most likely instead set up one or two new common currencies and join them. See ECOWAS.

          2. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Can anyone

            @codeBunky

            "Alan Greenspan of the Fed"

            You really want to bring that pillock into play? the dumb fuck installed by the dumber fuck "BUSH"

            who did :

            The easy-money policies of the Fed during Greenspan's tenure have been suggested by some to be a leading cause of the dotcom bubble and subprime mortgage crisis, which occurred within a year of his departure from the Fed, and have, said the Wall Street Journal, "tarnished his reputation."[7][8] Yale economist Robert Shiller argues that "once stocks fell, real estate became the primary outlet for the speculative frenzy that the stock market had unleashed".[9]

            Not forgetting the "trickle down" crap that has never worked...

            He fucked americans over for generations...and trumpy boy decided to copy the idiot..

            wouldn't trust you to code 2+2

        2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          The alt-right have been predicting the imminent collapse of the EU to happen in a couple of months on a regular basis since 2008, from what I remember. So far it hasn't happened.

          The alt-right?? It's been predicted much more widely than that, but as you say the EU still stumbles along from one crisis to the next, while anti-EU feeling grows steadily (I saw the first "vote for Frexit" posters in France recently!)

          Predicting's so hard when it involves the future, isn't it?

          Yes, which is why I said as much. I'd still rather take a chance that we can do better than sit on my hands assuming it'll all be OK.

          1. Hans 1 Silver badge
            Boffin

            Re: Can anyone

            I saw the first "vote for Frexit" posters in France recently!

            Marine Le Pen lost the presidential debate, actually, it killed her party so she had to rename it ... she was one of two Frexit backers in the election, the French seem to be a little wiser than Brits because they listened to arguments on both sides ... result: the whole Frexit idea has been generally accepted as economic suicide.

            Brexit means a lot of business is leaving the UK for France, The Netherlands, and Germany, so we're all happy campers, here! For us, Brexit means a nice influx of highly skilled, highly paid jobs!

            I doubt the posters you saw were less than a year old, all worn out ...

            NB: I happen to live in France ...

    5. codejunky Silver badge

      Re: Can anyone

      @AC

      "give one clear example of how we'll be better off after brexit? Not corporations or the mega rich, an advantage for the average Joe?"

      So far cheaper food as importing from outside the EU is considerably cheaper than while in it. That is a benefit to everyone.

      Not having the reserve pool of workers is increasing wages, particularly at the bottom. We have full employment but more workers can be easily imported so wages stayed stuck.

      We can bin dumbass laws for example we dont need to fine a guy for not littering!

      More inflation increases the base rate (we can get rewarded for saving again!), house prices stalling wage rises.

      EU recycling targets can be scrapped so the many colours of bins to send waste to China who is now giving up on sorting and recycling it (costs too much) making our lives more productive.

      1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: Can anyone

        "EU recycling targets can be scrapped so the many colours of bins to send waste to China who is now giving up on sorting and recycling it (costs too much) making our lives more productive."

        Great idea. We can all squat on our own shit heaps.

        1. codejunky Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          @ Doctor Syntax

          "Great idea. We can all squat on our own shit heaps."

          Dont burden yourself with the effort to respond if you are not going to read what you are replying to. You even quoted the entire thing! Reread and come back if you have any questions-

          "EU recycling targets can be scrapped so the many colours of bins to send waste to China who is now giving up on sorting and recycling it (costs too much) making our lives more productive."

          1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

            Re: Can anyone

            "EU recycling targets can be scrapped so the many colours of bins to send waste to China who is now giving up on sorting and recycling it (costs too much) making our lives more productive."

            What do you think happens if we scrap recycling targets? We dump more stuff in landfill, that's what happens. See squatting on our own shit heaps.

            China's stopping taking stuff is certainly a problem that needs to besolved but you're conflating two separate issues.

            1. codejunky Silver badge

              Re: Can anyone

              @ Doctor Syntax

              "What do you think happens if we scrap recycling targets? We dump more stuff in landfill, that's what happens"

              Well done thats 2+2=4. Whats the problem? And why is that worse than sending it to others who then landfill it because recycling costs too much? They prefer to do something productive instead of sorting rubbish for pittance, because currently that is what it is worth.

              "China's stopping taking stuff is certainly a problem that needs to besolved but you're conflating two separate issues."

              And why did China stop taking stuff??? See above. As for holes in the ground to stick it we are approximately neutral, making as much rubbish (a little less) than the size of the holes we make digging stuff out of the ground.

            2. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

              Re: Can anyone

              >China's stopping taking stuff is certainly a problem that needs to be solved

              UK leaves Eu, can renounce all Eu environmental protection rules

              UK has a large amount of unproductive land from which it is difficult to commute to London (aka the North)

              The same land has a large number of unemployed unskillled workers

              The UK is a lot closer to the Eu than China is

              I think I see a cunning plan to fund Brexit ......

            3. Robert Sneddon

              Landfill = green

              A lot of waste material is plastic derived from oil or natural gas. Landfilling it would be better then the usual alternative of burning it as a "renewable" energy source and dumping the resultant CO2 into the atmosphere. Paper and cardboard is also a source of CO2 if burned and would also be better landfilled.

              Sure the paper and plastic would eventually rot underground to produce carbon-rich gases like CO and maybe CH4 but it would take hundreds or even thousands of years for that gas to develop and escape into the atmosphere.

      2. BigSLitleP

        Re: Can anyone

        Amazing, every word of your post is wrong.

        Food prices are increasing and will continue to increase.

        Most workers outside the EU tend to be technical in nature, such as plumbers, engineers and doctors. This is not a pool of workers we can replace.

        Most of the "dumbass laws" are actually complete works of fiction, such as the 80 page document covering what a lettuce should look like

        Inflation isn't going up because of our stalled economy. That isn't going to improve once Brexit hits.

        House prices are inflated and have been kept artificially high due to government schemes such as "help to buy"

        The recycling targets are covered by the Paris agreement, which we won't leave when we leave the EU because we are not monsters.

        Every single point you made is fictitious, which is exactly the problem with the whole "leave" campaign. Built on bullshit and bought wholesale by anti-EU idiots.

        1. codejunky Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          @ BigSLitleP

          "Amazing, every word of your post is wrong."

          Watch and be amazed

          "Food prices are increasing and will continue to increase."

          Well done, you have just tripped over the remainers argument being demonstrated- we are still in the EU. We cannot dump the EU tariffs which make food more expensive until we are out. We are not yet out so yes it is more expensive, until we leave.

          "Most workers outside the EU tend to be technical in nature, such as plumbers, engineers and doctors. This is not a pool of workers we can replace."

          Except doctors etc come under skills we need so accept world wide including from the EU. That wont change. However low skilled work will likely need a temporary season work permit. The evidence being that lower skilled work is having to increase their wages or plan automation to replace the workers it wont have. Real world beats theory.

          "Most of the "dumbass laws" are actually complete works of fiction, such as the 80 page document covering what a lettuce should look like"

          And some dumbass laws should only be a work of fiction but are real. Such as fining someone for not littering (the example I gave) directly due to EU law.

          "Inflation isn't going up because of our stalled economy. That isn't going to improve once Brexit hits."

          It first went up due to the stimulus of our overvalued currency falling. We are economically between the US and EU. The US bounced out of recession and has a booming economy. The EU is still pumping increasing amounts of stimulus and is in a dire position. We bounced out of recession and this is the boom period for us too. If it doesnt feel like it, well we are still in the EU.

          "House prices are inflated and have been kept artificially high due to government schemes such as "help to buy""

          Not going to argue with that. Which is why higher inflation leading to higher interest rates cools that down. I think Osborne and Carney got that right even if they tried to sell it as a bad thing (the very thing the BoE and Treasury have been trying to do since 2008 and still are).

          "The recycling targets are covered by the Paris agreement, which we won't leave when we leave the EU because we are not monsters."

          EU recycling targets are set so the countries that can landfill dont get a competitive advantage over those who cannot landfill. Aka dumb down to the worst performer in the class. The idea that those who oppose stupidity are 'monsters' may make sense to those who fear monsters.

          "Every single point you made is fictitious"

          You really are hoping nobody fact checks this aint you? And just assumes your bull is true.

          1. BigSLitleP

            Re: Can anyone

            Amazingly, you didn't actually "fact check" anything i said, just came back with opinions.

            Every economic body is pointing to the economy being worse after brexit, including the government.

            Recently, we had doctors from India turned away due to our immigration poilicies.

            The white van man getting fined was due to a local council law and had nothing to do with the EU, no matter what the anti-EU webshite article you posted says.

            Higher inflation will not help cool the housing market as there are not enough houses to go round

            I'll say it again, recycling is set by the Paris agreement and we will still have it after brexit. Most of our recycling does not leave the country either, so your original point was stupid.

            Just to clarify, every single point you made was wrong. You didn't refute a single point of mine or back it up with evidence. You can carry on with your anti-EU nonsense but brexit is going to cause financial pain to any member of the working class.

            1. codejunky Silver badge

              Re: Can anyone

              @ BigSLitleP

              "Amazingly, you didn't actually "fact check" anything i said, just came back with opinions."

              That is probably why I said you are hoping nobody fact checks this. Because I am willing to be proven wrong but you will be.

              "Every economic body is pointing to the economy being worse after brexit, including the government."

              That kinda depends. Osborne and Carney argued that the aim of the BoE and Treasury since 2008 would be achieved, not that they worded it that way. Some predict recession after brexit, just as we had the prediction of after the vote and then the excuse that it would be after art50. 2 predicted recessions 0 materialised, so now its a nebulous 'after we leave'. Plenty of reports showing we would be worse off if we apply maximum WTO tariffs or even keep the EU ones.

              "Recently, we had doctors from India turned away due to our immigration poilicies."

              That would be an interesting read. Can I see the source?

              "The white van man getting fined was due to a local council law and had nothing to do with the EU, no matter what the anti-EU webshite article you posted says."

              So the EU law which he was fined for is nothing to do with the EU. The article even quoting the freaking law you claim isnt the cause. Oh the big swinging testicles.

              "Higher inflation will not help cool the housing market as there are not enough houses to go round"

              That is a good portion of the problem, the planning laws do make it more difficult and expensive to build the housing required. But higher inflation leads to higher interest rates which does reduce the price of housing because people cant buy it if they cannot afford it.

              "I'll say it again, recycling is set by the Paris agreement and we will still have it after brexit. Most of our recycling does not leave the country either, so your original point was stupid."

              The EU targets. EU targets. E freaking U. Hope the repetition helps.

              "Just to clarify, every single point you made was wrong"

              Yet again you really do seem to hope nobody will fact check you. I have no such concerns. I am willing to be proven wrong but so far you are crying off my supporting evidence with your opinion that 'everything I said is wrong'. Anyone can say that, but I will let people check your claims and mine and make their own minds up.

              "You can carry on with your anti-EU nonsense but brexit is going to cause financial pain to any member of the working class."

              Oh no this is a class warfare thing? Why didnt you just go with 'think of the babies!'? What is the financial pain of the Eurozone at the moment? The EU currency still in a dire situation? That is financial pain and that is the supertanker we have hitched this country to. It is in multiple crisis with its presidents and members making excuses for the breakup of the Union every time something happens. If they have no faith in it why should I?

              1. BigSLitleP

                Re: Can anyone

                Once more, with feeling:

                Every economic expert disagrees with you. I'll take their advice over yours.

                Doctors refused due to immigration policy: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jan/23/doctors-blocked-by-home-office-from-taking-up-vital-nhs-jobs It was all over the news, but i guess the mainstream media is full of propaganda for project fear, amirite?

                The Paris agreement was not "EU targets". It literally has nothing to do with the EU. It's a worldwide agreement. It was signed by individual countries, including the UK. Learn to read.

                The white van man got fined for breach of this: https://www.gov.uk/waste-carrier-or-broker-registration

                Nothing to do with the EU.

                You seem to see everything as the EUs fault, which is why brexiteers are so god damn useless. You may as well change your name to "bloody foreigners".

                1. codejunky Silver badge

                  Re: Can anyone

                  @ BigSLitleP

                  "Every economic expert disagrees with you. I'll take their advice over yours."

                  Ok. I Will listen to Mervyn King when he pointed out Carney and Osbornes doom scenario was the recovery they are still working toward. I will ignore 'experts' who assume we will continue with EU tariffs as it would make no sense to do so. Even less credible would be an 'expert' who's analysis was of maximum WTO tariffs as that would be even more economically suicidal.

                  "Doctors refused due to immigration policy"

                  Cheers for that. I dont remember seeing that back in January and it was an interesting read. I spotted this bit which suggests they were not considered people with skills we need-

                  The Home Office said the doctors were not a priority because once the month’s quota of Tier 2 visa applicants has been met, the first on the list are people in shortage skills areas or people with PhDs. The doctors did not qualify on either of these categories.

                  "The Paris agreement was not "EU targets". It literally has nothing to do with the EU. It's a worldwide agreement. It was signed by individual countries, including the UK. Learn to read."

                  So if I am talking about the EU targets and you are responding about the paris agreement then why are you accusing me of not reading? Quoted from my original comment leading to these responses- "EU recycling targets can be scrapped".

                  "The white van man got fined for breach of this: https://www.gov.uk/waste-carrier-or-broker-registration"

                  The UK implementation of the EU law?

                  "You seem to see everything as the EUs fault, which is why brexiteers are so god damn useless."

                  Everything? Hmm. Not just the various things that they are responsible for and problems they create? That wonderful utopia which is getting votes for any party against the EU throughout member countries? That place in multiple self inflicted crises? Sorry you were saying something about being god damn useless.

                  "You may as well change your name to "bloody foreigners"."

                  Why? I have plenty friends worldwide from inside and outside the EU. I do wonder why those inside the EU should get an easy ride while those outside the EU have a lot more leg work to do to come here. Or have you defaulted to the usual backstop of remainers without an argument - "love the EU or your a wasist"? If so then go call a wambulance.

                2. John Smith 19 Gold badge
                  Unhappy

                  You may as well change your name to "bloody foreigners".

                  The thing about that's really had be ROTFLMFAO is all those who basically voted Leave under the "We'll stop the foreigns getting in" idea.

                  Good news for them is all those nasty Europeans can go back to the continent.

                  Leaving plenty more room for all their those Chinese and Indians can move into those vacant properties.

                  Who they will no doubt find infinitely more preferable.

          2. Androgynous Cupboard Silver badge

            Re: Can anyone

            "Except doctors etc come under skills we accept worldwide" - well that's jolly good, because we're going to need a lot more

        2. fruitoftheloon
          WTF?

          @BigSLitleP:Re: Can anyone

          BigSLitleP,

          I agree with most of what you said, but not all those who voted Exit are idiots, which does suggest that everyone who voted to remain isn't...

          Painting with a wide brush eh?

          Thanks for your input.

          Jay

      3. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Can anyone

        >So far cheaper food as importing from outside the EU is considerably cheaper than while in it. That is a benefit to everyone.

        Except farmers, wholesalers and suppliers of UK produced food, who are priced out of business. That's only around 340,000 jobs.

        >Not having the reserve pool of workers is increasing wages, particularly at the bottom. We have full employment but more workers can be easily imported so wages stayed stuck.

        The wages paid at the lowest end are limited by the minimum wage level. If you want to campaign to increase that, I'll even support you, but you will pay more for the privilege.

        >We can bin dumbass laws for example we dont need to fine a guy for not littering!

        Citation please? Fining for littering is a good thing if it reduces the rubbish on our streets and in our countryside.

        1. codejunky Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          @AC

          I wish you didnt post as AC as I can actually appreciate your comment for being an intelligence based discussion unlike what I just replied to.

          "Except farmers, wholesalers and suppliers of UK produced food, who are priced out of business. That's only around 340,000 jobs."

          Very true. Which proves that we are paying more than the price of food to prop up an industry that isnt competing. We are being forced to shop at harrods instead of being free to buy cheaper. It is an expensive welfare system and it isnt just to prop up UK farming but French etc. If people wish to argue we need a wage rise then reducing the expenses of everyone in the country would be a good way to do it. 340,000 jobs is tiny in this economy but everyone is being forced to pay excessive amounts as proven by your belief they will all be priced out of business.

          However it isnt that simple. Some will survive and probably by selling quality products which make them a profit. They will actually be able to contribute to the coffers instead of taking! And we would all have cheaper food.

          "The wages paid at the lowest end are limited by the minimum wage level. If you want to campaign to increase that, I'll even support you, but you will pay more for the privilege."

          Kinda true on the minimum wage. But the wage rises automatically if they cannot find people to do the work at that low a price (or go out of business because the overall value is less than minimum wage). And yes we would have to pay more for it. Which is why protectionism would be a bad idea if we can import it cheaper. Why should we do work producing little to no value when we can import that and do something productive? Which of course makes it easier to pay for the privilage.

          "Citation please? Fining for littering is a good thing if it reduces the rubbish on our streets and in our countryside."

          Fining for littering- god yes fine the bastards. But a white van man put his lunch rubbish in a plastic bag and is being fined for transporting waste without a license- http://www.continentaltelegraph.com/brexit/there-are-days-when-slaughtering-the-entire-ruling-apparatus-seems-an-inadequate-solution/

          1. codejunky Silver badge

            Re: Can anyone

            Nicely timed-

            http://www.continentaltelegraph.com/food/brexit-and-the-looming-bacon-lettuce-tomato-sandwich-famine/

        2. Peter2 Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          The wages paid at the lowest end are limited by the minimum wage level. If you want to campaign to increase that, I'll even support you, but you will pay more for the privilege.

          This is what the situation should be, however it is not the situation that actually exists.

          The lowest end in our economy is also the reason why employment is so "low". People are forced into being "self employed" by their employer evading any employment protections. The former staff member having "resigned" from their employer (of course, no coercion; no siree!) then has no rights at all. They get no pension, holiday pay, and are often paid per job, rather than per hour. This is essentially a return of piecework from Victorian times.

          A 37 hour week on the minimum wage does not put you at the bottom of the lowest end of the UK Labour market. Not by far.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Can anyone

            This is essentially a return of piecework from Victorian times.

            Return? It never went away. My Grandfather worked like that, as did/do generations of weavers. People seem to think the current labour market and the so-called "gig economy" is somehow a new thing, it isn't, it just has a catchy new name.

      4. Chloe Cresswell

        Re: Can anyone

        Don't forget "- We can set up trade deals that benefit us, and not be told what tariffs/taxes to charge to benefit someone else."

        Sure, it'll benefit us, not the other party in the deal, I'm sure... *laughs*

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Can anyone

          Sure, it'll benefit us, not the other party in the deal, I'm sure... *laughs*

          if you're dumb enough to negotiate a deal like that, laugh away. We'll laugh at you.

          A good deal benefits both sides.

          1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
            Unhappy

            A good deal benefits both sides.

            Such deals only happen when it's a deal between (at some level) equals

            Any trade deal between the EU and China/US/India is along those lines.

            UK and China/US/India. Not so much.

        2. Pen-y-gors Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          @Chloe Cresswell

          And of course we can negotiate these great trade deals with loads and loads of countries, probably within a few days of leaving the EU! <hollow laugh> We must remember though that we already have deals with dozens of countries, via the EU, which we'll lose. So we'll have to ask them if they have the time to negotiate a replacement deal with us. And of course they'll offer the same terms to get access to a market of 70 million (less 10million in Scotland Wales and NI after the breakup of the UK) as they do for access to a market of 500 million. (Won't they? Pretty please?)

          And what about the countries without a deal with the EU? They'll be queueing up to do a deal with us, on our terms, won't they? Well, no. Most of them are already queueing up to do a deal with the EU, so we'll have to wait our turn.

          And for the few remaining countries? Like the USA? Do we really want a deal with an economy that is 5 times the size of ours and is determined to 'Put America First'? I prefer my chicken safe.

      5. hammarbtyp Silver badge

        Re: Can anyone

        "So far cheaper food as importing from outside the EU is considerably cheaper than while in it. That is a benefit to everyone."

        well as someone has mentioned not to anyone working in the UK food industry or associated. There uis another reason why food is more expensive here than other parts of the world and that is because food standards are higher, but most people are quite happy with that.

        "Not having the reserve pool of workers is increasing wages, particularly at the bottom. We have full employment but more workers can be easily imported so wages stayed stuck."

        We don't import workers. Workers come here to fill demand. they also contribute far more than they cost. It allows the economy to meet peak and demands more easily and studies have been done that show they have little downward pressure on wages. In some area they fill critical skill areas that are difficult to fill otherwise. As for well high skilled workers will still be hired, why will they come here if they are given the status of 2nd class citizens. Problem with high skill workers is that they can go anywhere

        "We can bin dumbass laws for example we dont need to fine a guy for not littering!"

        At least we have some say over which laws are imposed (most laws the UK did not agree with were modified or were not enacted). After we leave the Eu we will stiil have to follow the same regulations and laws if we wish to trade with the EU, but we will have no say in them. For every law which you say is dumbass I can point to 10 which made the UK a better place to live and work like increased environmental protection and workers rights

        "More inflation increases the base rate (we can get rewarded for saving again!), house prices stalling wage rises."

        That is about the dumbest of them all. Inflation only helps people who hide there money away, rather than investing it. It devalues your buying power and increases industry costs. Wages have not kept pace with inflation for a number of years, but if you want to live in a place with great inflation you are welcome to live in Venezuela

        "EU recycling targets can be scrapped so the many colours of bins to send waste to China who is now giving up on sorting and recycling it (costs too much) making our lives more productive."

        I take it you are volunteering for the new landfill site to be positioned outside your house

        1. codejunky Silver badge

          Re: Can anyone

          @ hammarbtyp

          "There uis another reason why food is more expensive here than other parts of the world and that is because food standards are higher, but most people are quite happy with that."

          Some of the cost may be food standards but actual subsidies to do something because others do it cheaper is the concern we are discussing.

          "We don't import workers. Workers come here to fill demand."

          Oxymoron.

          "studies have been done that show they have little downward pressure on wages"

          Reality beats theory- http://www.continentaltelegraph.com/brexit/is-there-nothing-brexit-cant-do-its-forcing-wage-rises-now/

          "After we leave the Eu we will stiil have to follow the same regulations and laws if we wish to trade with the EU"

          No. Businesses wishing to trade with the EU need to meet EU regulation. Same with businesses trading with any country in the whole world. Those not servicing the EU wont need to meet EU regs.

          "For every law which you say is dumbass I can point to 10 which made the UK a better place to live"

          In a place totalling 40163 pieces of legislation (very quick google number) with a 1 in 10 dumbass law rate is 4016.3 dumbass laws. At no point is that analysing the damage caused by bad laws. Then there is the variance of member countries who ignore the laws (such as the French president laughing at a law, refusing to enforce it and ignoring fines issued for breaking it) vs our country of laws. What a mess.

          "That is about the dumbest of them all. Inflation only helps people who hide there money away, rather than investing it."

          Where? Under the mattress? Inflation eats that away. In a bank? Gets invested into the economy through lending. In assets? Traded the money for an asset, the money is back in circulation. Where is it hidden?

          "It devalues your buying power and increases industry costs"

          Yes. And inflates away debts etc. The alternative is deflation, a situation so dire that the EU panicked like hell to crawl away from it after barely reacting to the recession. Japan is desperate to get inflation and has been for some time. To control inflation the base rate rises which gives the BoE a tool to help cushion the next recession (boom bust cycle). We want interest rates to rise which requires inflation.

          "Wages have not kept pace with inflation for a number of years"

          Yes. As I have mentioned before we have a reserve army of workers who will work for the current wage as it is attractive enough to them (migration). A situation which reality has recently dismissed the theory that immigration had no effect on wages.

          "but if you want to live in a place with great inflation you are welcome to live in Venezuela"

          Hell no. Socialism is a killer and I argue against that too.

          "I take it you are volunteering for the new landfill site to be positioned outside your house"

          I assume you welcome all EU immigrants into your home? I assume you want the EU so bad you will move to it? I assume you love the EU so much you want to ditch the opt outs and join that glorious Euro? We can both make stupid statements.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            "Yes. And inflates away debts etc."

            Not as much as you think - with higher inflation, you'll have to also offer higher interests on debts, or nobody will buy your debt. It inflates debts away if and only if you have a long mortgage at a low fixed interest rate.

            Same for loans, they will have much higher interest rates to offset the depreciation and ensure a profit. It will make pay more taxes on capital gains (where usually the taxable part is the sale value minus the buy value)

            The interests on your deposits, they may look higher, but the deposit could still be eroded by inflation, banks are not silly, they will put rates just at the value more convenient for them, not you. Especially since banks now wants your money not in deposits, but in investments more lucrative for them.

            Only those able to lend very large amount of money directly to central banks earn earn from higher base rate.

            People who can may move their money into some hard currency, and/or move them abroad to avoid inflation depreciation.

            Some inflation is good for labour intensive industries, especially exporting ones, because it reduces real labour cost - paid in depreciated money - while they can make profits in hard currencies. Especially where unions are irrelevant, too much busy in politics instead of in workforce interests, or neutered by laws, so they have no power to obtain wages increases. Meanwhile good prices, rents, etc. increase....

            The alternative is not deflation - which may reduce spending and investments - the alternative is inflation under control, at low values - but inflation is not controlled by the base rate only, and the base rate doesn't depend on inflation only. Many other important factors play their role.

            Also, be aware that the worst situation, is not deflation, but stagflation - and the way to get out - very high interest rights, have a very painful effect.

    6. charlieboywoof

      Re: Can anyone

      The megarich are and always have been unaffected by rules that apply to Joe. They will give zero F's

    7. Version 1.0 Silver badge

      Re: Can anyone

      "give one clear example of how we'll be better off after brexit? " - you'll be rid of both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party? Let's face it, there is no government in the UK now, all you have is a bunch of politicians feathering their nests with Roubles.

    8. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Can anyone

      if we scrap the renewables obligation, about 30% less on electricity costs.

      1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
        Unhappy

        "if we scrap the renewables obligation, about 30% less on electricity costs."

        2 Problems with that.

        1) Not imposed by the EU. Imposed by Tony Blair on Gordon Brown's government as a little outgoing f***you to ol' Mad Eye.

        2)) The Peer who took a cash-for-clauses deal to require smart meters in British homes has already spent the money.

        Another little EU fairly story that turns out to be just a fairly story (but with a British, not EU law behind it).

  9. Giovani Tapini

    Bad for business and probably worse for individuals

    Last time I had to declare goods I arrived back in Blighty by boat after returning from a non-EU country.

    No customs officers around, docks now apparently routinely unmanned, just a telephone. Upon using the phone I was told to call back in office hours. If I had a lorry load of counterfeit cash, drugs, cigarettes, migrants etc. No problem, as I had something to declare, the challenge begins...

    Back home 2 days later and finally getting through,I find there are two forms required, only one of which was on the web site, leading to third call.

    about a week later called by customs to ask a lot of questions that, had they looked at the previously returned forms would have been answered, then proceeds to request various compliance certificates etc that then require I go back to product manufacturers for as the data sheets are not generally available.

    By this time I don't really care about how much I have to pay, I would have paid them anything just to leave me alone. Returning the goods would have restarted the nightmare in reverse so that's no longer an option.

    Overall 3 weeks, 5 letters and about 20 calls, plus the final bill, which wasn't actually that much and I wonder if its all worth the effort.

    And remember people, this is the system we are apparently used to...

    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Re: Bad for business and probably worse for individuals

      Yes but once the deal is finalised (about 11:59pm on the day before Brexit) we will be able to implement a new government IT project to solve all this

  10. John Crisp

    Time to buy

    A freight forwarding business.

    They're going to busy.

    Everyone one else is FcUK'd.

  11. mark l 2 Silver badge

    These extra costs, extra time and extra red tape are all part of project fear.

    We will leave the EU next year and we will immediately go back to Britain in the 1950s and all be able to leave our doors open, the NHS will get 'Carry on' style Matrons with the extra 350million and we can all get our blue British passport back. Like we were promised by the leave campaign.

    1. Joe Harrison Silver badge

      Better get an order in for some nice daffodils eh Matron oo-er

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      We will leave the EU next year and we will immediately go back to Britain in the 1950s

      You missed a massive rise in death of children around birth and in the first year of their life.

      Look it up. The reduction over the last 50 years is unbelievable - and looking at those stats converted me away from a belief that the "natural" process of childbirth had got "over-medicalised". I'm sure all those with rose-coloured spectacles would just love a return to the, errr, halcyon days of heartbreak for many.

      1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        "We will leave the EU next year and we will immediately go back to Britain in the 1950s

        You missed a massive rise in death of children around birth and in the first year of their life."

        Whooosh!

  12. disco_stu

    Based on past Government IT projects it will be a shitshow if we do leave with no deal!

    1. Dan 55 Silver badge

      Every day's a shitshow, deal or no deal.

    2. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Based on past Government IT projects it will be a shitshow if we do leave with a deal!

  13. MJI Silver badge

    Good job the UK has

    A HUGE number of deserted coves and quiet spots to bring in and export goods.

    Just one short stretch of Cornish coastline has around 30 quiet, road accessable coves, beaches and quays. Slightly more if you can carry your loads on a trail bike.

    Roughly one per mile.

    Devon coast from Plymouth to Dartmouth, so many routes out, Slapton.

    So many places to bring in imports without paperwork.

    1. Buzzword

      Re: Good job the UK has

      But what do you do with the goods once you've brought them ashore? Let's say you've snuck in a container-load of cheap phones from Shenzhen. From a tax point of view, it's as if they'd grown on trees. Customers will still need to pay VAT on the phones when sold in shops or online. There's simply no money to be made by sneaking goods into the country undeclared.

      Notable exception for cigarettes, where VAT + two forms of duty add up to over 400%. That's enough of a mark-up to attract criminal enterprises.

  14. Mike Brown

    SOVEREIGNTY!!

    VAT? VAT? Surely we will be getting rid of VAT? We are taking back control from our hated EU overlords, and its VAT invention.

    No stinkin VAT on these hallowed shores! Prepare the Unicorns! Onwards to the uplands!

  15. Colonel Mad

    Customs

    From working in the transport business, it seems that many UK companies are already hopeless at exporting, management clearout required.

  16. maxfm

    See the bigger picture people

    There are so much short sighted anti Britain fools on this board. Free from Europe red tape we can make our own rules- imports and exports will be instant and easy. We will be a global superpower with less immigration to boot - if only people got behind the country instead of talking us down.

    We need to close the border and hard Brexit NOW.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: See the bigger picture people

      "if only people got behind the country instead of talking us down."

      Tinkerbell Brexit - Just clap your hands and believe

      1. John Smith 19 Gold badge

        Tinkerbell Brexit - Just clap your hands and believe

        Hmm.

        Would that like Canadian +, Norwegian -, totally bespoke or complete delusional bu***hit brexit?

    2. Pen-y-gors Silver badge

      Re: See the bigger picture people

      You forgot the Troll icon. Or the taking the piss one.

      1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: See the bigger picture people

        "You forgot the Troll icon. Or the taking the piss one."

        I think he just assumed the sarcasm would be obvious. As the A/C shows, you can't rely on that.

    3. Androgynous Cupboard Silver badge

      Re: See the bigger picture people

      You say "Europe red tape" - what do you think all those famous EU subcomittees are for? All that standardisation of regulations, that categorisation of bananas - it's all to allow free movement of goods, services and people.

      These regulations require our governments to standardise rules for importers into the EU, and remove the red tape for the half a billion people living within it.

      In our brave new world the red tape will reappear as forms, declarations, customs duty, border queues, restrictions on UK-EU trade and movement. And we'll get all this without losing any of the existing red tape that currently applies when we move goods, services and people between UK and the non-EU world. Brexit is going to be a boon for red-tape lovers.

    4. NerryTutkins

      Re: See the bigger picture people

      But you can't make your own rules. What part of 'WTO rules' did you not understand? You think the British parliament makes those rules?

      And what do you think happens if you break WTO rules? I'll give you a clue... it won't be a British judge in a British court deciding Britain's punishment.

  17. Zippy´s Sausage Factory

    Ugh... I guess I'm going to look into moving my business to Ireland then. Especially if I'm going to lose access to my UK bank accounts. Yowch.

    1. Androgynous Cupboard Silver badge

      I'm going to sit it out a few years then move my business to Scotland when it leaves.

  18. MJI Silver badge

    I Think "Brexit" will sign the death warrant for the Pound

    Why?

    In around 10 - 20 or so years the UK will be wanting to rejoin, lots of hard exit people died off and young wanting to be in EU people out numbering the ones left.

    To rejoin we will have to accept new terms which would include adopting the Euro.

    And yes I do consider the Vote Leave team traitors.

    1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

      Re: I Think "Brexit" will sign the death warrant for the Pound

      "In around 10 - 20 or so years the UK will be wanting to rejoin, lots of hard exit people died off and young wanting to be in EU people out numbering the ones left."

      My guess is that it'll be almost impossible to find anyone claiming admitting to vote Brexit in a far less time period than that. And I'm sure joining the Euro will be part of the price for that. I'm with Codejunky and the rest on the Euro not being a good thing but it's what they'll have brought on us.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: I Think "Brexit" will sign the death warrant for the Pound

        No no. Whatever goes wrong after BrExit will be blamed on the "remoaners" - the brexit supporters will have always been right and if they can't shout them down then they'll lock up those who disagree.

    2. Len Silver badge
      Stop

      Re: I Think "Brexit" will sign the death warrant for the Pound

      To be honest, I think the whole "forced to join the euro" thing is a red herring. There are fairly strict requirements to be allowed to join the eurozone and after the debacle with Greece they have only gotten considerably tighter. The 'Euro Convergence Criteria' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_convergence_criteria) are just a start. There are currently countries in the waiting room for the eurozone that meet all those criteria and are still not allowed in as some member states feel uneasy about less tangible things such as corruption and accountability. Every eurozone member has a veto so you need to convince all 19 countries (and in many cases their parliaments) that you are worthy.

      It would take a decade or two of serious economic reform, and a proper root and branch clean up of the City, before the UK would be allowed to join the eurozone. And this country is incapable of reform so don't count on it.

      Furthermore, a requirement before joining the eurozone is entering your currency into ERMII. And entering ERMII is voluntary so if an EU member state is not convinced it makes sense for their country they simply don't enter the ERMII. That is how Sweden, without a formal euro opt-out, has been mulling over joining the eurozone for 19 years (and counting) now. In their own time...

      What might happen, at some point, is that the euro becomes some sort of alternative currency in the UK if people lose faith in the value of the pound. A bit similar to how there are countries at or outside the EU periphery that don't officially use the euro but where they are widely accepted. Decades ago the Deutschmark used to be widely accepted in Eastern Europe and the Balkans as alternative currency and that role has now been taken over by the euro.

    3. xehpuk

      Re: I Think "Brexit" will sign the death warrant for the Pound

      Oh shit, I never thought of that, but now that you say it yes.

    4. John Smith 19 Gold badge
      Unhappy

      And yes I do consider the Vote Leave team traitors.

      Good point, distinguishing the people pushing it (many of whom could see a nice little earner in it for themselves) from the people who voted for it.

      1. MJI Silver badge

        Re: And yes I do consider the Vote Leave team traitors.

        Well look at them.

        Farage, generally a fool (and never stood up for the UK)

        BoJo, only in it for himself, 100%

        Gove, at least was honourable with his intentions (fisheries)

        I cannot remember the rest.

        But prepared to sacrifice our financial industry, which brings in a large part of our GDP, the EU financial centre WAS City of London

  19. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    What I really want to know is

    After Brexit, when will I be able to vote for "None of the above" at election time...

    1. Pen-y-gors Silver badge

      Re: What I really want to know is

      @AC

      After Brexit, when will I be able to vote for "None of the above" at election time...

      Move to Scotland or Wales and you won't need to.

  20. C. P. Cosgrove

    There costs to Brexit.

    Somewhere, a long way back in this string of comments, somebody asked for concrete examples of increased costs for shipping goods to Europe. Back in the '90's I was driving a truck running around Europe and I experienced both sides of the 'Open Borders' decision.

    Before 'Open Borders' it took between 1 and 2 hours to get through Customs outbound at Dover and between 4 and 6 hours in bound wherever, then typically the same on the return trip. After 'Open Borders' I collected and checked the paper work at wherever I loaded. The next time anybody looked at it was when I handed it in at the receiving office of wherever I was delivering. And, again, the same on the return trip.

    So, a cost saving of between 5 and 8 hours of truck and driver's costs on each trip with 'Open Borders'.

    I suspect that international transport in/out of the UK will revert to the 'Before Open Borders' situation after Brexit, especially in the event of a 'no deal' scenario. And this is a real cost on every load in and out of the UK.

    Chris Cosgrove

    1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
      Unhappy

      "cost saving of..5 and 8 hours of truck and driver's costs on each trip with 'Open Borders'."

      Multiplied by the more highly distributed supply chains driven by JIT mfg and distribution over the last 42 years of EEC/EU membership.

      Example.

      Most European Avon beauty products come from a gigantic factory/warehouse site in Poland.

      Consider how many borders they will come through to get to the UK.

      The best observation Brexit I've seen is this.

      Leave campaign bus "An extra £350m/week into the NHS" (this was admitted as BS within days but left on the side of the bus anyway)

      HMG last week "We are asking the food and drug industries to substantially increase their stockpiles to cope with delays in the supply chain."

      I predict the number of people who will admit to voting Leave within 2 years of the actual event (which hasn't happened yet) will be about the same as the number of people on VE Day 1945 who admitted they voted for Oswald Mosely before WWII. IE approximately f**k all.

    2. Robert Sneddon

      Truck licences

      The EU allows only a limited number of trucks from countries outside the EU to enter and move around the EU collecting and delivering materials, goods etc. At the moment something like 75,000 British trucks each year do this, carrying just-in-time parts to and from factories on either side of the Channel as well as transporting food and the like. There are no problems with the trucks and drivers doing this since they're in the EU and work under standard EU rules for safety, driver training, licencing and other factors.

      A typical large non-EU nation like Turkey will get about 1200 permits for trucks to operate cross-border in and out of the EU. If we're lucky we'll get about the same number of permits to go around the entire British haulage industry after Brexit.

      1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
        Unhappy

        non-EU nation like "Turkey..get about 1200 permits. If we're lucky we'll get about the same

        number of permits to go around the entire British haulage industry after Brexit."

        So you're saying that basically Brexit is quite likely to f**k up the whole UK road haulage industry?

        Still since most of the "White van man" types that voted to Leave don't run long distance that's not going to be a problem for them.

        Except of course when the companies they drive for go down the sh***er as the stuff they collect or drop off ceases to be affordable.

    3. NerryTutkins

      Re: There costs to Brexit.

      I worked for a German engineering company in the late 90s. We used to truck large air handling units from Germany to romania overland, and it used to take days, as they'd get stopped at every border for several hours, sometimes up to two days at romanian border (before many of those voted countries joined the EU).

      Now the stuff goes on the truck and is on site the following morning.

  21. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    The second rule of telemarketing is "Chaos creates opportunity"

    As Brexit will create massive chaos I thoroughly support it.

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