back to article Worst-case Brexit could kill 92,000 science, tech jobs across UK – report

A no-deal Brexit scenario could scrap 92,000 science and technology jobs across the UK, a report has claimed. The analysis (PDF), carried out by Cambridge Econometrics and commissioned by Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, aims to put numbers on the impact of a series of scenarios once the UK leaves the European Union. Overall, it …

  1. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

    I wonder what conclusions they came up with?

    1. jaywin

      Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

      On the other hand, the brexiteers commissioned a whole load of reports, but for some reason they don't want to share any of the results.

      1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
        Unhappy

        On the other hand, the brexiteers commissioned a whole load of reports,

        That's an outrageous lie.

        David Davis never commissioned a single one.

    2. yossarianuk

      Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

      At least they bothered to actually do and publish reports.

      Unlike the ultra-moron Brexiteers 'leading' our exit from the EU

    3. Loyal Commenter Silver badge

      Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

      Wow, your argument is so strong that you immediately resort to insulting those whose opinion differs to yours.

      This is totally going to convert me to your point of view.

      Meanwhile, in the real world, leaving the EU remains an idiotic idea, the proponents of which almost universally stand to gain from it in various ways, for example, by not having their tax dealings come under the scrutiny that the EU wishes to impose...

      1. evilhippo

        Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

        Because everyone should want an extra tier of state bureaucracy scrutinised their tax dealing so they have have their money expropriated more easily?

    4. Andy 73

      Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

      From the same guys who predicted a recession and the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs immediately should the Referendum have gone to Leave? How often do you have to check a broken watch before it tells the right time?

      Wouldn't their time more usefully be used to suggest constructive negotiating points to minimise job losses - or even create new jobs? It turns out that prior to the referendum they were so busy predicting gloom that it didn't occur to any of them that the scenarios they were examining could have positive results - such as record low unemployment and the highest order books for thirty years?

      If they missed those immediate outcomes of the Referendum, what opportunities are they missing in the negotiations?

      1. Loyal Commenter Silver badge

        Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

        From the same guys who predicted a recession and the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs immediately should the Referendum have gone to Leave

        Well, I don't know about you, but my salary went up by less than inflation last year, and the NHS is doing so well with that extra £350M a week it isn't getting. Magical brexit rainbow unicorns for all!

        1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

          the NHS is doing so well with that extra £350M a week it isn't getting. Magical brexit rainbow unicorns for all!

          You do know that we haven't actually left yet?

          1. jaywin

            Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

            You do know that we haven't actually left yet?

            Which is why the Brexiteers are so confident in telling us all the Remain stuff was lies because it hasn't happened.

          2. Loyal Commenter Silver badge

            Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

            You do know that we haven't actually left yet?

            I am aware of this, yes. These are the effects of the vote to leave, before we have even left. They aren't going to get better once we have left.

            If someone tells me that it is a bad idea to cut my arm off with a machete, despite it being patently obvious, I'm not about to go and cut it off just to find out.

            If you are confident that things will improve after we leave the EU, assuming this insanity cannot be avoided, I suggest you put your money where your mouth is. I am willing to bet you any amount of money that the NHS will NOT get £350M a week additional funding after we leave the EU. At least then I may be in the position to get some sort of compensation from one of the fuckwits that voted to screw over the country. I'll take it in Euros please.

            1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

              Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

              If you are confident that things will improve after we leave the EU, assuming this insanity cannot be avoided, I suggest you put your money where your mouth is. I am willing to bet you any amount of money that the NHS will NOT get £350M a week additional funding after we leave the EU.

              Of course it won't, for a number of reasons, not least that that figure is the UK's gross contribution, not the net one. It was a stupid bit of propaganda.

              At least then I may be in the position to get some sort of compensation from one of the fuckwits that voted to screw over the country.

              I didn't get to vote, unfortunately, thanks to yet another broken promise by a UK politician. All the same, your comment about "screw over the country" is unfortunately all too common of the remainer attitude that the EU may not be great, but leaving would be worse. Never mind that the EU economy is moribund, growth is low, unemployment (especially in the Euro zone) is high, you'd prefer to sit in your comfort zone and get by. That's not the future I want.

              I'll take it in Euros please.

              I'll take Sterling, Dollars and Yen, please.

              Sure Brexit might be a disaster, but it could also be an opportunity. If we don't try it we'll have neither, just a slow decline like every other European empire in the past. So yes, I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is, I'm investing in the UK.

              Sometimes you just have to take a chance on change, as I did many pre-EU years ago when I left the UK to live in another European country. It worked at the time, but like most of the Euro zone it's suffering, it's time to leave.

              So yes, I support Brexit and I'm willing to work to make it succeed. Assuming it goes ahead, what are you prepared to do to make it work, even if you dislike it? Or is that too much hard work compared to just complaining that "Well, I didn't vote for it"?

              1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
                Unhappy

                "It was a stupid bit of propaganda."

                Au contraire, Phil.

                It convinced gullible ignorant people to vote Leave by convincing them it help improve the funding of something they cared quite deeply about.

                It was a very smart piece of propaganda.

                Which is to say it was an emotional, manipulative and blatant lie which allowed the Leave campaign to play those voters like a banjo at an Ozark hoedown.*

                *Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Rupert Murdoch would all like to thank your for supporting Leave.

                They couldn't have done it without you.

          3. John Smith 19 Gold badge
            FAIL

            You do know that we haven't actually left yet?

            You do know that that claim was bu***hit, don't you?

            And the Leave campaign admitted as such within days of it appearing.

            Didn't et them to remove it from their bus though, did it?

          4. Yes Me Silver badge
            Facepalm

            Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

            And that's the point. The Leave campaign's predictions were about the effects of Brexit, not the effects of the referendum. And so is this report.

            We've already seen the effects of the referendum: a large drop in the £, which also means that the stock market hasn't gone up in real terms. And many companies preparing their exit from the UK. This report is about what will happen in 2019+.

          5. Stu Mac

            Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

            I think the subtleties of the argument passed him by.

        2. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

          My salary shot up. It's great working for a foreign country!

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

            Yup, the FSB have realy raised their rates

        3. Tigra 07 Silver badge
          Facepalm

          Re: Loyal Commenter

          You do know that "Let's fund our NHS instead" doesn't necessarily mean it would get the full £350 million you remainers have constantly misunderstood for the last year?

          It's like trying to talk sense into a brick wall. No wonder they're still protesting and trying to overturn the result...

          Saying you can do something isn't the same as actually doing it. Who knew! And Nigel Farage isn't in power to deliver that claim in any case is he?

          1. jaywin

            Re: Loyal Commenter

            You do know that "Let's fund our NHS instead" doesn't necessarily mean it would get the full £350 million you remainers have constantly misunderstood for the last year?

            That's not what the banner Boris was stood in front of said...

            http://news.images.itv.com/image/file/1019912/stream_img.jpg

            1. snellasaurus

              Re: Loyal Commenter

              You do know that "Let's fund our NHS instead" doesn't necessarily mean it would get the full £350 million you remainers have constantly misunderstood for the last year?

              That's not what the banner Boris was stood in front of said...

              http://news.images.itv.com/image/file/1019912/stream_img.jpg

              Let's != We will

              Why are intelligent people still labouring and misunderstanding this point? We all knew that the Vote Leave campaign has no direct authority to actually manage Treasury funds!

              Once we have left we will at least be able to choose what we spend the net amount that no longer goes to the EU - if you DONT like what government spends it on then vote them out.

              1. 'andsorfme'andle

                Re: Loyal Commenter

                "Once we have left we will at least be able to choose what we spend the net amount that no longer goes to the EU - if you DONT like what government spends it on then vote them out."

                We'll be able to choose what we spend the GROSS amount on. We'll no longer have to pay someone else to tell us what tospend our money on.

            2. ManMountain1

              Re: Loyal Commenter

              We're still giving it! We can't do anything with it until we stop!

          2. teknopaul Bronze badge

            Re: Loyal Commenter

            The best decision to make is the right one, the second best decision to make is the wrong one. The worst decision to make is no decision.

            This is why Farange supports another vote.

            1. Tigra 07 Silver badge

              Re: Loyal Commenter

              "The best decision to make is the right one, the second best decision to make is the wrong one. The worst decision to make is no decision."

              You shouldn't make any decision until you have all the facts. And right or wrong is subjective.

              1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

                Re: Loyal Commenter

                "And right or wrong is subjective."

                Fair point. Losing a few thousand jobs would be objective. Deciding whether that's the right or wrong outcome is subjective.

              2. Anonymous Coward
                Anonymous Coward

                Re: Loyal Commenter

                You shouldn't make any decision until you have all the facts. And right or wrong is subjective.

                or to put it more simply: since you never are in possession of all the facts you should never make a decision. Just leave it all to mama Merkel and her hordes of unelected bureaucrat cronies.

                They know everything.

                1. Lars Silver badge
                  Happy

                  Re: Loyal Commenter

                  "since you never are in possession of all the facts you should never make a decision".

                  Funny that, you have all the facts, even the Americans have the facts. see the Rand corp.

                  https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2200.html

                  "Key Findings

                  The economic analysis shows that the UK will be economically worse-off outside of the EU under most plausible scenarios. The key question for the UK is how much worse-off it will be post-Brexit.

                  The option of leaving the EU with no deal and entering World Trade Organization (WTO) rules would lead to the greatest economic losses for the UK. This would reduce future GDP by around five per cent over ten years, which is a loss of $140 billion.

                  Under WTO rules, the EU would also lose out economically, but nowhere near the same proportion as the UK — about 0.7 per cent of its overall GDP, which is $97 billion.".

                  Brexit was built on lies and dreams, perhaps on alternative facts. And there you go with a two party system where both parties are more concerned by the next election than the well being of the people.

                  Two idiots at the helm, "in the name of the people". What is there to expect but unicorns.

          3. TVU Silver badge

            Re: Loyal Commenter

            "You do know that "Let's fund our NHS instead" doesn't necessarily mean it would get the full £350 million you remainers have constantly misunderstood for the last year?"

            You are trying to whitewash an outrageous Leave lie and it was an official lie since Boris proclaimed it at a formal Leave press conference. The other outrageous racist lie was that 80 million Turks would all come to the UK unless there was a Leave vote.

            It was overt lies like that secured the marginal Leave win and that's why Leave supporters are generally so scared of a second referendum because those lies just won't work twice.

        4. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

          How can the NHS get the £350m when we are STILL PART OF THE EU AND PAYING FOR IT?

          I fear your post marks you either as terminally ignorant, or simply lying for other reasons.

          In short, you are a typical remainer.

          1. Peter2 Silver badge

            Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

            It convinced gullible ignorant people to vote Leave by convincing them it help improve the funding of something they cared quite deeply about.

            I know people who voted for both leave and remain.

            On both sides, people knew who they were going to vote for long before the referendum campaign started, and propaganda from both sides was completely irrelevant to the result of my sample audience.

            I'm therefore skeptical that a huge number of people were swayed by campaign promises.

            Realistically the biggest issue was and remains immigration driving down wages and working conditions and driving up housing/living costs for the poorest in society, and politiancs brought about the result by saying "oh, but we can't do anything about that while we're in the EU." Result, we get a vote to leave the EU.

            This effect of uncontrolled immigration is terrible if your in the poorest 50% of society as it seriously impacts your disposable income and working conditions, but great if your in the richest 50% as your larger wage packet goes even further and if your in the top 20% or so then the value of your property portfolio increases significantly due to the huge competition for housing driving prices up.

            Hence why the vote was split along class lines the way it was.

            The problem for UK PLC is that the poorest 50% of the people in the economy are now spending pretty much all of their wages just on housing and food etc, and therefore have little disposable income to spend on anything else, which strangles the economy.

            Furthermore, kids who would once have gotten their own property are still living with their parents into their 30's. This means that a house with 2 parents and 2 adults are paying one set of concil tax, rather than the two adults having their own properties and paying 3 sets of council tax. Result: councils have much larger populations in a similar area than they once would have had, and are starved of money to deal with infrastructure problems and care for the elderly (which directly feeds into the NHS having problems).

            I don't know how these problems are going to be resolved, but I do know that the richest 50% of the population screaming insults at the poorest 50% of the population is unlikely to contribute towards lessening tensions between class groups and starting to resolve the problems that we face.

            1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

              Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

              "I don't know how these problems are going to be resolved, but I do know that the richest 50% of the population screaming insults at the poorest 50% of the population is unlikely to contribute towards lessening tensions between class groups and starting to resolve the problems that we face."

              Something else that isn't going to contribute is the poorest 50% discovering that what happens isn't what they'd been persuaded was going to happen.

              I do, however, notice that the Farages & BoJos of this world are actually in the richest 50%.

        5. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

          Maybe your boss doesn't rate you? Mine went up nearly 10% last year!

        6. Stu Mac

          Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

          It isn't getting the £3.... Oh hold on, the UK hasn't left the EU yet. Gibbering fool.

      2. TVU Silver badge

        Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

        "From the same guys who predicted a recession and the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs immediately should the Referendum have gone to Leave? How often do you have to check a broken watch before it tells the right time?"

        ^ That just sounds like a denial of reality. Economic growth in the UK is more sluggish than it otherwise would have been without Brexit (source = IMF) and last year international credit reference agency Moody's downgraded the UK's international credit rating while the other two, Fitch and Standard and Poor's, rated the UK's outlook as Negative.

        The net result of all the Brexit-induced economic damage is that France will overtake the UK in terms of overall national GDP within the next year or two to be followed shortly thereafter by India. That is Brexit economic "success" for you.

    5. Zakhar
      Devil

      Re: So one remainiac commissions a report from load of other remainiacs...

      Anyway, many thanks to all the brexiters from Paris.

      Instead of moving hot air, here are sources showing some short term effect:

      (London Real Estate prices down for the first time in years: -0.5%)

      https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jan/08/uk-house-prices-fall-halifax-wages-buyers

      (For those who don't read French is says that we are now around +9% a year in Paris which we hadn't seen for a long time!)

      https://www.pap.fr/actualites/immobilier-paris-bat-des-records-de-prix/a19952

      So I just made a nice amount a money, only last year, thanks to your vote.

      I am very glad, please continue!

      As for the long term effect... sorry I lost my crystal ball, but apparently your politics have found it, so all is well!

  2. Naselus

    Maybe so...

    But think of all the marvelous opportunities that it'll open up for minimum-wage seasonal fruit picking work when all the foreigners have left!

    1. Voland's right hand Silver badge

      Re: Maybe so...

      You forgot the opportunities for the gangmasters trying to make them do it. As well as the tools for the gangmasters to control them once they understand that they are expected to WORK. Really WORK.

      1. Adam 52 Silver badge

        Re: Maybe so...

        I doubt it'll be enough to tempt Alex out of retirement.

    2. W Donelson

      Re: Maybe so...

      Minimum wage? Ha!

  3. Voland's right hand Silver badge

    That is only first order effects

    I do not see this accounting for Life Sciences people going where the funding is which is something they do.

    That whole industry is based on that. There are very little permanent contracts even in the commercial part of it, it is all fixed term, subject to funding. The moment the funding goes elsewhere the people go with it. Most of them have little "roots" anyway and a very large proportion of them are from Europe because UK simply does not produce enough degree educated life sciences professionals.

    This does not seem to account for their exodus and that exodus will happen. It is a given considering how that industry is organized.

    1. tiggity Silver badge

      Re: That is only first order effects

      @Voland's right hand

      Agree, I thought the report was remarkable optimistic ... by virtue of not delving deep enough into all the potential ramifications, very much just a high level superficial analysis.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: That is only first order effects

        ohh, but you're forgetting about all these deals we're going to get.

  4. codejunky Silver badge

    meh

    "by 2030"

    Crystal ball? Chicken bones? Vision in a dream? And what situation will the world be in by then? If this is purely from the EU being capable of continuing what if the EU has broken up by then? (suggested by EU presidents and others 'because of brexit'). Does this account for any potential partnership with the US or China or the rest of the world or does it assume we are all lepers? Does this assume that the EU are complete arses and will work with Israel but not the UK? Does this assume the EU collapses under its numerous crises? Is this working on the assumption of the EU getting out of their financial mess or assuming we will follow their bad policies? How worst case are we talking?

    Will we have flying cars by then? Or will a lack of them be blamed on brexit?

    1. Voland's right hand Silver badge

      Re: meh

      Does this account for any potential partnership with the US or China

      USA, China? Funding UK Science? Dude, share what you are smoking(*). Smoking cool stuff is not a crime. Not sharing is.

      The report paid specific attention to two areas which will be hit most in the case of hard Brexit.

      1. Life Sciences.

      2. Financial Industry.

      IMHO it underestimated the hit to both because there will be a feedback loop in either case.

      (*)I initially studied life sciences and chemistry before going to the dark side of IT. Some of the people I studied with who spent decades in USA and have green cards or even US passports are back in Eu now. Because there is MORE MONEY HERE. In addition to it being more pleasant place to work

      1. codejunky Silver badge

        Re: meh

        @ Voland's right hand

        "USA, China? Funding UK Science?"

        Why is it UK science? Surely it is science conducted with participation from the UK? Since China is looking to advance their capacity in innovation and the US doesnt necessarily trust China there may be opportunities as well as the UK and US working together. Should we be looking at it for outcomes or getting other countries to give money to our Scientists? And once knowledge is out there it is out there and monetising it is hard.

        "The report paid specific attention to two areas which will be hit most in the case of hard Brexit."

        I will be interested to see the changes in the financial industry as the EU have gone protectionist and making it difficult to access without being in the EU (something which caused some serious fall out with Switzerland I think it was) while the UK will impose no additional restrictions on EU financial businesses beyond the normal outside the UK rules. Add that we have the financial capital the EU drools over it would seem the EU does have something to lose. As for science the EU may decide not to give our contribution to our scientists, woo. And they might decide to be childish and take their ball home. So? And they might stomp their feet. (See where I am going)

    2. Pen-y-gors Silver badge

      Re: meh

      It's called 'planning' - one makes a range of assumptions based on a reasoned analysis of the plausible scenarios and then models the likely results of those assumptions. They don't claim to predict the future with 100% accuracy, but as an approach to minimise risk it's better than assuming a brigade of the 5th Cavalry mounted on flying unicorns will turn up at the last minute and save you from your stupidity.

      1. codejunky Silver badge

        Re: meh

        @ Pen-y-gors

        "It's called 'planning' - one makes a range of assumptions based on a reasoned analysis of the plausible scenarios and then models the likely results of those assumptions."

        That sounds a good plan. So the EU in its financial mess and its presidents making excuses for its breakup while they plot how to vastly change the EU into a very different structure that would likely leave us out anyway (or forced to the Euro). A reasonable assumption is an unrecognisable EU. I also recall Osborne and Carney making their unreasonable assumptions such as everything they have been trying to do to recover from the financial crisis suddenly meaning the end of the country (because voting leave was expected and has been fixing it). Or daft WTO assumptions that we would use the maximum tariffs against imports.

        "better than assuming a brigade of the 5th Cavalry mounted on flying unicorns will turn up at the last minute and save you from your stupidity."

        If we could get the staunch remain fantasists to accept we are leaving instead of some last minute prayer that democracy will be ditched in favour of 'the right' answer predetermined by those who assume to be betters.

      2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

        Re: meh

        It's called 'planning' - one makes a range of assumptions based on a reasoned analysis of the plausible scenarios

        It would be nice to think that they did so, but I have my doubts. Faced with a request from a remainer to come up with a report that show show bad leaving is, for which he is paying them, would you really expect a "well, actually, it won't be so bad" result?

        1. Justicesays

          Re: meh

          "It would be nice to think that they did so, but I have my doubts. Faced with a request from a remainer to come up with a report that show show bad leaving is, for which he is paying them, would you really expect a "well, actually, it won't be so bad" result?"

          Well, we just have to compare them with the best case scenario reports created by requests from (and paid for by) brexiteers to get a sense of balance.

          Oh, hang on...

          I understand the EU has had brexit impact reports published as well, so I guess that just leaves the people in charge of our actual brexit strategy to commission and publish some reports.

          Strange that they haven't really, but I guess evidenced based policy has never been particularly popular with the Tories.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: meh

            Well, we just have to compare them with the best case scenario reports created by requests from (and paid for by) brexiteers to get a sense of balance.

            Oh, hang on...

            The leavers are far to busy working to waste time & money pissing around with propaganda showing why they're right. Unlike the remainers, who seem to have nothing better to do than whinge.

            1. Justicesays

              Re: meh

              "The leavers are far to busy working to waste time & money pissing around with propaganda showing why they're right. Unlike the remainers, who seem to have nothing better to do than whinge."

              You mean the actual Brexit department of the Government, who's entire 1.5 years of "effort" accomplished less than two over-dinner sessions by the PM?

              I guess it doesn't help not having any idea what the economic impact any of the decisions being made during the negotiations would have, due to the lack of any studies on various scenarios.

              That's the price to pay for pursuing populist policies, inability to make any decisions based on facts or logic, as your mandate doesn't have any basis on those two things.

    3. Warm Braw Silver badge

      Re: meh

      Does this account for any potential partnership with the US or China

      The point is that there's nothing stopping us having partnerships with the US or China right now - the EU doesn't have exclusivity over our research programmes. Our research partnerships with countries like Canada fall largely within their participation in EU programmes.

      The EU has always made research funding a priority, partly because it sees the technical dominance of the US (in particular) as a threat not only to European industry, but also to European social policy. I would be very surprised if the UK had the same interest in continuing to fund research - it's been at best a grudging concession from the Treasury in the past - or to provide the freedom of movement for international scientists that has underpinned our research collaborations within Europe.

      1. codejunky Silver badge

        Re: meh

        @ Warm Braw

        "The point is that there's nothing stopping us having partnerships with the US or China right now"

        True. Except of course this is the chicken bones and crystal ball of up to 2030 which China has made stunning leaps forward and we have a fair chance of a trade deal with them before the EU do. Being more outward looking and less EU dependent could easily make a difference.

        "The EU has always made research funding a priority,"

        So why would the UK scientists be excluded if that is the case? Dont the EU work with countries outside the EU for science or is research not that much of a priority?

        1. Dan 55 Silver badge
          Facepalm

          Re: meh

          Except of course this is the chicken bones and crystal ball of up to 2030 which China has made stunning leaps forward and we have a fair chance of a trade deal with them before the EU do.

          So looking forward to a UK-China trade deal. The first stage will be the removal of tariffs on Vaseline so they can make the industrial quantities for us that we're going to need for stage 2 onwards.

      2. Robert 22

        Re: meh

        As a Canadian with some knowledge of the situation North America, I can state that most US government research programs are more or less restricted to Americans. Aside from this, judging from what we are going through on the NAFTA negotiations, you are likely to find that the US negotiating positions will be insistent on terms and conditions that amount to "Heads up, we win, tails, you lose."

  5. Shameless Oracle Flack

    From the study:

    "As with all modelling approaches, E3ME is a simplification of reality and is based on a series of assumptions. Compared to other macroeconomic modelling approaches, the assumptions are relatively non-restrictive as most relationships are determined by the historical data in the model database. This does, however, present its own limitations, for which the model user must be aware:

    • The quality of the data used in the modelling is very important. Substantial resources are put into maintaining the E3ME database and filling out gaps in the data. However, particularly in developing countries, there is some uncertainty in results due to the data used.

    • Econometric approaches are also sometimes criticised for using the past to explain future trends. "

    So this model is based on macroeconomics and past history. The whole point of Brexit is to deregulate the British economy by decoupling it from the nonsensical, Euro-centric and near-socialist view of regulation on the Continent. As has happened in the USA, this deregulation will lead to higher capital investment and consumer spending, and hence economic growth. This study is about as worst case as it can get, which is not surprising given it was sponsored by the Brexit haters in the London city government.

    1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

      The whole point of Brexit is to deregulate the British economy by decoupling it from the nonsensical, Euro-centric and near-socialist view of regulation on the Continent a large part of what's currently its home market and its supply chain.

    2. Pen-y-gors Silver badge

      near-socialist view of regulation

      I don't agree with your simplistic view of EU regulatory philosophy, but even if I did, what's wrong with a 'near-socialist' approach, that aims to create the most good for the most people.

      Rather batter than the USian approach.

      1. Loyal Commenter Silver badge

        near-socialist view of regulation

        I think the OP is probably referring to 'neoliberalism' and conflating the rather right-wing 'liberal' economics with left-wing liberal politics, whilst probably not understanding either.

        As it happens, the economic policy in the EU that people used to rail about is considerably less 'neoliberal' than folk feared back in the '70s. At the same time, the economic policy in the UK has become much more neoliberal, characterised by things such as ideological austerity, and contraction of state funding of public infrastructure.

        In terms of political liberalism, this is characterised by the 'evil' left wing philosophy of 'be nice to people', rather than the 'good' right wing philosophy of 'greed is good, screw everyone else'. This probably accounts in large part for why, when travelling to other European countries, everything seems much more pleasant and better run that it is in this country, from economical public transport, to clean public spaces and parks, to a marked lack of drunken street violence on a Friday/Saturday night (not counting the British tourists).

      2. codejunky Silver badge

        @ Pen-y-gors

        How curvy is a banana? Or cucumber?(did they retract that one for being too pedantic?). Or what can be called jam? Or apparently the size of a drink in a pub?

        Good job the EU doesnt have any crisis going on (Currency, Economics, Migration, Political, Democratic).

        Just because I really need to say this to anyone who asks- what's wrong with a 'near-socialist' approach IT HAS NEVER WORKED. The only successful example of such is N.Korea. So I really hope you dont mean near-actual socialism approach.

        1. Dr_N Silver badge

          Re: @ Pen-y-gors

          >How curvy is a banana? Or cucumber?(did they retract that one for being too pedantic?). Or what can be called jam? Or apparently the size of a drink in a pub?

          At the lying and myth propagation again codejunky?

          I do wonder what you'll have to lie about after the UK leaves the EU.

          Maybe you can blame it all on the Turks again, hey?

          1. codejunky Silver badge

            Re: @ Pen-y-gors

            @ Dr_N

            "At the lying and myth propagation again codejunky?"

            Please for my continued amusement do tell me which part you consider myth? But before you do please do check you wont look stupid for being wrong again.

            "Maybe you can blame it all on the Turks again, hey?"

            Shame you didnt check before writing that though.

        2. Triggerfish

          Re: @ Pen-y-gors

          How curvy is a banana? Or cucumber?(did they retract that one for being too pedantic?). Or what can be called jam? Or apparently the size of a drink in a pub?

          You do realise there's a reason for standards don't you? And that things like bananas weren't banned for curve shape?. And that a lot of the appearance of fruit and veg in stores is dictated by a mix of what the consumer wants to see and what the retailers think we want to see? Which is why some of the classifications of things like fruit came about.

          1. codejunky Silver badge

            Re: @ Pen-y-gors

            @ Triggerfish

            "You do realise there's a reason for standards don't you?"

            Yes, But we are not talking about standards (they already existed). What we are discussing is law. Law and standards are 2 different things. The standards existed without force of law because a government is not capable of micromanaging everything and when they try it turns out badly. Since it is not even a national issue why is the curve of a banana a supranational issue which requires the force of law (jail and/or fine)?

            "And that things like bananas weren't banned for curve shape?"

            Now that will require some proving since it is written in law and potential jail/fine, it is hard to argue such law doesnt exist. I did have a similar discussion with phuzz on another thread. Here is the link I gave him-

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/05/12/to-properly-explain-the-eus-bendy-bananas-rules-yes-theyre-real/#b8013286fc9a

            "And that a lot of the appearance of fruit and veg in stores is dictated by a mix of what the consumer wants to see and what the retailers think we want to see?"

            This is a different topic. If you want to discuss standards fine, if you want to discuss law fine, if you want to discuss the produce section of the supermarket fine but you must pick one or accept the boundaries between them.

            "Which is why some of the classifications of things like fruit came about."

            Yup in the standards. Not the law, the standards.

      3. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

        what's wrong with a 'near-socialist' approach, that aims to create the most good for the most people.

        Because most people don't want that. People are naturally selfish, and want the most good for them personally. They rarely get it, of course, but they'll never support a scheme that doesn't at least pretend to give it to them.

        </cynic>

      4. Stern Fenster

        >near-socialist view of regulation

        The evidence would suggest the whole thing is fundamentally Thatcherite: a string of mandatory privatisation* directives ("all member states must open up their public infrastructure to private competition"), union-bashing (use of the ECJ - in despite of its official remit - against unions in eg the Vaxholm, Viking and Ruffert cases), imposition of ideological austerity regardless of situation (Greece etc). Basically what you might have expected from a trading partnership elevated quietly into a political organisation benefitting primarily a gang of multinationals.

        But it's OK, here we've got a completely objective non-partisan report from a bunch of people capable of dealing with an atronomical quantity of intrinsically unknowable variables nobody else had the crystal balls for. Who needs evidence?

        * If it had been honestly explained before the referendum that the privatisation agenda would include the NHS, do you think the result would have been 52:48 ? Omission of this discussion was the biggest single lie of the campaign.

  6. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

    Reports like this will have little effect. By and large the people affected, if they didn't regard Remain as a foregone conclusion and didn't vote, would have worked it out for themselves and voted remain.

    What I'd like to see is a report on employment on industries where substantial employers are foreign investors who set up factories in the UK as EU manufacturing bases. AFAICS these tend to be in places that voted leave. They should at least have a chance to know what they voted for before they discover it the hard way.

    1. Pen-y-gors Silver badge

      Those areas were all covered by the official government impact assessments that they prepared and published before invoking Art50....oh, no, wait....

    2. John Smith 19 Gold badge
      Unhappy

      "AFAICS these tend to be in places that voted leave. "

      Actually IIRC the people at Nissan in Sunderland (who got why their jobs existed in the first place) voted Remain, their neigbours didn't

      I guess they just didn't like those Blue signs saying "Built with Assistance from the EU whatever Fund" all over the region.

      Still the Brexit referendum did achieve it's key goals.

      1) Preventing fragmentation of the Conservative party and defections to UKIP.

      2) Destroying UKIP as a significant threat to the Conservative party.

      Helping to destroy the working class as a group in the UK is just a convenient side effect.

  7. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

    Horizon 2020

    Total budget is 80Bn, of which the UK presumably pays the 10% (it's average Eu budget contribution) and yet only gets 1 - 1.5Bn on funded projects? Doesn't sound like the UK is exactly punching above its weight in science and technology

    1. Tom 7 Silver badge

      Re: Horizon 2020

      But we stop paying the 10% of the budget and we get cut loose - its a bit like not paying your bus fare and suddenly finding you cant actually get to work,

      1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

        Re: Horizon 2020

        But think of the enormous savings. Since the UK's scientists are only 2% as good as those in the other Eu countries - since they get back only 2% of the grants - we can save 8 Bn by stopping funding all the research areas in Horizon 2020 and it will have no real effect

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Horizon 2020

      A good point about money in vs money out however if I know our government they'll fund it for a couple of years then stop it due to cuts, nobody will report it and it'll just disappear.

    3. Tom 38 Silver badge
      Holmes

      Re: Horizon 2020

      Budget is 80bn for 6 years for which we receive 1-1.5bn per year

      1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

        Re: Horizon 2020

        So each country receives back exactly the amount of grants to match their payment - even though the applications are all judged competitively on their technical merits?

        That sounds like the application process I know and love

        1. DavCrav Silver badge

          Re: Horizon 2020

          "So each country receives back exactly the amount of grants to match their payment - even though the applications are all judged competitively on their technical merits?"

          Not quite. The funding is 'broadly' apportioned according to size of country, otherwise the UK would dominate it. For example, it's much easier to get H2020 funding, for Marie Curie grants for example, if you are at an Italian university than a UK one. However, the UK is close to, if not the, top recipient of funding (depends on the year) despite not putting in the most.

          1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

            Re: Horizon 2020

            That was my experience with ESO ( non-Eu !)

            4 telescopes requiring 4 identical auxiliary systems.

            2 were built in Germany, one in Holland and one in Belgium - to three different designs - to match contributions.

            IIRC one of the low country units never worked and we had to build another copy of the German ones out of slush fund

  8. Bill M

    Amsterdam

    I think the EU is good, others may have different viewpoints.

    I have globally transportable skills, have seen some opportunities in Amsterdam and am investigating moving there to live and work.

    I am a free person and currently still have the right to vote with my feet - Next year I may not.

    1. codejunky Silver badge

      Re: Amsterdam

      @ Bill M

      "I think the EU is good, others may have different viewpoints.

      I have globally transportable skills, have seen some opportunities in Amsterdam and am investigating moving there to live and work.

      I am a free person and currently still have the right to vote with my feet - Next year I may not."

      That is a respectable view except why cant you next year? Do the EU not want you? Obviously you support the EU in your desire to consider moving there to live and work. You claim to have globally transportable skills so why wont the EU want someone skilled? Maybe you should consider going before next year if your afraid the EU will be childish and exclude people from outside the EU?

      I hope your wrong about the EU and I hope the UK doesnt turn into the isolationist place you think the EU will.

      1. Bill M

        Re: Amsterdam

        @codejunky,

        My crystal ball is murky re accurately predicting what will happen in 2019, but I do have bad vibes about countries / economic areas becoming introverted. Being stuck on a small island that does not produce enough food to feed its population would be inconvenient.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Amsterdam

          does not produce enough food

          "does not" isn't the same as "can not", once we're free of the CAP we'll be less restricted. And of course not being in the EU won't stop us buying from them if we want to, as we do today from US, NZ, and various other parts of the world.

          1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

            Re: Amsterdam

            "And of course not being in the EU won't stop us buying from them if we want to" and can afford to.

            1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

              Re: Amsterdam

              "And of course not being in the EU won't stop us buying from them if we want to" and can afford to.

              Can they afford not to sell to us? The UK is the biggest export market in the EU for a number of products, like German luxury cars. It's clear that the EU politicos need Brexit to fail, but whether all the members will toe the line & write off one of their largest markets remains to be seen.

              1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

                Re: Amsterdam

                The UK is the biggest export market in the EU for a number of products, like German luxury cars

                So they ship them from America. The largest car exporter in the USA is BMW

                Or was the UK planning on banning USA imports ?

        2. codejunky Silver badge

          Re: Amsterdam

          @ Bill M

          "but I do have bad vibes about countries / economic areas becoming introverted."

          I get that. I am hoping the UK doesnt and it would be nice if the EU didnt but its up to them. That is why I suggested going before the EU potentially lock themselves down. I dont think the EU can be considered good and introverted but if you can reconcile the two (or accept their potential introversion) you probably should try to get to the place you like.

          Something I find pretty irritating is we have the EU we must open our borders for yet I have friends from the US, Russia, Asia as well as Europe and yet those outside the EU have such a hard time. Hard workers who need to figure out visa restrictions competing with people who can come here with relatively no hassle. I would like to see a more even approach but also to be more accepting world wide not just for the EU.

          "Being stuck on a small island that does not produce enough food to feed its population would be inconvenient."

          If you have such skills why would you be stuck? And this country cant produce enough food, it hasnt for a long time. Yet if food is your concern you might want to know that the high cost of food is due to being in the EU locking out poorer countries from trade (keeping them poor).

      2. Dr_N Silver badge

        Re: Amsterdam

        >You claim to have globally transportable skills so why wont the EU want someone skilled?

        Oh do keep up codejunky: Brexit is occuring!

        Brits are losing their right to work across the EU. uk.gov is only negotiating for British citizens to be able to live and work in their EU country of residence. Not elsewhere in the EU.

        Thus if you have a job that entails work across Europe you will need to obtain work permits for each country. (In my case that'd be: Spain, Portugal, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Belgium and Holland. Not sure about Ireland.)

        No one will bother employing Brits in these roles after brexit.

        1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge
          FAIL

          Re: Amsterdam

          Brits are losing their right to work across the EU. uk.gov is only negotiating for British citizens to be able to live and work in their EU country of residence. Not elsewhere in the EU.

          People complain a lot about the "£350m for the NHS" propangda FUD, but this is a perfect example of lying Remainer FUD. No-one except remainers has ever suggested that people will lose the right to work across the EU, people had that right to work across Europe before the EU existed, the EU has nothing to do with it.

          Thus if you have a job that entails work across Europe you will need to obtain work permits for each country. (In my case that'd be: Spain, Portugal, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Belgium and Holland. Not sure about Ireland.)

          Not true.

          If you want to be hired for a full-time job in another country you may need a work and/or residence permit (which wasn't hard to get even before the EU) but if you're employed in the UK and need to travel to other countries for a few months at a time for work there is no suggestion nor likelihood that you'll need a work permit, or even a visa, any more than you do today if you travel to non-EU countries like the US, Canada, Middle East, etc.

          1. Dr_N Silver badge

            Re: Amsterdam

            @Phil O'Sophical

            Sorry Phil, you are wrong. e.g. Working in France without a work permit or visa (a la non-EU citizens) will result in a visit by the inspecteur du travail accompanied by the gendarmerie.

            I know of at least 1 high tech French company who tried it on with Indian engineers who were over on business visas but actually working on a live project "for a few weeks."

            After a snap inspection (Literally, "Show me your papers!") the Indians got thrown out and the company was fined.

            That is the future for Brits and that is perfectly understandable. It's what the UK voted for.

            Just because the UK doesn't do things properly, doesn't mean other EU countries don't.

            1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

              Re: Amsterdam

              Sorry Phil, you are wrong. e.g. Working in France without a work permit or visa (a la non-EU citizens) will result in a visit by the inspecteur du travail accompanied by the gendarmerie.

              I know of at least 1 high tech French company who tried it on with Indian engineers who were over on business visas but actually working on a live project "for a few weeks."

              After a snap inspection (Literally, "Show me your papers!") the Indians got thrown out and the company was fined.

              I work for an international company that has engineers from US, India and the EU often working in one anothers countries. A few countries, India is an obvious one, insist on an expensive Business or Work (they are different) visa to travel to them, and so other countries tend to reciprocate for Indian passport holders. UK travel to the US and Canada doesn't require a visa for short-term business purposes, I've been doing that for 25 years without problems.

              In the rare cases when you need a visa there is no problem if you have the correct one. Your comment that the visiting Indian staff were 'actually working on a live project "for a few weeks."' sounds like the French company was, as you say, trying it on with the wrong visas (which are significantly cheaper), and got caught. Their own fault.

              That is the future for Brits and that is perfectly understandable.

              It's extremely unlikely to be the future for Brits, and certainly not within Europe. There's no reason for the UK to apply such draconian rules to workers from EU countries (it has already said it won't), and so no reason for a tit-for-tat reaction from the EU.

              Just because the UK doesn't do things properly, doesn't mean other EU countries don't.

              By "properly" you mean "deliberately awkward and difficult for foreigners" you mean? That's certainly the French way of doing things (especially for foreigners are aren't the "right" colour) but generally not a UK trait, happily.

              1. Dr_N Silver badge

                Re: Amsterdam

                @Phil O'Sophical

                Sorry again Phil, maybe we are talking at cross purposes.

                I was talking about working outside of your country of residence. You are quite correct that you normally don't need anything more than a standard vistor's visa (or visa waiver in the US) for business trips: Meeting, training, pre-sales. Maybe even a bit of light on-site support.

                However if you want to work you need a visa in most cases. If you work without obtaining a visa you open yourself up to a whole world of possible bad consequences. If you don't believe me, try telling the immigration officer in the US that you are coming "to work" next time you visit the US.

                If you've prevously been illegally working without getting caught, then that's fine. I hope you haven't got too strong views on illegal immigrants working in the UK. (Because I hear it's no fun, being an illegal alien?)

                My take is that uk.gov are not looking at these issues because they just don't care. The number of people affected probably won't be that many. And most no longer have the right to vote anyway!

                Those it does affect just have to suck it up and take the licks life deals. Personally I think it's the right time to look at working outside of the EU if you're a Brit who up until now has enjoyed working in multiple EU countries. If you have to get visas, might as well go all out and try the US or elsewhere.

                Either that or "Go Back To Where You Came From!" ;-)

                Fair's fair.

                1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

                  Re: Amsterdam

                  You are quite correct that you normally don't need anything more than a standard vistor's visa (or visa waiver in the US) for business trips: Meeting, training, pre-sales. Maybe even a bit of light on-site support.

                  However if you want to work you need a visa in most cases.

                  Agreed, it all hinges on the definition of "work". In the case of the US if the trip is less than 90 days, you're not being paid by a US entity, and you're not there to negotiate contracts, set up a business, etc. then you're OK. India can be trickier, their new electronic visa says that it is acceptable for "casual business purposes" but no-one could tell me what "casual" meant for certain, so I had to go through the usual painful business visa process.

                  Given how much hassle and paperwork it would be to manage, I still believe it's extremely unlikely that any major restrictions will apply to UK/EU work-related travel as long as it doesn't involve taking up residence or long-term locally-paid employment. Those latter cases are still unclear, but needing extra paperwork for such a long-term arrangement isn't likely to be a major extra inconvenience. It may well be arranged on a whole-EU basis, much as a visitor from outside the EU can today apply for a "Schengen Visa" that gives them entry to all of the Schengen area in one go.

                  if you're a Brit who up until now has enjoyed working in multiple EU countries. If you have to get visas, might as well go all out and try the US or elsewhere.

                  I'm really not sure anyone could pay me enough to live/work in the US full-time. It's a great place to visit, but... :)

                  1. Dan 55 Silver badge

                    Re: Amsterdam

                    Given how much hassle and paperwork it would be to manage, I still believe it's extremely unlikely that any major restrictions will apply to UK/EU work-related travel

                    Sorry, but the UK voted to leave the EU and the government has taken that to mean the EFTA too. The paperwork will not be hassle, it will just be a fact of life. If you were from Turkey (sort of attached to the customs union) you wouldn't get away with it, so the UK won't either.

                    The UK isn't that special and amazing that it will get exemption rules for all 66 million people. The most that will happen is that British citizens who have used their EU treaty rights will retain some of them.

                    1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

                      Re: Amsterdam

                      The UK isn't that special and amazing that it will get exemption rules for all 66 million people.

                      Let's wait and see...

                      And while doing so, consider the status of people from places like the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands. Neither is in the EU, and people with British Islands passports do not benefit from the EU rules on free movement. All the same, most EU countries accept such travellers as they do any other European traveller, at least for brief visits. I'd imagine there would be more paperwork if someone from those places wanted to settle or work permanently in the EU.

                      1. Dan 55 Silver badge

                        Re: Amsterdam

                        The only way to get a special exemption for all 66 million Brits would be to give one to all EU citizens, which makes Brexit pointless.

                        Channel Islanders don't have residency rights and can't live and work in EU countries. That's not the same as freedom of movement, they have FoM and can move around the EU for up to three months.

                        If a Channel Islander is a resident in the UK for five years, they get residency rights in the rest of the EU as if they were EU citizens.

                        1. Anonymous Coward
                          Anonymous Coward

                          Re: Amsterdam

                          Channel Islanders don't have residency rights and can't live and work in EU countries. That's not the same as freedom of movement, they have FoM

                          It is the same as freedom pf movement. Channel islands' good have FOM, people don't. They can travel freely around the EU, that isn't legally the same as FoM.

                      2. Dr_N Silver badge

                        Re: Amsterdam

                        >Let's wait and see...

                        Probably THE worst advice to heed in this situation.

              2. Anonymous Coward
                Anonymous Coward

                Re: Amsterdam

                >It's extremely unlikely to be the future for Brits, and certainly not within Europe. There's no reason for the UK to apply such draconian rules to workers from EU countries (it has already said it won't), and so no reason for a tit-for-tat reaction from the EU.

                Except that the EU are bringing in ETIAS Visas in the near future. All visitors from 3rd countries, which the UK will be, will need approval in advance to travel into the Schengen Zone.

                1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

                  Re: Amsterdam

                  Except that the EU are bringing in ETIAS Visas in the near future. All visitors from 3rd countries, which the UK will be, will need approval in advance to travel into the Schengen Zone.

                  Just like an ESTA for the US, where once every 2 years you have to spend 5 minutes filling in a form on a website? Not a major issue.

          2. Tom 38 Silver badge

            Re: Amsterdam

            there is no suggestion nor likelihood that you'll need a work permit, or even a visa, any more than you do today if you travel to non-EU countries like the US, Canada, Middle East, etc.

            You know you do need a visa to do real actual work in the US. Currently we are told to lie to Immigration* and say that we are travelling for "meetings and training". Definitely not any actual programming officer, I just bring my das keyboard everywhere I go.

            * To be honest, if they asked me to go back these days, I'd have to think hard about it.

      3. Dan 55 Silver badge

        Re: Amsterdam

        That is a respectable view except why cant you next year? Do the EU not want you? Obviously you support the EU in your desire to consider moving there to live and work. You claim to have globally transportable skills so why wont the EU want someone skilled? Maybe you should consider going before next year if your afraid the EU will be childish and exclude people from outside the EU?

        You know how it goes. If you apply after Brexit, you will be from outside the EU and EU countries have to demonstrate that they've tried to look for someone from inside the EU first. That's a practical effect of the referendum vote.

        There is also the chance that someone who has used their EU treaty rights may get to keep them after Brexit which will make living and working in the EU easier, so the EU aren't being childish. If you never used your EU treaty rights, you're definitely going to be treated as anyone from outside the EU (foreign visa, etc...). Or are you a fan of pointless bureaucracy?

        If you want them to make a special exception for the UK, we've already got it. The referendum vote was a vote to throw that away.

    2. Tigra 07 Silver badge

      Re: Amsterdam

      It's a protectionist gravy train that hides it's expenditure, treads on governments to keep them in line, and sacked the last person to do their records after he never signed them off once.

      After Brexit expect it to become really protectionist and drive away business. They still haven't said a word about Spain battering old Catalonian ladies out voting either.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Amsterdam

        They still haven't said a word about Spain battering old Catalonian ladies out voting either.

        Certain politicians have said that they look forward to an Eu modeled on the federal USA.

        The USA had a remarkably bloody civil war when states tried to leave.

        The same Eu politician wants an Eu military force.

  9. Salestard

    But the good old days!

    It'll all be worth it, as the Daily Heil crowd gleefully pitch us back to the 1950s. Come with me, as we return to the halcyon days!

    Free rickets and tuberculosis for the under 5s!

    John Mills (dec'd) the lead in every film!

    London covered in yellow smog every day!

    The Gold Standard!

    Compulsory unemployment for anyone who didn't go to public school!

    All Johnny Foreigner sent to PoW camps!

    Ha'pennys, Farthings, Shillings!

    Dialling the operator and asking for Kensington 237 (for those who can afford a telephone in their home)

    Being used as an aircraft carrier by our friends and allies, and paying for the privilege!

    Marvellous!

    We'll have none of your European nonsense of peace, prosperity, collaboration, and increased standards of living here, I thank you very much.

    No, Britain shall rule the waves again. She'll skip merrily into the sunlight uplands of buggered economy, continental ostracism, and total loss of what little international influence we had left.

    *sniff*

    It will be glorious

    1. Pen-y-gors Silver badge

      Re: But the good old days!

      Compulsory unemployment for anyone who didn't go to public school!

      Absolute rubbish.

      There will be compulsory employment as the fags of those who did go to public school.

    2. Dr Stephen Jones

      I stopped at the "Daily Heil"

      Not that I ever read Dacre Daily, but I knew the rest of your comment would be self-indulgent drivel.

      Have you thought of applying for a job as a Radio 4 comedian?

      1. Salestard

        Re: I stopped at the "Daily Heil"

        Whilst it has always been a right-leaning, ageing middle England, NIMBY, indignant rage at whatever, kinda rag, since Brexit it has lurched so far to the right its almost come back on itself.

        For example, labelling the three Judges as "Enemies Of The People" when they ruled that parliament would have to vote on Brexit. Not withstanding the mind-bending irony/hypocrisy of this headline when said rag has been foaming at the mouth over parliamentary sovereignty and loss of power of our courts for so long.

        1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
          Coat

          Re: I stopped at the "Daily Heil"

          Not to be confused with it's sister organ Der Heil und Sontag.

          I've always liked the idea of copy being clutched by a Black uniform sleeve and the caption "It's what you're right arms for."

          I'll leave others to think about what sort of uniform it should be.

    3. codejunky Silver badge

      Re: But the good old days!

      @ Salestard

      "It'll all be worth it, as the Daily Heil crowd gleefully pitch us back to the 1950s. Come with me, as we return to the halcyon days!"

      Sorry to burst your bubble but you do know the EU is designed for the cold war of high tariffs and hiding within trade blocks? You do know that the EU is designed on the older world that doesnt exist any more? Maybe you prefer the olden days but a cartel block is backward.

      "The Gold Standard!"

      That makes no sense. The UK and the US reacted to the global financial crisis and bounced out of a recession using FIAT currency. The EU did nothing. The US is unwinding QE, the UK (now voting leave) is looking to restore the interest rate. The EU ended up in a panic fight to avoid its currencies deflation and is years behind in recovery. In fact the EU is in such a bad position that people boast about its magnificent growth but forget to mention that it is still trying to catch up to years ago unlike the US and UK.

      "Compulsory unemployment for anyone who didn't go to public school!"

      Actually our employment state is much better than the EU, particularly those allowed to be severely damaged by the EU currency.

      "Being used as an aircraft carrier by our friends and allies, and paying for the privilege!"

      Same as things are now. And after we bought all those useless eurofighters that cost so much and do so little to try and buy our PM at the time (blair's) presidency to the EU.

      "total loss of what little international influence we had left"

      You mean like not being able to set our own trade terms as a member of the EU?

      1. Salestard

        Re: But the good old days!

        @codejunky

        Chap

        I wasn't being serious. The clue was the reference to the long dead John Mills, unemployment being compulsory, etc.

        However, my point remains quite serious; much of the Leave crowd seem to have this dream of returning to some long lost past national glory. An England of endless summer afternoons, cricket matches on village greens, vicars on bicycles, and a Bobby on every corner. Essentially, a self-invented partial myth fed by the post-war output of Ealing Studios.

        I have no love for the EU, but I do believe that the vast majority of the 17.whatever million have been sold an absolute pup.

        1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: But the good old days!

          An England of endless summer afternoons, cricket matches on village greens, vicars on bicycles, and a Bobby on every corner.

          It's curious, the only people I've ever seen mention that stereotype are remainers. It's as if they cannot conceive of any other reason to leave the EU than nostalgia for a past that never really existed for most people, which really says more about the remainers' understanding of the big picture than anything.

          1. Salestard

            Re: But the good old days!

            Well he's rub then - Why are we leaving?

            Because I'll be buggered if I can think of a decent, tangible, objective, reason why it's happening.

            There's been plenty of reasons put forward by Remain as to why leaving is likely to be an unmitigated disaster. Leave, however, seems to (still) be hinging on the vagaries of "taking back control" - which seems especially strange given we still have a Head of State, Parliament, armed forces, police force, borders, currency, and judiciary.

            As I said - I was never a fan of Project Europe, but leaving without a plan, without a clear idea of what we want at the end, potentially screwing up a very large part of our economy, at a time of economic stagnation, with an astonishing level of national debt, with ALL public services in a funding crisis, does rather seem to be suicidal

            1. codejunky Silver badge

              Re: But the good old days!

              @ Salestard

              "Because I'll be buggered if I can think of a decent, tangible, objective, reason why it's happening."

              Then you must only be reading comments from remainers. Pick a topic- politics, economics, immigration, trade, sovereignty. All reasons to leave.

              1. Salestard

                Re: But the good old days!

                I think, old chap, that we'll have to agree to differ on this whole thing, rather than churn up more internet going round in circles.

                Let's reconvene in two years time and see who was right - I really don't want Brexit to be a massive fuck up, but from most points I can't see it being anything but.

                1. codejunky Silver badge
                  Boffin

                  Re: But the good old days!

                  @ Salestard

                  "I think, old chap, that we'll have to agree to differ on this whole thing, rather than churn up more internet going round in circles."

                  No. Your statement "Because I'll be buggered if I can think of a decent, tangible, objective, reason why it's happening." and "There's been plenty of reasons put forward by Remain" means you are either ignorant or misinformed. I am offering you a direct answer to correct this lack of knowledge which seems to be a problem for you.

                  If this was some poor attempt to make it seem like there are reasons to remain but none for leave then yes we can leave it there. If you are truly so uninformed about reasons to leave and due to that honestly believe it to be suicidal then I am here to help you. Pick a topic- politics, economics, immigration, trade, sovereignty. All reasons to leave.

                  1. Salestard

                    Re: But the good old days!

                    Right then. That being the case, show me the money - as the saying goes.

                    Here we are, arguing on a thread about published report on a probable downside of leaving the EU. You say that I'm ignorant of the alternative case - which may indeed be the case. So, show me the published reports on a probable upside of departure.

                    Now, I don't disagree Remain is on a negative pitch - as far as that side of the argument is concerned, it is all doom and gloom. Perhaps this is because in all probability it will be doom and gloom, or perhaps this is because for a long period, the Leave side were just screaming treachery at any point which ran counter to their narrative.

                    So, tangible stuff please - this particular study claims 92k tech jobs could be lost. You're certain this is scaremongering, so where's the report stating the opposite - that 92k tech jobs could be created.

                    Tangible stuff - If X happens, they Y occurs, which equals result Z.

                    Oh, and please don't bother with the dream of a painless, skilfully negotiated, masterstroke agreement - this *is* David Davis we're talking about here.

                    1. codejunky Silver badge

                      Re: But the good old days!

                      @ Salestard

                      "Oh, and please don't bother with the dream of a painless, skilfully negotiated, masterstroke agreement - this *is* David Davis we're talking about here."

                      I think that possibility would require more than a miracle too dont worry.

                      "Here we are, arguing on a thread about published report on a probable downside of leaving the EU. You say that I'm ignorant of the alternative case - which may indeed be the case. So, show me the published reports on a probable upside of departure."

                      I like this leap. You move from having no clue why brexit could be positive to show me wild predictions of a distant point in future to give whatever the reports bias should show. This is why remain reports are shot down when they claim we will suffer badly, but not for such a long time as not to be predictable. Why would I put stock in such reports for leave if I dont trust such for remain?

                      Instead I prefer more factual and as you call it "tangible stuff". So lets start with the remain campaign Osborne and Carney claiming leave will cause the currency to fall, inflation to go up and house prices to stall. Surely you remember the claim? As we know the currency fell, inflation rises and the base rate is ready to increase which puts a drag on the housing market. A good prediction! One that Osborne and Carney said would be doom, but lets look at facts instead. The UK has been pumping out QE and dropping the base rate to do exactly this (dont believe me? Mervyn King also made a point of this). So our economy is factually returning back to a normal state. Feel free to try and refute it.

                      It is also fact that the UK is in the WTO and that in the EU we must impose tariffs dictated from the EU. So it is a fact that we can leave and reduce the trade tariffs. We would be free to join other trade blocks or make trade agreements world wide, 2 things we cannot do while in the EU.

                      Do you remember claims that we are sovereign and the EU doenst make our laws? The squealing about the gov being able to strike EU laws shows different, but yes if we leave the EU the choice of laws would be made in this country. For example the French offer our financial sector not to ramp up tax's on them for a yr if they move, vs the UK not pushing away the financial sector.

                      We have the factual employment rates between the EU/Eurozone/UK as well as factually how the US/UK/EU central banks dealt with the problems and the economic situations for each.

                      All of this is factual, tangible and pure X leading to Y equalling Z. As I pointed out with this study, if it is talking worst case then surely it must account for the EU breaking up as has been mentioned by its presidents and such. Fantasy reports have these problems. What if we do brexit and ramp up tariffs? vs low tariffs? low immigration vs high? Global cooperation instead of just the EU? Where are these reports?

                      Instead we get various levels of being in the EU (which the EU claim isnt an option unless they have changed their minds) in 2030. These reports assume the EU to be a good. They dont look at positive actions just that the EU is good and leaving is expensive (by 2030 honest). How is that tangible or X leading to Y equalling Z?

                      If you want real reports to read go look at the actual tangible figures instead of remain/leave propaganda sheets.

                      1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

                        Re: But the good old days!

                        "If you want real reports to read go look at the actual tangible figures instead of remain/leave propaganda sheets."

                        He asked you for references. Where are they?

                        1. codejunky Silver badge

                          Re: But the good old days!

                          @ Doctor Syntax

                          Why? Is he unable to look at the employment figures? Or the fact that the EU is still increasing QE and their prediction of holding it in 2018? I assumed some competence of being able to look those things up. Are you saying he isnt?

                          In 2 days I have referenced a law 3 people told me did not exist and 1 still didnt believe and referenced his own source (which agreed with me). I can be pretty certain that 1 will continue to repeat their lie, 1 will likely and the other I dont think I know well enough even after reference. I am not asking him to find a specific report from a specific bias, I am asking him to look at the actual factual from wherever he prefers to look. The reason I can do that is because he asked for tangible figures, and these are. Not some bias weighted 2030 chicken bones prediction but actual factual tangible. Not leaver. Not remainer. Not UK, gov, EU, Russian.

                2. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

                  Re: But the good old days!

                  "Let's reconvene in two years time and see who was right "

                  He'll come along with the "no true Scotsman" line.

              2. Loyal Commenter Silver badge

                Re: But the good old days!

                Ok, I'll bite...

                Pick a topic- politics, economics, immigration, trade, sovereignty

                Let's go down the list, shall we?

                • Politics - We'll be going from a position where we are represented in the EU (via MEPs), with some degree of oversight via the ECJ over the worst excesses of our own authoritarian government, to one where 'we' take back power, for values of 'we' which roughly equates to those who have gone to Eton College and then read PPE at Oxford. The main 'political' aspect of the whole brexit fiasco was an attempt by the Tory party to shore up its own membership against the looming threat of UKIP which was splitting their vote and threatened to lose them power. If you think the Tories represent your interests, you are either a Tory politician yourself, or misguided.
                • Economics - The pound fell in value by about 20% on the day the referendum result was announced and has stayed pretty much at the same place. It's good news for companies which make their profits in another currency, which is why the FTSE is up, and bad news for everyone else. We will have to pay tens of billions of pounds to sever the obligations we have to the EU, and then we will have to find the money to replicate the bodies and organisations that we will be losing membership of, such as the EU medicines regulator, nuclear regulator, etc. We'll lose the economies of scale on those costs too (i.e. have to bear the whole cost, not split it 28 ways)
                • Immigration - The idea that we cannot control immigration whilst in the EU is laughable. Our own government has chosen not to implement the rules that are already allowed about how long EU citizens can stay in a member country that is not their country of origin. Not to mention that immigration is mostly a good thing, despite what the racist right-wing press likes to shout at you. Many of the doctors and nurses working in the NHS are EU immigrants, as are all those low-paid workers who pick the fruit and veg which are now rotting in the fields because they have 'gone home'. People may have voted for brexit because they don't like immigration, but when it comes down to it, any argument along those lines eventually comes down to 'we are better than them', i.e. xenophobia. If you lost your job to someone from another country who doesn't speak English as their first language, guess what? It's because they were able to do the job better or for less money, so (simplified argument...) either you were shit at your job, or greedy.
                • Trade - we will be giving up barrier-free and tariff-free trade with our largest trading partner, on our own doorstep, for the possibility of a deal with nations on the other side of the world, who we can already trade with via EU trade rules (which we will be losing). If you think we will do better with trade after brexit, you need to do your homework.
                • Sovereignty - we never lost it.
                • Bonus point - the bendy banana thing? That was a load of bullshit made up by BJ in a newspaper column a couple of decades ago which has been so thoroughly debunked that if you believe it it proves that you lack even the basic ability to do your research.

                Now it's your turn. Give me cogent arguments for each of those points that stands up to scrutiny. I can guarantee you won't be able to, because in all the time since the whole sorry affair started, nobody has.

                1. codejunky Silver badge

                  Re: But the good old days!

                  @ Loyal Commenter

                  Politics- The EU has done a fantastic campaign for extremist political parties left and right. Their support throughout Europe has increased thanks to offering an alternative to slavishly being in the EU. The EU has shown difficulty with the acceptance of democratically elected parties they disagree with. With brexit there are again suggestions of pushing with the ever closer union and leaving behind anyone who doesnt commit completely. The Scots and even the north complain London is too far away to from the people to represent them adequately. The EU is much further removed than London.

                  Economics- 2008 global financial crash. US and UK bounce out of recession, the EU do nothing. US and UK recovering, the EU panics about deflation. The US is unwinding QE, the UK now ready to raise the base rate, the EU still years behind recovery all a decade on. The pound fell (the BoE and treasury have been aiming for this since 2008) employment, inflation and growth is positive (the BoE and treasury have been aiming for this since 2008). The EU has stunning growth, as it not only should have but requires due to its failure to handle the financial crash. Economically the UK is reaching its aims since voting leave.

                  "We will have to pay tens of billions of pounds to sever the obligations we have to the EU"

                  A total lie that wont be true no matter how it is repeated. The EU is entitled to nothing. Not a damn thing. They can negotiate and we can pay our past part of the EU's spending but that is up to us and negotiation. The EU refuses to negotiate they are entitled to nothing- no money, no Irish border, no citizen rights within the bounds of international law. It would be at our discretion.

                  Immigration- You seem to have a racism/xenophobia thing going on in that comment but that is an assumption. OpenEU (I think it was) found it wasnt the primary reason for voting leave. You say we can control our borders but only within the confines of the EU's dictation (as they are trying to dictate in negotiations now) which means by definition we cannot control our borders. And as immigration is good (I dont argue) why is the EU better than the rest of the world? Why do they get it easy (and easier to get jobs because of it) while my american, russian and asian friends must go through actual border controls? Why do you think people in the EU are better than those in the rest of the world? That is what it amounts to.

                  Trade- We leave and instantly we are able to drop tariffs we must impose due to the EU. That means the EU makes some things more expensive. So yes the BMW will possibly be more expensive but food can and should be cheaper. Which would help the poor in this country? Which would help the economy of this country? Which would benefit the most people in this country? We all eat dont we? And why dont we trade with countries around the world on shared terms instead of the EU's? The EU is neither quick nor apparently competent at trade deals so why should we be stopped from trade if it doesn't suit the EU?

                  Sovereignty- Erm read above. If we dont have control of our borders, law nor trade then by definition we have lost it.

                  "Bonus point - the bendy banana thing?"

                  This is pretty lazy of you. I proved its existence only 4 hrs ago and yesterday to 2 separate people who at least have the excuse to be on different threads. Sorry to tell you but you are wrong unless you are talking about something other than the EU law on bananas.

                  https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/05/12/to-properly-explain-the-eus-bendy-bananas-rules-yes-theyre-real/#b8013286fc9a

                  1. Dr_N Silver badge

                    Re: But the good old days!

                    codejunky> https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/05/12/to-properly-explain-the-eus-bendy-bananas-rules-yes-theyre-real/#b8013286fc9a

                    Quoting Mr Worstall's (you suck up) opinion doesn't make your bendy banana myth any less mythic.

                    I'm surprised you've not used the "EU bans barmaid CLEAVAGE!" one too.

                    Brexit it happening. The barefaced lying did it's job. You can stand down now.

                    Even The Soar-Away SUN has held its hand up to all the years of bollocks they printed:

                    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/1262214/eu-debate-leaves-15-of-brits-believing-brussels-has-banned-bent-bananas-to-busty-barmaids/

                    1. codejunky Silver badge

                      Re: But the good old days!

                      @ Dr_N

                      "Quoting Mr Worstall's (suck up) opinion doesn't make you bendy banana myth any less mythic."

                      His opinion. Which surrounds the law quoted in the text with the source link to the law. I am sorry but if the factual text of the law isnt good enough for you and you consider the text of the law to be mythic I must ask why facts are false but your opinion with zero fact backing it up is true?

                  2. Loyal Commenter Silver badge

                    Re: But the good old days!

                    The EU has done a fantastic campaign for extremist political parties left and right. Their support throughout Europe has increased thanks to offering an alternative to slavishly being in the EU.

                    Extremist (aka nationalist) politics is on the rise globally, it is not a phenomenon unique to the EU. EU countries managed to reject the likes of Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders. The US got Trump, and we still have Nigel wandering around acting like he never failed to get elected as an MP 7 times.

                    Economics- 2008 global financial crash. US and UK bounce out of recession, the EU do nothing.

                    There's pretty good evidence to suggest that our government's policy of ideological austerity extended the recession in this country, at a time when other European countries were already recovering. Do your research.

                    Immigration- [...] You say we can control our borders but only within the confines of the EU's dictation (as they are trying to dictate in negotiations now) which means by definition we cannot control our borders.

                    Part of living in a world that has other countries means making deals with those countries. Very few (if any) countries have completely closed borders. Free movement of people is part of the three freedoms of movement of the EU (people/goods/services). You won't get one or two of them without the third. The fact remains that we could have greater control of our borders if we wished, but we chose not to. It wasn't inflicted on us by the EU. It was a choice made by our own duplicitous politicians.

                    Trade- We leave and instantly we are able to drop tariffs we must impose due to the EU.

                    This neatly side-steps the issue that if we leave, we need to renegotiate trade terms with every other country in the world, or fall back on WTO rules, with much more severe tariffs imposed on us whether we choose to reciprocate or not. Of course not reciprocating would result in a flood of imports, and a collapse in our export market and the pound becoming about as valuable as a Zimbabwean Dollar. An optimistic timescale for a bilateral trade deal with most countries is in the 5-10 years range,by the way, and we will need an veritable army of negotiators to make those deals, a skillset that doesn't currently exist in this country due to there not being a need for it, since our trade deals are currently negotiated on behalf of the entire trading bloc (which carries a lot more clout than one nation).

                    Sovereignty- Erm read above. If we dont have control of our borders, law nor trade then by definition we have lost it.

                    "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." -Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride.

                    This is pretty lazy of you. I proved its existence only 4 hrs ago and yesterday to 2 separate...

                    Tim Worstall saying it is so, doesn't make it such. Have a slightly more authoritative source on whether the EU has rules on 'bendy bananas', the EU itself (unless you are going to claim that they are lying about their own regulations?):

                    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/media/euromyths/bendybananas.html

                    The full picture here, is that if fruit are abnormally mis-shapen they can't be sold as free from defects. Given that this is usually an indicator of disease, I think that is fairly sensible. If you want to go out and buy some diseased fruit to eat, I'm sure you can still find it in British shops in any case.

                    Again, doing your research is about more than just finding someone who agrees with you and stopping there.

                    1. Loyal Commenter Silver badge

                      Re: But the good old days!

                      ...You could probably do worse than spending a few minutes of your time reading up on things you probably don't agree with (debunking of several tabloid myths), as published by your sworn enemies (the European Parliament), to better inform your own arguments...

                      http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/media/euromyths.html

                    2. codejunky Silver badge

                      Re: But the good old days!

                      @ Loyal Commenter

                      "Extremist (aka nationalist) politics is on the rise globally"

                      4 of your 5 examples are EU. And Farage isnt nationalist he is globalist. Bit different.

                      "There's pretty good evidence to suggest that our government's policy of ideological austerity extended the recession in this country, at a time when other European countries were already recovering. Do your research."

                      Actually I will be amused as you try to show that. The EU/Eurozone is economically behind and had to fight deflation. The UK bounced out of recession. Also there was no austerity although the label was used for reducing the pissing away of money. Of course I am sure you can demonstrate limited successful countries in the EU but only at the sacrifice of countries in the EU. Our growth was a little under the US (as usual) and the US pissed money (started by Bush continued by Obama) so the difference it would have made is questionable.

                      "Part of living in a world that has other countries means making deals with those countries."

                      We cant. The EU takes that role.

                      "Very few (if any) countries have completely closed borders."

                      What has that to do with the price of fish?

                      "It wasn't inflicted on us by the EU. It was a choice made by our own duplicitous politicians."

                      As was joining the EU. As was selling us out to the EU.

                      "a skillset that doesn't currently exist in this country due to there not being a need for it, since our trade deals are currently negotiated on behalf of the entire trading bloc (which carries a lot more clout than one nation)."

                      So much clout it can negotiate with the big boys- US: failed, China- maybe eventually? You say we dont have the skill set as the EU does it for us, but the EU is slow and looks for its own interests not ours. On voting leave China wanted a trade deal with us, hence it would probably happen here before the EU. Yes we will have to renegotiate any trade deals we are interested in, for the UK not the EU. The idea people wont trade with us because we are not in the EU is a very isolationist view.

                      Sovereignty- I suggest you google the word if your not sure what it means.

                      "Have a slightly more authoritative source on whether the EU has rules on 'bendy bananas', the EU itself"

                      First line "Yes & No.". So the answer as proven by your source is yes. When doing your research and finding you are wrong dont try to make out you were right. Nor try claiming I want sub standard produce because you are wrong.

                      1. Anonymous Coward
                        Anonymous Coward

                        Re: But the good old days!

                        >4 of your 5 examples are EU. And Farage isnt nationalist he is globalist. Bit different.

                        Farage is many things. "A lying, frog-faced, hypocritical, workshy gobshite who will be among the first to find a new home hanging from a lamppost if Brexit goes bad" would be my definition, but yours may be different.

                2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

                  Re: But the good old days!

                  Give me cogent arguments for each of those points that stands up to scrutiny. I can guarantee you won't be able to,

                  • Politics: here we see only your uninfomed bias. Of the last 8 prime ministers (I didn't go back past Wilson) only one went to Eton and read PPE At Oxford (Cameron). Wilson and Heath read PPE but came from ordinary grammar school backgrounds. As to Tory politicians representing my interests, they don't represent all of them, but they are a damn site closer to them than Corbyn is. A bigger problem here is that the political dimension of the EU has no practical benefit for ordinary European people. It solves no obvious problem, the move from EEC to EU was done by politicians, for politicians. We don't need it, but we have to pay for it, and its consequences. MEPs represent little but their own interests, they have little power over the unelected EC that runs the EU, and that lack of accountability is fuelling a rise in deeply worrying populism.
                  • Economics. The pound fell on the uncertainity over Brexit, unsurprisingly. We'll need to wait for a few years after Brexit actually happens to see how that goes. Yes, we'll have residual payments to make from past committments, but those are time limited. We will not be fitted into the one-size-fits-nobody straight jacket that has done such harm to European growth and employment over the past 25 years. Will it be better afterwards? I have no crystal ball, but we'll certainly have the opportunity to make it better. Our fault if we fail, which is a better situation than being sucked down with the EU economy.
                  • Immigration. No argument with you there.
                  • Trade. There are 27 other members of the EU, leaving about 150 other countries, many of whom have far more powerful economies than the EU. Organizations like the WTO are dedicated to reducing tarifs and promoting free trade, which we will be able to participate in on terms we negotiate. As with the Economy, we won't be tied to protectionist rules dreamt up by people who do not have our best interests at heart. Will we do better? Again, no crystal ball, but if we don't it will be our own fault.
                  • Sovereignty. Tricky one. By definition it is the ability of a state to govern itself without interference from outside sources, so clearly the treaties we signed (Maastricht, Lisbon) to join the EU did cede some sovereignty to Brussels, so in that sense your are incorrect. Does it matter? In practical terms only a little. The UK has other treaties, linking to the ECHR for example, which are largely separate from the EU and also involved a loss of sovereignty. Once we leave the EU we will be able to revisit those treaties, if we want to, it's a controversial issue. Brexit will make change possible, which could be considered a plus point if change is required.
                  • Bendy bananas. This just as daft an argument as the Blue Passport one. The EU does have regulations determining whether fruit can be sold as "perfect" or not, and that does require bananas not have "abnormal curvature", but that's about it. Not an important issue, can't you find any more real ones?

                  The fundamental issues that make Brexit essential are that we get out from a failing, centrally-controlled economy that's never more than two crises away from disaster, and that we prevent the unelected, self-chosen elite in Brussels from wasting our tax money on schemes that benefit only their own vanity while stoking the fires of populism.

                  Uncertain future? Yes, of course, but I'd prefer to have our future in our own hands than to sit back in my confort zone while somebody else controls it for me. I'll take the risk of opportunity over stagnation and mediocrity, any day. That, to me, is the real essence of "take back control".

            2. John Smith 19 Gold badge
              Unhappy

              .never a fan of Project Europe, but leaving without a plan,..a clear idea of what we want..

              I guess that would make you a remain voter, with a small "r."

        2. codejunky Silver badge

          Re: But the good old days!

          @ Salestard

          "I wasn't being serious. The clue was the reference to the long dead John Mills, unemployment being compulsory, etc."

          You may want to use a joke icon. Have you been reading remainers on the reg?

          "However, my point remains quite serious; much of the Leave crowd seem to have this dream of returning to some long lost past national glory"

          As I have refuted, it is the remain crowd who seem unable to move on. They seem to fear the world, fear being the US's poodle. Fear another WW with Europe. One even fears being on an island which cannot provide enough food for itself! These people have been threatened with hyper inflation and isolationism and some even encroach on godwins law in the sheer fear and panic of change.

          "Essentially, a self-invented partial myth fed by the post-war output of Ealing Studios."

          What about the myth of the EU? Sold as a socialist and capitalist paradise. Their massive failures brushed off as someone elses fault. How many of these people still think the banana law is a lie? I am still having to explain to these people the level of interference the EU pushes and one commenter even claimed it was a myth! These are the people voting remain and dreaming of a utopia that doesnt exist and fearing the outside world beyond cartel borders.

          "I have no love for the EU, but I do believe that the vast majority of the 17.whatever million have been sold an absolute pup."

          I would expand on that and say even more have been sold a pup. The few leave voters wanting isolationism and the remain voters who think its the end of the world to leave. Both official campaigns were embarrassing and portrayed a childishness I still see in sore loser comments (and I am sure it would be the other way around if remain won the vote). What irritates me most is the continued propaganda campaign for remain long after the vote and still trying to derail brexit. If the outward looking remain and leave got together we could push for an outward looking UK. Instead some remainers want the EU or burn and are saying similar things to the racists and xenophobes (look for remain comments about throwing people out of the country and pulling up the drawbridge).

        3. John Smith 19 Gold badge
          Unhappy

          I have no love for the EU, but I..believe..vast majority..have been sold an absolute pup.

          And if you're right they will have a long time to realize how badly they've been played.

    4. Clunking Fist Bronze badge

      Re: But the good old days!

      "But the good old days!"

      You mean those highly regulated days under Labour with out-of-control unions? I surly hope you're wrong.

      "Compulsory unemployment for anyone who didn't go to public school!"

      Wait: why would we want to go down the route that France, Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal are going right now? If you are unaware of their unemployment rates and their budget deficits, you need to "get educated". However, I suspect you may be willfully ignorant of what is happening in those countries: because it doesn't suit your agenda.

  10. Pen-y-gors Silver badge

    £50 billion cost, yes

    ....but blue passport covers!

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: £50 billion cost, yes

      "....but blue passport covers!"

      Which the UK could have had at any point. It was a Westminster decision to adopt the same colour as most of the other EU countries - not a mandatory requirement..

      1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
        Unhappy

        Re: £50 billion cost, yes"....but blue passport covers!" Which the UK could have had at any point.

        Along with effective EU border control.

        Something else the Home Office* didn't handle very well.

        *Clearly seeking to be come a designated "Centre for Evil" in the UK.

  11. Snar

    Fuck the jobs!

    Doesn't matter so are getting our blue passports "back"

    Cunts.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Fuck the jobs!

      Having heard more than one UKIP type go on about "blue passports" some time back, it was already obvious that this is what it was about- bugger the consequences, damn the cost, Brexit was all about getting their fucking blue passports back.

      Or rather, getting back their risible symbols of Little England and a chance to pretend it was still 1951, the Suez Crisis had never happened and Britain was still in a position to dictate terms to everyone else.

      With the emphasis on "pretend".

      And as others pointed out, the British Government could have kept the passports blue if they'd wanted to, but chose to adopt European burgundy. Not that this would have justified Brexit even if this hadn't been the case.

  12. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Remoaner commissions report from remoaner Corbynista...

    from Guido Fawkes order-order.com

    "Khan has commissioned Cambridge Econometrics, of which Jeremy Corbyn’s loudmouth ‘economics guru’ Richard Murphy is a director. Murphy adheres to the Corbynista creed of high taxing, high spending (he wrote a book called ‘The Joy of Tax’, which is a bit of a giveaway). Even The Guardian found Murphy immodest: he said in an interview “I’m well aware that there is one Treasury minister who is now referring to me as the Right Honourable Lord Murphy.” Murphy also claimed he was set for a SpAd job in the Shadow Treasury team. John McDonnell didn’t see it that way…

    Murphy’s entirely glum outlook on Brexit is a matter of record. Check out his prediction that Britain would be in a recession in the event of a Leave win..."

    https://order-order.com/2017/12/08/khan-asks-brexit-bashing-corbynistas-write-independent-impact-papers/

    1. Loyal Commenter Silver badge

      Re: Remoaner commissions report from remoaner Corbynista...

      Nicely refuted by referring to the ramblings of a batshit-crazy right-wing blogger. That's me convinced.

  13. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    What science jobs ?

    Since 1980 (and perhaps earlier) there has been an obsession that the only way to generate money for this country is the City at the expense of science and industry.

    1. Hans 1 Silver badge

      Since 1980 (and perhaps earlier) there has been an obsession that the only way to generate money for this country is the City at the expense of science and industry.

      Exactly, note that the city is more than pleased of losing passporting rights to the EU, they'll get to move to sunnier places like Frankfurt, Paris, and Madrid. That will be fun to watch ....as is this:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6iJi5HXfbE

    2. Loyal Commenter Silver badge

      The UK punches well above its weight on the global stage (and within the EU) in science and technology. That you are unaware of this doesn't make it untrue, it just demonstrates your own ignorance. it is an important and growing part of our economy, which will be properly screwed over by petty-minded nationalism.

  14. Dr Stephen Jones
    FAIL

    It gets better

    Cambridge Econometrics consults for the European Commission, and at least two others EU quangos. It's all on their website.

    So I would not expect them to say anything else. This really should have been mentioned in the article.

  15. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Brexit proved one prediction...

    Idiots are the majority.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Brexit proved one prediction...

      Idiots are the majority.

      Then again, an idiot might think that...

  16. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Being thick, I only know of one thing that is definitely going to change with brexit and that is the UK passport.

    Being thick, I can't see the plus side of a £40+billion cost to change it from red to blue but, as they say, YMMV.

  17. ShelLuser

    Something doesn't add up for me...

    "However, the report said that the main problem facing the science and technology sector is access to funds after Brexit. The UK is a major recipient of EU funding, either in grants for individual researchers or as part of larger, international groups."

    But in other countries we're told that the UK leaving is bad news because the costs for those other countries will significantly rise because the UK no longer contributes to the EU anymore.

    So what is it, you can't have it both ways.

    1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

      Re: Something doesn't add up for me...

      We make a net contribution to the EU overall. But get more than our fair share of the research budget, because we have the best universities in Europe. At least according to the global rankings...

  18. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Best Case Brexit

    Britain flourishes out from under the shackles of the likes of Merkel and the European Union.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Best Case Brexit

      ...and becomes subject to every non-EU country that demands concessions for a future trade agreement.

      Why else is May trying to get Henry VIII powers through Parliament at the moment? She wants to be able to arbitrarily change any EU inherited laws on things like employment rights or food - if a non-EU trade deal requires it.

      1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

        Re: Best Case Brexit

        She wants to be able to arbitrarily change any EU inherited laws on things like employment rights or food

        Not quite. If those inherited laws aren't transposed into UK law by the time Brexit happens there'd be a gap, old laws either repealed or inappropriate but no new law to replace them. A mass "global edit" of EU laws to make them into UK laws is the only reasonable way to proceed in the time available. After that, of course, other changes may be required, and they'll have to go through parliament as usual. Any attempt at an arbitrary change is a quick route to a confidence vote and an election.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Best Case Brexit

          Transposing "EU" laws into UK laws is a separate issue to the "Henry VIII" powers, which the government want so that the cabinet (and their advisers & influencers) can subsequently make arbitrary decisions about the myriad of other issues covered by all the EU directives/regulations/suggestions that in the UK have been implemented through administrative orders and various other extra-legal instruments.

          There is no point in being in taking back power if you then have to share it.

        2. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

          Re: Best Case Brexit

          "If those inherited laws aren't transposed into UK law by the time Brexit happens there'd be a gap, old laws either repealed or inappropriate but no new law to replace them."

          Quite true. That's not what the A/C objected to and what you're responding to. The problem is combining this with the govt wanting to give itself the right to change the transposed laws in the future without further legislation. That means that in a few years' time what gets transposed from EU law to local law becomes changed by Ministerial fiat:

          "The Government sometimes adds this provision to a Bill to enable the Government to repeal or amend it after it has become an Act of Parliament. The provision enables primary legislation to be amended or repealed by subordinate legislation with or without further parliamentary scrutiny.

          Such provisions are known as Henry VIII clauses, so named from the Statute of Proclamations 1539 which gave King Henry VIII power to legislate by proclamation."

          From parliament.uk.

          1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
            Unhappy

            provision enables..legislation to be amended or repealed..without further parliamentary scrutiny.

            Sounds a lot like the ancestor to the infamous "Statutory Instruments" much beloved of the Dark Lord Mandelscum.

  19. Haefen

    Never give up?

    Wow they never give up do they? Democracy, even just a little bit of democracy, is seen as an evil that must be fought even after a battle is lost.

  20. HmmmYes Silver badge

    Its macro economics. Its like astrology without the science.

    Im surprised they didnt predict a loss of 92,505.5 jobs.

    Macro economics is total fucking junk. Anyone - remsin or exit - who leans on a macro economics report is a fucking moron.

  21. Notrub

    I see the Brexit trolls are out in force on El Register.

    Personally, I believe Respect is something earned, not given, and not a single one of these feckless morons has managed to earn a shred of respect since the referendum was first announced.

    People, who have their opinions delivered to them by the Daily Fail, and are content to vote for the biggest change to this country since WWII, because their hatred of Johnny Foreigner outweighs any suspicion they may otherwise harbor regarding trusting a mega rich fella guy telling them "Oh go on, vote out, everything will be rosy!"

    I spent some time, trying to have sensible arguments, but gave up long since, given that they are mentally incapable of engaging in fact based arguments.

    I'm still waiting for one to call me a traitor to my face - I'll greatly enjoy the following 60 seconds.

    1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

      Personally, I believe Respect is something earned

      Me too, and you're not earning much with your assumptions that leavers are all Daily Fail readers unable to think for themselves. I supoport Brexit, would have voted for it if I could have done. I think I read a Daily Fail once or twice, back in the 1980s, haven't seen it in a long time. Unlike many of the remainers I've actually travelled in the wider world, lived elsewhere in the EU (among foreigners, no less. I even learned to speak their lingo!), and have used my own personal expereinces to understand that the EU is an economically moribund wannabe-Empire, created by politicians for their benefit, not ours.

      given that they are mentally incapable of engaging in fact based arguments.

      You seem to feel that your desire to stay is the result of your superior mental capacity. That certainly says something about you.

      I'm still waiting for one to call me a traitor to my face - I'll greatly enjoy the following 60 seconds.

      Hmm, interesting. Is that a reflection on your attention span, or an indication that you'll resort to violence against those who disagree with you? Way to gain respect, pal.

      I wouldn't call you a traitor, to your face or otherwise just for being a remainer, you're entitled to your views on how the country should be run, and who it should be controlled by. Unless you actually resort to violence to prevent a democratic decision being implemented, of course.

  22. Zog_but_not_the_first Silver badge
    Windows

    Brexit

    A right wing coup. In slow motion.

    Discuss.

    1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

      Re: Brexit

      Answer: Nope. There was a big vote, and everything...

      Did you sleep through it? It seemed to go on for long enough.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Brexit

        No, that would would be the people who voted for it. They thought the grass was greener on the other side. And many lies (and liars) convinced them it was.

        Welcome to the new boss, same as the old boss...

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Brexit

          They thought the grass was greener on the other side. And many lies (and liars) convinced them it was.

          Many others prefered to remain on their own threadbare lawn rather than look over the fence, because of the lies and liars convincing them that their brown grass is really healthy and growing well. Cuts both ways.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Brexit

            "... convincing them that their brown grass is really healthy..."

            Unfortunately, leaving or staying in the EU isn't going to make those people's grass any greener.

            Either outcome will just make them angrier.

      2. Loyal Commenter Silver badge

        Re: Brexit

        There was a big vote, and everything...

        I refer you to 1930's Germany, and how having "a big vote and everything" worked out on that occasion.

      3. TVU Silver badge

        Re: Brexit

        "Answer: Nope. There was a big vote, and everything...

        Did you sleep through it? It seemed to go on for long enough".

        Yes, but the winning side only won by telling the most outrageous and racist lies in order to get that win.

        1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
          Unhappy

          "outrageous and racist lies" for the win.

          That's Bozzer (and Trump).

          Every time.

      4. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: Brexit

        "It seemed to go on for long enough"

        Like he said, slow motion.

    2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

      Re: Brexit

      A right wing coup. In slow motion.

      Discuss.

      Which of the big left-wing parties opposed it? As I recall at election time both Tory & Labour were officially remain-ish, the centrist LibDems were very strong remainers.

      After the vote, both mainstream parties became "will of the people" leavers, LibDems haven't changed. Not much sign of a right-wing bias there. Last year's election fiasco didn't even produce the initially-expected Tory landslide.

      Of the smaller parties, the Marxist Sinn Féin were anti-EU by policy, but now support remain (unless Leave gets the Irish border deleted. Hypocisy, much?). UKIP are a single-issue party, and having achieved their aim they unsurprisingly imploded. No-one needs them now.

      If anything this isn't a right/left issue, but a populist one.

      It is interesting to compare the general EU situation with the UK one. None of the mainstream parties across the EU is publically anti-EU, but opinion polls show a substantial and increasing disillusionment with the EU (and particularly the Euro) in many countries, Germany being the exception. Who do eurosceptics cast their vote for? In the UK they had UKIP, elsewhere only the rather nasty right-wing extremist parties like the FN (France), AfD (Germany), PVV (Netherlands), all of whom have seen significant (and worrying) rises in support recently. The UK is perhaps fortunate that it had UKIP to absorb this dissatisfaction, and hasn't seen a significant growth in support for parties like BNP or Britain First, which again suggests that this is a populist issue, not a right/left one.

      There are left-wing populist parties as well, of course, like Syriza in Greece, La France Insoumise in France, and also allegedly centrist ones like the Movimento 5 Stelle in Italy. None of them is especially pro-EU (or pro-Euro) either, and they do get some of the eurosceptic votes in their countries.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Brexit

        >Which of the big left-wing parties opposed it? As I recall at election time both Tory & Labour were officially remain-ish, the centrist LibDems were very strong remainers.

        Apart from the Tories never being a left-wing party, both SNP and Plaid Cymru were Remain. The Greens, although primarily environmental are left-wing and supported Remain. The majority of the Labour party membership did by a significant amount (60+% IIRC).

        1. Nial

          Re: Brexit

          "Apart from the Tories never being a left-wing party, both SNP and Plaid Cymru were Remain"

          Only for political expediency.

          If the SNP had 'won' in 2014 we'd (Scotland) have been out of the EU.

  23. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    That should help with the dumbing down of the UK even more.

    After all. that was the idea behind brexit wasn't it?

    Or was putting British idiots in charge of the country just an unintended consequence?

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: That should help with the dumbing down of the UK even more.

      "Or was putting British idiots in charge of the country just an unintended consequence?"

      They were in charge before. The times they were pulled by the ECJ are publicised. The times they "gold plated" EU directives into bureaucratic nightmares has been conveniently forgotten - except that the results were then allowed to be incorrectly blamed on the EU eg DEFRA delays with farming subsidies.

  24. Lars Silver badge
    Happy

    Sunderland

    I think Sunderland was mentioned in some comment.

    This vid I find quite interesting much because both the politicians and the experts have a go at the problems and great opportunities involving different scenarios regarding the Brexit agreement. Also how Aston Martin and Nissan differ in how they work.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8F3LZTJOzSA

    Business and Enterprise Cttee: Brexit and the Automotive Industry.

  25. John Smith 19 Gold badge
    Unhappy

    Financial Services is the biggie in the UK. A little increase in "friction" and suddenly....

    There's going to be a whole bunch of new accommodation opportunities around Threadneedle Street*

    *Provided of course you can afford them.

  26. streaky Silver badge

    LOL

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the massive tech investment continues with corporations saying "no we don't give a shit about brexit actually, in fact, it's why we're investing here"

    Most polite thing I can say about Sadiq Khan is he's a clown who won't get re-elected, and weirdly not because he's delusional - but because he's incompetent. Weird that. This City Airport nonsense didn't help his case, especially when he's claiming to be some sort of environment mayor, undoing Boris' ban on their expansion - Labour have shown to what degree they'll take money to kill people.

    1. Illsay

      Re: LOL

      Ah, finally a quote so that must be factual. Very interested to know which corporation(S?) had their press officer utter these words. I can perfectly understand why it's laughable.

    2. chr0m4t1c

      Re: LOL

      >Meanwhile, in the real world, the massive tech investment continues with corporations saying "no we don't give a shit about brexit actually, in fact, it's why we're investing here"

      Meanwhile, in the real world, at the time of the vote I was working for a massive tech firm who decided to massively scale back their UK infrastructure and workforce and are considering exiting the UK completely as a direct result of Brexit. I was one of the 10% made redundant last year and I know of former colleagues who are in this year's 10%.

      I returned to contracting and right now I'm working for a different massive tech firm who have been - and are doing - exactly the same thing.

      I know there are a handful of specific examples about investment in the UK tech industry, but those seem to be split between companies taking a punt on the weak pound and those trying to pick up the business being abandoned by the companies scaling back their UK operations.

      In all honesty I'm not seeing a trend towards investment in the UK *at this time* and certainly not massive amounts of investment.

      In the end I don't know that the ultimate outcome will make too much difference to me in the short term anyway.

      If Brexit goes ahead then there will be a lot of work in the IT sector building new systems that will be required for functions that are currently carried out by the EU, but will have to return to the UK.

      If Brexit collapses, then many projects that are currently on-hold pending the outcome will come back to life.

  27. Danny 5

    Economics

    You don't have to be a genius to see what the effects of Brexit are. Just look at how the UK is doing and compare that to the EU. Even Greece is recovering and will be able to arrange their own finances again soon (I still feel sorry for how they were treated, but at least it's getting a little better now). Economic growth in the euro zone is pretty good and unemployment is rapidly dropping. there's an increase on foreign investments and more productivity all round. Things are looking a lot better since the financial crisis started.

    Now let's look a the UK. Economic growth is low, unemployment is high and forecasts are not too positive. the Pound has dropped a ton of value and is not showing any sign over recovering soon. foreign investments are already dropping and to top it off, your national healthcare in almost in tatters.

    Anyone implying these are good things for the UK is a complete and utter moron, there's just no two ways about it.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Economics

      Employment is actually pretty high in the UK. The problem is not lack of jobs - its lack of well paid jobs and affordable housing. The UK is a popular destination for Eu nationals to work because of English being a second language. Net immigration at 330,000 is completely unsustainable -if Merkel had recognised the unique problem the UK has and allowed immigration controls Brexit wouldn't have happened. True no trade deal is a bad economic outcome. But staying in the EU with net immigration of 330,000 per year means a city the size of Cardiff being added with little new housing stock being built. Staying in the EU does not solve this problem. People tend to fall into Remain or Leave based on personal economic circumstances - but there are problems that both sides don't want to face up to IMO when debating this subject.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Economics

        >Net immigration at 330,000 is completely unsustainable -if Merkel had recognised the unique problem the UK has and allowed immigration controls Brexit wouldn't have happened.

        Germany has both an higher immigration rate and more non-natives as a percentage of the population than the UK - around 3.5 million more or 1.7%. Only the USA has more immigrants than Germany - and Russia and Saudi Arabia are also above the UK.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_immigrant_population

        Half of that 330,000 was non-EU anyway and we could have stopped it at any time. One of the underlying reasons that immigration was so high was the need for ~250,000 additional jobs each year just to cover the extra pensions.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Economics

      Google "UK Unemployment rate".

      It's 4.3% vs 3.7% for Germany - lower than at any time since 1984 when the graph starts (and when it was 10.7%).

      Whole-EU unemployment rate was 7.3% as at July 2017. It's falling rapidly but will take some time to math the UK unemployment rate.

      With regard to the effect of the roughly 20% drop in the pound - although it's an affront to national pride the main effect is to increase the cost of imports. Conversely the UK component of export costs has become cheaper when viewed from the perspective of an overseas customer or employer. My friends in manufacturing are pleased as they have a high value-add!

      I work in the UK for a US company, and due to the fall in the pound I'm costing my employers about 15% less than I did when hired 2 years ago. Effect on my spending is that I won't be buying a new Nikon camera as planned, but have just bought a Rega turntable.

      I know that's just a sample of one, but it might be typical of many of us in tech.

      1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: Economics

        "Conversely the UK component of export costs has become cheaper when viewed from the perspective of an overseas customer or employer."

        What you're saying, in effect, is that the UK will do very well after Brexit as a low wage economy.

    3. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

      Re: Economics

      Economic growth in the euro zone is pretty good and unemployment is rapidly dropping.

      Euro zone growth last year was around 2.1%, forecast as 1.9% next year (IMF figures), slightly lower than the 2.1% forecast for the US and well below China's 6.1%

      Euro zone unemployment is at 8.8%, lowest since 2009 but hardly dropping rapidly. It's also significantly unequal, 3.6% in Germany, 9% in France but 17% in Spain and 21% in Greece. It's far worse for the under-25s, which doesn't bode well for the future: 40% in Greece and 38% in Spain.

      Now let's look a the UK. Economic growth is low, unemployment is high

      UK forecast growth has dropped from 2.0% to 1.7% due to the Brexit uncertainity, so now a little lower than the Euro zone. UK unemployment has dropped from 8% to 4.3% over the past 5 years, certainly not high, and well below the EU average.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Phil

        Not a single forecasted growth figure has been correct since the referendum (They keep getting revised up), but remainers keep throwing all their faith into them.

        1. Loyal Commenter Silver badge

          Re: Phil

          Not a single forecasted growth figure has been correct since the referendum (They keep getting revised up), but remainers keep throwing all their faith into them.

          Except for that last revised forecast we got in the last quarter of last year, when it was revised significantly down. Selective memory perhaps?

          https://www.ft.com/content/e354a930-7cdf-31f6-af4b-2b005c9f8f24

        2. TVU Silver badge

          Re: Phil

          "Not a single forecasted growth figure has been correct since the referendum (They keep getting revised up), but remainers keep throwing all their faith into them".

          That is a complete falsehood not least because predictions about Brexit hitting the UK's economic growth rate and overall performance have come true.

          Just why is it that so many Leave supporters are now hiding behind the Anonymous Coward masks? Perhaps they too scared of being publicly associated with a rotten and economically destructive decision?

        3. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

          Re: Phil

          "Not a single forecasted growth figure has been correct since the referendum"

          Or ever as far as I can remember. The projected growth figure for any given year always gets lower as we approach it and the growth for the more distant future always looks rosier. Treasure predictions resemble Gartner's.

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Economics

        >It's far worse for the under-25s, which doesn't bode well for the future: 40% in Greece and 38% in Spain.

        Don't these countries include students among the Under-25 unemployed. If we used the same measures our youth unemployment would be equally high.

        1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: Economics

          Don't these countries include students among the Under-25 unemployed.

          No. The OECD definition is "the number of unemployed 15-24 year-olds expressed as a percentage of the youth labour force. Unemployed people are those who report that they are without work, that they are available for work and that they have taken active steps to find work in the last four weeks." (my italics). The UK youth unemployment rate is 13%, see https://data.oecd.org/unemp/youth-unemployment-rate.htm

  28. Stu Mac

    "*could* scrap"

    "a report has claimed"

    "commissioned by Mayor of London Sadiq"

    This isn't fit to wipe my backside with.

    How about looking at where the opportunities are, like every good Entrepreneur and CEO is doing right now.

    1. TVU Silver badge

      "How about looking at where the opportunities are, like every good Entrepreneur and CEO is doing right now".

      They are doing that right now and many are relocating from unwelcoming Little England and are going to Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt. Brexit has been doing very well in one respect - the exporting of jobs to the EU.

  29. streaky Silver badge

    Not those exact words, but near as damn it. I can list companies, but I shouldn't need to - people should be aware of what has been said by actual businesses.

  30. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    sigh...

    A no-deal Brexit scenario could scrap 92,000 science and technology jobs across the UK, a report has claimed.

    On the other hand it could create 180,000 new ones.

  31. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Function Creep

    Brexit is going to be a godawful catastrophe for the UK economy and anyone who disagrees with this, is a moron. As a protocol for providing relatively unimpeded goods and services across member states, it was brilliant but the creeping evolution towards some sort of superstate has caused all of the issues... The UK has to martyr itself before any change of course is possible, if a change of course is possible, if the EU doesn't collapse. The far right rise as they always do when economic conditions get tough. The consequences of the financial crisis of 2008 is not going anytime soon. Too much was invested in toxic abstracted debt products: that market was 500 trilion dollars in size, it will take decades to settle down, even with magic money trees fruiting full pelt across the world. Wars, famine, pestilence, will all be rife. May as well top yourself now.

    1. This post has been deleted by its author

    2. codejunky Silver badge

      Re: Function Creep

      @AC

      "Brexit is going to be a godawful catastrophe for the UK economy and anyone who disagrees with this, is a moron"

      Thats a bad position to take as Euro supporters found.

      "As a protocol for providing relatively unimpeded goods and services across member states, it was brilliant but the creeping evolution towards some sort of superstate has caused all of the issues"

      However this is the reason I quoted your comment. Hell yes. The only good thing I have heard of from the EU's existence is the single market. But unfortunately all the rest of the rubbish is the cost of this one thing and the cost has kept increasing without benefit. The question is if the EU will fix this problem or be consumed by it.

  32. Lars Silver badge
    Happy

    An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27

    "But in other countries we're told that the UK leaving is bad news because the costs for those other countries will significantly rise because the UK no longer contributes to the EU anymore.

    So what is it, you can't have it both ways."

    The EU has made it's impact assessment here:

    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/595374/IPOL_STU(2017)595374_EN.pdf

    Worth a read for anybody.

    Abstract

    This paper, managed by the Policy Department on Economic and Scientific Policies for the Committee on Internal Market and Consumer Protection, assesses the likely impact of Brexit on EU27, together with some scenarios for the terms of the UK’s secession. For the EU 27, the losses are found to be virtually insignificant, and hardly noticed in the aggregate. By contrast, for the UK the losses could be highly significant, over ten times greater as a share of GDP. Impacts on various Member States – in particular Ireland – and sectors in the EU27 could be more pronounced.

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