Commoditisation of everything except security
Interesting to see this pitched as "win/lose": I wonder if that's the real story? My perspective (and it's very much an IMHO) is that cloud and virtualisation are rather obviously facets of the same gem, which is the commoditisation of processing: if you have logic that needs to be executed, you go wherever that can be done quickly and reliably. (If you pursue the agnosticism far enough, you wouldn't even care in what language/s the logic was implemented, what tin it runs on or physically where that might be, what OS it depends on or what backend database it uses. Why waste valuable brain cycles worrying about something which should be a black box?) So theoretically it all comes down to price.
If that were true, you'd simply evaluate cloud providers on a bunch of measurable metrics (CPU, storage, bandwidth, uptime, scalability etc), negotiate a price and let the spreadsheet decide who wins.
But while this is fine for the essentially quotidian business of crunching payroll or running the shopping cart,it is NOT fine if you are deploying a key part of your business's unique selling point, handling confidential data, achieving competitive advantage, storing high-security information for third parties. Because in allowing that stuff to run on someone else's black box you are offering hostages to fortune.
To put it in stark terms: if you set up an online sales operation on AWS, offering desirable products via a great website experience, and it becomes really successful—to the point where it's taking some Amazon market share—do you think Amazon won't notice? They are hosting an operation that is cannibalising some of their own sales: given your respective positions, do you expect your business to survive that? We already live in a world where small businesses with new ideas are routinely ambushed and crushed by bigger businesses that "just happen" to have got the same idea and rushed it to market. A world in which NSA, the dominant electronic spying agency, has for decades pillaged the secrets of foreign companies. Where China and Russia devote vast efforts to data theft. Where the world's most valuable company can consider it worthwhile to argue about a rectangle with rounded corners.
Black box or not, the critical question will become: how can I keep my critical, valuable secrets and advantages safe and secure? And while it is possible to encrypt data before you put it on the cloud, that's not much use if it's a 10Pb database that requires constant query.
So it seems to me that cloud will occupy a large place, but sheer survival will dictate that a very large minority of data will always be kept on-prem, under lock and key—and the locks and keys will be better ones than we use today.