back to article Osborne on Leave limbo: Travel and trade stay unchanged

Keep calm and carry on is the Chancellor’s message to UK firms trading with Europe working with EU staff following last week’s shock victory for Vote Leave. George Osborne made a statement Monday morning designed to calm the markets and business jitters since the referendum result to leave the EU. Osborn stated the fact that …

  1. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

    We do forklifts; selling, hiring and maintaining. All very unglamorous and dealing almost entirely with the manufacturing industry.

    Our main supplier of parts is in Belgium, our (separate) main supplier of new machines is also in Belgium, our biggest single customer is German and some huge proportion of our business trickles down from [unnamed motor manufacturer].

    So, our major suppliers due to exchange rates became 6% more expensive overnight, our single biggest customer's future in the UK is uncertain, and heaven only knows what the carmaker will do now. Oh, and if (as anyone remotely sensible wants) the UK is to retain access to the common market we'll still be required to adhere to all the EU regulations, but without having a vote in them.

    Yay independence?

    1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

      Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

      our biggest single customer is German and some huge proportion of our business trickles down from [unnamed motor manufacturer

      our major suppliers due to exchange rates became 6% more expensive

      So, your exports just got 6% cheaper as well, or to put it another way every EU sale now gets you 6% more income. Swings & roundabouts.

      I've never seen such a bunch of glass-half-empty pessimsists :)

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

        Everything we do is priced in £, so no dice.

        Also we've now got the fun situation of having to fix a £/€ exchange rate, to be able to quote people in £ for new machines to be ordered in a month or more, to be paid for in €. Margins are already rather thin. Fun times.

        1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

          Also we've now got the fun situation of having to fix a £/€ exchange rate, to be able to quote people in £ for new machines to be ordered in a month or more, to be paid for in €.

          So talk to your accountant about currency hedging, there's nothing new or Brexit-specific about that.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

            That's possible, but there's a cost involved in setting up such a facility and for using it, to hedge against the risk of an unfavourable exchange rate movement *IF* the order is actually placed. An unknown % of the quotes will ever come to fruition.

            Plus I'd have to find a new accountant, I don't think they're particularly competent in that area. I doubt the merchant banks would be particularly interested in the vague possibility of dealing with me at this moment, I imagine they're rather busy.

            1. M.Zaccone

              Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

              So you run a business that trades extensively in other currencies but you don't hedge? Jesus...

            2. Nigel 11

              Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

              Plus I'd have to find a new accountant

              Why do you need an accountant to hedge? It's not hard and online brokers happily handle mere three-digit trades in major currencies. You take an order for x dollars which you you can expect to be paid in two months' time and on that basis have to buy materials costing y pounds now. You can sell some dollars equalling y pounds two months forward at a rate known today. You can also look up the relevant forward rate for the issuing of quotations. All you need is a forex broker. Two months hence your dollars arrive, a demand for those dollars by your broker becomes due, and the pounds at the agreed rate become available.

              My holiday funds were hedged a few weeks ago. I rather expected this!

      2. Len Silver badge

        Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

        @ Phil O'Sophical A devalued Pound is only beneficial if none of your purchases are in another currency. If you buy cherries from Italy to make "British' jams or buy German parts to produce your machines designed in Britain a company could easily be worse off.

        1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

          @ Phil O'Sophical A devalued Pound is only beneficial if none of your purchases are in another currency.

          Indeed so, but as the original poster clearly said, his company buys parts from Belgium, and sells finished goods to Germany. He wil lose one one, but gain on the other. The sky is not falling.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

            OP here.

            We buy parts and machines in €, so those purchases are say 10% more expensive.

            The German company operates in the UK and we sell services to them priced in £.

            We lose on the import, and gain nothing on the export. We also import a far greater value overall than we export.

        2. Nigel 11

          Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

          If you buy cherries from Italy to make "British' jams or buy German parts to produce your machines designed in Britain a company could easily be worse off.

          Only to the extent that the customers can choose not to buy your product when you are forced to raise your prices. For example, if one of your competitors is making similar machines out of parts manufactured in the UK, or if they switch to blackberry and apple jam made using British fruit, and you don't change your output. If there is no alternative to using German parts you'll just be forced to raise your prices, and your competitors likewise.

      3. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

        "I've never seen such a bunch of glass-half-empty pessimsists :"

        Clearly you are the expert here (not that we need any), and those right in the middle of it know nothing.

        A shrinking economy to the tune of 2 trillion USD in a couple of days is not a problem?

        1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

          A shrinking economy to the tune of 2 trillion USD in a couple of days is not a problem?

          Two days isn't long enough to decide if the economy is shrinking at all, and a twitchy stock market doesn't define a 'shrinking economy" anyway, so no, I don't think there's a problem yet. The markets are still in passably healthy shape over the year so far. We see the same twitchiness after general elections, give it a few months and then review the situation when heads have cooled.

    2. MR J

      Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

      As other posters pointed out.

      Your £GBP parts went up 6%, but your £GBP income went up 6% too.

      Depending on how much stuff you make for the UK market (and fixed contracts) then your company should have became more profitable overnight!..

      Think more of it this way, Their €EU numbers stayed the same, but when they convert it back to £GBP then there's more "numbers" there. So the staff, pension, gov all take home less and the employer takes home more.

      If they can keep this up for a few more months we can rename ourselves to little China ;P.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

        @ MR J

        Please, for the love of God tell me how my £ income has gone up by 6%, considering that if last week a particular machine was hired out for £x/week it is still £x/week this week. The contracts are in Pounds!

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

          The contracts are in Pounds!

          Currency exchange rates are always volatile, look at past experiences with the ERM, Lehman Bros, Nick Leeming, etc. You signed contracts in GBP when you have costs in EUR and didn't hedge, which was unwise. 20/20 hindsight is easy, of course, but if I were you I'd get some serious financial advice before the US presential election comes along in November.

          1. organiser

            Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

            Currency hedging is mainly for corporate clients in UK banks. We have been talking to our bank previously (before this debacle started) because we often buy in USD and some 75% of sales is in the eurozone. We now offer the best prices in USD but also in EUR for convenience but at prices with a decent, inbuilt currency margin. GBP pricing is only for the UK. Nobody outside the UK has ever wanted to pay in Sterling.

      2. jonfr

        Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

        Since I'm from a country that regularly suffers this type of fall in currency (ISK), what you claim is not correct. This fall in the pound is going to increase cost of living, increase inflation, increase interest rates and the list goes on and on when it comes to this.

        In short, this is no good and is going to cost the pubic in the UK billions and that is just in the short term.

        1. Nigel 11

          Re: Even here at the bottom end it's a mess

          This fall in the pound is going to increase cost of living, increase inflation, increase interest rates and the list goes on and on when it comes to this.

          Hasn't the Bank of England been actively trying to increase inflation since the financial crisis? Now something has happened which may actually succeed.

          Compare Japan. (which may also prove that deflation is not always as fearsome as half-digested history of the 1930s would suggest).

  2. Dan 55 Silver badge
    Flame

    There is no fucking way everyone's going to wait

    Things cannot go on as normal while there's three months of House of Cards for the two main political parties and then afterwards work out whether or not there really will be an exit or there'll be new elections or a second referendum or however they want to backtrack.

    They are going to find out they're not as important as they think they are.

    They either come up with a credible routemap now or any argument about the UK pulling out because it pays x million a day to the EU will become academic anyway.

    1. TheOtherHobbes

      Re: There is no fucking way everyone's going to wait

      It already has become academic. One way and another, the leave vote has already cost the UK far more than the UK's entire historical contributions to the EU.

      1. Yes Me Silver badge
        Stop

        Re: There is no fucking way everyone's going to wait

        "It already has become academic." Yes, but the only way back now is for the Commons to vote it down, since 37% of the registered electorate is not a mandate. Tell your MP to vote Brexit down.

        1. organiser

          Re: There is no fucking way everyone's going to wait

          There is also the little issue of stripping the people of an entire nation of a citizenship without a valid reason (which according to international treaties etc is usually fraud, crime etc). I believe that the Vienna convention and the European Convention on Nationality (which the UK has opted out of) may put some blockers in about what the government can do.

  3. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

    Project FUD is alive and well

    more than one-third would continue to hire at the same pace.

    a quarter planned to freeze recruitment, with five per cent expecting to fire staff.

    One in five are considering moving some of their operations outside of the UK

    one per cent will bring operations back.

    So what are the figures for any other July? is this any different from "business as usual?

    1. Naselus

      Re: Project FUD is alive and well

      "So what are the figures for any other July? is this any different from "business as usual?"

      Not got the figures to hand, but I suspect 20% of businesses planning to offshore a big chunk of their workforce and another 25% engaging in a hiring freeze isn't a typical July.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Project FUD is alive and well

        ..and I think the FUD group were the ones saying "ooh, be afraid, there are lots of people with dark skin coming to take your jobs".

        1. MonkeyCee Silver badge

          Re: Project FUD is alive and well

          "..and I think the FUD group were the ones saying "ooh, be afraid, there are lots of people with dark skin coming to take your jobs". "

          I thought it was that Polish/Romanians who would be taking all the jobs. Once the UK is outside the EU, then it'll be migrants from the sub-continent who'll be taking the jobs.

          So I'm pretty sure a Leave vote was anti-EU migrant and pro brown skinned or commonwealth migrant.

          Or the UK could magically solve the labor issues by enforced training and job placement. Since this has yet to be shown to ever work (it's about the worst form of communism), once this has been solved then the UK can lead us all to the new utopia. Oh, and it would require not only controlling where people lived, but also not letting them leave the country ever.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Project FUD is alive and well

            Some of the Brexiters interviewed on TV probably couldn't get a job if the UK was relocated to the moon. No immigration stoppage would ever help them.

          2. strum Silver badge

            Re: Project FUD is alive and well

            >So I'm pretty sure a Leave vote was anti-EU migrant and pro brown skinned or commonwealth migrant.

            Since the heaviest Leave vote came in communities that saw relatively little migration (and the heaviest Remain vote came in communities with the highest migration), there was little logic to their xenophobia.

            They were 'damned immigrants' - allowing xenophobes to imagine whatever hate figure they chose.

      2. organiser

        Re: Project FUD is alive and well

        I took part in the IoD poll. We started contingency planning just after the general election last year when they promised the referendum. As the eurozone is by far our biggest market, we eventually decided to open two offices in the eurozone as well as moving the holding company there. All our hiring has been there, not in the UK. The UK company will be relegated to only serve UK customers.

    2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

      Re: Project FUD is alive and well

      Interesting. I've got 7 downvotes already just for asking a question, and the only attempt at an answer starts "Not got the figures to hand, but I suspect..."

      Anyone who has the figures to hand want to take a stab at an answer?

      1. Yes Me Silver badge
        Mushroom

        Re: Project FUD is alive and well

        I'm all for fact-based thinking, but the fact is that the markets are doing exactly what the Remain side predicted and exactly the opposite of what the Leave liers predicted. There was, and is, no uncertainty and doubt; fear was, and is, fully justified.

        As I keep saying, for heaven's sake email your MP to vote to bring us back from the brink.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Project FUD is alive and well

          'the fact is that the markets are doing exactly what the Remain side predicted and exactly the opposite of what the Leave liers predicted.

          The markets are doing exactly what anyone with any common sense would have expected, their usual chicken little impression because of uncertainty. It's unfortunate that people panic in the face of uncertainty but that's human nature for you. The markets will recover, it would be foolish to react too quickly (well, except to buy sterling, as I did this morning :) )

          As I keep saying, for heaven's sake email your MP to vote to bring us back from the brink.

          Any such vote would be a catastrophic push over the brink. It would leave the UK labelled as Europe's doormat, full of bluster but unable to stay any course. It would be the end of every concession, opt-out and rebate, since the EU could simply majority-vote us out of everything and they know we'd cave in. We'd be in Schengen and the Euro before you know what hit you, and the financial markets would be shipped off to Frankfurt. What a field day Farrago and UKIP would make of that.

          When did we become a nation of cowardly French poodles?

          1. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

            Re: Project FUD is alive and well

            "The markets are doing exactly what anyone with any common sense would have expected, their usual chicken little impression because of uncertainty. It's unfortunate that people panic in the face of uncertainty but that's human nature for you. The markets will recover"

            The markets are correcting for future expectations. What make you think the correction will be un-corrected? There is no guarantee of that. Things could just as well keep sliding down another 5-10% and stay there for 5-10 years.

            "Any such vote would be a catastrophic push over the brink. It would leave the UK labelled as Europe's doormat, full of bluster but unable to stay any course. It would be the end of every concession, opt-out and rebate"

            This is not unlikely. Still a lot better than not being in the EU.

        2. codejunky Silver badge

          Re: Project FUD is alive and well

          @ Yes Me

          "I'm all for fact-based thinking, but the fact is that the markets are doing exactly what the Remain side predicted and exactly the opposite of what the Leave liers predicted. There was, and is, no uncertainty and doubt; fear was, and is, fully justified."

          Actually it seems to be what both predicted. And both predicted it would be a good thing for the UK in the short-mid term and the different opinions were for many years down the line depending on what actions an elected free gov does. The idea that we are all doomed as soon as the vote is over was far more recent FUD.

          I am amused that the leave are accused as liers when we are yet to start WW3. At what time is that again?

        3. Nigel 11

          Re: Project FUD is alive and well

          Two and a half days is only long enough to observe a knee-jerk reaction (which is actually reversing to some degree over the last couple of hours). In a year or two we'll know to what extent project fear was accurate.

          Too late to put the toothpaste back in the tube, anyway. You can blame the EU commission as much as the Cameron government. The fundamental problem is that neither the UK government nor the EU commission has been listening to its citizens for the last two decades.

          If the EU commission wants to fix this problem they'll (finally!) listen and propose treaty changes to (a) allow states to limit freedom of movement within sane limits (roll back to before Maastrict treaty?), and (b) permanently and irrevocably roll back EU law out of all "home" matters which do not directly concern dealings between EU states and (c) address the EU's democratic deficit to reconnect it with its peoples. Then we could hold another referendum on the new and improved settlement, and get the result that UK.gov and EU.gov both wanted.

          Listening to the noises emanating from the palaces in Brussels so far, they still don't recognise this problem. They want the UK out asap. It won't be good for the UK in the next few years, but it will end far worse for the EU and worst for the commissioners in power when TS finally hits TF. The guillotine awaits them, and I'm not at all certain that's a metaphor.

          1. codejunky Silver badge

            Re: Project FUD is alive and well

            @ Nigel 11

            "Listening to the noises emanating from the palaces in Brussels so far, they still don't recognise this problem."

            I think you will be amused by this- http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/06/28/brexit-isnt-about-leaving-todays-european-union-its-about-not-joining-tomorrows/#7de99a05b4b0

            1. Nigel 11

              Re: Project FUD is alive and well

              @codejunky

              Many thanks. He's a better writer than I am!

  4. kmac499

    Growing Sense of bereavement..

    Just like a death, the Brexit result has resulted in an irreversible change. You can't ask a dead granny those questions you always wanted. Now you can't plan a future as an EU citizen because that's gone.

    I'm not accusing, as some have done,. the Leave camp of a being a bunch of ill-educated xenophopic seniors, with some rosy tinted memory of a Darling Buds of May England. But I do think that some of them were duped possibly even conned by the Leave campaign with promises that are patently impossible even after several years of nogotiations; and they are precisley the people who are likely to be hit hardest by the growing consequences.

    Sad Days

    1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

      Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

      I do think that some of them were duped possibly even conned by the Leave campaign with promises that are patently impossible even after several years of nogotiations;

      You could say exactly the same about the Remain campaign, where promises about more control and more independence were just so much hot air.

      The vote was Leave, now we have to make it work. Regretting it, or hoping it was just a bad dream, won't change anything, and trying to make leaving more difficult will only make things worse for everyone.

      We have a once in a generation opportunity that we didn't have a week ago. Sad days perhaps, for those who want an easy life. Happy days for those willing to take that opportunity.

      1. James 51 Silver badge

        Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

        If you're rich, white, from a privileged background and preferably male like most of those leading the leave campaign then yes, you've got lots of opportunities to take advantage of. Everyone else however is in a leaky boat with no paddle. As for just accepting it, if a narrow loss was good enough for Farage to demand another swing at it, I don't see why remain should be any different.

        http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

          If you're rich, white, from a privileged background and preferably male

          More excuses.

          Everyone else however is in a leaky boat with no paddle

          So get off your arse and start plugging leaks, FFS. Don't just sit there hoping a luxury cruise liner will pass by.

          if a narrow loss was good enough for Farage to demand another swing at it, I don't see why remain should be any different.

          By that reckoning the French acceptance of Maastrcht to create the EU (51%) was also invalid.

          You don't seem to realise that one of the very strong driving forces behind the Leave campaign was to get rid of the arrogant EU elite who are so convinced of their own infallibility that anyone who disagrees with them must be wrong, and will be told to vote again, and again, until they "get it right". By taking that same attitude to this vote you define yourself as part of the problem.

          1. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

            Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

            "So get off your arse and start plugging leak"

            Remainers have to do nothing. YOU fix it!

            1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

              Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

              Remainers have to do nothing. YOU fix it!

              Fine, if the remainers will agree not to keep kicking more holes while saying "we're sinking, told you so"

              1. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

                Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                "Fine, if the remainers will agree not to keep kicking more holes while saying "we're sinking, told you so""

                Huh? Who's kicking holes?

              2. Disk0

                Re: kicking more holes

                1. if it is possible to kick a hole in your magnificent ship of state you might want to consider its structural integrity.

                2. After basically steering said ship of state straight into an iceberg, any additional holes created by frightened passengers trying to get out, will add little to the speed at which it was going down already.

                1. codejunky Silver badge

                  Re: kicking more holes

                  @ Disk0

                  "1. if it is possible to kick a hole in your magnificent ship of state you might want to consider its structural integrity.

                  2. After basically steering said ship of state straight into an iceberg, any additional holes created by frightened passengers trying to get out, will add little to the speed at which it was going down already."

                  The good news is we got on a life boat and are getting away. Unfortunately there are some in the EU still insisting its unsinkable! The good news is we are first to the lifeboats and others are right behind us. Good luck to the remaining populations.

              3. Flocke Kroes Silver badge

                Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                Phil, get used to the verbal kicking you are getting from the remainers. You are going to need a really thick skin because when we get bored the next kicking will come from disillusioned Brexits.

            2. Disk0
              Thumb Up

              Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

              How about draft all the "Leave" voters, have them roll up their sleeves and earn back that two trillion before august. Just keep a stiff upper lip and get it done chaps!

              I'll put the kettle on. Teas will be seventy pounds, with cream 110.

          2. James 51 Silver badge

            Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

            If you're rich, white, from a privileged background and preferably male

            More excuses.

            No an excuse, just a fact. Looking around at the leaders of both campaigns there wasn't much diversity in them. The few faces who didn't fit were put in the public eye as much as possible to counter the impression that it is otherwise.

            So get off your arse and start plugging leaks, FFS. Don't just sit there hoping a luxury cruise liner will pass by.

            How? I voted remain, my local politicians campaigned for remain and I've been telling everyone who would listen for months than brexit was a bad idea. What else do you suggest?

            You don't seem to realise that one of the very strong driving forces behind the Leave campaign was to get rid of the arrogant EU elite who are so convinced of their own infallibility that anyone who disagrees with them must be wrong, and will be told to vote again, and again, until they "get it right".

            You do realise you just described the leadership of both campaigns and Farage in particular? The leave campaign has come out and said most if not all of what they promised will never happen. If I was going to be unkind I'd say they knowingly lied to the British public. A lot of what the remain campaign said would happen has come to pass.

            Brussels has done stuff like protect all of us from 90 detention, safe harbour failures, privacy invasion on a grand scale from our own government, clean beaches and clean water and many more things like that.

            There is a scene in the West Wing were a poll tells some politicians that some people won't support gun controls and they decide to give up on it until an adviser says this should just spur them into fighting harder and convince enough people that they should change their position. That is the position I think the remain campaign should take. I know it's the position Farage has already said he would take if the roles were reversed.

            1. TheTor

              Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

              [quote]Brussels has done stuff like protect all of us from 90 detention, safe harbour failures, privacy invasion on a grand scale from our own government, clean beaches and clean water and many more things like that.[/quote]

              Because they treat us better than our own government is no reason to blindly give up on democracy. There is no reason we couldn't elect our own government to work towards, and enact for those very same rights (other than the fact that all of the current lot suck more than an EU mandated vacuum, but that's another kettle of fish).

              Remember, we put our current government in power. Our failure to look past which MP would make the best PM based on nothing more than who looks better eating a bacon sandwich is no ones fault but our own.

          3. kmac499

            Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

            "You don't seem to realise that one of the very strong driving forces behind the Leave campaign was to get rid of the arrogant EU elite ......"

            There is absolutely no way I would accept that the politicians or career civil servants running any government or bureaucracy are an elite.. Especially considering the enormous pile of stinking shit we are now in they managed to engineer,

            The politicians have zero training, no formal qualifications, the only 'skill', if it can be seen as such, of a succesful politician is to get their own way. Their way does not need to be correct, based on evidence or the will of their constituents. I despise most of them.

            Yes the Remain campaign screwed up badly. If they even had had the nouse to counter the "Take Back Control" slogan with something like "Taking the UK Forward" they might have done better. Instead of which they fell back on the Party Political lunacy demonising the opposition as vicious destructive heretics and forecasting armageddon.

            Why am I and fellow remainers still banging on about it? Because there is no current exit plan. There was no exit plan just what I beleive are now termed "ambitions" not even targets or promises.

            So OK we're on our way out; but the terms have not been settled. Personally if a Norway option of Single Market, Free Movement, with an annual subscription and no represenation is on offer. Where do I sign.

            (If only for the sheer joy of watching IDS, Michael Gove and Nigel F-Farage spontaneoulsy combust)

            1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

              Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

              There is absolutely no way I would accept that the politicians or career civil servants running any government or bureaucracy are an elite..

              They think they are, that's the problem.

      2. Paul Shirley

        Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

        "The vote was Leave, now we have to make it work."

        No. You have to make it happen. Until then leavers are 'having their cake and eating it', you wanted to leave, start pressing the clowns in westminster to make it happen NOW.

        The leave voters I talked to after the result voted to leave, not to get a better deal. The leave campaign targeted them, time to grow some balls and accept the consequences.

      3. Naselus

        Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

        "You could say exactly the same about the Remain campaign, where promises about more control and more independence were just so much hot air."

        I don't recall the Remain camp making many promises of what would happen if we stayed in, tbh. I do remember them promising that if they lost, the pound would fall, unemployment would go up, there'd be a recession, we wouldn't be able to get access to the common market without following all the rules anyway, hell, even that the price of holidays would go up. Y'know, all the stuff that's actually happened over the last few days.

        Just about the only thing that hasn't happened is Osborne's Brexit Budget (A.K.A the second-longest electorial suicide note in history), and that's only because he honestly still believes he has a chance at No. 10.

        1. James 51 Silver badge

          Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

          I think the budget was delayed so that brexiters would have to be the ones to announce and implement it. Why bother getting your hands doing something you don't want to do and warned everyone about and get the blame for it when you can wait a few months, then point at laugh safe on your big pile of money.

        2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

          the pound would fall, unemployment would go up, there'd be a recession, we wouldn't be able to get access to the common market without following all the rules anyway, hell, even that the price of holidays would go up. Y'know, all the stuff that's actually happened over the last few days.

          No, almost none of it has happened.

          The pound has dropped. A little. Three months ago it was $1.43, now it's $1.37. Not surprising with all the uncertainty, it's only been two working days since the result. It's way too soon to speak of unemployment (which was the lowest in Europe anyway) or a recession, or holidays, or access to the common market.

          Just about the only thing that hasn't happened is Osborne's Brexit Budget

          That was just Remainer FUD.

          1. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

            Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

            "Just about the only thing that hasn't happened is Osborne's Brexit Budget

            That was just Remainer FUD."

            We haven't left yet. A new budget will be needed as soon as we leave, if ever.

            I can't see how we can not have a completely new budget if we leave...

            Obviously Osborne won't want to stoke the flames under the boiling financial market at this exact moment in time.

            1. Naselus
              Joke

              Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

              "Obviously Osborne won't want to stoke the flames under the boiling financial market at this exact moment in time."

              Yes, the last thing we'd want him to do is try and intervene in a plunging market. That's totally not what we expect the guy in charge of the economy to do. I for one also hope Mark Carney isn't doing anything either.

              1. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

                Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                "Yes, the last thing we'd want him to do is try and intervene in a plunging market. That's totally not what we expect the guy in charge of the economy to do. I for one also hope Mark Carney isn't doing anything either."

                I don't think an "emergency budget" would be a suitable intervention.

                The dropping market has to do with future potential. Not balancing the books the next couple of years.

              2. Paul Shirley

                Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                the last thing we'd want him to do is try and intervene in a plunging market.

                I thought we were just going to watch the bank of england piss away £250bil failing to prop up the economy this time?

          2. Naselus

            Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

            "The pound has dropped. A little."

            You've not being keeping an eye on the market if you still think the pound is at $1.37. It's presently on $1.32. Which is an $0.11 drop from three months ago, an $0.18 drop from Thursday night (when it was admittedly significantly over-value from pro-Remain speculation),and a $0.05 drop from where it was when the markets opened. At one point it bounced off the lowest floor since 1985.

            You have a very odd definition of 'a little'.

            1. Nigel 11

              Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

              It's a lot more useful to look at the pound against the Euro, and to wait until the dust has settled on a shock result. The Dollar is strong right now for other reasons. The pound is still well UP on five years ago. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPEUR=X&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

              I'd suggest getting up to speed with what is happening with Italian banks, which has the potential to completely eclipse brexit. (they'll blame it on us, though). And if the EU escapes an even bigger Euro-driven financial blow-up within years, it'll do so by becoming a hybrid of the former USSR and the Austro-Hungarian empire.

              As for the US$ after the election of president Trump ... I hope we never get to find out about that.

          3. DavCrav Silver badge

            Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

            "The pound has dropped. A little. Three months ago it was $1.43, now it's $1.37. "

            $1.32 actually. Do try to keep up, you can't use data from a few days ago, this is an economic crash. It's at a 35-year low, and still falling.

            If you think this is a little spot of bother, what type of economic catastrophe would you need to see to change your mind? Think about that, and if you say something absurd, like 12m unemployed and everyone eating turnips, your decisions are based on ideology rather than reasoning. If you come up with something reasonable, like pound down 20-30 cents, FTSE loses 10%, growth down by 2% on what it was supposed to be, then that's exactly what we have. And here's the point: this is initial reaction, and we haven't actually left yet. This is just reaction to the thought of leaving, not the real damage, which is that Article 50 is designed to massively fuck us over. There will be no informal negotiations, and invoking it leads us down a path where we have no negotiation power at all. We will take the rogering and like it time.

            The reason that nobody planned for this is that there is no good way out. It's like someone deciding to chop off your leg, and then giving you some time to come up with a plan to deal with it. There is no way to make it work, that's why lots of people told you not to vote for it. You know, every single former PM, every University VC, 90-95% of scientists, 90-95% of economists, a dozen Nobel prize winners, all major political parties, and so on. Who told you that it'll be all OK? Boris de Pfeffel Johnson (Eton, Oxford to study classics, fired from the Times for lying about Europe, main reason for Leave: become PM), Michael Gove (Oxford to study English, ex-Times correspondent, main reason for Leave: who knows, ego maybe?) and Nigel Farage (no higher qualifications, ex trader, possessor of stupid facial expressions, main reason for Leave: vanity).

            1. Anonymous Coward
              Anonymous Coward

              Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

              If you come up with something reasonable, like pound down 20-30 cents, FTSE loses 10%, growth down by 2% on what it was supposed to be, then that's exactly what we have.

              No, what we have is market jitters driven by uncertainty and uninformed scaremongering.

              If we have those figures in 6 months time, after Brexit plans have been published and refined, then we'll have a problem.

              1. DavCrav Silver badge

                Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                "No, what we have is market jitters driven by uncertainty and uninformed scaremongering.

                If we have those figures in 6 months time, after Brexit plans have been published and refined, then we'll have a problem."

                Aha. OK, so we've nailed you down now. If it's still all shit in six months' time, when magical Brexit plans will have appeared (hint: nobody knows how to do that), then you are wrong, and conveniently it'll be too late at that point to do anything about it.

                Oh, and S&P knocked Britain's credit rating down two notches already, which will affect people. That's just the latest one since the last set of repercussions from a few hours before that have been mentioned above.

            2. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

              Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

              "90-95% of economists"

              Economists? Probably 110-115% of them. You always have more opinions than you have economists.

          4. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

            "No, almost none of it has happened."

            My pension fund seems to disagree, turning red with shame. The red now spreading to the EU investments in it and the ROW ones aren't enough to keep the ship afloat. Some of the funds made a brave effort to exploit market volatility but it's too little.

      4. DavCrav Silver badge

        Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

        "We have a once in a generation opportunity that we didn't have a week ago."

        Fabulous new opportunities await! There's hanging, electrocution or stabbing! Take your pick.

        Or we could grow up, look at the realities, decide that economic suicide isn't a good plan and ignore the referendum result. You know, like the Greek referendum on the bailout. Or the Irish referendum on the Nice Treaty. And the Lisbon Treaty. And the French referendum on the EU constitution. And the Dutch referendum on it.

        1. codejunky Silver badge

          Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

          @ DavCrav

          "and ignore the referendum result."

          I do find some amusement that the leave campaign was about democracy, and the remain campaign occasionally tried to claim democracy and yet on a democratic vote we have the remain again demanding the end of democracy and leave still pushing it. Interesting.

          Of course ignoring democracy does wonderful things doesnt it? The rise of some of the most notable figures in history. Stalin, Hitler, Kim, etc. And of course the EU looks even more fuzzy and nice if the populace is completely ignored and rode over.

          Surely the idea of growing up would be accepting the rules in place at the beginning of a democratic vote no matter how poorly both official campaigns pushed their ridiculous propaganda. Or to move to a country that doesnt have problems like voting.

          1. DavCrav Silver badge

            Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

            "I do find some amusement that the leave campaign was about democracy, and the remain campaign occasionally tried to claim democracy and yet on a democratic vote we have the remain again demanding the end of democracy and leave still pushing it. Interesting."

            The vote was not democratic. A referendum is only meaningful if it is a clear question with clear outcomes. Remain is clear: carry on as before. Leave is what exactly? EEA, EFTA, bilateral trade deal, WTO rules? Free movement, EU budget contributions, co-operation on science and policing? What? The Leave option is not well defined, and therefore this isn't a democratic referendum. The Leave side constantly conflated all of those options, promising Common market access without Free Movement, something which is not, has never been, and never will be, allowed. Since the Leave campaign and ideas are built upon lies and misinformation, anyone who had any vision of a non-EU future, mutually incompatible visions, could claim it for themselves, and this was actively encouraged by the Leave campaign. It was even mentioned today by de Pfeffel Johnson.

            "Of course ignoring democracy does wonderful things doesnt it? The rise of some of the most notable figures in history. Stalin, Hitler, Kim, etc. And of course the EU looks even more fuzzy and nice if the populace is completely ignored and rode over."

            Right, the undemocratic genocidal side are Remain, not the side engaging in hate crime against the foreigners. I think in a Hitler analogy, those jackboots fit better on the Leave side.

            "Surely the idea of growing up would be accepting the rules in place at the beginning of a democratic vote no matter how poorly both official campaigns pushed their ridiculous propaganda. Or to move to a country that doesnt have problems like voting."

            So, what were the Leave rules in place at the beginning? There were none? Right you are then.

            And anyway, I am guessing I know a lot more about constitutional law than you do, since you seem to think that this non-binding, advisory plebiscite is a mandate for change. It can, and should be, ignored, as a 52/48 split is not a sufficient margin to justify years of pain. 70/30 probably, 80/20 definitely, but 52/48? That is a year of old person deaths/young people turning 18 away from 50/50. It's not a clear mandate to do something so fundamental, so economically catastrophic as Brexit.

            1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

              Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

              "Leave is what exactly? EEA, EFTA, bilateral trade deal, WTO rules? Free movement, EU budget contributions, co-operation on science and policing?"

              You missed out that magic happens once we're out of the EU so we don't have to worry about anything ever going wrong again. I think that was the main thing they had in mind. Either that or the Remainers would sort it all out for them.

            2. codejunky Silver badge

              Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

              @ DavCrav

              "A referendum is only meaningful if it is a clear question with clear outcomes"

              Another failure of the remain side. Unless there is a GE (there isnt) the tories are in charge. Until he lost Cameron insisted he would stay as PM. So Cameron asked the question and tried to blackmail the answer. Didnt work, and yes it was democratic even if both official campaigns were shameful. Again the remain campaign was all FUD and so if they lost we should have another referendum too?

              "The Leave option is not well defined"

              Yes it is. This was a simple referendum of democracy or no. We voted for democracy. The difference is clear between those who accept the result (regardless of beliefs) and those who dont. Now when we have a GE we vote for who we want and that is who we get. There are many reasons, even conflicting to vote leave. Because it allows people to vote for what they want and we can shape our country on our beliefs.

              "Leave campaign and ideas are built upon lies and misinformation"

              The official campaigns on both sides were. However the referendum was called based on facts and the EU is not winning in popularity throughout the EU. The remain group basically put on sandwich boards and screamed about the end of the world if we dont remain. Amusingly a lot of the arguments to remain through the media (the pro papers!) started with how abysmal the EU is... but we should stay. Thats not a reason to stay.

              "Right, the undemocratic genocidal side are Remain, not the side engaging in hate crime against the foreigners. I think in a Hitler analogy, those jackboots fit better on the Leave side."

              That really reads wrong to me. I will agree with undemocratic but I dont recall saying you were genocidal. But you are suggesting the result be ignored because you disagree with the opposing view, and your blaming them to ease your conscience (I have not committed hate crime) yet you feel we shouldnt be seen as equal (democratic vote) because we are uninformed or malicious. And so your will should be imposed maybe?

              "So, what were the Leave rules in place at the beginning? There were none? Right you are then."

              Come back with the goal posts. Compare the rubbish you wrote against what your responding to- "accepting the rules in place at the beginning of a democratic vote". The rules of the democratic vote to get a majority on our membership of the EU. Both sides make their case (I agree the official campaigns were both garbage) and the people vote.

              "It can, and should be, ignored, as a 52/48 split is not a sufficient margin to justify years of pain. 70/30 probably, 80/20 definitely, but 52/48? That is a year of old person deaths/young people turning 18 away from 50/50."

              You must really love those goal posts. But this is why the rules are agreed before the contest not after. I hear this argument a lot and I agree, such a small vote of support is not a mandate. And as the very first vote on our participation of the EU it is not a mandate to be part of the EU nor to justify the many years of pain. We were taken into it without choice after many promised votes and now we have had it, after the EU has had the chance to show us its wonder, and we voted out and certainly no majority 70/30 nor 80/20 to be in it.

              1. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

                Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                "And as the very first vote on our participation of the EU it is not a mandate to be part of the EU nor to justify the many years of pain."

                EU has caused us many years of pain?

                You must be kidding?

                Aren't the bananas bent enough for you? Please point out all horrible things the EU has done.

                1. codejunky Silver badge

                  Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                  @ anonymous boring coward

                  "Aren't the bananas bent enough for you? Please point out all horrible things the EU has done."

                  Erm please tell me your joking. How many crisis is the EU currently going through? How long have they been going on? This mighty trade protection racket. The place that writes a law over the shape of a banana. A war in Ukraine leading to the current tensions with Russia. Lies such as not using the £ to prop up the Euro, then doing it anyway. And while you ask what is wrong with the EU there is a queue for the door which we are at the front of.

                  1. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

                    Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                    Christ.. You blame all ills in the world on the EU?

                    Perhaps get off that diet of tabloid crap?

                    Now go and listen to Osborne on the BBC website: "Life will not be 'economically rosy' outside EU" for a reality check.

                    1. codejunky Silver badge

                      Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                      @ anonymous boring coward

                      "Christ.. You blame all ills in the world on the EU?"

                      Erm, what? I didnt mention the ills of the world, that comment was only the ills of the EU. I promise you the world does not end at the EU's borders, it is bigger! And all those crisis that the EU is suffering, is in the EU but not the whole world!

                      1. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

                        Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                        Look, any parliament anywhere has a lot of bickering going on. Just because the Sun (or similar merde paper) keeps highlighting it, this doesn't mean that it's in crisis.

                        And that joke about banana rules is just that. Irrelevant. Don't you think the UK has a shed load of rules? Broaden your horizons just a bit.

                        1. codejunky Silver badge

                          Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                          @ anonymous boring coward

                          "Look, any parliament anywhere has a lot of bickering going on."

                          Erm I dont think you understand. Not just bickering politicians without unity but crisis. Continuing, deepening, life destroying crisis. High unemployment, High youth unemployment, economic, etc and you think thats just bickering? Whats Greece? A minor hiccup? And that crisis is repeatedly highlighted every time the negotiations come around again.

                          "And that joke about banana rules is just that"

                          Joke? 6 months and/or a 5000 euro fine isnt it? I have heard funnier, thats cringe-worthy.

                          I dont think this conversation will go very far. You seem to have a different view of what is happening in the EU and I am uncomfortable at the glossing over of crisis as 'bickering'.

                          1. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

                            Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

                            Explain why the UK, with its own currency, is affected by this?

          2. strum Silver badge

            Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

            >Surely the idea of growing up would be accepting the rules in place at the beginning of a democratic vote no matter how poorly both official campaigns pushed their ridiculous propaganda

            I agree. Let's accept the 1975 result. No re-runs.

            1. codejunky Silver badge

              Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

              @ strum

              "I agree. Let's accept the 1975 result. No re-runs."

              Deal. So we voted into the common market and out of the EU. Now that was quick.

        2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

          Or we could grow up,

          Yes Daddy. I'm sure you know what's best for us stupid little children.

          look at the realities, decide that economic suicide isn't a good plan and ignore the referendum result. You know, like the Greek referendum on the bailout. Or the Irish referendum on the Nice Treaty. And the Lisbon Treaty.

          Yes, and while we' re at it we could forget those "election" things, we obviously don't know enough to make the right decisions about who will rule us. Let's just name Vati Juncker "King of Europe" and go back to minding our sheep.

      5. Mike Shepherd

        Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

        "We have a once in a generation opportunity that we didn't have a week ago..."

        Is this from the Boy Scout's Book of Management? If you have a problem, tell people it's a "challenge" or an "opportunity". Do you seriously think you're fooling anyone?

      6. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: Growing Sense of bereavement..

        "The vote was Leave, now we have to make it work."

        Who's this "we"? The Leave campaign got what they wanted, now it's up to them to make it work. AFAICS the only thing Boris & co seem to be offering is back-pedalling. Perhaps they're waiting for the pixie dust to arrive.

  5. Len Silver badge
    Alert

    Give us the emergency budget!

    I think it's a bit rich to wait months with an emergency budget.

    The pound has plummeted, tax receipts will already be lower while borrowing has gotten more expensive due to the UK's downgraded credit rating. The chancellor will now need to increase borrowing, at a higher cost, to try and keep things ticking over as best as possible but we are kept in the dark about his budget plans.

    I understand he doesn't want to bring the bad news that is not of his making. He should resign immediately and hand over the reigns to a successor from the Leave camp of his party. That means that at least the bringing of the bad news and the responsibility rests with a single person.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Give us the emergency budget!

      due to the UK's downgraded credit rating.

      Really? Which downgraded credit rating is that?

      S&P is AAA with negative outlook. Moody's is Aa1 with negative outlook. Fitch's is AA+ with stable outlook. The outlook has changed, none of the ratings has.

      1. Alan Brown Silver badge

        Re: Give us the emergency budget!

        "Really? Which downgraded credit rating is that?"

        The one from S&P which just went from AAA- to AA- (BBC breaking headlines just as I read the comment.)

      2. gmogmo

        Re: Give us the emergency budget!

        This:

        http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-s-p-idUSKCN0ZD2EM

    2. James 51 Silver badge

      Re: Give us the emergency budget!

      One article pointed out that by announcing his standing down, Cameron had outmaneuvered the brexiters. They were hoping that he would be the one who would have to do all the painful things and leave them with their hands clean. That's why they were so keen for him to stay. Waiting for the new budget is in part to show how unprepared the leave campaign is for its 'victory' and is the new 'There's no money left.' note. Plus the blame for all those cuts and tax hikes will be with the Brexiter (probably Boris) who wins the leadership contest rather than the Cameron putting the blame squarely and fairly were it belongs.

    3. Naselus

      Re: Give us the emergency budget!

      "I think it's a bit rich to wait months with an emergency budget."

      It's certainly stretching the definition of the term 'Emergency' a fair bit, isn't it? I mean, if I ring for an emergency plumber at 2am and he doesn't show up til 7 I get pissed off, let alone if he says 'there's no rush, I'm retiring in three months and my apprentice will pop over after he's taken over'.

    4. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

      Re: Give us the emergency budget!

      "He should resign immediately and hand over the reigns to a successor from the Leave camp of his party. That means that at least the bringing of the bad news and the responsibility rests with a single person."

      He probably does not have much confidence in the ability of any of the Brexiters, so we should be grateful that he does sacrifice himself for the benefit all of us.

  6. WarwickHunt69

    Yes, yay independence. We will not have to adhere to ALL the EU's rules but we will have access to the market and that's what Boris has been suggesting all along. Our vote was almost useless anyway and the world's a lot bigger than the EU.

    You aren't in a good position there and I'm not saying things are in good shape now though - nor for the other EU countries. This will take time.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      At the risk of degenerating this into insults - you, sir, are a clueless twat.

      1. Dan 55 Silver badge

        Boris, ever since Friday, has been saying stuff that points his idea of an exit from the EU is that the UK becomes an EEA country. I don't think that what was people voted for.

        But who can tell, tomorrow he'll say something else. Post-truth politics, innit. He'll just shit out another Telegraph column.

        1. jonfr

          No EEA for UK

          @Dan 55, That option is not an option for the UK. EEA is an EFTA deal, if it was an option it would mean that UK would have to rejoin EFTA, that they left for EEC in 1973 (now EU). However, EU has sad that no such agreement is an option for the UK or any other country, they are either members or not. Switzerland option is not an option for UK, since EU no longer makes such deals today.

          Switzerland agreements and EEA are relics from a time long gone, this was mostly used during cold war era and before current treaty of Lisbon. Today, a country is either an EU member or not.

          ENP countries that have free trade agreements with EU do so for one reason only. They are on the way to become EU members (if in Europe). But due to historical reasons and other reasons, the path to membership of the EU is difficult and long.

    2. NinjasFTW

      I keep hearing people say that we will still have access to the single market but i'm yet to actually see anything that will confirm this. Boris mentioned it again in a column today.

      I know that the Swiss (and others?) have access without being members but they have do all the things that the Brexiteers don't want to do such as payments and agreeing to EU rules on a lot of things etc.

      Is there an agreed method by which we get access to the single market without all the conditions attached? It would be appealing if there was but it sounds a bit like wishful thinking!

      1. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

        "Is there an agreed method by which we get access to the single market without all the conditions attached?"

        No, of course not.

        1. Dan 55 Silver badge

          Switzerland is an EFTA country (bilateral agreements with the EU) which unilaterally pulled out of free movement. That's expensive to do, the EU made things difficult for Switzerland in other areas that Switzerland is getting round by spending a lot of money.

      2. Len Silver badge

        "Is there an agreed method by which we get access to the single market without all the conditions attached?"

        No, that is why the Brexiteers have scored a massive own goal. The new government will be with its economical back to the wall and will have to accept a Norway scenario (but without Norway's riches) where they get to implement EU law, Freedom of Movement and perhaps even Schengen (like Norway and Switzerland) without a seat at the table any more.

        Call it what you will, I call it the Own Goal Scenario but a lose-lose scenario seems apt as well.

      3. Disk0
        Megaphone

        Re: Wishful thinking

        Is probably at the root of the situation but yeah. EU, much like any club, is members only, fees are due, rules need to be followed.

        The UK has decided it wants to cut ties with the EU, and cancel the membership, so the benefits that came with the membership also will be cancelled.

        Just like when you cancel your Internet subscription you will not be able to shop on Amazon.

        Or like the Rotary won't appreciate me barging in there with a dozen drunk hooligan friends to plunder the bufffet.

        1. kmac499
          Happy

          Re: Wishful thinking

          "Or like the Rotary won't appreciate me barging in there with a dozen drunk hooligan friends to plunder the bufffet."

          Why do I feel you're not making this bit up....

        2. Nigel 11

          Re: Wishful thinking

          I wonder what would happen if the UK is simply forced out on WTO MFN trading rules. (Will, if the EU is even more stupid than even I think). Tarriff barriers work both ways. So that's an incentive for UK consumers to buy cars etc. from other countries that we can negotiate trade deals with, rather than the EU. Also a new source of income for the UK Treasury.

          The reason that it shouldn't happen is that it'll hurt both of us, but it'll hurt the EU more than the UK, and Germany more than other parts of the EU. Biggest single loser? Probably VAG (Volkswagen Autogruppe).

          Anything other than free trade is a negative-sum game in the long term, but in the short term it hurts the country with the trade surplus more than the one with the deficit.

          1. James 51 Silver badge
            Facepalm

            Re: Wishful thinking

            If Frankfurt tells Berlin 'Hey, we'll bring in ten times what the auto industry is worth of you can take London down a peg or two.' your argument is then set on quick sand.

      4. breakfast
        Trollface

        If I was the EU I would accept the UK's pleading to be in the EEA, with the usual constraints. I would charge £350 million per week for it. No rebate.

      5. Alan Brown Silver badge

        "I keep hearing people say that we will still have access to the single market but i'm yet to actually see anything that will confirm this."

        Given the issue of "pour encourager les autres", anyone claiming this is dreaming.

        The UK will have to renegotiate ALL its access and lose ALL its concessions in order to get them.

      6. Paul Shirley

        "Is there an agreed method by which we get access to the single market without all the conditions attached?"

        43years trying to opt out of obligations by the UK is pretty good proof there's no way to pick and choose what you want apart from the big things like the Euro (and that window is gone).

        Article 50 is a remarkably simple document with one obvious omission: it guarantees at least 2 years negotiation by the EU but negotiation in good faith is only implied, not specified.

        When Boris is finally compelled by an angry electorate to deliver on brexit, the moment he stops negotiating in good faith there's nothing to compel the EU to show it either. And given the history of resisting the separation of benefits from obligations when dealing in or with the EU, there's not an honest court on the planet that would think refusing that was bad faith anyway.

        Boris, Gove, whoever takes the poisoned chalice has a lot of explaining to do. And the "TakeBackControl" voters he'll be explaining it to aren't ones I'd want to piss off, as various migrants are sadly discovering today.

  7. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Keep calm and

    PANIC!!!!!!!

    not that anyone would NOT trust the honorable gentleman up front there... there, you, stop hiding! Oy, go get him people!!!

    1. organiser

      Re: Keep calm and

      I suppose there will soon be a referendum to reinstate hanging?

  8. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Never mind the economic impact, the worst thing about leaving the EU is that the media are not going to shut up about it for years.

    The Remain camp should have had a campaign slogan of "A vote for leaving is a vote for journalism."

  9. Naselus

    On the plus side

    At least George has finally stopped weeping in the shower about how he'll never get to be PM now, like he was doing all weekend.

    Of course, the fact that he's back in action might spook markets even more, given his abysmal record in office.

    1. Nigel 11

      Re: On the plus side

      Osborne - the worst chancellor, since, er, Gordon Brown?

      His meddling with stamp duty is particularly counter-productive. He ought to have scrapped stamp duty on all houses under about £1M. Charging older folks to downsize creates a shortage of family-size homes on the market. Charging them an extra 3% to buy a small house first, move at leisure, and sell the old family home once they are sure it was the right decision, will make it ten times worse. And just why is buying houses to let out something to discourage? Until you are married with children there are definite advantages to renting, such as remaining able to take a better job that requires relocating without that relocation costing you very many thousands of pounds.

      If the money absolutely had to be raised (and it probably did) then just bite the bullet and raise income tax, basic and higher rates alike.

  10. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    My worry is not so much the economy but that things could get nasty on a social level - I see the Mail and Express are already reverting to the 1930s.

    First thing my (student) son asked me on Friday was whether I had a copy of my father's (Irish) birth certificate, on the assumption that:

    - the Scots will never be allowed independence now,

    - his future job prospects are likely to be improved by having access to an EU passport.

    1. Julian Bradfield

      I suspect that if Scotland decides for independence (and I'm one of the English immigrants who voted No last time and will vote Yes this time), and Westminster tries to deny it, we'll just take it.

      1. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

        Please hold that gangplank! I'm boarding..

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Hmm, an independent Scotland, with all EU trade having to go the long way round by boat, or transit a non-EU England. If it wants to join the EU it will have to show its economy is in good shape for the two years of the convergence criteria years (despite diminishing oil income) and agree to accept the Euro.

        Frankly if it wants to leave, I'd let it go, as long as I got off first.

        1. Naselus

          Scottish independence would be suicidal atm, tbh. They'd need to adopt the Euro (which is also in the shitter from the EU just becoming 13% smaller), and their budget from the last referendum assumed Brent Crude would remain at $115 a barrel in perpetuity... it's currently at $48.

          Indyref2 would be followed by 30 years of austerity, a collapse in the entire Scottish welfare state, privatization of the Scottish university system (no more fee tuition fees), and a brutal backlash against the SNP. Which is why Saint Sturgeon's position has shifted from Friday morning's 'we're going to have another referendum' to yesterday morning's 'the Scottish parliament can veto Brexit'... she's been told that any independence campaign conducted right now would be economic suicide (and worse, economic suicide the Scots may actually accept).

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            I don't think there was ever any serious possibility of another Scottish independence vote for the next 2 years, i.e. until we're much closer to pinning down the major changes due to leaving the EU (the minor ones will probably take another 5 years to sort out). Much like the "Scots/MPs/Lords will veto exit" stories, an early independence vote is more a media confection than anything real.

            While it would be interesting to see if the SNP have learnt their lessons from the previous attempt (top of which is that its not *their* campaign), I don't see the Brexiteers who will be running the government letting them anywhere near another vote.

          2. Alan Brown Silver badge

            "and their budget from the last referendum assumed Brent Crude would remain at $115 a barrel in perpetuity... it's currently at $48."

            The current stupidly low price of oil is due to a trade war run by the House of Saud in order to bankrupt "tight oil" producers (tar sands, bakken shales) and is massively depleting their resources - to the point where they're borrowing vast amount of money to keep their lavish welfare schemes running.

            When (not if) oil prices rebound they'll go much higher than $115/barrel.

          3. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

            But it would allow a few million Scots - and English who moved there 5mins before the vote - to score an Eu passport and emigrate.

            Who cares what happens to the schemies left behind ?

        2. Lars Silver badge

          "transit a non-EU England" will make no difference, just like passing through Switzerland. There are international agreements for those thins.

          1. This post has been deleted by its author

      3. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        "we'll just take it."

        So, outside the UK and outside the EU? That's real independence. What, you thought they'd let you join, just like that?

    2. Hollerithevo Silver badge

      Irish passport

      My father-in-law had an Irish mother, and if he gets an Irish passport, as he is seriously thinking of doing, then my wife can get one once he has one, as the daughter of an Irish passport holder. While our marriage would not be recognised in Ireland, we could go to the Netherlands or Spain, where it is recognised and then I, as the spouse of an Irish passport holder, could get Dutch or Spanish citizenship, and given our jobs, that would be great. So father-in-law is being encouraged quite strenuously.

      1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: Irish passport

        "While our marriage would not be recognised in Ireland,"

        What? Do you mean the UK ambassador to Ireland is living in sin?

      2. MonkeyCee Silver badge

        Re: Irish passport

        "we could go to the Netherlands or Spain, where it is recognised and then I, as the spouse of an Irish passport holder, could get Dutch or Spanish citizenship, and given our jobs, that would be great. So father-in-law is being encouraged quite strenuously."

        I'd be careful about this. Usually a marriage is recognised or not by all countries involved. If in the passport issuing country you are not married, then you can't transfer it over.

        Not sure about Spain, but for the Netherlands (since I"m looking at that now) to get nationality you need to be married to a Dutch national, or to have lived here for 5+ years and give up your current nationalities. Oh, and have B2 level Dutch, whatever path. So unless your missus is Dutch, I'd suggest something else.

        The first step would be to get *properly* married (to whatever standard the Irish require) after your wife has her Irish passport, then apply for an Irish passport.

        If you're eligible for Spanish or Dutch nationality directly, then apply directly :)

        1. Dan 55 Silver badge

          Re: Irish passport

          When (if) Brexit happens and assuming you can't get Spanish nationality because of ancestry, you could get residency as a non-EU family member. Then you would need 10* years of constant uninterrupted residency to get Spanish nationality. You would need to be able to speak Spanish and have paid social security stamps for most of that time.

          You would need to give up your British nationality but Britain allows you to renounce your British nationality to gain Spanish (or any other) nationality and then immediately apply to recover your British nationality again.

          * Yep, 10, unless you have Spanish grandparents or ancestry from South America, Andorra, Philippines, Equatorial Guinea, or Portugal, or Sephardic Jewish ancestry in which case it's two.

    3. jonfr

      Scotland is going to leave England+Wales

      Scotland is going to leave England+Wales, so is Northern Ireland, I'm just less sure how that is going to work it self out.

      Scotland (5,3 million) has a population close that of Denmark (5,5 million). They can easily be on their own as a independent country.

      Northern Ireland has the population of 1,8 million. That is close to being the same population as Latvia (1,9 million). This is good enough to independent nation and to join the EU again proper. Not saying the change is going to be easy, it never is. But it can be done and I think it is going to get done once the UK is out of the EU (for the next 60 + years as England + Wales).

    4. Nigel 11

      - the Scots will never be allowed independence now,

      Sigh. Is that a Scots Nationalist talking or just someone taken in by their self-serving propaganda?

      The (financially) best thing that could happen for England outside the EU is if Scotland was offered another independence referendum with the choice of leaving the UK and remaining in the EU or staying in the UK, and voted to leave. This would save the English Treasury about fifteen billion pounds per annum. That's the taxes raised in England and spent in Scotland that keeps this Kingdom United (or has done so far).

      The next best thing would be if the Scots voted to stay in the UK and leave the EU with us. It would bury the nationalists for a good few decades, and I don't actually grudge the South of the country properly subsidizing the poorer North. One of the myriad problems of the EU is that Germany *does* grudge subsidizing ... well, everyone else. To be fair to Germany, the rest is 80+% of the whole, whereas in the UK it is 10% (more if you include Wales, Northern Ireland, and the far north of England, but under 50%).

      I'm quite certain that once the Article 50 proceedings are completed, Scotland will be offered the above choice. England can't lose whatever the Scots decide. I'd be really sad for them if they chose the EU, but that would be another tube of toothpaste that could not be refilled.

  11. Eclectic Man
    Joke

    A message form our former EU partners:

    "So long, and thanks for all the fish."

    <I'll get me coat.>

  12. anonymous boring coward Silver badge

    Sabotaging Brexit?

    I assume that Boris could start forming a new government right now, after a short shuffle, but for some reason he is not doing that. I wonder why? (Rethorical question)

    1. Lars Silver badge

      Re: Sabotaging Brexit?

      When was he elected PM?.

  13. Alan Brown Silver badge

    article 50

    "Osborn stated the fact that Article 50 could only be triggered by the UK – not the EU."

    This is correct

    However if there is too much foot-dragging the EU can fire up article 7 and eject the UK anyway.

    Given the huge number of concessions that the UK had, what happened with the most recent round of UK demands was Cameron getting given enough rope to hang himself - which he promptly did.

    The UK _might_ be allowed to stay - but you can guarantee that most of the concessions won't be retained in such an event.

    1. organiser

      Re: article 50

      Absolutely true. After having revealed ourselves as such ungrateful bastards, we would have to accept the same conditions as everybody else.

  14. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

    "If we have those figures in 6 months time, after Brexit plans have been published and refined, then we'll have a problem."

    True. What do you expect the value of that if clause to be?

  15. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Watching Hard Talk on BBC with the former Polish Foreign Minister (I think it was) really gives some perspective. Try catching that! It's probably on iPlayer.

    One thing that came up is the way the tabloid media is dishing out lies and hate constantly (my own stronger words). I honestly believe that the tabloid press is keeping this country down and relegating it to a second division now after Brexit. I don't understand what their agenda is. Is it really only to make money by constantly stoking the anger of the disenfranchised? Or is there a more sinister plan?

    I do know that some journalists in the tabloid press are fairly thick though (especially for a journalist). Perhaps they fear the day a foreigner "takes" their job?

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