back to article Ireland's tech sector fears fallout of Brexit 'Yes' vote

The Republic of Ireland’s IT industry would be damaged if its second-biggest trading partner Britain left the European Union. Firms are concerned about the impact on exports - particularly if the British economy and sterling hit the skids. Some think Ireland could benefit from international firms wanting an English-speaking …

  1. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    "no fixed controls on the land border between Northern Ireland and the republic"

    During The Troubles, the border was porous to people and weapons - and that was with the Army and the police trying to monitor and interdict - and thence to mainland UK.

    1. DougS Silver badge

      Re: "no fixed controls on the land border between Northern Ireland and the republic"

      How come you didn't build a wall, and make the Irish pay for it?

      1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

        Re: "no fixed controls on the land border between Northern Ireland and the republic"

        Because there was never any terrorism in, or due to, the northern Ireland situation.

        The UK government was quite firm that these were criminal not political activities

        Now any parking offence in London is considered terrorism - I wonder what has changed?

      2. joeW

        Re: "no fixed controls on the land border between Northern Ireland and the republic"

        Because if they'd tried to make us pay for a wall in the 70s and 80s, we would only have been able to afford one that was two feet tall and make of chipboard.

        1. Ben Boyle

          Re: "no fixed controls on the land border between Northern Ireland and the republic"

          @joeW... I will not make a leprechaun joke... I will not make a leprechaun joke... I will not make a leprechaun joke... I will not make a leprechaun joke...

      3. Roger Mew

        Re: "no fixed controls on the land border between Northern Ireland and the republic"

        They did they called it religion!

    2. Teiwaz Silver badge

      Re: "no fixed controls on the land border between Northern Ireland and the republic"

      "During The Troubles, the border was porous to people and weapons - and that was with the Army and the police trying to monitor and interdict - and thence to mainland UK."

      - Yeah? You should have tried paint-balling (or even live D&D) in the border counties during that era, guaranteed within within an hour, you've attracted military presence!!

  2. joeW

    That's a change

    Whatever happened to "Brits Out!!"?

  3. disgustedoftunbridgewells Silver badge

    Who says the euro wouldn't also tank if Britain left.

    The GDP of the EU would drop by over 16% overnight and Germany would potentially lose its third largest export market.

    It could potentially fall further than sterling, seeing as the EU is being held together with gaffa tape, at the periphery.

    1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

      Nonsense.

      While the UK leaving would be politically disruptive and this, in turn, could severely impair trade for lots of countries, the facts are that the UK is far more dependent upon the EU for trade than the other way round. Not that trade would cease but access to the single market would be more important to the UK than access to the UK for the EU. And, guess what? The rules for trading with the single market will be the same in two years as they are now, except that the UK won't be involved in setting those rules. There's also no room for bilateral trade deals.

      As for the currency: well, much to my own personal annoyance, the ECB is doing its level best to keep the Euro down.

      Both campaigns in this sordid and rather pointless referendum are very poor. I think Mervyn King put this point very well in his interview with Richard Quest on CNN: where are the arguments.

      As a UK citizen living and working in Germany I'm proud to be both English and European and I will be voting for the UK to stay in the EU.

      1. Dr. Mouse Silver badge

        "Both campaigns in this sordid and rather pointless referendum are very poor. I think Mervyn King put this point very well in his interview with Richard Quest on CNN: where are the arguments."

        The one thing I know about his referendum is that noone knows the future. There have been groups analysing potential consequences of both outcomes, and there have been varied results.

        My own view is that there are more positives than negatives to staying in the EU, so that's how I currently intend to vote. However, I don't think either result would have the disastrous effect that the campaigns would have us believe. Life will go on, babies will be born, politicians will lie, we'll pay our taxes and then we'll die. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.

        1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

          However, I don't think either result would have the disastrous effect that the campaigns would have us believe.

          Overall neither do I. But for some people and some businesses leaving will be very disruptive indeed and possibly even disastrous.

          1. Dr. Mouse Silver badge

            But for some people and some businesses leaving will be very disruptive indeed and possibly even disastrous.

            I agree, and yet I would bet that for some people and businesses there would be a very positive effect. They probably wouldn't entirely balance out, but overall I doubt there would be a significant impact.

            One thing that is certain, though, is that no one knows for certain what will happen either way. Except, maybe, psychics, if there are any true psychics out there. Oh, and of course His Noodleyness the Flying Spaghetti Monster, although he's too drunk to care what happens in the referendum.

          2. Captain Queeg

            That depends

            I'll start this post by declaring an interest, I'm pro-in. Always have been but the reasons are nuanced.

            If you compare, broadly (and I'm sure if you look, you'll find dissenters, but I said broadly and arguing that misses the point) the Pro Union Scottish referendum voices are now the Brexit voices. That worries me - It seems to make the case selectively and always for London governs. For me, not living in the South East, that makes me incredibly uncomfortable. Gove has said that Brexit will make us stronger but previously said that Scottish independence would make Putin stronger.

            The UK economy is already largely run for the benefit of London and the home counties (look at the concern for the London House price bubble and considerations of national policies to control it that hurt everywhere else) - take away a strong counterbalance and suddenly the whole economy is run purely for the benefit of the Home counties.

            If you think I'm over egging this London/SE myopia, i know that when asked to move to Salford some BBC staffers asked, genuinely, " Does Manchester have any restaurants".

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        > As a UK citizen living and working in Germany I'm proud to be both English and European and I will be voting for the UK to stay in the EU.

        Are you sure about that, ex-pats have just lost the right to vote in this one.

        1. Mike Richards Silver badge

          There is a period (I think it's 15 years) during which expats can still vote in the referendum. Beyond that period, the courts have ruled that they are ineligible.

          1. Roger Mew

            I have a letter from the MP about the voting and they were SUPPOSED to have altered that, further if you have not registered by now you cannot. also make sure you do it by proxy. A stra poll of those allowed to vote and had a postal vote in the last election of 1000 questioned, a 1000 did not get votes counted due to late arrival. To me that is a whopping 100% failure!

        2. Charlie Clark Silver badge

          Are you sure about that, ex-pats have just lost the right to vote in this one.

          Yes, I received confirmation of my eligibility the other day.

        3. DiViDeD Silver badge

          @AC Re ex-pats have just lost the right to vote in this one

          Are you sure about that? I've had several emails from uk gov advising me how blessed I am that I get to vote on this one, even though I am firmly of the opinion that, at a distance of 12,000 miles from the action, my opinion really shouldn't count.

        4. ScottK

          No they haven't. Expats can vote as long as they have been registered to vote in the UK within the last 15 years:

          http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/register-to-vote/british-citizens-living-abroad

          I am in Oz and have registered to vote with no issues.

          1. codejunky Silver badge

            Meh

            I have to laugh at the idea that we would be doomed if we do leave the EU, as they are already heading into doomed territory if not already there. The Eurozone has finally recovered to just about 2008 and has unemployment levels of over 10%. Of course there are successful countries in the EU and then those devastated by the Euro but without serious change the EU is doomed (they already know this).

            The remain vote isnt to stay in the current EU, it is to be in an uncertain version of the EU transformed under something called 'ever closer union'.

            Hopefully the EU will manage to fix its problems and the Eurozone either ditched or fixed but the idea that brexit is a huge risk is to ignore remaining as a huge risk. If it doesnt reform it will fail. So what will the reform look like? What are we chaining ourselves to? And will it continue inflicting economic damage while those around it (including the UK currently) continue to grow?

      3. Paul Crawford Silver badge
        Trollface

        Poor?

        "Both campaigns in this sordid and rather pointless referendum are very poor."

        I though that we had stopped talking about Scotland?

        Yes, I'm Scottish and no, I am perfectly aware there were good points on both sides. But "sordid and rather pointless" seems to be how major political decisions with life-long implications are made these days,

      4. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        "that the UK is far more dependent upon the EU for trade than the other way round"

        This is an issue that I've thought about. Taking the hypothetical example of Country A, that deals with 10 other nations [of similar size to each other] in our fictitious trade bloc (TB).

        Country A has half it's export trade with this bloc, and in a lovely symmetrical balance, half its imports come from this bloc.

        One day, a rift (figuratively, or literally - your choice) appears between A and the rest of TB with the result that trade is stopped dead.

        A loses half it's exports, and half it's imports. The remainder of TB lose an equal amount of import/export business with A. But given there is 10 of them, on average each only loses 5% of its exports, and half it's imports. trade in these countries has taken a knock, but it hardly seems fatal.

        Now in a more realistic (for this hypothetical case) situation, A continues trading buying what it needs from somewhere else and trading what it makes somewhere else - but at increased cost relative to the old trade with the TB. Ditto the TB. But the implication is still that the individual elements of the TB suffer less than A.

        1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

          This is an issue that I've thought about. Taking the hypothetical example of Country A, that deals with 10 other nations [of similar size to each other] in our fictitious trade bloc (TB).

          And this assumes that trade with A is spread evenly with countries in TB. In the case of the UK and the EU this most certainly isn't the case. According to The Economist only 1.5% of Romania's trade is with the UK: a lot of member states will find it pretty easy to play hardball in any future negotiations.

      5. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        @Charlie,

        Since the UK buys more from the other EU countries than they buy from it and the UKs traditional trading partners were dumped by the EU there is absolutely no reason why the UK would be any worse off than it is today. In fact it would tent to be better off as an independent trader on the world market.

        As a UK citizen living and working in Germany, if you don't have a UK address and you have been there for more than three years you don't get a vote!

        1. Roger Mew

          Voting its 15 years!

          It was 15 years and is due to or has changed, I have a letter here from the MP confirming that. What has a tent got to do with it?

          The thing is that countries trading with EU countries will want to continue to trade with EU countries. So, Honda, Toyota, will probably have to go, and then of course many of the computer designers etc will want to continue dealing with the EU and their trading partners so they will go. EU banking will go, Mobile phone companies will have to sort their lives out and of course they will no longer be controlled by the EU. Transport will still have to comply with EU rules but a tax on the vehicles may be imposed, and vice verse which will harass trade as well. The fish exports will collapse due to non compliance with EU quotas. Now, lets see about airlines, as they will still have to conform to EU stuff they might as well be EU based. The ss britain will be a sorry place to live for about 20 years and it will never catch up. It will be like when the Romans left. Britain spent many years in the dark ages. I am not suggesting that the british would return to grub huts, but many will be homeless due to the high influx of retired, and often needing medical support, expats.

          Yeah good idea that.

        2. Charlie Clark Silver badge
          Thumb Down

          You clearly don't know what you're talking about.

          As a UK citizen living and working in Germany, if you don't have a UK address and you have been there for more than three years you don't get a vote!

          The cut off is ten years after no longer being registered in the UK. As I would be personally affected by the decision I'm very pleased that I'm being allowed to vote.

          Since the UK buys more from the other EU countries than they buy from it and the UKs traditional trading partners were dumped by the EU there is absolutely no reason why the UK would be any worse off than it is today. In fact it would tent to be better off as an independent trader on the world market.

          First of all: trading won't cease but the terms of trade are likely to change and both sides would suffer. However, the positions are not equal. It's not a brilliant analogy but the sanctions imposed by the EU and Russia on each other after the invasion of Crimea are helpful: EU producers suffered but they are able to look for new markets for their products even at a lower price; Russian consumers have to find new suppliers for what they want. Even without the slump in the oil price it's clear that it's easier to find new markets for good products than new suppliers for banned products. Though you read the odd success story of domestic producers picking up the slack, the sanctions have fuelled inflation in Russia and reduced consumer choice.

          The UK is able to finance it's trade deficit by running a current account surplus as a target for investment. Leaving the EU is very likely to reduce this inward investment (because the UK would no longer provide access to the single market) but the trade deficit is likely to grow because German cars and, to a lesser extent French wine, (these are the examples that the Little Englanders tend to spout) cannot be easily replaced but they can find new markets. The result, until a new equilibrium is found, is likely to be a decline in Sterling and UK living standards.

          It's difficult to quantify any of this but that it is a clear and obvious risk associated with leaving the single market. It's even more difficult to identify areas where the UK has such desirable products for other case (remember the UK has a trade deficit). Moving the legal and financial services to other countries (say Amsterdam or Dublin for access to the EU) or Hong Kong, Singapore Dubai is easy (and already happening). Although HSBC has just decided to keep its base in London, it's easy to see this decision being reversed. In business terms leaving the EU has lots of potential risks and little clear upside.

          But the business side is only part of the argument. Sovereignty would be a reasonable argument if there was that much sovereignty left to gain: the WTO, the UN, the proposed TTIP deal all involve loss of sovereignty.

          Then there is democracy and accountability. Sorry, but I don't find the UK parliamentary system particularly democratic when compared with other EU countries and there are no indications of it becoming more so if the UK leaves the UK or is Swiss-style democracy (devolution + referendums) on the agenda?

          Within the EU the governments of the member states sill wield lots of power with the national veto. The concessions that Cameron has recently wrong out are testimony to this. The European Commission is no less democratic than any Whitehall department or one of the many quangos that governments love to set up.

          But, at the end of the day, my chief motivation for wanting the UK to stay within the EU comes down to the many friends I have throughout Europe and the sense of having possibly overcome the dreadful wars of the 20th century that plagued Europe. My dad's house was bombed int he war and I live in a city that was flattened by British bombs. Talk to anyone from the Warsaw Pact or former Soviet Union and they will tell you much the EU means to them. And, how important it is to keep Britain in it.

      6. Roger Mew

        Do you know I could have written that except I live in France. I bet your IQ is higher than 100

    2. codejunky Silver badge

      @ disgustedoftunbridgewells

      "Who says the euro wouldn't also tank if Britain left."

      Regardless of our continued membership or not the Euro will most likely be tanking further anyway as more crisis are on their way. Amusingly we are told of the doom of us leaving for our country, yet comments in the EU have been made of it destroying them. I doubt our leaving will damage them that badly but they will suffer losing one of the best performing countries in Europe.

      And the fear still stands that if we leave and do well that the damaged economies of the EU will also leave for a better future. There is a lot of desperation to keep us in the EU.

      1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

        Re: @ disgustedoftunbridgewells

        There is a lot of desperation to keep us in the EU.

        It's more like exasperation: "what the fuck are they on about?"

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: @ disgustedoftunbridgewells

        There is a lot of desperation to keep us in the EU.

        I bet the Irish tech sector are desperate to keep the UK in the EU. At the moment they claim to be Irish and so don't need to pay any tax. The moment the UK leaves, then the tech companies hiding from the taxman in the Eire will suddenly loose the double Dutch / Irish tax avoidance sink hole, at least for their UK sales.

        They are one group who must be bricking themselves.

    3. Geronimo!

      You're seeing it too black & white.If Brexit happens the EUR will go down too, for sure. Nevertheless trade between UK and Europe will continue, be it under different regulations.

      GDP PC will drop by ~1.5%, which would destroy -for instance- the growth of Germany (1.7% last year) ... but that would be about it.

      If all connections and trade 'd be cut. So, yes, it will be a small set back for the EU, but we'll manage...

      1. werdsmith Silver badge

        People keep asserting that this will happen or that will happen if brexit etc, and other people keep contradicting them.

        In fact nobody knows what will happen. So they should all shut the fuck up and stop wasting their breath trying to bullshit the rest of us. I'm sick of hearing about it already, it's got very negative on both sides and we already know what the result will be. Let's just have the referendum and then get on with life.

        1. Roger Mew

          So you think you know, well hopefully you think that it will be a stay. The breaking up of the UK to individual countries will almost certainly be the result in the event of Brexit getting their way.

          Scotland almost unanimously want to stay as does NI. Wales it seems also are for staying. So ss britain would be out in the briny.

  4. noboard

    Ireland, they know what they're doing

    With their strong economy, lax attitude to privacy and a business plan of "please come here and we promise not to tax you or hold you to that horrible data protection act".

    As for why people are considering an exit, might have something to do with the current US - EU trade agreement going on behind closed doors. I'm so glad I'm in the EU so we get a say about what goes into this agreement... Oh hold on.

    The only person who's spoken sense on the whole in/out thing is Martin Lewis who summed it up beautifully. If we stay, things will stay pretty much the same short term with minimal risk. If we leave, there's more risk but we may do better or we could do worse. No one will now until we do it.

    Business doesn't like risk, fair enough, but as most businesses would sell out their employees at a moments notice I couldn't give a **** about their thoughts.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Ireland, they know what they're doing

      I think that's the best summation I've read in a while on the whole issue!

    2. Voland's right hand Silver badge

      Re: Ireland, they know what they're doing

      Nice summary.

      What you missed however, is that a trade treaty negotiated by UK alone will also be done by close doors (same people essentially), it will be orders of magnitude worse than whatever Eu manages to negotiate and most importantly, there will be no higher court of law to deem the treaty illegal once it is waved through by the staff on Huge Co payroll who "work" (quotes intended) in the building on the bank of the Thames.

    3. Yag

      Re: Ireland, they know what they're doing

      So...

      - staying is like shooting yourself in the foot

      - leaving is like playing russian roulette.

      well, If I had to choose...

      1. Roger Mew

        Re: Ireland, they know what they're doing

        Russian roulette is in the end always fatal! A foot injury can be normally repaired!

    4. hewbass

      Re: Ireland, they know what they're doing

      One qualifier to your statements:

      Negotiations over TTIP will succeed or fail independently of whether we are in the EU or not. Us not being party to TTIP, if we exit the EU, will not protect us from its bad effects, if we wish to have any trade with its signatories.

    5. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

      Re: Ireland, they know what they're doing

      "I'm so glad I'm in the EU so we get a say about what goes into this agreement... Oh hold on."

      You think not being in the EU will make any difference to when a separate UK version of TTIP comes along immediately afterwards, also negotiated behind closed doors? A non-EU UK will have even less bargaining power with the US and make no mistake, TTIP will come to the UK whatever the result of the referendum.

  5. This post has been deleted by a moderator

    1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

      That assessment misses the pressure applied by the UK banks and government on Ireland to nationalise its failing banks rather than letting them fail, which would have made the bailouts for UK banks even bigger.

    2. web_bod
      FAIL

      in what way does using a pejorative strengthen your case?

  6. Dr Stephen Jones

    Vote what?

    "If it remained straightforward to move between the two countries despite Brexit, Paddy O’Connell anticipates more British IT contractors working in Ireland due the attractions of the stronger euro."

    So much for the headline.

  7. s. pam
    Facepalm

    Que Surprise, is this the same Ireland....?

    The Ireland that offered mega-tax abatement and other financial incentives to USA based companies to come there? Or the same Ireland that helps foreign companies shirk tax responsibilities like Luxembourg? Or the same Ireland that has housed billions of Pounds Punt where their citizens came north of the border for a more favourable exchange rate when they went €uro?

    Nah, must be a different Ireland!

  8. Schlimnitz

    Starting to wonder...

    ...if it wasn't global warming that did for Lewis and Tim after all.

  9. Ironclad

    Corporation Tax

    In the event of an exit from Europe, where trade with the EU becomes more cumbersome, the UK may well find it has to lower it's own Corporation Tax rate to continue to attract foreign companies to invest and base themselves here.

    Given so much corporation tax is avoided anyway, this could prove a pragmatic way to make the UK more attractive outside the EU.

    This would also be bad news for Ireland.

    My suspicion is that alongside lower tax would also come lighter employment regulation (health and safety, pollution etc) and fewer rights for employees.

    1. hewbass

      Re: Corporation Tax

      Yes, life in jolly old blighty will continue much as it has or even improve.

      At least for the 1% of wealth capturers.

      The rest of us will toil under ever increasing inequality wishing that we had the foresight to take degrees in corporate law or finance (instead of engineering or the physical sciences) so that we could also have the opportunity to skim off the wealth created by other people's labour.

      1. MrRimmerSIR!

        Re: Corporation Tax

        Perhaps now is the time to move to one of the many socialist paradises on offer in Europe? I hear things are going splendidly in Greece where a hard Left government has abolished inequality and all Greek shipping magnates are now paying their taxes in full. Keep the Red Flag flying, brother.

        Long live the revolution!

  10. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    BREXIT - vote what?

    It's not about about which politicians you trust.

    It's about which bunch of liars are you gullible enough to believe.

    You can then spend the next 40 years complaining about broken promises...

  11. Roger Mew

    The thing is that mostly, apart from politicians, if the IQ of a person is over 100 they will vote stay, if they live in scotland they will almost certainly vote stay, and NI will vote stay. Also the people that are most likely to vote stay cannot be bothered to fill in polls etc so the likelihood is that the vote to stay will be above 55%.

    If Britain votes to come out there could be a liason between Wales, Scotland and NI and leave the UK and put in to rejoin the EU. That will be fun, ss (slowly Sinking) britain on its own and the rest back in the EU.

    The cost of coming out is likely to cost British people about £2-4000 each, so effectively, the poor will be so poor that they will really be in the shit. Many elderly expats return to UK and will want proper rented accommodation so the people that are most likely to vote leave will be homeless. Many will not be able to pay the higher rents.

    My worry living in France is the pension situation, I may have to co rent with other expats so we have a UK address that has been vacated by the aforesaid poor to keep our pensions.

    Look at the losses in leaving, jobs, - nurses, technical engineers, car plants, computer developers etc and where is there another English speaking country in the EU, oh yes Ireland. Rumour has it that the car maker that makes the car you are always stuck behind its a T..... is looking at Southern Ireland.

    1. if(i == alive) { live_free = true; government = NULL; }

      I cannot see why anybody with an iq above 100 would ever consent to allowing laws and regulations to be made by an unelected chamber.

      Nor can I see any good reason to give away 350million each week with a chance of getting a little of it back IF and only IF we spend it on the latest social engineering project that the EU are pushing.

      I cannot see why anybody would not want to be able to vote out the people who make laws that they do not agree with.

      I cannot see why a country that is a net importer would be concerned about trade deals.

      If we leave and my company wishes to trade with the EU then it is true that it will have to comply with EU regulations, but the most important factor here is that I will not have to comply with said regulations if I choose NOT to trade with the EU.

      Leaving the EU is all about choice:

      Choice to ignore EU regulations and deal with other countries or nationally;

      Choice to elect and un-elect people who make the laws that you are forced to live under;

      Choice over who to do trade deals with and to set their particulars;

      Choice over exactly how to spend 350million every week.

      Leaving the EU is a foot on the path to freedom. We have been caged by the EU for 40 years so it is not too surprising that people are easily scared of being set free, but that does not mean that we should spend the rest of our lives as caged animals. Voting to leave the EU is our one chance at freedom, and we absolutely must take it.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Choice

        I have the choice not to practice safe sex. I have the choice to contract unpleasantness on the unmentionables....

        Doesn't mean I should choose it though. By all means though you do so, if you see choice as the ends rather than the means.

        1. if(i == alive) { live_free = true; government = NULL; }

          Re: Choice

          You misunderstand the argument. A vote to leave the European Union is a facilitator of those choices rather than simply being a choice in itself. That is why we must leave.

      2. John Crisp

        Understanding EU institutions

        "I cannot see why anybody with an iq above 100 would ever consent to allowing laws and regulations to be made by an unelected chamber."

        Would 'Leavers' please properly appraise themselves of exactly how the 'EU' actually works and who really calls the shots before banging on about democracy and the EU, rather than trotting out some headline they read in the Daily Mail.

        Your starter for 10 :

        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_of_the_European_Union

        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Council

        Agreed you may need an IQ above 100 to understand the ramifications.

        For those below that level these bodies are formed by your legally elected representatives....

        :-)

  12. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Britain should go....

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887

    Britain has never really been part of the European project, not in spirit anyway. The UK is far more cozy with the US, and in another life would probably like to be part of US territory. If Britain leaves, Ireland is free to take up its Schengen option, whereas being joined at the hip prevents that from ever happening. It would be good for Ireland to be the sole English speaking country too.

    Initially there will be problems so solve. But things will get done, and it'll bring Ireland closer to its Euro partners without having to play a dual-card as the UK's kid brother. But Ireland definitely needs to tax US corporations. The revenue is badly needed for infrastructure as Ireland trails behind other European nations. Ireland must also waive control over EU privacy, as it just can't be trusted!

  13. Slx

    I'd just point out one major inaccuracy. There was and is freedom of movement of citizens of Ireland between the UK and Republic of Ireland under the Common Travel Area. In fact, we treat each other's citizens as if they're locals in almost every respect. That goes far beyond EU rights.

    However, there was never any free movement of goods and services. We had full customs borders and even an aggressive trade conflict after Irish independence.

    Freedom of movement of goods and services between the two jurisdictions came about as part of the EU.

    There were still people getting charged with smuggling in the 1980s.

    If the uk leaves, Ireland also can't unilaterally negotiate outside of the EU as its a customs union. Any negotiations between the UK and any EU member can only be done with the EU as a single bloc.

    This could be absolutely disastrous for the Irish and northern Irish economy.

    Also it will have a significant impact on British businesses as, like it or not, we are your 5th largest export market and as tightly integrated into many supply chains as a British region.

    You'll also find that Irish disruption channels will likely have to disconnect from the uk and plug into the continent to remain in the single market to access goods and services.

    So, for many uk multiples, retailers, service providers etc this could be as nasty as a significant and wealthy mid sized English region suddenly being unplugged from their network.

    Trade is trade and it's not all one way and pulling the rug from under an established system will inevitably have consequences.

    It's very likely that EU deals will be focused on German needs, not Irish ones so, it's very possible that Ireland may end up disproportionately impacted by this.

    It's also very likely that if that happens we would find constitutional reasons to have a referendum and vote down every EU treaty.

    Whole thing is a complete disaster from what I can see. I'm actually contemplating moving to a less unstable continent! Too many fundamentals in Europe are being called into question all time. I'm fed up with it and may vote with my feet.

  14. Slx

    Just to add to that UK exports to Ireland are worth £27.6 billion / year annually (based on 2014 figures so, due Irish rapid economic recover those have likely increased).

    We are your 5th largest destination for UK goods and services and very deeply connected.

    That is a MASSIVE amount of trade and it will disproportionately impact SMEs, food and drink companies, retailers, services companies, telcos etc and those kinds of non financial service, real businesses on both sides of the Irish Sea that actually sell consumer and business to business products.

    The two economies do a hell of a lot of actual goods and service trading.

  15. Jess

    Everyone seems to be missing the point of the EU

    It prevents all the silly squabbles between the different EU nations from escalating. (Trade wars, hundred year wars, world wars, etc.)

    It seems to me that there are only two likely outcomes of the two year exit negotiations. (To extend it beyond that requires unanimous agreement of all states, which would seem unlikely).

    A complete exit with no agreements. This will result in the obvious tit for tat regulations and actions (perhaps the £35K rule for foreign workers which would then apply to EU workers, might be adopted by the EU for English/UK workers in the EU). Any EU country with an issue with us would be free to screw us over.

    The other option is England becoming simply part of the EEA. This would mean business as usual, (except that we would not have to meet so many environmental and work related minimum standards) however this would be exactly what the kippers wrongly claim the EU is, so is hardly likely to be satisfactory to them.

    Also has it occurred to no-one that after a brexit the EU might offer relocation grants/sweeteners for businesses that wished to remain within the EU (the obvious ones being data centres and multinational EU headquarters)?

    Of course all relevant business decisions will wait until the result of the referendum. (I have already noticed that the contractor market has been a bit dry, with upgrades and expansion being put off, because it would be simpler to buy new kit in the new offices in the event of a brexit vote.)

    If the result of the referendum is overall exit, but with Scotland being stronger remain than they were remain in the UK, then decisions might even be put off until after that had been sorted. (Easier to relocate to a different part of the UK that won't be leaving.)

    Business will assume the worst possible result for the exit conditions and plan for that. The one thing they know is that the UK will remain within the EU for 2 years from the date of notices of withdrawal. (Which in my expectation will be 31st Dec this year, to allow time for a second Scottish referendum.)

    2017 (and perhaps 2018) should be rich pickings for IT contractors (all those relocations) , however it would be very wise to invest any earnings carefully for the drought that will follow. I certainly wouldn't like to be poor in a post brexit England.

  16. Shart Tank

    All this fuss...

    ... and nobody managed to mention Sir Humphrey Appleby?

    Why, the Foreign Office must be overjoyed with all the discussion and no answers. Surely they are pro-europe, aren't they?

    http://youtu.be/37iHSwA1SwE

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