back to article Data centre disk use is spinning down – Wikibon report

Decades of disk domination are coming to a close: Wikibon sees flash replacing disk entirely for primary data storage enterprise and hyper-scale cloud data centres over the next ten years. Disk will still be used as the cheapest and fastest – for the price – bulk-capacity media for archival and other low-access rate data. The …

  1. Trevor_Pott Gold badge

    Nice to see Wikibon more or less in line with my own thoughts on the matter. All companies having a "Tier 0" flash tier by 2020 that handles potentially up to 50% of workloads that would normally be considered "Tier 1". By 2025ish the whole of Tier 1 moved to Flash (or a post-flash technology).

    I think it's possible we'll be able to build enough foundries to handle that.

    It's where people start saying stupid things like "nearline storage will be replaced by flash" or "Tier 1 will be all flash within the next [insert very short timeframe here]" that I start getting tetchy. No, we damned well don't have the fab capacity for either of those scenarios.

    I don't think nearline storage will ever be replaced by flash. It will probably take a post-flash technology to do the job. Meanwhile, Tier 0 applications will be on post-flash technologies by the time we've moved "all" Tier 1 applications to flash (2025ish).

    Tier 2 and lower applications will still likely be on hybrid storage for a long time to come.

  2. Rob Isrob

    What about total PB?

    Wait a second...

    Some of us are paying attention out here, by the way.

    What about this, doesn't HD growth still outpace SSD in the future (see chart in link below):

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/12/09/no_flash_datacentre_takeover/

    Is it no accident WikiBon study doesn't touch on total PB on the floor and ratios SSD<->HD?

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: What about total PB?

      Nope, the future got here early. I sell storage for a living and it's rapidly getting to the point where I can't even give away spinning rust but SSD appetite seems endless. One big bonus to SSD is the "one pool to rule them all" management structure. It really resonates with customers.

  3. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Useless graph

    This graph needs a log scale on the vertical axis.

    Everything looks the same if it all looks like zero. But maybe flash will still be 10 times as expensive as disk - and maybe that will still matter, since the volume of data we store will have gone up by a correspondingly huge factor as well.

    1. DavCrav Silver badge

      Re: Useless graph

      "This graph needs a log scale on the vertical axis.

      Everything looks the same if it all looks like zero. But maybe flash will still be 10 times as expensive as disk - and maybe that will still matter, since the volume of data we store will have gone up by a correspondingly huge factor as well."

      I read that graph as saying "Look! A graph to prove my point! Since I have graphs I can't be wrong!"

  4. Bob H

    In the grand scheme of things most companies don't generate PB of data and capacities are generally more boring than we expect. The idea that capacities would grow exponentially is a little flawed.

  5. ntevanza

    It's not about the hardware.

    It's not about the hardware.

    It's not about the hardware.

    It's not about the hardware.

  6. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    You'll still be buying spinning...

    Because no one is going to invest a $trillion to go and build sufficient flash capacity ijn the next 10 years.

    Thus, flash will reach a base price based on supply-demand and the remainder will be satisfied with spinning rusty stuff.

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