back to article No wristjob, please, we're Apple fans: Just 10% would buy the Apple Watch

Apple's new Watch device is going to sell itself on the basis of appealing to 10 per cent of the fanboi population, according to analysts. Research firm UBS claims that one in ten Apple iPhone owners would be willing to pony up for the fruity wristthing. According to the UBS report, some 10 per cent of iPhone owners were …

  1. Amorous Cowherder
    WTF?

    No one saw that coming! NOT! Apple fans are a discerning bunch, the watch at the very least sounds like a tacky idea ( all sounds very CASIO! ) let alone what it actually looks like.

    1. JDX Gold badge

      With a v1 product, 10% take-up would be a big success story.

      1. goldcd

        It would - and I'm unsure where this smartwatch hatred is coming from.

        Tried a Pebble and liked it, but was always a bit of a faff to use - it could push notifications to my watch, but then you had to go back to your phone to do anything about them.

        2 months into a Moto 360 and loving it. Solely chosen over the other Android wear devices, as it was the least offensive looking. My plastic pebble got a few fugly comments, but I didn't mind (I genuinely liked it not pretending to be something else) - but actually get "that's nice comments" for the 360.

        So, suspect a few of those people might be converted.

        Actually having it on your wrist is pretty useful and like the ability to respond. I'm listening to music as I walk home, it puts a pause button on my screen automatically. One swype and I get more controls.

        I get a WhatsApp message, and I can read it, the thread it was in, and even dictate a response.

        Also other bits and pieces are nice. When walking and using maps, I've previously had to keep looking at my phone. Now can just say "Navigate to blah on foot", and when you look at your watch it simply displays the next turn-by-turn notification on the screen.

        I guess my point is, that it's not going to transform anybody's life. But, if you can get over putting your watch into a Qi cradle alongside your phone each night, there's not really any cost for the benefits.

    2. DrXym Silver badge

      The irony is CASIO is about the only company which has produced a viable smart watch. Their bluetooth G-shock uses a bog standard LCD for its display and a low power bluetooth profile so it can do some limited things with your phone like tell you if your phone is ringing, or there is a reminder or if you get a text.

      Consequently you can tell the time just by looking at the display because it doesn't turn on or off to conserve power. And you don't need to haul around a charger or remember to charge because the battery lasts up to 2 years.

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      bit high

      Does anyone know a person who's bought one??

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: bit high

        Bought what? An Apple Watch? That would be a bit amazing since they are not released yet?

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    And Samsung for their watch take up is probably below 0.5%. So yes 10% would be a huge success but suspect many will wait and see what it's like first before committing to a 'yes'.

    Apple sold about 40m iPhones in one quarter - that probably means 100m+ for the full year - so 10% of just the new phones would be over 10m units and more when you consider people would buy for the older, compatible models as well. 10% of the iPhone installed base would still be a huge hit - a lot of people I see these says wear no watch so you have to convince them to start wearing one again etc.

    I'm sure they would be very happy if 10% of their users bought their Beats headphones as well.

    1. DougS Silver badge

      178 million est. for 2014

      So 10% of them would be almost 18 million. Of course, there are many more iPhone owners - around a half billion, so that would be 50 million. Or 140 million if 28% buy.

      This is all pointless until Apple releases it. Most of the people who say they're going to buy it will still evaluate the decision once it is released. The people who say they might will wait until they see one a friend has, see what kind of stuff it can do, etc. and have to be won over before they'll buy.

      If you asked people on January 1, 2007 whether they're interested in owning a smartphone, a small minority would have said yes. Since iPhone and Android made owning a smartphone a lot more useful than existing crap from that time like Windows Mobile, old school Blackberry and Nokia's weird N devices, a lot of people would have changed their mind to make smartphone ownership the norm in developed countries and on its way in the RoW.

  3. MrNed
    Coat

    It's all bollox anyway

    With a cost reportedly ranging from $350 to $5,000 the Apple wristslab would not need to sell in droves in order to make a nice return for Tim Cook & Co.

    What's with the price...? At $350 you've got something that looks little better than the plastic monstrosities people used to wear in the 80s (and has little extra to offer in functionality). And up to 5 grand? Surely the sort of chump willing to part with that much money for a sodding wristwatch will want to stick with the ostentatious and (supposedly) glamorous offerings from the likes of Rolex - you know, something that holds value and will last a long time. The battery in an Apple Watch will be dead within a couple of years - then what do you do with your 5 grand stupido-watcth? Wear it as a cheap-looking bangle? Worthless.

    I also doubt this will create the stated "nice return" for Apple - they've had this chocolate teapot in development for yearsandyearsandyears. They must have poured several billion into it. If the analysts are right and it sells to 10% of fanbois (personally I think that's unlikely, especially at these prices) then they'll be lucky if they break even on the development costs.

    And then, it was only the other day I was reading in these hallowed pages that Google's "explorers" are ditching Glass as a viable app platform. OK - glasses are different to a watch, but IMO it all points to the same thing: there's little interest in these wares, and nobody sees the point. Plus, why would you bother paying all of that money just to be snooped on more comprehensively?

    In fact all of this "smart" tech is soooo yesterday: I'm utterly bored with smartphones - having owned both iPhones and 'droids I can safely say both are rubbish. And I'm struggling to see the worth of tablets (I own both iPad and Nexus-7) beyond reading El Reg on the bog - my laptop's just as good for doing this, and it keeps my knees warm at the same time (plus, when not at toilet, I can use it to do proper work or play proper games). Oh, and they seem to release a new sodding OS every couple of weeks, leaving you with a choice between being unable to install new apps, or crippling your device with a new "improved" (I.E. more resource-hungry) OS.

    My next phone will be dumb, and when the batteries die in these tablets they'll go to landfill and not be replaced. Meh.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: It's all bollox anyway

      Bah-humbug.

      Little extra in functionality - really - no further comment needed.

      Up to 5 grand - that's like saying Ford make the GT40 so I would not buy a Focus as Ford make expensive cars and anyone who can afford a GT40 is clearly £$%£$@£$ (well Clarkson has / had one) ;)

      Break even - if they sell to just 10% of the new iPhone buyers that is probably at least 10m+ units per year at an average cost of say $400 is $4 billion in revenue per year. Of that even after R&D (much of whose costs can be shared with other products) they will probably clear 30%+ so that's perhaps adding 1.2 billions a year in profits and critically further building out / locking in the ecosystem.

      As for usage - it clearly depends what you use it for and they all have their pros and cons - personally I use a iPhone, iPad and Macbook - I can make calls on my Macbook but the iPhone is better, I can read eBooks on the iPhone but the iPad is better and I can type long documents on the iPad but the Macbook is better.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: It's all bollox anyway

      You are probably bored of smart-stuff until it's gone. My wife moaned about something (minot) not working on her phone so I suggested perhaps she would want to go back to a Nokia candy bar but she countered with perhaps I would like to live elsewhere than her and the kids. Touché.

      1. Dexter

        Re: It's all bollox anyway

        I ditched my smartphone and went back to a Nokia candy bar after I realised I never used the phone for anything except calls and the occasional text. The Nokia is 1/3 the size and weight, and the battery lasts a week.

        When you consider what high end watches cost from the like of Omega and Rolex, the Apple watch doesn't look so bad.

  4. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Aren't the AppleLites teats sore yet? (South Park)

    '10 percent of iPhone owners were classified as "very likely" to buy the new iThing'

    It seems that Apple is using the same formula as the 'Freemium' games industry.

    I only hope that they stop before buying, because if you buy an Apple watch you are in fact making a pact with the Canadian Devil!.....and he don't mess aboot.

  5. Tom 7 Silver badge

    Might just put a strap on my phone

    it fits rather nicely on my wrist...

  6. sawatts
    Paris Hilton

    Motion Sensor

    A watch should be quite good at detecting hand movement.

    Now if only we could think of an App that would make use of that...

  7. xyz

    There is something soooo...

    ...dancing dad about having tech on your wrist. Think back to how "cool" it was to have a mobile or keys danging from your belt (yeah, I know, the other sysAdmins loved it). All it says is "please believe me that I'm important."

    The bottom line with anything wearable is "you ain't gonna pull if you look like a fool" and a glow in the dark wrist is the height of twonkism. The only cool dude with wearable tech was the alien in Predator and look how pissed off he was at not getting laid.

  8. Charles Manning

    If Apple sold blood

    they'd line up for transfusions.

    There are at many fanbois out there that will buy anything new from Apple, no matter on how stupid it looks or how well it functions.

    More than 10%? Perhaps.

  9. Rog in NZ

    Fanboi mentality - nailed, years ago, by the Onion (as always) ...

    http://www.theonion.com/video/apple-introduces-revolutionary-new-laptop-with-no,14299/

    "I'll buy almost anything if it's shiny and it's made by Apple"

    </satire> (if you hadn't guessed)

  10. Stretch

    They must not have asked actual fanbois, as we all know you are simple NOT ALLOWED to not buy the newest product from Crapple regardless of what you already own, how old it is, whether you use it, etc.

  11. Gis Bun

    I know 3 fanbois. Not one is buying this.

    Only 11% of teens [presumably with an iPhone already] intend on buying a watch - this is probably Apple's biggest purchasing group.

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