People are keeping them for three years?
So in other words, nearly everyone has still got the first tablet they bought and haven't yet replaced it?
Certainly fits with nearly everyone I know.
The mist has cleared in Gartner’s crystal ball and the resident mystics have deduced that the tab revolution is coming to an end: some 83 million fewer fondleslabs are to be flogged worldwide this year than previously forecast. Shipments of slablets into retailers and tech disties will still grow 10.6 per cent this year to 229 …
"They are still trying to figure out what they are good for.
Nope - I, and the family, luv 'em.
That's an Asus Transformer (about 4 years old), HP Touchpad (androided) 3 years old, Nexus 7 2 years old. All running perfectly. Why would i even think about replacing until one borks?
Oh and i forgot a year old iPad Air given by my partner's employer that has never been out of the box. That will replace any of the others that do die.
If it is three years now, next year it may be nearer four.
On the assumption that you have a tablet that can do iPlayer et al and the almost current vesion of it's OS
you will need to replace it when..
1) The number of recharge cycles leaves the battery life at less than an hour.
2) The USB port wears and goes slack so no charging at all
3) The OS gets at least two versions beyond what's on your Tab.
4) The screen is no longer touch
5) The Dog uses it as a replacement chewy toy..
6) The Child uses it as a replacement hammer toy..
7) You loose it
8) The draw of the new shiny shiny Tab and the sale value of your current Tab on Ebay almost cross
In other words I reckon that it doesn't take a genius to work out that the replacement cycle is about three years, with a small percentage for distressed purchase replacements.
Gartner can I have a job please..
My original iPad 1 is already three iOS versions behind, but it stills plays videos and I can read books on it fine. Safari crashes more and more, as web pages are not tested against such "old" browser, but for most casual browsing works fine.
Battery is starting to degrade, to the point of having to charge daily instead of every other day. Net result is, if I ever want a new tablet it will be for... reading books, play videos and casual browsing, and I don't see any specific advantage in getting a new device when the old is still working almost fine. Other than the browser being more capable and less crash prone.
well that's a surprise, also I'd be shocked if a lot of folk that rushed out and picked up a tablet over the last few years realised it had absolutely no use.
Back to the old "why would you upgrade your kindle when they work for years" tablets will have a better turnover then e-readers but even then the "it still plays video and I can browse the internet just about."
1. [verb] To be paid to produce vague reports that serve only for brief news items and are then discarded; never to be examined in retrospect to avoid embarrassment at the inaccuracies in predictions.
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Note to tech companies: Make your stuff crappier to begin with then we will have a reason to upgrade more often. My 2.5 year old tablet (not saying what it is lest each side of the divide should take offense) still works absolutely fine and does everything what I want it to.
BTW I was being sarcastic about the crappier thing. The trick is to make your new stuff compellingly better.
I was looking at project with about 500 tablets that would be a great opportunity for a manufacturer to showcase their wares. It didn't matter whether it was Apple, Samsung, HTC, Microsoft etc none of them seemed interested in anything other than referring me to a reseller none of whom could get extra discount out of the manufacturer and so the prices were only a few dollars off the price you could buy them for in a high street store.
If the manufacturers aren't that interested in shifting them even with a pretty strong marketing opportunity then I'm not surprise they aren't selling.
I sort of agree with you, except that in the new world of Millions of shipped items, an order for 500 would probably be seen as chicken feed. If you had said 50,000 it might have woken them up. But that is only as many as Tesco shipped HUDL last year, and that is seen as a niche.
500 is nothing at all, so of course the manufacturers don't care. These are mass-market products, the resellers buy that many in a week if not less.
You'd need to be asking for closer to 10,000 to get them interested.
The only way they notice small numbers like 500 is if you're a high-profile event like the Olympics or perhaps Commonwealth Games, where they can justify it as a direct marketing expense.
Also, the Android and Windows tablets have pretty tight margins, so discounts are very hard to get generally. (Apple have better margins but also have less reason to give a toss about such small numbers of devices.)
I didn't say 500 would change their life but they would've been used by up to 1/3 million people a year which you would expect to have some residual benefit.
As the defacto tablet for many is the iPad it could allow their device to be seen and used by many people who could have their purchase influenced by them.
Maybe I'm just too used to other markets where penetration in a competitive market is seen as somewhat valuable even just for brand awareness. In some cases they were asking for more than the retail price for a single unit, I guess due to the risk of having to ship a quantity of units and risking multiple returns.
"Maybe I'm just too used to other markets where penetration in a competitive market is seen as somewhat valuable even just for brand awareness. In some cases they were asking for more than the retail price for a single unit, I guess due to the risk of having to ship a quantity of units and risking multiple returns"
You're referring to the laptop/desktop market perhaps? Yes, in those markets you mention a bulk order of 500 devices and they turn they heads and start listening to you. But only because they are willing to give a -small as possible- discount with the expectation of (a) repeat orders and/or (b) cross-selling additional products or services associated with the machines.
(a) is common to all kind of products products and very useful for them to manage left over inventory of kit that becomes obsolete, yet is still purchased as "standard" by organizations
But the situation with (b) is quite different between a tablet and a laptop/desktop machine. There's almost no "value added" product or services they can sell with the tablet: no field repair service, no "pre-imaging" service, no customization service... there's much less commercial opportunity for resellers.
My last tablet lasted just under 3 years before it got too slow and bulky, so well done Gartner for guessing that 3 years is about right.
Apologies to the tablet makers, sorry but my shiny new Samsung 8" tablet is going to have to last me at least 3 years as my Missus will not be best pleased if I ask for another £250 toy I only use for watching Family Guy on the tube in the morning. I sold her on the idea I would be using it to read tech manuals and watching tech seminar vids to increase my worth at work!
"but you can't do any real work on them."
Oh dear - not that old objection. Yes you can.
Just in case you think I'm guessing my wife got a contract to write her second book from a publisher and fulfilled that contract on an iPad. If that's not creative "real" work then I don't know what is.
Yes - video editing is probably best left to beefier devices, but most "real" work can be handled by a tablet. You may want to consider the opportunities presented by bluetooth.
I think that I, like many others who actually do work with their computers had a hard time finding a use for tablets and their invariably locked down, invariably limited software; but I do have one (ok, a couple) that I have learned to make use of. For reading - books - pdf manuals - maps - or just because for that simple reason that it's easier to roll it onto the floor without breaking at 3am after watching some sort of video (nevermind what kind) than a laptop is.
For these, simple reasons - they've already made the ideal device, being basically a screen in some package that will only get out of date because of not being new in 'style', or - as became fashionable - because they glued in the battery. While early gen/particularly cheap tablets are low enough resolution to be noteworthy as a point to upgrade, I certainly don't need a 4k screen on one, and I'm certainly not about to buy a bigger one.
So - what am I going to upgrade? I can only think connectivity (just tether to your phone) or miracast (if it ever worked). Ubuntu's idea of a converged OS/device docking was the only one that might require a powerful device (and yeah; that's still not here); everyone else just wants to sell you a tablet, phone /and/ other device then parasitise your data through their (not calling it cloud) online services.
A better forecast would be when can we have a tablet with the LCARS user interface. At least that came with clearly identifiable, activable UI elements that were large enough to deliberately press.
Two of my three Samsung devices have lasted less than two years: one Galaxy Note tablet started rebooting itself sporadically three months after purchase, and one Galaxy SIII mini started to do the same just short of two years after purchase. Their repair service is worthless as it is enough for them to be able to boot at least once to declare that they are fine and return them back.
So yes, Samsung cycle in my case is less than three years, but it is the last time I purchase anything from that brand, now it is Sony and LG now for me... hoping that these last at least three years.
If there's growth of 10%, how is it a "tastrophe" of any sort? It is only bad for the idiot who projected it to rise 30% or whatever his previous figure was, and had to cut it back by 83 million.
I predict 12 tablets will ship in 2015, and one billion Windows PCs. Look for my revised predictions based on three quarters of actual data one year from today, and for the Register article that will trumpet "incredible surge in 2015 tablet sales" and "Windows PC sales experience unprecedented crash in 2015"
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