back to article iPhone 5 poised to trounce Android, devastate BlackBerry?

A new report on smartphone buying plans provides excellent news for Apple, so-so news for Android-handset manufacturers, and downright lousy news for RIM. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster's annual smartphone purchasing survey – which was conducted by querying 400 people in Minnesota, New York, and California, and in China …

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  1. Steve Davies 3 Silver badge
    Alien

    If this is bad news for RIM then what about MicroNokia?

    I fully expect that there will be much gnashing of teeth and even throwing of chairs in Redmond when they read this.

    Then there will be some really nasty phone calls to Gartner who's recent survey predicted that Windows Phone would rule the world in no time flat.

    1. Muckminded

      Re: If this is bad news for RIM then what about MicroNokia?

      Microsoft will subsidise and paint happy rainbows on the losses until they get 15% penetration, then claim victory. Oh, hey Bing, what up?

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: If this is bad news for RIM then what about MicroNokia?

        They can try but it's expensive spending almost $500 in marketing to sell every Nokia top-end phone.

    2. Mark .

      Re: If this is bad news for RIM then what about MicroNokia?

      Someone had better also make those phone calls to the entirety of the media who claimed that Apple would rule the world in no time flat. I'm still waiting. Hell, wake me up when Iphone finally overtakes the now-deprecated Symbian in installed userbase.

      (Really though - the fact that this ignores the number two phone maker - second to Samsung, not Apple - just makes this "survey" even more dubious. I suspect it's yet another case of "let's publicise the one stat that makes Apple look best".)

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Ah Grasshopper

      Ah Grasshopper, there are many certainties in life.

      Master I do not understand?

      Grasshopper, these certainties are,

      We think, we breath and we all die....

      Yes Master.

      But the greatest certainty Grasshopper....

      I'm sorry Master I do not know.

      The greatest certainty Grasshopper, is that Apple will trounce all other with the introduction of the '5'!

  2. David Dawson
    WTF?

    Scale drawings of screens

    .... er .... what?!?

    Here's a rectangle. Here's another rectangle, slightly larger. Which is better...?

    I don't get that question at all....

    1. Tom 35 Silver badge

      Re: Scale drawings of screens

      all repondents preferred the smaller display.

      or

      all repondents thought the Razr was ugly.

      You have to create images of the same phone with different size screens if you want to know what screen size they like.

    2. James Micallef Silver badge

      Re: Scale drawings of screens

      Preferences of scale drawings of DIFFERENT phones can be related to the design as much as to the size, this question is of limited use. Having said that, I've tried the Samsung G S3 and HTY One X, 4.7-4.8" screens and they're really a handful, not to mention that they won't fit comfortably into quite a few pockets. 3.5" is perfect for for girl-sized hands and is pretty OK for most people.

      It also depends on App usage. If I'm mostly using the thing as a phone, if I'm going to be streaming video or a picture slideshow to the nearest TV instead of using the native screen, 3.5" is perfectly adequate. If I'm watching videos or playing games directly on the screen a 4.7" screen will work better

      Personally I think 4.0-4.3" is right for me (light internet / mail use + some apps), if I want to watch movies or play games on the go I'll get myself a tablet. Of course everyone is going to have their own preference on form factor, it has nothing to do with a survey on phone OS

      1. Mark .

        Re: Scale drawings of screens

        Ah, your one anecdotal opinion trumps tens of millions of people buying 4.5"+ Android phones - more than anything from Apple - and the market research that Samsung would surely have done. Personally I have no trouble with my Galaxy Nexus, and the S3 looks fine too (a larger LCD, but the phone itself is barely any bigger).

        Not that this is an argument against Android, since there are smaller Android phones too, including in the 4-4.3" range.

        "if I want to watch movies or play games on the go I'll get myself a tablet."

        I have a tablet. It's my 4.6" Galaxy Nexus, that's also my phone.

        And if all you want is a phone to use as a phone, then pick up a dirt cheap low end Android or S40 device, or even a really cheap dumb phone. Why pay for the most expensive phone on the market, just for a tiny 3.5" screen that you are only using as a phone.

        1. chr0m4t1c

          @Mark

          >tens of millions of people buying 4.5"+ Android phones

          Source? I know Android phones are outselling iPhones, but then that's what you would expect to happen in normal market conditions, there simply aren't enough options in the Apple range to cover all the bases.

          What I want to know is where the evidence is that so many people are buying 4.5"+ screen phones, last I read something like 30 million had shipped, but as we all know "shipped" is quite different from "sold". And that's still only about 10% of the 300 million smartphones sold in the first quarter of 2012.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: @Mark

            Yes, we know... Nobody buys Android phones. Large chains and telecoms just order millions of them to store in their warehouses, because that's the kind of business sense that made them large chains and telecoms in the first place.

        2. James Micallef Silver badge
          Facepalm

          Re: Scale drawings of screens

          "your one anecdotal opinion trumps tens of millions of people " wtf??

          I don't know where you got 'trumps' from, I nowhere said that my opinion is better than anyone else's. I clearly state that my opinion is my opinion and everyone is entitled to their own. You seem to have taken my comment as somehow being pro-apple, when it was nothing of the sort, in fact I also clearly specify that I'm commenting on form factor, not OS

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Scale drawings of screens

      The issue is not everyone wants BIG phone.

  3. JDB
    Stop

    small sample

    I live on the border of Minnesota and that's a very heavily skewed iPhone state. I'm guessing California is, too (just a guess). That and the EXTREMELY small sample size make these number very suspect to me. I have no doubt the iPhone 5 will sell really well - I just wouldn't base any actual number expectations on a survey like that.

    1. Tom 35 Silver badge

      Re: small sample

      Who paid for the survey?

      How did they select the people. People in a high end shopping mall, with an apple store? It's easy to warp the results if you know what you (or your customer) wants.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Stop

        Re: small sample

        Who did you think paid for the survey?

        You can also bet they were asked to survey very close to an Apple store to get the required outcome...

        It's unfortunate there are still too many idiots in the world this believe these sorts of surveys. They are NEVER impartial and ALWAYS have a hidden agenda.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: small sample

      And China and Korea could be skewed because its owning an iPhone is probably seen as a status symbol... if you live in the UK and they give you a choice of a "home" manufactured car (Honda, Toyota) or something seen as having status (Ferrari, Porche) then what are you going to say?

    3. Fibbles

      Re: small sample

      I was thinking the same thing JDB. Europe tends to be more skewed towards Android than the iPhone when it comes to smartphone preferences. It's rather telling that this survey avoided the continent completely.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: small sample

        Agree. I bumped into an Italian phone shop dude on a flight once, apparently Android has been king of the hill for some time there.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: small sample

          > Agree. I bumped into an Italian phone shop dude on a flight once, apparently Android has been king of the hill for some time there.

          Unless the hill in question happens to be Etna... then it's Nokia all the way in.

    4. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: small sample

      Exactly.

      I Just did a quick survey amongst 4 people ANDROID IS TROUNCING APPLE! - yes we all own androids and yes, this survey was just as meaningless.

      1. Reading Your E-mail
        FAIL

        Re: small sample

        "400 people in Minnesota, New York, and California, and in China and Korea"

        80 people per area?!?!? That must have taken 5 researchers a little over a lunch hour to do, wonder where the very briefly set up camp?

        Not to mention peepz are supposedly ready to hand over cash for an iPride 5 without even having seen any kind of spec? Wow "owned" is the only word that comes to mind

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: small sample

        I just performed my own small 4 people office survey.

        Over the past 6 months it's gone from 1 Android, 2 Blackberry and a Nokia to 3 Android and 1 Blackberry

        We're still working on the Blackberry user who is always obstreperous... He'll probably buy an iphone just to be awkward... Although he did do that once before... and sent it back in under a week!

    5. Mr Cheddarfingers

      Re: small sample

      Have a look at the first statistic list "What is your current phone?", it says 52% iPhone.

      Seeing as the iPhone only holds around 20% marketshare, it's obvious that they went for a set of customers that were heavily biased towards the iPhone from this question alone. This, coupled with the small sample size suggests the survey is meaningless.

      If it was a genuinely balanced survey you could guarantee that within a small range of discrepency that very first number would be representative of the iPhone's marketshare, as it's inflated by over 200% of the real figure, then you can't surmise anything of statistical value from this survey.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: small sample

        That 20% claim you make is 'worldwide' - if you asked people in any major US city the percentage is likely to be much higher than the world-average.

        1. Mark .

          Re: small sample

          Yes that's exactly the point he was making - the survey was biased and not reflective of worldwide share, whether geographically, or otherwise.

          And if you're trying to say this at least means that Iphone 5 will do well in the US - well, 52% is still too high, as Android leads in the US alone.

    6. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: small sample

      400 is not an especially small sample size - of course a larger one is better (as in more accurate) but quite often surveys are still accurate to a few percent either way with even smaller samples.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: small sample

        >400 is not an especially small sample size

        Yes it is. It's laughable.

        If you were sampling in one shopping centre on a weekday lunchtime, it'd be adequate. These people were sampling 'worldwide'.

        Apple^H^H^H^H^HWhoever paid for this survey should ask for their money back.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          @ Field Marshal blah blah

          When are people going to realise that whatever technique they are using that produces ^H^H does NOT render as strikethrough in the el Reg forums?

          1. Field Marshal Von Krakenfart
            Headmaster

            Re: @ Field Marshal blah blah

            Welllll.... when I want to put ^H on the screen I usually type <shift-6><shift-h>

            Also, its a backspace, not strikethrough.

            ^H is also used humorously for epanorthosis by boring old farts^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H computer literates, denoting the deletion of a pretended blunder you brainless twat^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H valued member of the forums.

            1. Anonymous Coward
              Anonymous Coward

              Re: @ Field Marshal blah blah

              Which would be great00000000000000000 f it worked as666666666666666666intended@@@@@@@@@@but actuall&%^%$^%y it only makes you{}{}~~{~r post REALLY HARD TO READ

              1. Field Marshal Von Krakenfart
                Headmaster

                Re: @ Field Marshal blah blah

                No, this is hard to read.....

                لا، هذا من الصعب أن تقرأ الامريكي ديك

          2. Anonymous Coward
            Happy

            Re: @ Field Marshal blah blah

            If you weren't using a Windows Phone, you could have cut and pasted the whole thing!

    7. Mark .

      Re: small sample

      Yes - and just to add to this, the problem isn't so much with sample size, but whether it's random. 400 would be more than enough if it was truly a worldwide random sample, with no bias on those responding. But we know it wasn't - the fact that it was only a handful of cities.

      Consider how Iphone users always say how they've just bought an Iphone, and tell you they've got one every single day. It stands to reason that you're going to get far more people claiming they're next phone will be an Iphone - the majority of people who go on to buy from more popular companies like Samsung and Nokia care less about advertising the fact.

      I also find it funny that this matters anyway - if market share is important to us consumers, then why aren't the media slagging off Apple all these years, for never having been number one, and instead praising the number one platforms Symbian and now Android? No - as always, the media twists things so a statistic is only important if it makes Apple looks best.

  4. Luke Alexander
    FAIL

    Really?

    "No matter which phone they owned – iPhone, Android, or BlackBerry – all repondents preferred the smaller display."

    Except that 69 Android users preferred the bigger screen vs 35 who liked the small one...

  5. Luke Alexander
    Headmaster

    In fact

    I'm liking the line "no matter which phone they owned – iPhone, Android, or BlackBerry – all repondents preferred the smaller display" less every time I read it. Doesn't it imply that 100% of respondents preferred the smaller display, no matter what they owned?

    In fact, I make it 55% of respondents who prefer the smaller screen. Not quite the damning indictment of larger screens.

    1. Dazed and Confused Silver badge

      Re: In fact

      Just come back from South Korea and talking to a number of people there they made an interesting comment about screen size. Samsung launched the wopping big Note to its home market in winter. It promptly sold like hot cakes. But come summer people, especially blokes, are finding its too big to carry around. In winter it goes in a coat pocket. In summer its much too large to go in your trouser pocket. And apparently Korean women think that blokes with a hand bag or pouch to hold their phone don't count as men.

      So when did they do this survey?

      1. Dave Fox
        WTF?

        Re: In fact

        Sorry, but I have a Galaxy Note and have absolutely no problem whatsoever putting in my trouser pockets, and I'm not exactly a giant!

        Who were you talking to, Smurfs? ;)

        1. 404 Silver badge
          Trollface

          THAT'S RACIST!

          Re: Dave Fox: "Who were you talking to, Smurfs? ;)"

          So you saying Koreans are small?

          ;)

        2. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: In fact

          You have flipping big pockets - it's not a phone it's a mini tablet - way too big for most human hands / pockets.

          1. Mark .

            Re: In fact

            "a phone it's a mini tablet"

            That makes no sense. If it's a phone, it's not a tablet by definition. Although reasonably we might refer to phones as being tablets too, that applies to all phones. I'd call 3-4" "mini"; over 5" is getting more towards mid-range.

            (The idea of "tablet" meaning "big" has no basis in historical usage - any handheld device that wasn't a phone is a tablet. It's only Apple who decided to make an absurdly big tablet.)

          2. Refugee from Windows
            Thumb Down

            Re: In fact

            A bit like the "pocket movie camera" featured by Graeme Garden in the Goodies - came with a special pair of trousers.

      2. Mark .

        Re: In fact

        See YouTube videos, it fits in a pocket.

        And so what - if men end up avoiding the Note, then Samsung have the S3 which fits absolutely fine in a pocket, so they're not losing sales. Not to mention that "people who carry handbags with them" is still a fairly big market, you know.

        (Personally I find it mad that people are still so hung up on image that it harms their choice of technology. I suppose we should be glad that mobile phones weren't invented 100 years or more ago, otherwise they'd be categorised into "men's phones" and "women's phones". Imagine going into a phone shop, and having to restrict yourself to one part of the store - "Sorry, we don't have a Galaxy Note in the men's section, you'll have to have this phone instead"...)

  6. john devoy

    i plan to move from iphone to wp8.

    1. Steve Davies 3 Silver badge

      I am sure that Microsoft will reward your decision with 10 free copies of Windows 8.

      Being serious for a moment, the fragmentation of the Android market could work to Apple's benefit. Exactly how many basically identical Android phones does Samsung need to sell at the moment? It really does get confusing when you try to compare them. If the Winphone 8 models are sufficiently different from each other they might carge out a niche in the market. However, I do get the idea that in thei desperation to sell any old bit of tat they can just to survive, Nokia will flood the market with basically identical phones.

      Apple's keep it simple with a minimal choice of models is a definite USP in a very crowded market place.

      1. Fibbles

        I've never really liked this argument about fragmentation. The IBM-esque PC market is extremely fragmented but sales of IBM PC clones far outstrip those of any other PC architecture. Fragmentation is just a consequence of commoditization and commoditization inevitably leads to higher adoption rates. MS Windows is used widely for a lot of reasons (dodgy business practices etc) but it's dominance has been helped rather than hindered by it's ability to run on everything from sub £200 white box PCs to the latest £2000 Alienware gaming rig.

        I suspect Android will experience something similar. Hardware manufacturers will be in a race to the bottom, producing ever cheaper kit which will help Android become ubiquitous. However, because of Android's fragmented nature it will also run on expensive flagship phones, designed to compete with the likes of Apple at the high end of the market.

        1. Richard Plinston Silver badge

          > sales of IBM PC clones far outstrip those of any other PC architecture

          'IBM PC' and clones haven't been sold for decades. IBM PCs had ISA bus connectors, CGI or MDA cards. IBM PS/2s moved to MicroChannel. Since 20 years ago most desktop computers moved to PCI and derivatives.

          Given that the current top 'personal computers' are iPads and Android phones then your claims seem rather strange.

          > it's ability to run on everything from sub £200 white box PCs to the latest £2000 Alienware gaming rig

          Which are basically the same thing, except the cost and speed, and trivial things like component layout.

          In fact Windows is rather limited to what it can run on, it used to include MIPS, Alpha, and some others which have all been abandoned. While CE (and derivatives such as WP7) can run on some other CPUs these are restricted, only about 4 ARM chips out of many. Even Windows RT and WP8 will only cover 3 or 4 different SoCs.

          Android runs on a version of the Linux kernel and the changes have been put into the mainstream. Linux will run on most architectures from embedded up to top SuperComputer.

          1. Fibbles

            Sorry Richard, I think you gotten too caught up on the terminology and missed the content of what I was saying. Replace 'IBM PC' with 'x86/x64 PC' in my original post. Does that make you any happier?

            Since 99.9% of android phones run on ARM and until Win RT is released 99.9% of consumer Windows installations run on x86/x64 the comparison is still valid.

          2. Chris Parsons

            "In fact Windows is rather limited to what it can run on" - not a lot of Intel/Amd stuff around, is there?

            Cars are rather limited in what they can run on...

        2. Paw Bokenfohr

          Fragmentation

          @Fibbles

          I think that the point about fragmentation in the smartphone (Android) area isn't an exact allegory for the "x86/64 / Windows" history. Here's what I think the concerns are about the issues that Android Phone faces compared to iPhone:

          1. Screens sizes / resolutions etc. This isn't the same as the "x86/64" issue with a windowed environment because of course the res of the desktop doesn't matter if you're running something in a window, or even if you consider full screen running applications on the "x86/64" as back then of course we were using CRTs which would all (to an overwhelming degree) be 4:3 and run at 640x480 or 800x600, at 60Hz, and so you could write your full screen app to use one of those common ones. It's not the same on a smart phone, especially with various screen ratios, and LCDs which do have a native resolution to look their best.

          2. Processing power. This is the same as the "x86/64" issue, and of course that was a nightmare at the time - having to check every single piece of software before you invested to make sure that you met every one of its requirements or it'd not install, or crash, or be dog-slow.

          I'm not saying that there aren't reasons the other way, where Android Phone beats iPhone, just that these are the two main reasons that people think of, I think, when they say "fragmentation" of Android in a way that doesn't affect iPhone.

          I'm also not saying that there aren't ways round these, there may be, but I'm not a programmer.

          1. Mark .

            Re: Fragmentation

            I do hope you criticised Iphone 4 for changing the resolution then. And I expect you to be first in line to criticise the Iphone "5" if it's ever released, if it has a different screen size. That's before we mention the many Ipads, all with different resolutions, and a completely different whopping 10" screen size.

            And different Iphones have different CPU speeds, so they already have that so-called "fragmentation" at all.

            "I'm also not saying that there aren't ways round these, there may be, but I'm not a programmer."

            I am a programmer. Different resolutions or screen sizes aren't a problem. It isn't simply a case of "working round them" - rather, it isn't an issue in most cases full stop. You don't design software in "pixels" these days, you just lay out the UI that you want. And in any cases where resolution might be an issue, then you'd have the same problem with the different models of IOS devices too.

            The only platform which doesn't have resolution "fragmentation" is Symbian, which standardised on 640x360 for the last 5 years, and is only used for 3.2"-4" devices, rather than tiny to large like IOS. Funny how I don't hear Apple fans praising Symbian over IOS for this - once again, made up criticisms like "fragmentation" only work if they make Apple look better.

            1. Steve Todd
              Stop

              Programmer you may be, but thats a rather too simplistic view of fragmentation

              Screen resolution is only one component of the whole picture, and probably the easiest to deal with.

              The first problem is in software APIs. If you write your code to make use of the latest APIs then you limit the size of your buying market. With Android 90% of users are on version 2.3 or older, therefore most code will be targeted at that version or older.

              Second hardware capability. An x86 processor, even at the lower end of the range, is much more capable than an ARM CPU. With Android your users can have anything between a single ARM v11 and four Cortex A9's (or even an Intel Atom these days) so you have to pick a minimum hardware performance level. The range of GPUs in use causes a similar problem (especially with older APIs not giving full GPU acceleration).

              Thirdly compatibility testing. Because of the first two points the range of devices you need to verify your software against is much larger. This will take longer and cost more in test devices.

              1. Anonymous Coward
                Anonymous Coward

                Re: Programmer you may be, but thats a rather too simplistic view of fragmentation

                the stats say otherwise:

                http://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html

                less than 25% are on 2.3 or older. The dominant code base is 2.3.3 - 2.3.7 at 64%.

                Furthermore, numerous new features are back ported to older versions via the support libraries.

                1. Steve Todd
                  Stop

                  Re: Programmer you may be, but thats a rather too simplistic view of fragmentation

                  Did I say 2.3.0? The programming world normally assumes that 2.3 refers to 2.3.whatever.

                  From your own numbers 89% of users are on versions less than 3. What version is a developer going to build for?

                  1. Richard Plinston Silver badge

                    Re: Programmer you may be, but thats a rather too simplistic view of fragmentation

                    > versions less than 3.

                    Android 3 was developed specifically for tablets, it was not intended for phones, so no surprises that few phones have that:

                    "Android 3.0 is a new version of the Android platform that is specifically optimized for devices with larger screen sizes, particularly tablets."

                    Android 4.0 has been applied to phones, and more are coming. 4.1 is only just released.

                    But it is of small consequence, most apps still run on 2.x.

    2. SuccessCase

      Hi John

      I'm very interested to know you plan to move from iPhone to Win phone 8. FYI I plan to buy pizza this evening.

    3. Yesnomaybe

      Just for the record...

      ...I am seriously considering moving from Android to Win8 phone next time I buy.

  7. The Envoy
    Thumb Down

    null and void

    I am no expert on statistics but find it impossible to think that you can pick 400 people that statistically represent and correctly reflect the 1 475 000 000 living in the states and countries mentioned.

    And see it quoted in media as some serious investigative this-will-happen-for-sure poll... Amazing!

    1. Vector
      FAIL

      Re: null and void

      I'm not an expert either, but when the sample set has the shares for iPhone and Android flipped almost exactly to IDC and Gartner numbers for current market share (52% iPhone, 26% Android in the survey versus 23% iPhone, ~57% Android in the market numbers), I'd say any findings are suspect.

      1. DougS Silver badge

        @Vector - Re: null and void

        The market share figures you see publicized all the time are for either all of the US or worldwide, and are for CURRENT sales. On average, iPhones probably tend to be used longer than Androids, as the higher resale value of iPhones make people more likely to sell theirs on rather than stick it in a drawer (my previous phones I just stuck in a drawer because I didn't want to toss them in the trash since they contain hazardous materials, my 3GS was still worth $144 last fall so I sold it via Gazelle) So even if Androids outsell iPhones 2:1 today that doesn't mean there are 2x more Androids in use on a daily basis.

        Plus, the people surveyed were in three US states and two countries, and probably were in bigger cities rather than in small towns or farms. People who live in cities tend to make more money, and thus are more likely to buy iPhones (because if you make less, you might consider iPhones too expensive and not consider them)

        As I pointed out to another poster, consider that it is Piper Jaffrey doing this. They aren't in the business of doing scientific surveys, and don't claim this to be one (the media who reports it may imply otherwise, but they get the facts wrong all the time) They just want some information to allow them to get a ballpark estimate for iPhone 5 in an attempt to determine what Apple's stock price will do.

        1. Vector

          Re: @DougS - null and void

          I fail to see how the assertion of higher resale value could lead to a conclusion that iPhones tend to be used longer than Android phones or how that would justify a sample set so heavily skewed against what are, admittedly, current but nonetheless indicative sales figures.

          Piper Jaffray may not be a scientific research company, but they have certainly trumpeted these figures to the press and have reached suspect conclusions in the process for the press to tout to world+dog.

    2. Jonathan White

      Re: null and void

      I'm not an expert on statistics but I do know a bit about it. Under certain circumstances (and with data that falls out in a certain way) it is possible for a sample of 400 people to be mathematically representative of a much larger population. It would be quite unusual though - i.e. the data would have to be very conclusive indeed, almost to the point where statistical analysis is irrelevant. I suspect however that this survey was not that mathematically rigourous and wasn't balanced in any way. It's market research in the very broad sense, not science.

      I woud argue with one number you quoted though - the survey doesn't talk about the populations of those states in total, merely those who are planning to buy and/or already own smartphones. Despite the numbers being bandied about, that's still a very small percentage of the population, nowhere near 100%. So your numbers are also somewhat off.

      (where did the white coat icon go)?

    3. DougS Silver badge

      Re: null and void

      Keep in mind who Piper Jaffrey is. They aren't trying or claiming to have a statistically perfect survey. They just want to get a market pulse to see what sort of estimates they should make for iPhone 5 sales. So they survey New York and California as they're all that matters, and picked Minnesota to represent the flyover country of the other 46 states that don't matter to them. They include China because it's where Apple's biggest recent growth is, and toss in Korea since that's where Apple's biggest competition is based. To the money guys on Wall Street, Europe is the world equivalent of the US flyover country, just a bunch of open space you that adds hours to your flight when you go somewhere that matters, i.e. Asia. :)

      The fact that media quotes it like it's a scientific survey is not evidence of bias for Apple anymore than headlines about finding the "god particle" is evidence of bias for religion, or headlines in 2003 about Saddam trying to obtain yellowcake uranium was evidence of bias for the Bush administration. Very little of the media is knowledgeable in science, or statistics, or capable of independent investigation. They just rewrite stories coming from others and are in too much of a hurry to worry about getting the details right.

      1. Handle This
        Thumb Up

        Re: null and void

        Agree with the thrust of this comment. I think you have to account for the apparent fact that most of the rewriting is from press pieces rather than any attempt at hard or strictly factual news to begin with. The failure to add any value through follow-up or independent critical thinking is really just frosting on the cake.

  8. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    the only two conclussion that you can draw from this survey is

    1) the people doing the survey have no clue on how to do an accurate survey.

    2) Microsoft did not pay for it (isn't this the year WP has 99% of all Smartphone purchases ?)

  9. andreas koch
    Coat

    Well, seems reasonable.

    You own an iPhone, you will stick with it; of course. If you should change to something non-Apple, all your data (music, video, games, apps*) is history. And the peer pressure gets new first timers into this voluntary prison (or walled garden, if you prefer...).

    Pity.

    *Who the duck coined this abysmal abbreviation? Could we please hang this person by the whatevers to rot? It's bleeping programs. I've heard some Joe Public actually saying that he doesn't like Android phones because 'They have no apps, just programs and such'.

    1. Dazed and Confused Silver badge

      Re: Well, seems reasonable.

      > You own an iPhone, you will stick with it

      I know quite a number of people who've upgraded from iPhone4s to SIIs.

      It ain't a one way street.

      1. fishman

        Re: Well, seems reasonable.

        My son upgraded from an iPhone to a Galaxy S2. He had quite a bit of itunes stuff, going back 5-6 years. He likes his S2 far better than his past iPhone and any current iPhone. And he isn't impressed by the rumors for the iPhone 5.

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Well, seems reasonable.

        I would not call an iPhone to SII and upgrade - more like having a Rolex and then buying a fake Rolex.

    2. Bill B

      Re: Well, seems reasonable.

      Sigh.

      Music from iTunes has been DRM free since 2009. In music terms, there is no lock in, no walled garden.

      Please keep up.

  10. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    iPhone owners all say the same thing. It's easy to use.

    Seem a bit stupid to me. What, can you not operate any other type of handset?

    Sad, oh so sad!

    1. Jonathan White
      FAIL

      'iPhone owners all say the same thing. It's easy to use.

      Seem a bit stupid to me. What, can you not operate any other type of handset?

      Sad, oh so sad!'

      Yes, see those fools not making things more difficult for themselves! How foolish are they! They could be spending more effort doing the same thing! Now excuse me while I use my device that's slightly less easy to use than theirs, which thereby proved my intellectual superiority!

      Good grief.

      1. daiakuma

        Trouble is, iPhones aren't particularly easy to use. They might be, compared to a typical Windows Mobile or Symbian device of yore, but not compared to current Android or Windows Phone 7 phones.

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        "Yes, see those fools not making things more difficult for themselves! How foolish are they! They could be spending more effort doing the same thing! Now excuse me while I use my device that's slightly less easy to use than theirs, which thereby proved my intellectual superiority!"

        Sir, your reply, is a feeble attempt to denigrate the ease of use of other OS's in comparison to iOS. Your argument is flawed. Using other OS's is just as simple and easy to use.

        However iOS users prefer to believe the choice is superior. Cleary this is not the case as demonstrated by your clear lack of understanding.

        iOS owners, good grief!

        1. Toothpick
          Facepalm

          Using other OS's is just as simple and easy to use.

          You're making it sound that the above is a fact. It isn't. It is your opinion and one I happen agree with. However lots of punters will not (my Mrs being one of them). One punters Android is another's iOS and vice versa.

          As Dirty Harry said "Opinions are like ass holes. Everybody has one"

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      "iPhone owners all say the same thing. It's easy to use.

      Seem a bit stupid to me. What, can you not operate any other type of handset?

      Sad, oh so sad!"

      FFS, the sooner you geeks/nerds/whatever understand that EASY TO USE is what the normal f****ing world wants the sooner you may actually produce something the normal world actually wants!!!!

      The geek (sic) did not, and will not inherit the earth

      1. Robert Forsyth

        Like easy to use video games, where is the sense of achievement?

      2. DaeDaLuS_015
        Mushroom

        Ahem

        If you can't understand it, don't use it. If your not willing to learn how to use something powerful then stay the hell away from it.

        Technology should not be made for idiots.

        Let the downvoting begin, i care not.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Ahem

          As you wish, but I'm not downvoting you for the point you were trying to make.

    3. Ian Johnston Silver badge
      Thumb Up

      Many years ago a colleague was singing the praises of his then-new Mac Classic to me. It could do all sorts of things, he said, that no other computer could so. For example, you could "select" a piece of text while editing a document, "cut" it and "paste" it elsewhere. Wasn't that amazing?

      He wasn't stupid - just ignorant. He'd never used any other sort of computer and believed every word the Apple fanbois told him about their superiority. In these days, of course, it was Douglas Adams and now it's Stephen Fry, but the principle stays the same.

      I use an Androd phone - an original Galaxy S. I find it very easy to use. I have only played briefly with an iPhone, but as far as I could see, it's just as easy.

  11. Jonathan White

    'You own an iPhone, you will stick with it; of course. If you should change to something non-Apple, all your data (music, video, games, apps*) is history. And the peer pressure gets new first timers into this voluntary prison (or walled garden, if you prefer...).'

    er... this applies to the big three (well, big two and the one coughing his last in the corner) smartphone platforms doesn't it? if you have an android phone and you move to iPhone or BB, you equally lose all your apps and related data don't you? And just by the by, why would you necessarily lose your music and video? All my music is MP3 and my video is MP4 - it'll play on both pretty much equally...

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      You are in the minority. Most of the iPhone users I know have DRM protected iTunes music on their handsets, DRM protected eBooks, etc, etc, etc. The 'walled garden' is a well documented Apple business strategy.

      On the subject of apps. I owned a Google Nexus One, now an S3 (and a couple of tablets) - all my apps transferred across nicely.

      Android is all about choice. Want a big screen - get that handset, want a Sony handset - do that, want a physical keyboard - that's your choice, rugged waterproof a priority - sorted! Same applies to the system components - launchers, keyboards, etc, etc, etc.Choice, Choice, Choice.

      1. Jonathan White

        'On the subject of apps. I owned a Google Nexus One, now an S3 (and a couple of tablets) - all my apps transferred across nicely.'

        Which is fine, but patently not what we're talking about. We're talking about transfers between platforms, not transfers between devices on the same platform. The latter is trivial in all cases, even the iPhone. iTunes music's DRM has a somewhat complex history but in the main, I'd say it's slightly more likely any given piece of music will in fact be DRM free than not. eBooks I'll give you, but I'm not convinced they're a huge factor in the general population and the other major players are equally as bad e.g. Kindle - which is a much bigger eBooks platform than iBooks is, has an equally consumer-unfrieldy DRM scheme. Video bought from the iTunes store is definitely DRMed. But then so is any video bought from Google Play. The walled garden definitely exists, but it's not impermeable and they're not the only ones doing it.

        If you talk about apps, then Android is demonstrably more free than iOS, although it only offers more choice in certain fields (more keyboards and launcher apps yes, more games no). I wouldn't quibble with that notion in general.

        Overall, the 'Android is free, iPhone isn't' rallying call is a massive over-simplification. It's a piece of dogmatism, IMO. Both platforms can be free if you're careful, and both attempt to lock you in if you aren't.

        I have both (I have an iPad and an Android phone) and, largely, my 'entertainment content' moves between them without an immense amount of pain. But then I accept I'm more techy than the average and I paid enough attention early on not to get trapped by any one provider.

        1. David Ward 1

          "We're talking about transfers between platforms, not transfers between devices on the same platform. The latter is trivial in all cases, even the iPhone" you might be making that point but we are not! We are talking about transferring your content between the device you have now and the device you might need in the future, if you put your eggs in apple's basket you are fixed to their (limited) vision of your future, which maximizes their profit margins, however if you put them in the android basket there is a better chance that a provider will produce something that fits into your future and in that case you can transfer your things with no penalties.

          your point about kindle would be ok if kindle didn't provide an app for all of the major platforms or apple provided an ebook app to enable you to read your books on other platforms.

          and of course the last defence of the cult "they're not the only ones doing it" i.e. its ok that we behave badly because everyone else does too.. I disappear!

          Ultimately if you join a cult you have to be prepared to pay the exit fee.

      2. E Haines

        "Most of the iPhone users I know have DRM protected iTunes music on their handsets"

        No they don't. iTunes music isn't DRM-protected, hasn't been for years, and even if they had bought it back when it was, it's somewhat likely they would have swapped it for the non-DRM (256K) versions by now.

        1. Peter 48
          Stop

          Not quite

          not necessarily. I am still lumbered with several DRM'ed albums from those foolish days of owning an iPod Touch and being stupid enough to buy something from itunes. Plus there are the various videos that I purchased, all of which can only be played on iTunes or apple hardware. DRM is still a major issue for all other forms of media.

      3. Dana W
        FAIL

        No drm

        Itunes music has not had DRM in YEARS. This old FUD needs to lie down and die once and for all

      4. Bill B

        @AC 21:19

        " Most of the iPhone users I know have DRM protected iTunes music"

        Really? Why? iTunes music has been DRM free since 2009. Or is it because you really don't know that many iPhone users?

        1. Ian Johnston Silver badge
          Thumb Down

          Re: @AC 21:19

          I've got some music I bought before 2009. Maybe other people have too?

          1. Darryl

            Re: @AC 21:19

            Thank you, Ian

    2. andreas koch

      @ Jonathan White

      You are right. But a lot of people using iPhones have never done anything else than purchase on iTunes and will use Apple's 'cloud' storage to go from one phone to the other - - - iPhone.

      As I keep saying: Apple's customer experience is not merited by the technology, it's the ' don't think* about it, we'll do it for you in the right way' service. And that says: Buy another iPhone (and Apple TV, and iPad and iToaster and iFridge).

      I don't personally like it too much that someone 'knows' what i should want; I like to have it my way. I even dislike the way that media players impose a specific file structure to my music collection that may or may not tally with my preferences.

      I like tinkering and choice; most people don't: they buy Apple (and besides, it's fashionable!).

      This is, of course, not gospel; just my personal opinion. You are very welcome to disagree. ;-)

      *Think different, hah, my foot.

  12. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    My own survey

    I did a survey today. 17 people in my office. 3 own iPhones, The rest own Android phones. The iPhone owners are getting wood about the 5 but are probably locked in until v6, the Android ones about Jelly Bean. 3 of the Android owners owned an iPhone 12 months ago.

    If 400 people is a 'sample group', my 17 HAS to be almost as valid :-)

  13. Ken 2

    The sample is really weird: 52% of respondents are iPhone subs and only 26% Android customers - that's way skewed from the general population.

    And Minnesota? That hotbed of mobile fondlers?

    1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

      Location

      They don't actually mean Minnesota, just Minneapolis-St Paul. Or do you see these analysts actually driving out to Uncle Jurgen's farm to ask him? Likewise California will be the Valley or southern California, not Concord, and New York will be the city and not upstate, China will be Shanghai and Korea, Seoul.

      There is now not an inconsiderable investment by pundits in the IOS eco-system. Android is far too anarchic for them to make easy sense (socio-economic) of. Plus, they don't tend to own one even though world+dog is busy putting one in their pocket or handbag.

      @ El Reg size does matter but "form follows function". If people want to watch films and look at photos on their phone then they will want the biggest and best display that they can hold comfortably in one hand.

  14. tom dial Silver badge
    Stop

    I believe I remember seeing, quite recently, that the smart phone population is about 2/3 Android, 1/4 Apple, and the rest all the others. Or maybe that was current sales, to which the installed base should be asymptotic. The survey sample (considering only smart phone users) had about 3/5 Apple, 1/3 Android, close to the reverse.

    The sample is badly skewed and the results are therefore, shall we say, suspect of being seriously off, and any conclusions drawn from them not worth much attention. There are other good reasons for thinking there is trouble ahead for Blackberry and other current and prospective smart phone vendors.

  15. Lunatik
    FAIL

    Weird, weird numbers and methodology...

    That split of currently owned phones?

    "What screen size do you prefer?" - eh?

    Average of $150-odd for a feature phone?

    I'm calling bullshit on the whole damn thing.

  16. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    This makes perfect sense to me. I'm going to buy my first iPhone when the iPhone 5 launches.

    It's out of beta now, right?

  17. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Switching doesn't necessarily mean loss

    I plan on (finally) being able to ditch my iPhone habit thanks to Amazon. Their CloudDrive service and CloudPlayer App (Program!) means I can upload all of my music to S3, then stream it back to myself wherever I might be (as long as I have unlimited Data and or / WiFi access.

    iTunes was the only reason I had not ditched my Jesus-phone sooner.

    When Amazon released CloudDrive, I praised Jebus and started looking for an Android alternative.

    (Of course, to all of my Countrymen back in Blighty, Amazon haven't given you the keys to the shackles just yet..)

  18. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    don't care, unless the boat sinks

    I am most comfortable with Android. WP is the slickest (but the weakest), iOS is the most popular (but the most restrictive).

    This is my opinion, my choice. Market surveys do not reflect me, it reflects .. i don't know. Trends? Or maybe they want to encourage trends? As I said, I don't know.

    What I do know is, Android is the most flexible, so I prefer it. Unless it gets abandoned wholesale, or somebody gets out a better selling AND more open alternative (after ice age in hell) I'll probably stay here, thank you.

    But I do get the iphone adherents, and WP users. Their reasons are sound too. Only it's that those're their reasons, and not mine.

  19. Long Fei
    WTF?

    Korea

    I find the Korea responses to be particularly suspect. When I went there recently I don't think I saw* an iphone at all, everyone was using Samsungs, which is understandable considering Korea is home territory for them, much like Apple is in the US.

    I've certainly seen a big uptake of Android phones here in China too, whereas last year there seemed to be iphones everywhere.

    *Bearing in mind I wasn't taking a survey, it was just something I noticed.

    1. hodma727

      Re: Korea

      "I've certainly seen a big uptake of Android phones here in China too, whereas last year there seemed to be iphones everywhere."

      I've seen both. On the subways in Beijing it's all sorts of crap - the occasional Blackberry, lots of iPhones, lots of ugly as sin cheap looking Android crap you and I wouldn't want to be seen dead with (imagine, phones that are at least 2cm thick!), and shock horror, lots of dumb phones :-)

      Amongst people that can afford cars it's mostly iPhones and a reasonable percentage with high end korean phones.

      The thing is, most normal people don't care about what the inept socially retards on The Register think. They buy whatever they think is best or whatever their local phone seller convinces them to buy. Which usually means whatever cheap POS they make the most margin on.

      1. daiakuma

        Re: Korea

        The report as given here doesn't include any breakdown of how many people were asked in each location, let alone how each location responded, so maybe they just asked two Chinese people and one Korean. I agree with you that the idea of my Koreans planning to buy iPhones is not credible. Android has > 90% market share in that country.

        1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

          Re: Korea

          My own unrepresentative sample of a typical teen fashion victim today who was desperate for I-Phone a year ago and today plenty happy with her Samsung S3 with which she could show me the midday temperature in southern Italy: 46°C. A scorcher. Mammoth definitely a plus there.

          The analysts can make more money from phones that can be treated as luxury goods than they can from commodity items. The nimbus of the App Store is fading and the Long Tail has been proven to be a false hope. ow that it's. No longer possible to be cool with the same toy that everyone else has, we're moving back to whichever phone case can be easily customised as a differentiator n. Seen a couple of retro C-90 cassette backplates for I-Phones recently. Should be a big chance for Nokia but they seem to have lost the plot in going for hand unfriendly forms.

  20. daiakuma

    Skewed Sample

    The survey is unreliable because it is based on a skewed sample. In the study sample, 52% of respondents have an iPhone, and 26% have an Android phone. In the real world, the figures are the other way around: Android has a 59% share and iPhone has 23% (as of Q1 this year). To expand their share of the market to much higher than its present position, Apple would have to introduce a genuinely cheap iPhone so as to penetrate the low end of the market. They show no signs of any interest in doing such a thing, so they are stuck at 20-something per cent.

    There have been surveys like this before. In 2011 there was one from the same Piper Jaffray, which had similar results (64% of respondents said their next phone would be an iPhone), but Android kept on growing, and Apple stayed flat.

  21. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Fragmentation = Choice

    With Apple:

    One size fits all

    With Android:

    Do you want large screen, medium, or small? Do you want 4 processors, two or one? Super resolution? Small size? Folding thumb keyboard? Fluo pink or green? Water resistance? Replaceable battery? Super low cost?

    Do you want to replace the original touch keyboard with another? Do you want to customize your home screen and add the widgets you want? Do you want to switch to another web browser?

    Etcetera.

    Choice is bad for Apple, who are extremely happy selling just one model of an extremely expensive device to an extremely large population who are extremely happy to be spoon fed with whatever drops off Apple's corporate arse.

    I have had an iPhone 4 for a long time, and it is a nice device, but there is no way around many of its misfeatures, and I am quite tired of the limitations it imposes. For my next phone, I will switch to Android VERY happily if corporate policy allows it.

    1. the-it-slayer
      Meh

      Re: Fragmentation = Choice = Confusion = Complications

      I thought I'd add a couple more parts to the equation. Okay, maybe Android adds unlimited possibilities; but it adds mega complication to the point where support on the OS is almost non-existant unless you're a developer who can get in touch with the senior engineers to actually do something. I'm personally fed up with having to tinker with personal products when that's the thing I do at work 9 to 5 everyday! Simplicity works for me and that's what iPhone does. And there's the support you get outside of the mobile phone shops who aren't always that helpful and normally have to go without a phone for a week to get it fixed.

      "With Android:

      Do you want large screen, medium, or small? Do you want 4 processors, two or one? Super resolution? Small size? Folding thumb keyboard? Fluo pink or green? Water resistance? Replaceable battery? Super low cost?"

      Who should give a crap. It's a phone with bolt-ons. It's not a computer. I never knew there were any limitations for phoning/texting people on the iPhone 4? Hey, I even detested the iPhone 3G/3GS as I personally didn't like the design nor did present any value. Anyway, have fun with the countless malware hitting the Android streets at an increasing rate.

      1. Handle This

        Re: Fragmentation = Choice = Confusion = Complications

        And a telephone book (remember them?) is complicated to certain people. There are limitations to using email on the iPhone, as well as in other well-documented areas (I have the 4), and though it does not make it more complicated, it also does not make anything "easier." As you say, "it's a phone," and I would expect to each his own. I'm not sure why you would "detest" a phone, though I have to add that my mobile phones have all been the result of my own (occasionally misplaced) judgment, rather than rationed out by a generous employer, so I can only confess to my own mistakes. I would anticipate that, since you're wise enough in the world to interact here at El Reg, you are also wise enough to avoid any Android malware by use of common sense. But you're right, that could be too complicated. I will be looking to Android, I believe, in the near future.

      2. Spanners Silver badge
        FAIL

        Re: Fragmentation = Choice = Confusion = Complications

        It's a phone with bolt-ons. It's not a computer.

        They are all computers that happen to be Hold-In-The-Hand sized. Some easier to hold than others.

        According to popular belief, you have more power in a Galaxy SII than in the SaturnV that took Neil Armstrong to the Moon. According to some people who I have less faith in, you have more computing power than NASA had at that time. I don't really know but I once had a real IBM AT - a '286 PC. It did 0.413 MIPS, it had a 20MB hard disk and its memory had been fully extended to 640kilobytes. It was really good.

        Any modern smartphone is more a computer with a phone bolted on.

  22. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    People, it's not a lifestyle... It's an f---ing telephone!

    1. system11
      Thumb Up

      Absolutely, how refreshing to see someone actually say it.

      This is why when I bought a phone yesterday (the first mobile one I've actually bought for myself rather than being given by an employer), I approached it from a very simple angle: which handset has the best battery and build quality? The Razr Maxx clobbered everything in battery life and appears to be stuck together properly, so one is in the post.

    2. andreas koch
      Coffee/keyboard

      @ AC 0542h

      But it is marketed as a lifestyle, and people who can't be bothered to develop their own lifestyle are tremendously grateful to be provided with one that comes bundled with the phone.

      Badum-tish.

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Yes, I thought 'the lifestyle' meant something else entirely.

      People who are into 'the lifestyle' surely wouldn't be too bothered what phone they had, as long as it took decent quality video. And vibrated strongly.

  23. Number6

    Carphones

    The iPhone is the XR3 of the phone industry.

    1. Jean Le PHARMACIEN
      Joke

      Re: Carphones

      What's an XR3??

      Oh wait. yes - seem to vaguely remember now...something fast(ish), flash for wannanbee BMW owners, not many survived into their middle years....made by Fix-Or-Repair-Daily..

  24. This post has been deleted by a moderator

  25. John Burton

    52% own iphones?

    Vs. 26% android?

    Well it's flawed from the start.

    So basically they asked a bunch of people who already own iphones what they are more likely to buy next time.

  26. Ascylto
    Big Brother

    Words... words

    "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."

    Steve Ballmer.

    And he's still in charge of Microsoft.

    Long may he stay!

    1. Darryl

      Re: Words... words

      "We don't think you can make a great tablet with a 7-inch screen. We think it's too small to express the software that people want to put on these things."

      Steve Jobs

      And he's dead

      Not sure what you're trying to accomplish with random quotes

  27. DEAD4EVER
    FAIL

    iphone 5

    well apple can do what they want they can release as many iPhone as possible I ant touching a single one of them fact. there a waste of space old OS locked down OS need I say more cheaply put together antenna issues easy to break overpriced rip-off end of. ill stick with android least they know how to make a phone for all customers weather you can afford the top of the range one or even just a basic one for 100 quid they have you covered.

  28. Jim 59

    Surveys

    Those figures are pretty bald Does El Reg believe that 65% of the population of China and the US are planning to buy an iPhone 5 ?

    These surveys always show Apple thumping Android, but sales figures and real life show it's a pretty even fight, maybe tilting towards Android.

  29. Anonymous Coward
    Mushroom

    WinMo8 for me

    I had pretty much decided that I want to go this way anyway but after seeing the announcement that companies can operate thier own internal app store for thier own apps on Windows Mobile 8 device, where Apple/iTunes will absolutely not allow it. It's an complete no brainer for enterprises to go WinMo8 when its available.

    Goodbye iPhone, you've had a good run but its time to step aside, a new player is coming to town. Android shmandroid - a crashy buggy lump of irrelevance designed for haters!

    (sits back to count the downvotes from the unbelievers)

  30. phlashbios

    Statistics...

    A statistically insignificant sample size, with no indications that they tried to select a proportionally cross representative sample of people.

    I stopped reading after the "400 people were asked...".

    This article isn't newsworthy in any way, shape or form. El Reg should have binned it.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Boffin

      Re: Statistics...

      There's (l)ess n(e)ws(w)orthy art(i)cle(s) than this on El Reg.

  31. David 138
    Thumb Up

    you dont know you want a big screen until you have one :) I used to love my HTC Desire cuz it was small, however i bought a HTC ONE X which is massive but soooooooooooooo much better. People only want a small screen because they havent used a bigger one. Phones are now so much lighter size isnt as much of an issue.

    Also i bet its higher than 51% who will re buy and iphone. Most of their users are morons and would buy any crap Apple produced however useless or unchanged it is.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Pocket sized?

      Bigger screens require bigger pockets though, so they don't suit everyone.

  32. Tony Paulazzo

    Ipad 1 stuck on ios 5.1, Ipad 2 gets ios 6 but no Siri & Ipad 3 gets ios 6 & Siri

    iphone/ipod 1 has iOS 3.1.3, iphone/ipod 2 has iOS 4.2.1, ipod 3 5.1.1 & iphone 3 & 4 gets iOS 6 but only the 4s gets Siri

    Dear sweet God - the fragmentation!

    PS Jelly Bean, aka Android whatever doesn't require internet for their Siri ripoff.

    PPS. I've got a 'the new ipad' 3rd gen ipad and love it, but I have an android phone and plan on staying with that platform.

  33. Unicornpiss Silver badge
    WTF?

    The grass is always greener syndrome

    Having used an Android for the past couple of years, and having to set up Android, iPhone, and Blackberry devices for users at work, I can honestly say that I will never give up my Android phone.

    It seems there's kind of a mystique about Apple devices. They're stylish, well-built, and trendy. This will entice some Android owners to Apple, especially the less tech-savvy and the ones that currently have a crap Android phone. And most current Apple users will probably not try Android because "what could be better than my iPhone?" We won't talk about Blackberry, because people that cling to these apparently need medication.

    I think for the discriminating user though, Apple's limitations start to wear thin. The small screen size, the crap on-screen keyboard. All pervasive and horrid iTunes. No SD card slot. Limited compatibility with various document formats. So-so phone performance. Hardware issues quietly swept under the rug by Apple. And the price. Okay, Siri is kind of cool, but I'd be a lot more impressed if Siri didn't need a server farm in "the cloud" to think for her. That ship has about sailed, I think.

    People talk about Google infiltrating everything in the world and taking over. But Apple has already done that for their users. Who else but Apple users exhibit North Korean-esque blind worship of the next iStuff coming down the pike? I realize times are different, but would members of the original "home brew computer club" accept being told what they can or can't run on their device, and suffer through iTunes to get it? Who in their right mind would suffer the locked-down IO of i-devices? The answer is the same sheeple that are too weary or lazy to think for themselves any more.

  34. Watashi

    Sh*t survey

    Did anyone notice that 52% of respondents were iPhone owners? This against a background population of 23% of smartphone being Apple devices. The sample group is clearly not representative, so this survey is utterly pointless. Perhaps El Reg should close down over July, as there's obviously not enough real news to keep their pages filled at this time of year.

  35. Alex.Red
    Mushroom

    OMG! I am in shock!

    Survey says that only 65.5% of iPhone users are going to buy new iPhone!

    There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

  36. Hawknic
    Paris Hilton

    A massive swing to the... whatever

    Bit puzzled by this one. According to the latest report from ComScore, with a slightly larger sample size of 30,000 (only in the US) Apple's market share is running at 15%+, or quite a long way from the 50% here.

    The stats seem a bit flawed for this bit. Which makes the rest questionable too.

    Paris because I don't get the whole fanboi/ fanboi-hater provoking journalism thing. Not really news, so a bit like celeb bullshit mag fodder.

    For the comscore press release go here: http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2012/7/comScore_Reports_May_2012_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+comscore+%28comScore+News%29

  37. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Locked in?

    I'm always hearing about how iPhone users are "locked in" to Apple, iTunes, walled gardens, blah blah. Not really sure I get it... it's very easy to put non-Apple/iTunes music on iOS devices, just drag and drop into iTunes and then sync, no problem... for video, VLC will play anything... for e-books, you can get the Kindle app, works fine... I don't understand the vitriol about iTunes. It might not be the best software ever but it's pretty stable and does as intended. I appreciate that it backs up my devices whenever I plug them in. I don't know how backup/restore is accomplished with Android such that it's so much better...?

  38. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Hilarious

    Watching all the fandrois making excuses - but of COURSE the survey couldn't be accurate because it doesn't match our brainwashing! Who paid for it anyway? That's a small sample size! The survey was obviously held in an Apple store!

    ...LOL

    I look forward to your objective appraisal of any future surveys if they show Android on top (which will no doubt be absolutely-definitely-no-question-about-it-100%-accurate won't they? :)

  39. Spanners Silver badge
    Holmes

    Unrepresentative

    I have done an unrepresentative survey as well. I asked 10 people what phone OS are they using. 8 of them said Android, One said IOS and the other one didn't know what an OS is. They were running IOS as well.

    My survey took me less than 5 minutes. It is as meaningful as theirs - in other words it isn't. When will these meaningless pseudo surveys stop?

    Me? I replaced one android with another just after Christmas. I considered various operating systems. I gave Windows7 more consideration than Apple and I ruled it out in under a minute of thought.

    iPhones are for the

    1. uninformed

    2. Uninformable

    3. #shinyShiny brigade

    4. people who think they are creative but are actually oxygen thieves

    5. self identified "beautiful people" who may not be

    and many more

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Unrepresentative

      Tens of millions of people in the US use iPhones. As much as you want to believe that they are all superficial "creative" douchebags, that can't possibly be the case. It's a myth (admittedly not contradicted by the Justin "I'm a Mac" Long TV commercials) perpetuated by fandroids to justify their platform choice. I'm sure most iPhone users are like my aunt and uncle who recently bought iPhones because they needed new phones, iPhones are as cheap as anything else on-contract, their friends had iPhones and liked them, and they simply didn't care very much about what brand of phone they own. And why should they?

      1. Ian Johnston Silver badge
        Thumb Up

        Re: Unrepresentative

        I agree with you. The hip kids now all have Android phones. iPhones are the staid smartphone for your mum or granny. Not that there is anything wrong with that, of course - it's a much bigger market.

  40. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    It's the software stupid

    The whole battle over the smartphone market is largely about the software. While there are small variations in screen size, dpi and cameras it is the software that drives it.

    We know what iOS 6 will be like and it's only minor improvements. So you can bet the phone hardware will be similar. Slight form factor changes, tweak to battery life, CPU and camera. Apple need to do better than this.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: It's the software stupid

      Why such high expectations for Apple? They "need" to do better? Isn't it enough that they invented the modern smartphone form factor and interaction method (i.e., using your fingers instead of a keyboard or stylus)?

      I suppose Apple set the bar pretty high by releasing the iPhone and then the iPad but I personally don't expect them to create revolutionary products every single year...

      1. Spanners Silver badge
        WTF?

        Re: It's the software stupid

        Isn't it enough that they invented the modern smartphone form factor

        About 16 years or so ago, I remember my boss had a Palm Pilot. It was a phone, it had apps and you could get more, admittedly the touch screen needed a stylus but it was also rectangular. Why hasn't Apple sued them for stealing the form factor as well?

        Apple has not invented anything technological. It has got very good at selling the idea that it did though.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: It's the software stupid

          Well, first, I'm pretty sure there weren't Palm Pilot phones 16 years ago. When PalmOS did make it into a phone form factor (Treo?) it ended up having a keyboard BTW.

          Second, you can make any invention sound trivial depending on tone of voice or choice of words. Of course you can blow off Apple's choice to have a finger-driven touchscreen vs. a stylus-driven one as a trivial, obvious modification, but if it was so trivial and obvious, why wasn't everybody already doing it?

  41. Steve Evans

    65% plan to buy a phone that is not confirmed and has no spec?

    Where's the sheep icon?

  42. Ted Treen
    Facepalm

    An original idea.

    I use Macs - and occasionally Windows PCs.

    I have an iPhone.

    Are they the best?

    Well, they are - for me.

    You use Windows PCs.

    You have a Windows or Android phone.

    Are they the best?

    Well, they are - for you.

    I have no idea what criteria you use to decide what's best for you - and I don't really care. If you're happy, then great!

    Enjoy!

    But please allow me to decide by my criteria, what's best for me.

    I will not mock your choices; I will not say you're wrong; I will not use your choices to assess your wealth, your character, your intellectual status, your social status or even your inside leg measurement.

    I am happy and confident in my choices for me: I do not need to harangue others who differed, due to any insecurities over my choices.

    Could we all accept that whilst our choices are undoubtedly right for us, they could well be inappropriate for someone else?

    There are far more important things about which to get worked up, so let's think about those: e.g. governments, surveillance, bankers, and a myriad of others who actually merit my wrath...

  43. measmyself
    Mushroom

    I don't get how people who have done things like go to uni and study degrees and stuff, buy an iPhone. I mean less choice and options on the device, and more expensive, seems very much like an ill informed purchase to me.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Maybe their 'time' has a value and they are not into 'tinkering' - I've been to university and tried both Android (new versions) and iOS and iOS just works better but I want it to be a phone, surf the web, send messages, read emails - not interesting in rooting it and installing custom firmware.

      Most people seem to buy an iPhone but it works very well - most people get given an Android as a contract upgrade (and don't care if it's Android or iOS) or because it's cheaper and most people I know who have actually used both would buy an iPhone if it were the same price.

      That is why I suspect most people who have iOS will stick with it and more people who have Android would and may be tempted to jump elsewhere.

      1. Spanners Silver badge
        FAIL

        Into Tinkering?

        I want it to be a phone, surf the web, send messages, read emails - not interesting in rooting it and installing custom firmware.

        That is why I use Android. Like most Android users, I have not rooted my phone. Like them, I haven't installed custom firmware either. I need a working phone that does all the stuff I want without having to do anything more complicated than installing an app or two. I didn't need many of them either.

        Just because you can, does not mean that you need to. It does not even mean that said tinkering is anything but a minority pursuit. It is interesting to know that I could but my GS2 is, out of the box not only technically superior to whatever Apple had at the time when I bought it. It also gives me that nice feeling that its manufacturers do not sue people just because they are worried about market competition.

        Apple did not invent the form factor of a smart phone. Palm were selling them before the turn of the century.

        Apple did not invent the tablet. I have one from Fujitsu Siemens That had Windows 2000 when I first used it. It now has XP but it is not going any further.

        Apple brought out updates of other peoples ideas and then sued other people who looked as if they were going to be competitors. The nice #ShinyShiny iStuff is not the start of this. They even sued Microsoft for "copying" Windows off the Mac OS. Until someone pointed out that they stole it from someone else first.

    2. A n o n y m o u s

      Less choice and options - that's just BS - there is a HUGE amount of stuff on the app store - do the vast majority of people need / want any more? I like it that I can get a car kit / dock / any other accessory you can imagine for my iPhone - Android is comparatively fragmented.

      3rd party manufacturers can easily make things for an iPhone 4 - but can they do the same for an Acer this, Samsung that, HTC the other or Motorola something else again = NO.

      As for more expensive - really - last time I looked most of the top end handsets were pretty similar cost from Samsung or Apple and here's the kicker - I reckon iPhones last longer (I see a lot of people still using 4+ year old iPhone 3GS than Android handsets as their life expectancy for updates etc. is much higher). So factor in TCO and you may find it's a lot cheaper.

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      > I don't get how people who have done things like go to uni and study degrees and stuff, buy an iPhone.

      They're rich and stupid. But that predates the iPhone.

    4. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      We're looking at this from two different angles then because I can't understand why anybody would want an Android phone.

      I know a ton of people with Android phones and it seems like an incessant song-and-dance to keep background processes from using all their battery power or downloading unwanted stuff. Half the time their phones are either dead and/or they've unwittingly gone over their data plan's quota. Uh, no thanks. Then there's the question of security since it seems like every Android app requires every permission. Then there's fragmentation, where my friends are frequently unable to use certain apps because they're not compatible with their specific phone or OS version. Then there are just random inexplicable problems like my friend not being able to use WhatsApp on his late-model Android phone because there's some incompatibility with it syncing his contacts list.

      Then there are just some things the iPhone does better. For example, I often have to switch between 3 different languages when typing. Switching the keyboard/autocorrect/etc. language with the iPhone is stupid easy and takes less than a second, whereas my friends with Android phones are all jealous since it seems like similar functionality doesn't exist with Android. Also they often ask to borrow my phone to take pictures since, even though I have an iPhone 4 and their phones generally have many more megapixels, their pictures often come out worse due to focus/exposure/white-balance issues.

      So in the end I don't know why anybody would NOT want an iPhone. I can basically rely on my phone to behave the way I want all the time. I never have any problems with app compatibility, or background processing/downloading, I never have to worry about security, I never worry that a picture might have come out better if I had a different phone, etc. I have to say, it's pretty great.

  44. Captain Underpants
    FAIL

    Great, another person following the Lewis Page model: "This model is bollocks, but I'm going to use it anyway because I think it might support the point I'd like to make".

    If the model underpinning a study is bollocks (for example in this case because it uses a ridiculously small sample set with no details given to substantiate any claim of being an accurate representation of population-wide preference distributions) then the only thing that can usefully be said about it is "The model on which this study is based is bollocks, here's why".

    Hopefully Rik will do that next time, instead of parroting the load of old bollocks desired by whoever commissioned the survey.

  45. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    When looking at cost you also need to factor in service. My iPhone developed a fault - 20 minutes at the Apple store and it was fixed - so 20 minutes without my phone. A colleague developed a fault with his Samsung - had to be sent away - was away for 3 weeks and got sent back a refurb. Fancy being without your phone for 3 weeks - thought not.

    Another friend completely smashed up her iPhone (not just the screen) - they basically replaced it for just over £100 - can't remember the exact figure (it was not insured as most insurance companies want about £10-15 a month). Samsung do that - thought not.

  46. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    "all repondents preferred the smaller display"

    False.

    Looking at the table it is clear that a large majority of Android users said that they preferred a larger screen.

    It's also a little bit fishy that iPhone users would state that they preferred smaller displays when that is the most obvious shortcoming of the current iPhone in comparison to recent Android handsets, don't you think?

    1. Darryl

      Re: "all repondents preferred the smaller display"

      Besides, all of those people who are going to buy the as-yet-nonexistent iPhone 5 are going to be pissed if the screen is bigger, seeing as all of them said the smaller one was the best.

  47. BJS
    Meh

    what about people who don't have current plans to replace their smartphone?

    I wonder how the survey handled people who said "I don't have any plans to replace my smartphone". If they simply didn't count those people in the survey, then the skew toward Apple could easily be explained by:

    (1) Android users are more satisfied with their current phone than iPhone users, and thus Android users were not counted in the survey more often than iPhone users; and/or

    (2) Apple is better at planned obsolescence (real or imagined) than Android phone manufacturers.

  48. wim
    Linux

    no love for apple but considering an Iphone

    after the disaster that is my current android phone.

    every problem and question I have about this phone is countered with "there is an app for that".

    yes probably there is but wading through a dozen of applications to finally find a decent calender has left me with a sour taste of android. I use my legacy phone's calender instead. Having google access all my data is also something I do not desire.

    Also every app seems to want to access everything. Why does my Japanese keyboard app need to be able to read/write all data and also be able to send everything I enter with that keyboard app to its developer ?

    android no thank you very much

    I really dislike apple's i phone but I guess I don't have a choice unless some linux wonder phone pops up. But fat chance of that happening.

  49. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Only if...

    iPhone? Meh... only if they drop the price to about 100 quid - then it'll compete with the other platform phones I'm in the market for. But maybe I'm the only person in the world who wouldn't blow their wad (excuse the double entendre) on an iPhone?

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