I don't understand
Your reference on the iPhone losing its 'pole position' goes on to suggest that more are using their phones as smartphones than Android users, Ok actually that supports your html5 contention.
Two of you references are to your own articles, humbly noted.
Your point on cost cutting is a little disingenuous. Yes, they are making use of confirmed and established manufacturing processes and continue to sell the model from last year as well as the year before, enabling these models to be sold more cheaply. Both of which can make use of the current generation of software, entirely at the discretion of the end user, not the carrier they purchased it from.
From the Christensen article you start with, I quite like Horace's response to his comparison to Sony, Apple is not afraid to deprecate, or move on. A stalled desktop refresh and taking in its stride the falling music player sales suggests they already have.
I would like to offer that the current closed architecture follows on from that. And the encouragement and support of HTML5, and webkit just quietly, supports that. It's appropriate, for now.
iOS itself and the iPhone displays this. Yes, 5 years ago the principle was web apps only. This didn't last, and the resulting growth from both sides, dev and os, is delightful.
First and foremost, they are a hardware company. And where it's appropriate, quite open as with firewire. And willing to deprecate, as with removable media, cpu architecture, or firewire. The foundations of the os and the browser are open. Perhaps more of the software will become open also as it is seen fit to do so.
Don't get me wrong, I'm as much for and against as you are, actually the only bit that really stuck in my craw was when you said "over the long haul openness generally wins."
It's proving to be quite a long haul as the behaviour of all parties involved appears to confirm each is in it for their own.