Actually German WWII "over engineered war machine" lesson is more about numbers vs high tech solution. Sure, the kill ratio would have been better for a Messerschmidt vs Allied plane (they had fuel-injected engines, as an example) but the Allied designs were cheaper to build in mass quantity. So while the German tech was better, they couldn't build them fast enough to maintain that advantage.
At the same time, Arthur C. Clarke's "Superiority" is really about completely replacing the old, reliable tech with new, unproven tech, for the sake of doing so, and for no other good reason. THAT danger is real, if the "military industrial complex" gets its way.
The obvious solution to the F35 problem is to NOT put all your eggs in the F-35 basket, but keep some older (proven) designs around, and active, and well maintained, etc.. [and continue development of these airframes for upgrades and fixes]. THEN, work with the F35 long enough to get the bugs out, do a complete re-design as "something else", or re-define its role more consistently with its design [and build something else to fill in the mission gaps]. So apply lipstick to the "oinky" end (as someone else recently posting to an El Reg forum might say).
Now, if some mensa-candidate dim-bulb were to replace EVERY U.S. (or U.K.) military aircraft with an F35, YES, you would be correct to say "It will pay dearly for it one day".
[hopefully THAT never happens]