Breaking 350 million: What's next for Windows 10?

How to sell hardware

Selling Windows is one thing, selling hardware is another.

Surely the manufacturers could persuade MSFT to issue a Windows 7 SP2. Then the boxes would fly off the shelves as if they were going down the Cresta run.

Microsoft's problem is that they forgot what they were selling. They can't see past the gravy of their stockholders and advertising revenue and have forgotten about the meat and potatoes underneath...that is that a large bunch of fairly happy users -the people buying the equipment- are required to make the whole thing work.

The "new corporate strategy" of fuck absolutely everything that isn't about our profit and convenience would maybe work for other products; but an operating system is different because there's a degree of trust required. Not to mention that -by physically inserting themselves between users and their business of using computers to do whatever it is they want to do there's an almost infinite amount of things that can go wrong (which Microsoft seem already to be exploring). I deal with other people's passwords, so even if I wanted to drink the kool-aid (I don't), it would be legally and morally wrong for me to knowingly install a surveillance device on the kit that I use for work...data protection laws if nothing else.

And the elephant in the room...even if you (hah!) believe that Microsoft are using the data ethically, and selling only to hand-picked advertisers; what happens when they are inevitably hacked?

MS could try to use its application software to force a awitch to 10...

... but it could be a double edged sword.

MS could for example make the next Office running on Windows 10 only. People on the Office 365 subscription could be forced to upgrade (this is another issue with the subscription model)

But it could be a risky move, because it could make people look for alternatives to be strangled into a system where MS dictates upgrades, not the users.

Breaking

"Breaking 350 million: What's next for Windows 10?"

Breaking 350 million PC's would be a safe bet.

"How and where does Microsoft go from here?"

Now begins the assault on our behavioral data:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/may/02/google-microsoft-pact-antitrust-surveillance-capitalism

Seriously...

~ Well done M$ execs you got the low hanging fruit. But now you're going to find it rough going.

~ Win98R2 / XP / Win7 had merits. But Win-10 = Trusted-Computing + behavioral slurping.

~ PC market struggling? Then offer some alternatives to windows: HP / DELL / Lenovo / Alienware / Asus / Acer etc. They exist you know!

~ Overall why are Italy and France the only countries forcing M$ to refund customers? This perpetual bundling game is a con, its time for it to die!

Deja Vu

That 350 million figure is still being bandied about. I seem to remember the lead up to a recent event where that figure was somewhat discredited...

...and it might just be that MS's figure isn't entirely above board either. AIUI, 350 million is for downloads/installs to all device types. So it's not just for PCs (although the vast majority of that figure will be, as the Surfaces and Phones probably don't amount to much).

Also, we don't know if that 350 million includes downloads/installs that have been rolled back, or for which PCs people who upgraded decided to wipe it out and start again with something else.

So basically, we don't know what the true active user base of Windows 10 is. I don't think MS do either. But I'm pretty sure it's a fair bit less than 350 million.

It seems the RaspberryPi3 will now boot from a USB drive

so for the price of W10 you can have a whole new PC that you own all of.

For a lot less if you dont have to buy a monitor and plug it into your telly. OK you cant play silly games on it but it seems to work pretty well.

Another lazy hardware bod looking for someone else to do his job

Apple is in the business of selling computers. If you're a hardware vendor maybe look at what they do.

But unlike Apple, MS is insisting that you can't sell minimally powered soon-to-be-obsolete new machines labeled for the current operating system.

No, MS is not in the business of selling your computers for you. Neither is Linux.

MS has a split interest in appealing to vendors, but also protecting its customers.

And since it makes much more revenue from customers (for software and training) than vendors that split is not even. MS is watching out more for customers than for vendors.

Yes, Windows 10 Anniversary Update boosted the requirements for a Windows logo sticker on NEW machines. This is to ensure that newly purchased machines don't go obsolete too quickly.

NO, Windows 10 Anniversary Update does not require any additional resources from existing machines.

In addition, there have been very few desktops and laptops sold in the past 5 years with less than 4 GB, so I don't know what inspired the following strange statement:

"Windows 10 Anniversary Update – which we recently revealed has been freezing computers – puts more pressure on the hardware, demanding at least 2GB of memory, so only those running really recent machines with Windows 7 and 8.1 will realistically be able to start running the Anniversary Update"

I suspect that the freezing computers are often occurring because neither MS nor users nor admins are checking their antivirus is compatible with the Anniversary Update.

That is a mistake I made.

In my case my issues were solved by uninstalling and reinstalling my Kaspersky Total Security.

Let us have more honesty and less hype. Let us have people doing their own jobs and not expecting other people to do their jobs for them.

Windows 10 will run on phones for gosh sakes, so it certainly runs on first generation 2 GB Core i3 laptop systems, provided they don't have exotic peripherals or software.

Of course it helps a great deal if the person doing the update knows to check for AV, video, sound, network and printer compatibility before doing the update. Home users have a bit of an excuse since they can't be expected to know that -- home users can legitimately complain that MS should be doing that for them. But an IT professional lacking that knowledge? It points to a failure in hiring and training.

It's not all bad

I recently got a new PC because of the cost of upgrading which I had to do anyway (nothing to do with the OS). To be honest, apart from a minor learning curve from the move to Win 10 from Win 7 I haven't had any problems.

It runs faster (of course this needs a pinch of salt when comparing to a 6 year old Win 7 box with loads of crap installed and then removed again over the years), is easier (for me) to navigate settings and so on and the only time I get intrusive adverts is if I want to play Solitaire or Mahjong - although it does get annoying when you have an advert for something already installed.

I can't speak for up-graders but I have no problems on a new machine. The only exception would be the privacy settings, but then I have that locked down. Wouldn't be so easy for a basic word processor / web surfer, but many of them just click yes whatever you put on the screen.

*** I have my flame proof, troll blanking outfit on in preparation for replies

I see MS making money the way software companies make money, not the way search companies do

I expect that MS will shift to making money the way money is made off of Linux.

An increasing portion of the revenue will business clients paying for training, support and additions to the operating system.

It will also make an increasing portion of its revenue from cloud services.

Apple, Adobe, Sun (and Java), Mozilla, they all make money advertising other people's products, and MS does too.

But I don't see MS going down the path that Google did and becoming primarily an advertising company.

For one thing, MS is widely used in governments, businesses, classrooms and they'd loose that business if they tried pushing ads in the volume Google does.

So the question is where the new Windows 10 growth will come from.

The answer is obviously from the sale of new PCs, to the tune of around 250 million each year, even now (65 million were sold in Q1 2016).

Regarding the reason people did not upgrade, it has nothing to do with neckbeard worries. Regular people are simply scared of an upgrade breaking something and having to learn new things. When they buy a new PC they will not have a choice.

So it's safe to say in a year's time there will be more than half a billion Windows 10 PCs with Redstone 2. There is no mystery or challenge.

Doom is what's next

So, the knowledge that Windows update X will crash your system but as a regular user you will have no way to prevent your Windows environment from upgrading. Such a wonderful Windows experience, I think everyone should experience this at least once. The perfect remedy for not wanting to stay on Windows 7 :)

Face the music...

Look, with all that has been going on, just face it: We're screwed (with Windows).

If you really want windows, I understand that one can get them.

What?

"Customers will likely forget that pushing now, and upgrade hold-outs could move on."

You're on the money with the second part of that sentence at least, if by move on you mean move on to Mint.

Cost vs. Value

Windows 10

Cost: $199

Value: $0.00

2 GB requirement for Win 10 'anniversary update'?

What happens if you update a 1 GB PC running Windows 10? Does it refuse the update, or does it take it and just run really slowly? Makes the "free" upgrade seem like a trojan horse on 1 GB PCs if that's the case, as they could have happily kept running Windows 7 but if their PC becomes slow with the anniversary update OR they eventually cut off security patches for Windows 10 'original' they can essentially force those people to buy new PCs. Sure, theoretically they could downgrade to Windows 7, but good luck for the average consumer to figure out how to do that!

350,000,000 - 1 = ?

= 349,999,999,

= my PC reverted back to Windows 7. Went without a hitch, thankfully.