back to article iPhone 5 poised to trounce Android, devastate BlackBerry?

A new report on smartphone buying plans provides excellent news for Apple, so-so news for Android-handset manufacturers, and downright lousy news for RIM. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster's annual smartphone purchasing survey – which was conducted by querying 400 people in Minnesota, New York, and California, and in China …

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Re: Korea

"I've certainly seen a big uptake of Android phones here in China too, whereas last year there seemed to be iphones everywhere."

I've seen both. On the subways in Beijing it's all sorts of crap - the occasional Blackberry, lots of iPhones, lots of ugly as sin cheap looking Android crap you and I wouldn't want to be seen dead with (imagine, phones that are at least 2cm thick!), and shock horror, lots of dumb phones :-)

Amongst people that can afford cars it's mostly iPhones and a reasonable percentage with high end korean phones.

The thing is, most normal people don't care about what the inept socially retards on The Register think. They buy whatever they think is best or whatever their local phone seller convinces them to buy. Which usually means whatever cheap POS they make the most margin on.

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Re: Korea

The report as given here doesn't include any breakdown of how many people were asked in each location, let alone how each location responded, so maybe they just asked two Chinese people and one Korean. I agree with you that the idea of my Koreans planning to buy iPhones is not credible. Android has > 90% market share in that country.

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Re: Korea

My own unrepresentative sample of a typical teen fashion victim today who was desperate for I-Phone a year ago and today plenty happy with her Samsung S3 with which she could show me the midday temperature in southern Italy: 46°C. A scorcher. Mammoth definitely a plus there.

The analysts can make more money from phones that can be treated as luxury goods than they can from commodity items. The nimbus of the App Store is fading and the Long Tail has been proven to be a false hope. ow that it's. No longer possible to be cool with the same toy that everyone else has, we're moving back to whichever phone case can be easily customised as a differentiator n. Seen a couple of retro C-90 cassette backplates for I-Phones recently. Should be a big chance for Nokia but they seem to have lost the plot in going for hand unfriendly forms.

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Skewed Sample

The survey is unreliable because it is based on a skewed sample. In the study sample, 52% of respondents have an iPhone, and 26% have an Android phone. In the real world, the figures are the other way around: Android has a 59% share and iPhone has 23% (as of Q1 this year). To expand their share of the market to much higher than its present position, Apple would have to introduce a genuinely cheap iPhone so as to penetrate the low end of the market. They show no signs of any interest in doing such a thing, so they are stuck at 20-something per cent.

There have been surveys like this before. In 2011 there was one from the same Piper Jaffray, which had similar results (64% of respondents said their next phone would be an iPhone), but Android kept on growing, and Apple stayed flat.

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Anonymous Coward

Fragmentation = Choice

With Apple:

One size fits all

With Android:

Do you want large screen, medium, or small? Do you want 4 processors, two or one? Super resolution? Small size? Folding thumb keyboard? Fluo pink or green? Water resistance? Replaceable battery? Super low cost?

Do you want to replace the original touch keyboard with another? Do you want to customize your home screen and add the widgets you want? Do you want to switch to another web browser?

Etcetera.

Choice is bad for Apple, who are extremely happy selling just one model of an extremely expensive device to an extremely large population who are extremely happy to be spoon fed with whatever drops off Apple's corporate arse.

I have had an iPhone 4 for a long time, and it is a nice device, but there is no way around many of its misfeatures, and I am quite tired of the limitations it imposes. For my next phone, I will switch to Android VERY happily if corporate policy allows it.

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Meh

Re: Fragmentation = Choice = Confusion = Complications

I thought I'd add a couple more parts to the equation. Okay, maybe Android adds unlimited possibilities; but it adds mega complication to the point where support on the OS is almost non-existant unless you're a developer who can get in touch with the senior engineers to actually do something. I'm personally fed up with having to tinker with personal products when that's the thing I do at work 9 to 5 everyday! Simplicity works for me and that's what iPhone does. And there's the support you get outside of the mobile phone shops who aren't always that helpful and normally have to go without a phone for a week to get it fixed.

"With Android:

Do you want large screen, medium, or small? Do you want 4 processors, two or one? Super resolution? Small size? Folding thumb keyboard? Fluo pink or green? Water resistance? Replaceable battery? Super low cost?"

Who should give a crap. It's a phone with bolt-ons. It's not a computer. I never knew there were any limitations for phoning/texting people on the iPhone 4? Hey, I even detested the iPhone 3G/3GS as I personally didn't like the design nor did present any value. Anyway, have fun with the countless malware hitting the Android streets at an increasing rate.

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Re: Fragmentation = Choice = Confusion = Complications

And a telephone book (remember them?) is complicated to certain people. There are limitations to using email on the iPhone, as well as in other well-documented areas (I have the 4), and though it does not make it more complicated, it also does not make anything "easier." As you say, "it's a phone," and I would expect to each his own. I'm not sure why you would "detest" a phone, though I have to add that my mobile phones have all been the result of my own (occasionally misplaced) judgment, rather than rationed out by a generous employer, so I can only confess to my own mistakes. I would anticipate that, since you're wise enough in the world to interact here at El Reg, you are also wise enough to avoid any Android malware by use of common sense. But you're right, that could be too complicated. I will be looking to Android, I believe, in the near future.

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FAIL

Re: Fragmentation = Choice = Confusion = Complications

It's a phone with bolt-ons. It's not a computer.

They are all computers that happen to be Hold-In-The-Hand sized. Some easier to hold than others.

According to popular belief, you have more power in a Galaxy SII than in the SaturnV that took Neil Armstrong to the Moon. According to some people who I have less faith in, you have more computing power than NASA had at that time. I don't really know but I once had a real IBM AT - a '286 PC. It did 0.413 MIPS, it had a 20MB hard disk and its memory had been fully extended to 640kilobytes. It was really good.

Any modern smartphone is more a computer with a phone bolted on.

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Anonymous Coward

People, it's not a lifestyle... It's an f---ing telephone!

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Thumb Up

Absolutely, how refreshing to see someone actually say it.

This is why when I bought a phone yesterday (the first mobile one I've actually bought for myself rather than being given by an employer), I approached it from a very simple angle: which handset has the best battery and build quality? The Razr Maxx clobbered everything in battery life and appears to be stuck together properly, so one is in the post.

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Coffee/keyboard

@ AC 0542h

But it is marketed as a lifestyle, and people who can't be bothered to develop their own lifestyle are tremendously grateful to be provided with one that comes bundled with the phone.

Badum-tish.

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Anonymous Coward

Yes, I thought 'the lifestyle' meant something else entirely.

People who are into 'the lifestyle' surely wouldn't be too bothered what phone they had, as long as it took decent quality video. And vibrated strongly.

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Carphones

The iPhone is the XR3 of the phone industry.

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Joke

Re: Carphones

What's an XR3??

Oh wait. yes - seem to vaguely remember now...something fast(ish), flash for wannanbee BMW owners, not many survived into their middle years....made by Fix-Or-Repair-Daily..

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52% own iphones?

Vs. 26% android?

Well it's flawed from the start.

So basically they asked a bunch of people who already own iphones what they are more likely to buy next time.

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Big Brother

Words... words

"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."

Steve Ballmer.

And he's still in charge of Microsoft.

Long may he stay!

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Re: Words... words

"We don't think you can make a great tablet with a 7-inch screen. We think it's too small to express the software that people want to put on these things."

Steve Jobs

And he's dead

Not sure what you're trying to accomplish with random quotes

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FAIL

iphone 5

well apple can do what they want they can release as many iPhone as possible I ant touching a single one of them fact. there a waste of space old OS locked down OS need I say more cheaply put together antenna issues easy to break overpriced rip-off end of. ill stick with android least they know how to make a phone for all customers weather you can afford the top of the range one or even just a basic one for 100 quid they have you covered.

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Surveys

Those figures are pretty bald Does El Reg believe that 65% of the population of China and the US are planning to buy an iPhone 5 ?

These surveys always show Apple thumping Android, but sales figures and real life show it's a pretty even fight, maybe tilting towards Android.

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Mushroom

WinMo8 for me

I had pretty much decided that I want to go this way anyway but after seeing the announcement that companies can operate thier own internal app store for thier own apps on Windows Mobile 8 device, where Apple/iTunes will absolutely not allow it. It's an complete no brainer for enterprises to go WinMo8 when its available.

Goodbye iPhone, you've had a good run but its time to step aside, a new player is coming to town. Android shmandroid - a crashy buggy lump of irrelevance designed for haters!

(sits back to count the downvotes from the unbelievers)

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Statistics...

A statistically insignificant sample size, with no indications that they tried to select a proportionally cross representative sample of people.

I stopped reading after the "400 people were asked...".

This article isn't newsworthy in any way, shape or form. El Reg should have binned it.

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Boffin

Re: Statistics...

There's (l)ess n(e)ws(w)orthy art(i)cle(s) than this on El Reg.

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Thumb Up

you dont know you want a big screen until you have one :) I used to love my HTC Desire cuz it was small, however i bought a HTC ONE X which is massive but soooooooooooooo much better. People only want a small screen because they havent used a bigger one. Phones are now so much lighter size isnt as much of an issue.

Also i bet its higher than 51% who will re buy and iphone. Most of their users are morons and would buy any crap Apple produced however useless or unchanged it is.

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Anonymous Coward

Pocket sized?

Bigger screens require bigger pockets though, so they don't suit everyone.

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Ipad 1 stuck on ios 5.1, Ipad 2 gets ios 6 but no Siri & Ipad 3 gets ios 6 & Siri

iphone/ipod 1 has iOS 3.1.3, iphone/ipod 2 has iOS 4.2.1, ipod 3 5.1.1 & iphone 3 & 4 gets iOS 6 but only the 4s gets Siri

Dear sweet God - the fragmentation!

PS Jelly Bean, aka Android whatever doesn't require internet for their Siri ripoff.

PPS. I've got a 'the new ipad' 3rd gen ipad and love it, but I have an android phone and plan on staying with that platform.

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WTF?

The grass is always greener syndrome

Having used an Android for the past couple of years, and having to set up Android, iPhone, and Blackberry devices for users at work, I can honestly say that I will never give up my Android phone.

It seems there's kind of a mystique about Apple devices. They're stylish, well-built, and trendy. This will entice some Android owners to Apple, especially the less tech-savvy and the ones that currently have a crap Android phone. And most current Apple users will probably not try Android because "what could be better than my iPhone?" We won't talk about Blackberry, because people that cling to these apparently need medication.

I think for the discriminating user though, Apple's limitations start to wear thin. The small screen size, the crap on-screen keyboard. All pervasive and horrid iTunes. No SD card slot. Limited compatibility with various document formats. So-so phone performance. Hardware issues quietly swept under the rug by Apple. And the price. Okay, Siri is kind of cool, but I'd be a lot more impressed if Siri didn't need a server farm in "the cloud" to think for her. That ship has about sailed, I think.

People talk about Google infiltrating everything in the world and taking over. But Apple has already done that for their users. Who else but Apple users exhibit North Korean-esque blind worship of the next iStuff coming down the pike? I realize times are different, but would members of the original "home brew computer club" accept being told what they can or can't run on their device, and suffer through iTunes to get it? Who in their right mind would suffer the locked-down IO of i-devices? The answer is the same sheeple that are too weary or lazy to think for themselves any more.

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Sh*t survey

Did anyone notice that 52% of respondents were iPhone owners? This against a background population of 23% of smartphone being Apple devices. The sample group is clearly not representative, so this survey is utterly pointless. Perhaps El Reg should close down over July, as there's obviously not enough real news to keep their pages filled at this time of year.

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Mushroom

OMG! I am in shock!

Survey says that only 65.5% of iPhone users are going to buy new iPhone!

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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Paris Hilton

A massive swing to the... whatever

Bit puzzled by this one. According to the latest report from ComScore, with a slightly larger sample size of 30,000 (only in the US) Apple's market share is running at 15%+, or quite a long way from the 50% here.

The stats seem a bit flawed for this bit. Which makes the rest questionable too.

Paris because I don't get the whole fanboi/ fanboi-hater provoking journalism thing. Not really news, so a bit like celeb bullshit mag fodder.

For the comscore press release go here: http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2012/7/comScore_Reports_May_2012_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+comscore+%28comScore+News%29

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Anonymous Coward

Locked in?

I'm always hearing about how iPhone users are "locked in" to Apple, iTunes, walled gardens, blah blah. Not really sure I get it... it's very easy to put non-Apple/iTunes music on iOS devices, just drag and drop into iTunes and then sync, no problem... for video, VLC will play anything... for e-books, you can get the Kindle app, works fine... I don't understand the vitriol about iTunes. It might not be the best software ever but it's pretty stable and does as intended. I appreciate that it backs up my devices whenever I plug them in. I don't know how backup/restore is accomplished with Android such that it's so much better...?

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Anonymous Coward

Hilarious

Watching all the fandrois making excuses - but of COURSE the survey couldn't be accurate because it doesn't match our brainwashing! Who paid for it anyway? That's a small sample size! The survey was obviously held in an Apple store!

...LOL

I look forward to your objective appraisal of any future surveys if they show Android on top (which will no doubt be absolutely-definitely-no-question-about-it-100%-accurate won't they? :)

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Holmes

Unrepresentative

I have done an unrepresentative survey as well. I asked 10 people what phone OS are they using. 8 of them said Android, One said IOS and the other one didn't know what an OS is. They were running IOS as well.

My survey took me less than 5 minutes. It is as meaningful as theirs - in other words it isn't. When will these meaningless pseudo surveys stop?

Me? I replaced one android with another just after Christmas. I considered various operating systems. I gave Windows7 more consideration than Apple and I ruled it out in under a minute of thought.

iPhones are for the

1. uninformed

2. Uninformable

3. #shinyShiny brigade

4. people who think they are creative but are actually oxygen thieves

5. self identified "beautiful people" who may not be

and many more

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Unrepresentative

Tens of millions of people in the US use iPhones. As much as you want to believe that they are all superficial "creative" douchebags, that can't possibly be the case. It's a myth (admittedly not contradicted by the Justin "I'm a Mac" Long TV commercials) perpetuated by fandroids to justify their platform choice. I'm sure most iPhone users are like my aunt and uncle who recently bought iPhones because they needed new phones, iPhones are as cheap as anything else on-contract, their friends had iPhones and liked them, and they simply didn't care very much about what brand of phone they own. And why should they?

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Re: Unrepresentative

I agree with you. The hip kids now all have Android phones. iPhones are the staid smartphone for your mum or granny. Not that there is anything wrong with that, of course - it's a much bigger market.

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Anonymous Coward

It's the software stupid

The whole battle over the smartphone market is largely about the software. While there are small variations in screen size, dpi and cameras it is the software that drives it.

We know what iOS 6 will be like and it's only minor improvements. So you can bet the phone hardware will be similar. Slight form factor changes, tweak to battery life, CPU and camera. Apple need to do better than this.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: It's the software stupid

Why such high expectations for Apple? They "need" to do better? Isn't it enough that they invented the modern smartphone form factor and interaction method (i.e., using your fingers instead of a keyboard or stylus)?

I suppose Apple set the bar pretty high by releasing the iPhone and then the iPad but I personally don't expect them to create revolutionary products every single year...

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WTF?

Re: It's the software stupid

Isn't it enough that they invented the modern smartphone form factor

About 16 years or so ago, I remember my boss had a Palm Pilot. It was a phone, it had apps and you could get more, admittedly the touch screen needed a stylus but it was also rectangular. Why hasn't Apple sued them for stealing the form factor as well?

Apple has not invented anything technological. It has got very good at selling the idea that it did though.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: It's the software stupid

Well, first, I'm pretty sure there weren't Palm Pilot phones 16 years ago. When PalmOS did make it into a phone form factor (Treo?) it ended up having a keyboard BTW.

Second, you can make any invention sound trivial depending on tone of voice or choice of words. Of course you can blow off Apple's choice to have a finger-driven touchscreen vs. a stylus-driven one as a trivial, obvious modification, but if it was so trivial and obvious, why wasn't everybody already doing it?

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65% plan to buy a phone that is not confirmed and has no spec?

Where's the sheep icon?

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Facepalm

An original idea.

I use Macs - and occasionally Windows PCs.

I have an iPhone.

Are they the best?

Well, they are - for me.

You use Windows PCs.

You have a Windows or Android phone.

Are they the best?

Well, they are - for you.

I have no idea what criteria you use to decide what's best for you - and I don't really care. If you're happy, then great!

Enjoy!

But please allow me to decide by my criteria, what's best for me.

I will not mock your choices; I will not say you're wrong; I will not use your choices to assess your wealth, your character, your intellectual status, your social status or even your inside leg measurement.

I am happy and confident in my choices for me: I do not need to harangue others who differed, due to any insecurities over my choices.

Could we all accept that whilst our choices are undoubtedly right for us, they could well be inappropriate for someone else?

There are far more important things about which to get worked up, so let's think about those: e.g. governments, surveillance, bankers, and a myriad of others who actually merit my wrath...

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Mushroom

I don't get how people who have done things like go to uni and study degrees and stuff, buy an iPhone. I mean less choice and options on the device, and more expensive, seems very much like an ill informed purchase to me.

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Anonymous Coward

Maybe their 'time' has a value and they are not into 'tinkering' - I've been to university and tried both Android (new versions) and iOS and iOS just works better but I want it to be a phone, surf the web, send messages, read emails - not interesting in rooting it and installing custom firmware.

Most people seem to buy an iPhone but it works very well - most people get given an Android as a contract upgrade (and don't care if it's Android or iOS) or because it's cheaper and most people I know who have actually used both would buy an iPhone if it were the same price.

That is why I suspect most people who have iOS will stick with it and more people who have Android would and may be tempted to jump elsewhere.

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Less choice and options - that's just BS - there is a HUGE amount of stuff on the app store - do the vast majority of people need / want any more? I like it that I can get a car kit / dock / any other accessory you can imagine for my iPhone - Android is comparatively fragmented.

3rd party manufacturers can easily make things for an iPhone 4 - but can they do the same for an Acer this, Samsung that, HTC the other or Motorola something else again = NO.

As for more expensive - really - last time I looked most of the top end handsets were pretty similar cost from Samsung or Apple and here's the kicker - I reckon iPhones last longer (I see a lot of people still using 4+ year old iPhone 3GS than Android handsets as their life expectancy for updates etc. is much higher). So factor in TCO and you may find it's a lot cheaper.

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FAIL

Into Tinkering?

I want it to be a phone, surf the web, send messages, read emails - not interesting in rooting it and installing custom firmware.

That is why I use Android. Like most Android users, I have not rooted my phone. Like them, I haven't installed custom firmware either. I need a working phone that does all the stuff I want without having to do anything more complicated than installing an app or two. I didn't need many of them either.

Just because you can, does not mean that you need to. It does not even mean that said tinkering is anything but a minority pursuit. It is interesting to know that I could but my GS2 is, out of the box not only technically superior to whatever Apple had at the time when I bought it. It also gives me that nice feeling that its manufacturers do not sue people just because they are worried about market competition.

Apple did not invent the form factor of a smart phone. Palm were selling them before the turn of the century.

Apple did not invent the tablet. I have one from Fujitsu Siemens That had Windows 2000 when I first used it. It now has XP but it is not going any further.

Apple brought out updates of other peoples ideas and then sued other people who looked as if they were going to be competitors. The nice #ShinyShiny iStuff is not the start of this. They even sued Microsoft for "copying" Windows off the Mac OS. Until someone pointed out that they stole it from someone else first.

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Anonymous Coward

> I don't get how people who have done things like go to uni and study degrees and stuff, buy an iPhone.

They're rich and stupid. But that predates the iPhone.

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Anonymous Coward

We're looking at this from two different angles then because I can't understand why anybody would want an Android phone.

I know a ton of people with Android phones and it seems like an incessant song-and-dance to keep background processes from using all their battery power or downloading unwanted stuff. Half the time their phones are either dead and/or they've unwittingly gone over their data plan's quota. Uh, no thanks. Then there's the question of security since it seems like every Android app requires every permission. Then there's fragmentation, where my friends are frequently unable to use certain apps because they're not compatible with their specific phone or OS version. Then there are just random inexplicable problems like my friend not being able to use WhatsApp on his late-model Android phone because there's some incompatibility with it syncing his contacts list.

Then there are just some things the iPhone does better. For example, I often have to switch between 3 different languages when typing. Switching the keyboard/autocorrect/etc. language with the iPhone is stupid easy and takes less than a second, whereas my friends with Android phones are all jealous since it seems like similar functionality doesn't exist with Android. Also they often ask to borrow my phone to take pictures since, even though I have an iPhone 4 and their phones generally have many more megapixels, their pictures often come out worse due to focus/exposure/white-balance issues.

So in the end I don't know why anybody would NOT want an iPhone. I can basically rely on my phone to behave the way I want all the time. I never have any problems with app compatibility, or background processing/downloading, I never have to worry about security, I never worry that a picture might have come out better if I had a different phone, etc. I have to say, it's pretty great.

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FAIL

Great, another person following the Lewis Page model: "This model is bollocks, but I'm going to use it anyway because I think it might support the point I'd like to make".

If the model underpinning a study is bollocks (for example in this case because it uses a ridiculously small sample set with no details given to substantiate any claim of being an accurate representation of population-wide preference distributions) then the only thing that can usefully be said about it is "The model on which this study is based is bollocks, here's why".

Hopefully Rik will do that next time, instead of parroting the load of old bollocks desired by whoever commissioned the survey.

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Anonymous Coward

When looking at cost you also need to factor in service. My iPhone developed a fault - 20 minutes at the Apple store and it was fixed - so 20 minutes without my phone. A colleague developed a fault with his Samsung - had to be sent away - was away for 3 weeks and got sent back a refurb. Fancy being without your phone for 3 weeks - thought not.

Another friend completely smashed up her iPhone (not just the screen) - they basically replaced it for just over £100 - can't remember the exact figure (it was not insured as most insurance companies want about £10-15 a month). Samsung do that - thought not.

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