back to article Eurozone crisis: We're all dooomed! Here's why

Quite what is actually happening over the Eurozone I can't actually tell you: it's not that things change too fast to write about them, it's that things change to fast to read about them. Berlusconi still PM? Italian bond yields over or under 7 per cent? That changes as often and as fast as Berlusconi does condoms. France to go …

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    1. Anonymous Coward 101

      Did Gordon Brown really say "the value of your property keeps rising under Labour"?

      1. ideapete

        no he said

        You will labor UNDER the value of your non property

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          laboUr

          "Argh!"

    2. Matthew
      WTF?

      Me thinks that you are confusing yourself. You don't like bankers 'gambling' with others money, but you want them to lend money "to help start ups"?

      Could you please explain the difference between the two and why lending money to start-ups is not gambling?

  1. peter 45
    Facepalm

    the same economic blind spot....

    ....as the council worker I met last week. (Housing officer or something). Was quite adament that she deserved an above inflation pay rise and one of her arguments was that she would pay more in tax and it would help boost the economy because she would spend it in local shops.

    I asked what car she drove. When she said a Mazda, I kept waiting for the penny to drop.........but nothing.

  2. PikeyDawg
    Coffee/keyboard

    "You expect me to default? No bonds, I expect you to die"

    TY for that : )

  3. Anonymous Coward
    Unhappy

    Nice 007 reference in the second section title....

    In the spirit of your subtitle, and since the whole Euro-bailout seems to be heading in the direction of black comedy, might I suggest the following line if an outright parody is ever penned:

    "My name is bond....lame bond"

    That's all I've got, and the sad thing is all I've got is at least as much as the various pols and technocrats who are supposed to steer Europe out of this trainwreck.

  4. Mage Silver badge

    UKIP?

    Hardly an unbiased commentator.

    1. mccp
      Thumb Down

      -1

      If this is meant to be a criticism, it's a bit of a fail.

      We all have our own bias. At least the author has declared his.

    2. Tim Worstal

      Correct

      That's why mentioned it, so that the bias is known.

      Would you prefer that it wasn't?

    3. AdamWill

      so?

      there's no such thing, so what's your point? evaluate his arguments.

    4. John G Imrie

      I'd rather a pieace like this

      with a declared allegiance. Than the tosh that gets printed in the tabloids.

    5. PeterGriffin

      @Mage As long as people are honest about their political ideology all points of view are welcome. I have listened to opinion from independent financial types who have held the same opinion (Greece will default eventually) for many weeks.

      Listen, for example, to Johnathan Davis - jonathandaviswm.com

    6. Notas Badoff

      Are there any unbiased commentators inside a house on fire?

    7. Anonymous Coward 101
      Meh

      What's your point?

      An analysis stands up or fails by the quality of it's arguments. Saying that someone has invalid opinions because he is a member of political party you happen not to like is stupid, though admittedly tempting.

    8. El Presidente

      Who, with anything wotrhtwhile to say ...

      ...is unbiased ?

      And how does having a point of view diminish the information conveyed ?

      1. Paul_Murphy

        Thats exactly right (though it's spelt 'worthwhile')

        It's virtually pointless to hear from people with no bias, even those with extreme views should have their say. We're human, we're all bound to have biases - even if legally we're not allowed to have them <rolls eyes>

        Just because someone says something does not make it necessarily true, it's a view point that can be debated and judged on it's merits.

        Let statements be valued according to their ability to stand up to scrutiny - if they are false then they will be ignored.

        ttfn

    9. Bronek Kozicki
      Angel

      you expressed your opinion but I can't fail to notice you forgot to declare you bias. I don't believe you have none.

  5. Terryphi

    Inflation is the greatest danger

    Inflation is never good unless you are a spendthrift individual or government. The Germans are right : let the spendthrifts go to hell in a handcart.

    1. laird cummings

      :: ...let the spendthrifts go to hell in a handcart. ::

      Nice theory. One problem with it - the spendthrifts have your economy by the short-n-curlies, and they're taking it with them when they go.

  6. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Look.

    I'm a business. I supply stuff on credit and I expect to be paid back in due course. I have a Credit Control team so that I don't lend money to people who clearly are unable to pay me. Mostly it works. Occasionally it hiccups, and usually I survive (the Credit Control folk may have to be extra nice to me for a while). But on the whole, mostly it works. If it goes wrong in a big way, my company goes bust. I know this because it's been that way for decades.

    Now change the picture ever so slightly.

    I'm a bankster. I supply money on credit and I expect to be paid back in due course. I don't have a Credit Control team, I use ratings agencies. Mostly it works. Occasionally it hiccups, and usually I survive. But on the whole, mostly it works. If it goes wrong in a big way, the taxpayer will bail me out. I know this because it's been happening with different sets of banks every few months for the last few years, and very few people seem to realise what's going on.

    See any problem with that?

    [The more detailed pictures goes into Credit Default Swaps and other such tools of the "masters of the universe" in a lightly regulated world. But that'll be tl;dr.]

    Austerity for the 99%.

    Megabonuses for the 1%.

    1. No such thing as an Anonymous Coward

      @Anonymous Coward - Posted Thursday 10th November 2011 20:28 GMT

      Businesses actually deal with real things.

      The banks create money out of nothing, then expect real money (which has had value attached to it by for example: work) to pay off the fake non existent money - in return. Every thing else (the tools of the "masters of the universe") is just to fool you into believing that illusion was real.

      1. Vladimir Plouzhnikov

        @No such thing

        "The banks create money out of nothing"

        If you would be so kind as to explain precisely how that works we will also happily join the banks in the process.

        1. freekyeekz
          Devil

          RE: creating money out of nothing

          It's called fractional reserve banking, toss that into google for an explanation. If you are unfamiliar with the practice, prepare to get very angry...

      2. PyLETS
        Megaphone

        lender's commitment == lender's IOU == lender's issue

        "The banks create money out of nothing"

        They don't, we do - but not out of nothing so long as we intend paying it back. We issue our own IOUs which the bank anonymises and circulates whenever we purchase something on a credit card. Or we create the money when we take out an overdraft or mortgage. (Those who rabbit on about 'fractional reserve banking' don't understand how the current loan-backed money system works. Banks don't keep fractional reserves and haven't for many years.)

        But once understood that it's _our_ money that circulates why should we have to pay interest for the right to circulate IOUs ( which fractional reservists misrepresent as a privilege ?) I can understand the person accepting IOUs from someone with a bad credit rating wanting the issuer to pay insurance. Apart from that centralised cost-recovery function (insurance) , the only fair way to get this job done is if the bookkeeper, as a mutual service to the community, gets paid based on cost of service, pretty much the same way Building Societies or Credit Unions do.

        See also: http://www.gmlets.u-net.com/ .

        Keynes once claimed only 3 people in the UK understood money. I'd now say it's closer to several thousand but mostly they're people who use LETS.

  7. bitmap animal
    Pint

    Smugness

    The author wrote "I've been saying it will all end in tears for at least a decade. I can find a Usenet post of that vintage saying exactly that. Being right is quite wonderful,"

    I'm always intrigued by people who say that as generally it means they made a mass of predictions and can drag them out individually in the future to show how right they were. I have no idea on the percentage of correct predictions the author has made but in the interest of fairness I think it should be considered.

    Regarding Europe, perhaps Israel and Iran will kick off soon and then we won't have to worry about the state of the economy. If not, mine is a pint so I can sit back and watch us all sinking.

  8. Dazed and Confused

    @ Fred Bloggs

    Hit it right on the nail

    Germany won't print money.

    The Euro's problem has always been that it tried to mix together a group of countries that believed that inflation and printing money was the obvious answer (if you are in debt and can keep your income inline with inflation it pays off your debt - that's how the pension generation in this country paid for their houses). Then there is a group of countries, primarily Germany, that doesn't believe in printing money and inflation.

    Who's right?

    Who knows - probably both of them.

    But you sure as hell can't mix them.

    The best solution is for Germany to leave the Euro along with anyone else who wants to follow them. The rest can then change the rules and print money to their hearts content.

    In the mean time, we still stuffed, because there is no way we are ever going to pay for the pensions we've promised each other. If you're not already drawing your pension you can look forward to a bleak future.

  9. vogon00
    Facepalm

    Peston Eat Your Heart Out

    Cracking explanation - someone forward this as a lesson to the ubiquitous Mr Robert Peston.

    Thanks God that I don't have anything to do with politics (Even the office sort!).

    I have to agree with EddieD above - I've been cautious and lived within my means ("If you can't pay cash, you can't afford it!") and am peeved that I will now be suffering because of someone else playing fast and loose with the bookkeeping. Sort of makes Enron's accountants look employable again..

    1. Mark 65

      I'm curious, did you pay for your house with cash as the vast majority could not do so? If you do not own but instead rent then you may find issues further down the track with housing affordability unless your rent has been markedly cheaper than a mortgage on a similar property and that saving has been incredibly wisely invested.

  10. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    I like how we can dismiss economic points on the basis of the author's political affiliation.

  11. Vladimir Plouzhnikov

    There is a solution

    Eurozone countries must become federalised and subject to a central federal government, enforcing the policies of a central federal treasury and the ECB.

    This is the US Civil War moment for Europe - no more procrastination is possible.

    Don't want austerity? - woosh, paratroops land on the Government building, PM "voluntarily" resigns, Parliament suspended, no questions allowed.

    Can't decide when to resign? - a descendant of Otto Scorzeny will gladly escort Musso... Berlusconi to Berlin, for extensive "debriefing".

    There will be blood...

    Oh, I'm so glad the UK has managed to dodge the Euro!

    1. John Sager

      Oh the Irony!

      Interesting thought. It would be deeply ironic if Jean Monnet and his successors managed to do through years of incompetence what Bismarck and Hitler failed to do in Europe by political & military means.

    2. Gary Heard
      Mushroom

      unfortunately

      we don't seem to need overt means like paratroopers, you just get the Prime Miniater to resign and replace him with a technocrat with lots of EU experience, has already happened in Greece and looks like Italy will get "Super Mario"

  12. Why Not?
    Mushroom

    How I see it

    Think of the European union as a couple of Gamblers, a few Alcoholic benefit scroungers, some low income earners working hard to survive, some well paid professionals and a couple of millionaires sharing a house and bills. There is only so much 'lend me a fiver till my giro clears' you can take before you want to move out.

    You could of course join the Euro!

    With the Euro you get to share the same bank account as well. Imagine finding out your car payment hasn't gone out because Geoff has put the lot on the 3:30 at Cheltenham. Or that because you share a house with an investment banker your granny has to pay for her own home care.

    What I think most people signed up for when we joined Europe was :

    'we all live in the same village lets start a neighbourhood watch,have a farmers market Thursdays, collect for the church roof and organise a bonfire committee'.

    We have got something completely different.

    I'm not a UKIP voter (the local representative appeared a little racist which put me off) but I did find myself agreeing with Nigel Farrage's 'FIRE THEM ALL' speech today.

  13. Anonymous Coward
    Go

    Silver lining?

    According to the nice lady on the phone this morning I could have been mis-sold payment protection, and could get a lot of money back. I wonder if greece had it too... Problem solved then.

  14. jotheberlock

    A UKIP column on the Europe on theregister? Really? What next, the BNP on immigration policy?

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re:

      UKIP supporter does not = UKIP column. As for the BNP point ... very silly.

    2. Mr Cheddarfingers

      @jotheberlock

      You seem suprised, didn't you see Lewis Page's anti-Lib Dem rant on the eve of the last general election?

      Have you not noticed Andrew Orlowski's climate change denialist posts and pro-music industry/abusive business posts?

      The stories supportive of extremely right wing celebrities like Jeremy Clarkson?

      If you didn't get the clue that The Register is extremely right wing before this article then there's not much hope for you. It's the Fox News of the IT world.

  15. James 47
    Mushroom

    Why has no-one mentioned Belgium?

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      No need...

      ... to be THAT rude, eh.

  16. Doogie Howser MD
    Big Brother

    CDS's

    Good article Tim, some interesting thoughts there. I would however disagree with your comment that Credit Default Swaps were "that system worked for a decade". That it "worked" is a stretch, I'd probably argue that the only reason they went on so long is because there was a bit more liquidity in the system, hence it sort of hid the problem until the liquidity ran out. Fundamentally though, it's a flawed concept that got swept along in the euphoria.

    For those interested in this sort of thing, I highly recommend "Inside Job". It's only 90 minutes long, and it will make your f**king bloody boil.

    1. Tim Worstal

      Umm

      "Credit Default Swaps"....I think you mean CDO...mortgages piled up into bonds and sliced and diced, not CDS, which is an insurance policy on the default of a bond.

      But yes, I take the point, "worked" might be too strong, "continued" might be better.

      1. Jonathon Green
        Pirate

        "...CDS, which is an insurance policy on the default of a bond."

        I thought the thing with a CDS was that it was an insurance policy on a debt which could be held by somebody else, and might have been deliberately engineered to fail (Merrill Lynch/MBIA).

        More like an under the counter bet on an event organised by an unlicensed promoter placed with an unregulated bookmaker that an insurance policy really. Or ta least my home contents policy doesn't look anything that :-)

  17. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Spain was not a problem, but that is not relevant

    Almost convinced me, until I realized how all this works and why those explanations are absurd. What started to make me wary was the statement about Spain. Spain was never a problem of public, but private debt. All these talks about Spain defaulting were completely baseless, but that was, and is not relevant, because what mattered was, and is, to instill fear, uncertainity and doubt.

    Because what is relevant is why all this is a non existent "problem" . This "problem" is created by the need of having bigger profits than the previous quarter, or year, having spent the previous profits in big bonuses, more risky loans to entities whose ability to pay is doubtful and who knows what else.

    Everybody forgets that, in absence of a money printing machine, this is a closed system. A zero sum game. Whenever someone profits, someone else is losing. So when they have sucked all the possible profits, current and future, from a market, the market collapses because there is no one to profit from. Easy solution, we demand for "rescue" packages whose only purpose is to make someone else richer by giving them a few more percentage points of interest. And who is going to pay for those rescue packages? The taxpayer, of course.

    This is a master plan: they have created a situation where they can only benefit from, extracting more and more wealth from the public.

    They created the problem, only to profit from the solution. The only question that I want answered is this: who is profiting from all this?

  18. TopOnePercent
    FAIL

    Are you all really that slow?

    There's a lot of ignorance around these days, never more so than when it comes to City finance.

    All those complaining that we should nationalise the banks and moaning about bailouts, please get back on your meds. You evidently know nowt of economics or finance and should really stop embarrasing yourselves.

    There's a fourth solution that would work and isn't mentioned (funny, the author being UKIP n all) which is to simply issue Euro-bonds. These would be underwritten by all Euro denominated states, which provides an effective guarantee against insolvency, but without the need to print money and thus scare the auld enemy.

    Now, obviously, there is simply no way we can all continue as we are. State spending MUST drop below the level of tax receipts across the board and permanently. That will require the public sector to feel some real pain of actual cuts, but since that is where the borrowed wealth has been squandered they really have no right to complain.

    1. Mark 65

      Ok, so you've issued them and they're backstopped (underwritten) by all the Euro states. Given you know a fair few can't balance their books and/or cannot be trusted with their finances they are effectively backstopped by Germany. How do you sort out who pays what of the coupons, or are they couponless, and you still need to work out who pays what of the final par? What is to stop them saying they have no money when the bill is due? Who pays what then? Unless of course they are backed by the ECB as the head of all these countries' central banks, which would in effect make them the lender of last resort. I don't understand how this works.

    2. Tim Worstal

      France

      OK, it's not as rude as Belgium. But the reason that French bond yields are rising (ie, prices are falling) is because France has made great big promises through the EFSF about backing up Greek, Irish, Portuguese, soon to be Italian etc bonds.

      And when you crunch through the numbers France cannot afford to back up those promises without becoming Greece.....

  19. amanfromMars 1 Silver badge

    Like a thief in the night

    And that is not all, for there is more s**** to hit the fan, for your political representatives are avoiding making their positions publicly known on this little gem trying to get itself kicked into the mainstream by the back door ........ http://youtu.be/5CZr17HLH5U

    Bring out the Madame Guillotine. She gonna be needed.

  20. nsld
    Terminator

    back in 2001/2

    I was in Greece visiting the ex missus family and with the olympic development and every bank on every corner offering credit cards/mortgages to all and sundry I joked the Greeks would lend themselves into oblivion.

    And lo and behold it came to pass, all those ninja loans and borrowing for the Olympics plus joining the euro really did kill the Greek economy.

    Its time for the Greeks to call Ocean Finance and consolidate into one affordable repayment

  21. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Everybody Pay Attention

    Only two things is required to exist in order for somebody to make money. Delta. Thats a difference between two markets and the change in that difference.

    There is always money to be made, if you understand that Delta. Thig biggest one of all is the collapse and replacement of world currencies. Anybody that thinks a magical solution will be found, are kidding themselves. The big investers want the change.

    They don't know or care who is protesting, or what they are protesting for, they are just making adjustments for the market accounts

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