Did Gordon Brown really say "the value of your property keeps rising under Labour"?
Eurozone crisis: We're all dooomed! Here's why
Quite what is actually happening over the Eurozone I can't actually tell you: it's not that things change too fast to write about them, it's that things change to fast to read about them. Berlusconi still PM? Italian bond yields over or under 7 per cent? That changes as often and as fast as Berlusconi does condoms. France to go …
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Thursday 10th November 2011 17:45 GMT peter 45
the same economic blind spot....
....as the council worker I met last week. (Housing officer or something). Was quite adament that she deserved an above inflation pay rise and one of her arguments was that she would pay more in tax and it would help boost the economy because she would spend it in local shops.
I asked what car she drove. When she said a Mazda, I kept waiting for the penny to drop.........but nothing.
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Thursday 10th November 2011 17:47 GMT Anonymous Coward
Nice 007 reference in the second section title....
In the spirit of your subtitle, and since the whole Euro-bailout seems to be heading in the direction of black comedy, might I suggest the following line if an outright parody is ever penned:
"My name is bond....lame bond"
That's all I've got, and the sad thing is all I've got is at least as much as the various pols and technocrats who are supposed to steer Europe out of this trainwreck.
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:31 GMT PeterGriffin
@Mage As long as people are honest about their political ideology all points of view are welcome. I have listened to opinion from independent financial types who have held the same opinion (Greece will default eventually) for many weeks.
Listen, for example, to Johnathan Davis - jonathandaviswm.com
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Thursday 10th November 2011 21:36 GMT Paul_Murphy
Thats exactly right (though it's spelt 'worthwhile')
It's virtually pointless to hear from people with no bias, even those with extreme views should have their say. We're human, we're all bound to have biases - even if legally we're not allowed to have them <rolls eyes>
Just because someone says something does not make it necessarily true, it's a view point that can be debated and judged on it's merits.
Let statements be valued according to their ability to stand up to scrutiny - if they are false then they will be ignored.
ttfn
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:28 GMT Anonymous Coward
Look.
I'm a business. I supply stuff on credit and I expect to be paid back in due course. I have a Credit Control team so that I don't lend money to people who clearly are unable to pay me. Mostly it works. Occasionally it hiccups, and usually I survive (the Credit Control folk may have to be extra nice to me for a while). But on the whole, mostly it works. If it goes wrong in a big way, my company goes bust. I know this because it's been that way for decades.
Now change the picture ever so slightly.
I'm a bankster. I supply money on credit and I expect to be paid back in due course. I don't have a Credit Control team, I use ratings agencies. Mostly it works. Occasionally it hiccups, and usually I survive. But on the whole, mostly it works. If it goes wrong in a big way, the taxpayer will bail me out. I know this because it's been happening with different sets of banks every few months for the last few years, and very few people seem to realise what's going on.
See any problem with that?
[The more detailed pictures goes into Credit Default Swaps and other such tools of the "masters of the universe" in a lightly regulated world. But that'll be tl;dr.]
Austerity for the 99%.
Megabonuses for the 1%.
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Friday 11th November 2011 14:30 GMT No such thing as an Anonymous Coward
@Anonymous Coward - Posted Thursday 10th November 2011 20:28 GMT
Businesses actually deal with real things.
The banks create money out of nothing, then expect real money (which has had value attached to it by for example: work) to pay off the fake non existent money - in return. Every thing else (the tools of the "masters of the universe") is just to fool you into believing that illusion was real.
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Friday 11th November 2011 17:44 GMT PyLETS
lender's commitment == lender's IOU == lender's issue
"The banks create money out of nothing"
They don't, we do - but not out of nothing so long as we intend paying it back. We issue our own IOUs which the bank anonymises and circulates whenever we purchase something on a credit card. Or we create the money when we take out an overdraft or mortgage. (Those who rabbit on about 'fractional reserve banking' don't understand how the current loan-backed money system works. Banks don't keep fractional reserves and haven't for many years.)
But once understood that it's _our_ money that circulates why should we have to pay interest for the right to circulate IOUs ( which fractional reservists misrepresent as a privilege ?) I can understand the person accepting IOUs from someone with a bad credit rating wanting the issuer to pay insurance. Apart from that centralised cost-recovery function (insurance) , the only fair way to get this job done is if the bookkeeper, as a mutual service to the community, gets paid based on cost of service, pretty much the same way Building Societies or Credit Unions do.
See also: http://www.gmlets.u-net.com/ .
Keynes once claimed only 3 people in the UK understood money. I'd now say it's closer to several thousand but mostly they're people who use LETS.
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:28 GMT bitmap animal
Smugness
The author wrote "I've been saying it will all end in tears for at least a decade. I can find a Usenet post of that vintage saying exactly that. Being right is quite wonderful,"
I'm always intrigued by people who say that as generally it means they made a mass of predictions and can drag them out individually in the future to show how right they were. I have no idea on the percentage of correct predictions the author has made but in the interest of fairness I think it should be considered.
Regarding Europe, perhaps Israel and Iran will kick off soon and then we won't have to worry about the state of the economy. If not, mine is a pint so I can sit back and watch us all sinking.
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:28 GMT Dazed and Confused
@ Fred Bloggs
Hit it right on the nail
Germany won't print money.
The Euro's problem has always been that it tried to mix together a group of countries that believed that inflation and printing money was the obvious answer (if you are in debt and can keep your income inline with inflation it pays off your debt - that's how the pension generation in this country paid for their houses). Then there is a group of countries, primarily Germany, that doesn't believe in printing money and inflation.
Who's right?
Who knows - probably both of them.
But you sure as hell can't mix them.
The best solution is for Germany to leave the Euro along with anyone else who wants to follow them. The rest can then change the rules and print money to their hearts content.
In the mean time, we still stuffed, because there is no way we are ever going to pay for the pensions we've promised each other. If you're not already drawing your pension you can look forward to a bleak future.
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:28 GMT vogon00
Peston Eat Your Heart Out
Cracking explanation - someone forward this as a lesson to the ubiquitous Mr Robert Peston.
Thanks God that I don't have anything to do with politics (Even the office sort!).
I have to agree with EddieD above - I've been cautious and lived within my means ("If you can't pay cash, you can't afford it!") and am peeved that I will now be suffering because of someone else playing fast and loose with the bookkeeping. Sort of makes Enron's accountants look employable again..
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Friday 11th November 2011 02:12 GMT Mark 65
I'm curious, did you pay for your house with cash as the vast majority could not do so? If you do not own but instead rent then you may find issues further down the track with housing affordability unless your rent has been markedly cheaper than a mortgage on a similar property and that saving has been incredibly wisely invested.
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:28 GMT Vladimir Plouzhnikov
There is a solution
Eurozone countries must become federalised and subject to a central federal government, enforcing the policies of a central federal treasury and the ECB.
This is the US Civil War moment for Europe - no more procrastination is possible.
Don't want austerity? - woosh, paratroops land on the Government building, PM "voluntarily" resigns, Parliament suspended, no questions allowed.
Can't decide when to resign? - a descendant of Otto Scorzeny will gladly escort Musso... Berlusconi to Berlin, for extensive "debriefing".
There will be blood...
Oh, I'm so glad the UK has managed to dodge the Euro!
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:31 GMT Why Not?
How I see it
Think of the European union as a couple of Gamblers, a few Alcoholic benefit scroungers, some low income earners working hard to survive, some well paid professionals and a couple of millionaires sharing a house and bills. There is only so much 'lend me a fiver till my giro clears' you can take before you want to move out.
You could of course join the Euro!
With the Euro you get to share the same bank account as well. Imagine finding out your car payment hasn't gone out because Geoff has put the lot on the 3:30 at Cheltenham. Or that because you share a house with an investment banker your granny has to pay for her own home care.
What I think most people signed up for when we joined Europe was :
'we all live in the same village lets start a neighbourhood watch,have a farmers market Thursdays, collect for the church roof and organise a bonfire committee'.
We have got something completely different.
I'm not a UKIP voter (the local representative appeared a little racist which put me off) but I did find myself agreeing with Nigel Farrage's 'FIRE THEM ALL' speech today.
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Friday 11th November 2011 14:12 GMT Mr Cheddarfingers
@jotheberlock
You seem suprised, didn't you see Lewis Page's anti-Lib Dem rant on the eve of the last general election?
Have you not noticed Andrew Orlowski's climate change denialist posts and pro-music industry/abusive business posts?
The stories supportive of extremely right wing celebrities like Jeremy Clarkson?
If you didn't get the clue that The Register is extremely right wing before this article then there's not much hope for you. It's the Fox News of the IT world.
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:35 GMT Doogie Howser MD
CDS's
Good article Tim, some interesting thoughts there. I would however disagree with your comment that Credit Default Swaps were "that system worked for a decade". That it "worked" is a stretch, I'd probably argue that the only reason they went on so long is because there was a bit more liquidity in the system, hence it sort of hid the problem until the liquidity ran out. Fundamentally though, it's a flawed concept that got swept along in the euphoria.
For those interested in this sort of thing, I highly recommend "Inside Job". It's only 90 minutes long, and it will make your f**king bloody boil.
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Friday 11th November 2011 09:53 GMT Jonathon Green
"...CDS, which is an insurance policy on the default of a bond."
I thought the thing with a CDS was that it was an insurance policy on a debt which could be held by somebody else, and might have been deliberately engineered to fail (Merrill Lynch/MBIA).
More like an under the counter bet on an event organised by an unlicensed promoter placed with an unregulated bookmaker that an insurance policy really. Or ta least my home contents policy doesn't look anything that :-)
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:36 GMT Anonymous Coward
Spain was not a problem, but that is not relevant
Almost convinced me, until I realized how all this works and why those explanations are absurd. What started to make me wary was the statement about Spain. Spain was never a problem of public, but private debt. All these talks about Spain defaulting were completely baseless, but that was, and is not relevant, because what mattered was, and is, to instill fear, uncertainity and doubt.
Because what is relevant is why all this is a non existent "problem" . This "problem" is created by the need of having bigger profits than the previous quarter, or year, having spent the previous profits in big bonuses, more risky loans to entities whose ability to pay is doubtful and who knows what else.
Everybody forgets that, in absence of a money printing machine, this is a closed system. A zero sum game. Whenever someone profits, someone else is losing. So when they have sucked all the possible profits, current and future, from a market, the market collapses because there is no one to profit from. Easy solution, we demand for "rescue" packages whose only purpose is to make someone else richer by giving them a few more percentage points of interest. And who is going to pay for those rescue packages? The taxpayer, of course.
This is a master plan: they have created a situation where they can only benefit from, extracting more and more wealth from the public.
They created the problem, only to profit from the solution. The only question that I want answered is this: who is profiting from all this?
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:36 GMT TopOnePercent
Are you all really that slow?
There's a lot of ignorance around these days, never more so than when it comes to City finance.
All those complaining that we should nationalise the banks and moaning about bailouts, please get back on your meds. You evidently know nowt of economics or finance and should really stop embarrasing yourselves.
There's a fourth solution that would work and isn't mentioned (funny, the author being UKIP n all) which is to simply issue Euro-bonds. These would be underwritten by all Euro denominated states, which provides an effective guarantee against insolvency, but without the need to print money and thus scare the auld enemy.
Now, obviously, there is simply no way we can all continue as we are. State spending MUST drop below the level of tax receipts across the board and permanently. That will require the public sector to feel some real pain of actual cuts, but since that is where the borrowed wealth has been squandered they really have no right to complain.
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Friday 11th November 2011 02:13 GMT Mark 65
Ok, so you've issued them and they're backstopped (underwritten) by all the Euro states. Given you know a fair few can't balance their books and/or cannot be trusted with their finances they are effectively backstopped by Germany. How do you sort out who pays what of the coupons, or are they couponless, and you still need to work out who pays what of the final par? What is to stop them saying they have no money when the bill is due? Who pays what then? Unless of course they are backed by the ECB as the head of all these countries' central banks, which would in effect make them the lender of last resort. I don't understand how this works.
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Friday 11th November 2011 11:53 GMT Tim Worstal
France
OK, it's not as rude as Belgium. But the reason that French bond yields are rising (ie, prices are falling) is because France has made great big promises through the EFSF about backing up Greek, Irish, Portuguese, soon to be Italian etc bonds.
And when you crunch through the numbers France cannot afford to back up those promises without becoming Greece.....
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:37 GMT amanfromMars 1
Like a thief in the night
And that is not all, for there is more s**** to hit the fan, for your political representatives are avoiding making their positions publicly known on this little gem trying to get itself kicked into the mainstream by the back door ........ http://youtu.be/5CZr17HLH5U
Bring out the Madame Guillotine. She gonna be needed.
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:37 GMT nsld
back in 2001/2
I was in Greece visiting the ex missus family and with the olympic development and every bank on every corner offering credit cards/mortgages to all and sundry I joked the Greeks would lend themselves into oblivion.
And lo and behold it came to pass, all those ninja loans and borrowing for the Olympics plus joining the euro really did kill the Greek economy.
Its time for the Greeks to call Ocean Finance and consolidate into one affordable repayment
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Thursday 10th November 2011 20:37 GMT Anonymous Coward
Everybody Pay Attention
Only two things is required to exist in order for somebody to make money. Delta. Thats a difference between two markets and the change in that difference.
There is always money to be made, if you understand that Delta. Thig biggest one of all is the collapse and replacement of world currencies. Anybody that thinks a magical solution will be found, are kidding themselves. The big investers want the change.
They don't know or care who is protesting, or what they are protesting for, they are just making adjustments for the market accounts