Re: And the pollies let it happen.
"Some Americans view bankruptcy as a form of economic gain."
Indeed, and those people are called "thieves".
US President Donald Trump is threatening to tack import duties on $267bn of imported Chinese tech gear and other goods – on top of the $200bn already planned. The President told reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday that he may expand his proposed tariffs as part of his ongoing trade war with China in which the two nations …
Does he not know that as soon as the ban on China was announced, US 'Patriots' flocked to Chinese wholesalers to buy up flags?
The makers raked in a small fortune they said 'we make other flags' - keeping quiet about exports to places NOT on the banned list.
As the US tech industry kaaks itself and shakes it's head in the sheer disbelief of a 'supreme businessman' who can't even plastic-coat a turd.
I'm not sure that would work. The EU's also got involved in this trade war and slapped (from memory) 25% duty on US telecomms gear.
Tech companies are also weighing in, with HPE, Cisco, Dell, and Juniper penning a letter to US Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer asking him to hold off on imposing additional tariffs on networking gear, arguing the penalties would only serve to hurt their business in the US.
And a lot of this kit wouldn't be in UK retail stores.. So how it would affect say, Dell, who I think sell much of their kit to consumers online via Ireland. So presumably if PCs or components are shipped from China to the EU by Dell Europe, they'd avoid EU-US tariffs unless they're being applied at the parent level. Same with Cisco and Juniper given they've got big European sales and distribution operations.
EU action may support EU competitors like Alcatel/Nokia/Siemens/Ericsson or whoever they're called this year, and also Huawei. But if the trade wars intensify and China puts export tariffs on tech components, it'll cause a lot of pain. Problem is US (and other nations) tech companies have become very reliant on China to source components and assemble product. Some of that may be easier to relocate than others, especially given the way China's also been swallowing up raw material supply chains.
Aren't US 'White goods' made to run on 110v AC?
How do you sell 110v items into places like... the UK post Brexit where we use 230v AC (until Putin turns off the Gas coz we can't pay his gas bill that is.)?
Please tell us how because I'm sure that there are a few qualified 'Sparkies' here who would love to tell you what is exactly wrong with your post.
>Manufacturers, and ultimately US citizens, will pay the price
That is a massive assumption for which there is no basis. Chinese companies are famous for outright piracy and the tech transfer is also sanctioned by Chinese government, something Trump has protested but EU is hesitating about, most likely since they do not want to be seen to support Trump.
As tech is transferred out, by hook or by crook, US companies become less competitive and have less incentives to innovate and bring new products to the market. Therefore ultimately US citizens will also lose their jobs unless this practice is not stopped.
>Facts are SO much better than feelings and Trump-hate-media-driven perceptions!
I know. Trouble is, emotions tend to overrule facts, so you got 13 downvotes and I got 9. Techies tend to go more for logos than pathos but this forum is a strange exception. It is also hard to know if the downvotes are ticking in due to disagreements or if it is because people feel it is a horrid topic. For it is horrid:
>Arm’s Q2 EBIT fell 99% y-o-y from £82 million in Q2 2017 to £1 million in Q2 2018. [...] “Licensing can fluctuate from quarter to quarter,” says Arm, “lower revenues are primarily due to contract delays as Arm China was established.”
Arm China now is owned 51% by Chinese investors. Arm says this sale resulted in a ‘net gain’ to Arm owners Softbank of $1.1 billion. Arm China accounts for 20% of Arm’s revenues.
With the tech transfer requirements demanded by Chinese government nobody should be surprised companies are flocking to RISC-V. At this rate nobody will know how long ARM will be around.
A lot more people are bound to lose their jobs.
"That is a massive assumption for which there is no basis. Chinese companies are famous for outright piracy and the tech transfer is also sanctioned by Chinese government, something Trump has protested but EU is hesitating about, most likely since they do not want to be seen to support Trump."
China steals everything that isn't nailed down. This is true. How do you stop them? Not by going full retard and attempting to raise tariffs unilaterally. You build a consensus and present a united front. The EU chafes at Chinese exo-scale theft as well, but Trump had to be a massive dicktwat about everything, and got everyone's backs up. You'd think someone who wrote a book about dealmaking was at least mildly good at it, but you know, Trump is too stupid/corrupt to get it.
The Chinese probably have noticed that the West got its wealth through similar and worse tactics. We stole people as slaves for a start. And we stole land that we worked with slave labour. And we stole the produce of the land and the minerals below it. We even fought wars so that we could make them let our drugs in for sale. Noticeably against China itself
The Opium Wars were two wars in the mid-19th century involving China and the British Empire over the British trade of opium and China's sovereignty. The clashes included the First Opium War (1839–1842) and the Second Opium War (1856–1860). The wars and events between them weakened the Qing dynasty and forced China to trade with the other parts of the world. The victorious British were successful in inducing an opioid crisis in China, which seriously undermined Chinese society.
...In 1820, China's economy was the largest in the world, according to British economist Angus Maddison. Within a decade after the end of the Second Opium War, China's share of global GDP had fallen by half. .......e. China was the largest economy in the world for many centuries until the Opium Wars. In China, the period between 1839 and 1949 is referred to as the Century of Humiliation.
>You build a consensus and present a united front.
The important thing with China is that it is not a democracy and can afford not to care about niceties such as united fronts. That is why Tibet is in its present situation.
China can even afford to kill off plenty of their own citizens. Many of my Chinese friends lost friends at Tienanmen Square. This is now nearly 30 years ago and China can afford not to care and even continue not to care about this either. It is clear then that talk alone matters as much to China as Chamberlain mattered to Germany: not one bit.
">You build a consensus and present a united front.
The important thing with China is that it is not a democracy and can afford not to care about niceties such as united fronts. That is why Tibet is in its present situation."
As the rest of my comment clearly implied, the consensus you build is international. Then it's World vs China in a trade war, rather than Trump vs World, which it is now.
>As the rest of my comment clearly implied, the consensus you build is international.
That is quite impossible given the trade and finance deals made by China. I do not like their policies but I do not consider them stupid. And the Chinese government have been very skilled in their deals. So now many countries, such as in Africa, depend on Chinese credit, which comes with nice benefits such as no questions asked and no nagging about outlandish things such as democracy. Look up their belt and road policy and you can see the full scope of their alliances.
So the international consensus you suggest is utterly unfeasible.
Then there is the little matter of how much US Debt that is owned by the Chinese.
Old Turnip Head needs to watch out or Bejing will call in that debt and basically foreclose a good proportion of the USA economy.
Trump seems to not understand how much the US is in Debt. He's only caring about imports and doing sod all about exports. But what does the US Export (that is made in the USA) that any of us wants to buy?
I can't think of much TBH.
Jolly Green Giant Corn perhaps?
Oh wait, could it be GMO'd? I'll pass thanks.
"But what does the US Export (that is made in the USA) that any of us wants to buy?"
The US has, for at least a couple of decades, been producing (and exporting) more than ever before in its history. What's changed is what, exactly, we produce. We no longer make many consumer items like toasters, cell phones, etc. But we make a lot of really big-ticket items like supercomputers, heavy machinery, etc. That stuff is what other nations want to buy from us.
Pretty much all of it. But there is no escape -- the Trump Tax being imposed covers not only the required components, but also raw materials, so even manufacturing all of the components in the US (something that would take years and billions to ramp up to being able to do) won't actually bring much relief from it.
"China steals everything that isn't nailed down."
And the US does the same. So what was the point again?
The real solution of course is to innovate faster than copiers can produce stuff to markets.
But companies, who have stagnated "intellectual property" think they can produce same stuff for 20 years with cosmetic changes, while reaping novelty-level profits all the time.
China is breaking that model by making cheaper copies. That's called competition.
Whole idea of "IPR" is to remove *all* competition from the picture and as such, blatant anti-capitalism. Only owners of the company who has it, benefit: Everyone else loses.
Especially when there's really nothing innovative at all within said "IPR": Whole copyright and patent system is a poor joke as it is now.
"Chinese companies are famous for outright piracy "
Everyone else calls that "capitalism", "evolution" or "development".
"Piracy" actually means that the company owning" "intellectual property" is going to sit on it at least 15 years and not doing any development at all. Totally ridiculous in an industry where everything older than 10 years is obsolete.
It takes an year or so for copies to appear if you really have a innovative product, plenty of time to reap the profits. That's pure capitalism: Fast survive, the others won't.
Works fine in China. But of course you can't afford to have lawyers for 1/3 of the workforce then.
They probably want one, because they know the democrats will be taking over soon in the house, and two years later in the white house. Just like when Bush left the economy in tatters for Obama and they blamed it all on Obama - I saw some serious suggestions from right wingers that the economic downturn before the election was because the market feared Obama would be elected!
Regardless of whether they want one, or what Trump does to create one, one is inevitable soon. We've had an economic expansion lasting about nine years now, so we're overdue for a recession. A trade war will hasten / deepen it, but it would have come regardless. If the democrats were really smart, they'd sit out the next election and make sure republicans keep full control so they have no one to blame. If the democrats take the house, you know damn well Fox News is going to pin the blame on them when the recession comes because they "obstructed Trump".
"...because they know the democrats will be taking over soon in the house, and two years later in the white house."
If they are putting Clinton as a nominee again the White House isn't sure at all. And they will as Clinton will have a billion of "campaign money" from big banks.
Who can compete against that?
Greedy people always go after money, win or not. That's basically irrelevant when dollars flow like a river to their own pockets. We've already seen that and I won't believe a second that the party officials have changed an iota.
Therefore: Clinton, again. If the opponent isn't a total idiot, GOP will win that.
"If the democrats were really smart, they'd sit out the next election and make sure republicans keep full control so they have no one to blame"
The US economy almost certainly will crash and burn, as you say it's cyclical but also Trump's presidency is accelerating the eventual nosedive with his short-termist tax cuts. It does not matter whether Democrats regain the house or not, now or later, or if Trump gets a second term or not, it will make no difference.
Fox will blame the Democrats for obstructionism (if they don't take the house / senate / presidency) and for incompetence if they do. Nothing bad that happens will be because of Trump or the Republicans enabling him. Republican voters will believe every word unquestioningly.
"Who in the world sees USA's Democrats as "Lunatic Left"???
They're barely a sliver away from the GOP. If that."
That's the problem with 'left' and 'right' descriptions, it is literally 1-dimensional. I tend to map political views along 2 axes, economic and social. Economic 'far right' being US-style capitalism, 'far left' being communism, with all the usual flavours in between. On the social scale 'far right' would be the usual association of conservative neo-nazis hell-bent on preventing any change or rolling back the social order back a century or two, while far-left are the ones who want to topple the whole world order to achieve their vision of a perfect world, whatever consequences known or unknown will result from giant upheaval.
In the US Republicans are far right on both scales. Democrats are rightist economically (certainly far further right than any European socialist/leftist party) and indeed barely a sliver from the GOP. On social issues however they are on the far left pretty much as far away from the GOP as you can get..
I would class myself as a moderate liberal, slightly to the right on economic issues (free-market capitalism BUT with strong regulation) and quite to the left on social issues (which amounts to basically live and let live)
"..to create a recession!"
For rich people recession is _good_. That's why it's a regular thing.
Only poor people suffer in recessions as it's a designed property transfer move from poor to rich. That's why we have those every 20 years or so: Accumulated wealth is transferred to rich(est) people. A "gift" from GOP and FED. No others are needed.
Your income may not rise 10% per year like normally, but there's still plenty of it and you can use your loose change (few millions or so) to buy more stuff for cheap or very cheap.
- stock price slumps, buy more stock
- housing price drops, buy some houses more
- cheap to loan money, take more debt with fixed interest and buy even more everything
- buy competitors for cheap and have a monopoly (Current trend to anyone who's looking)
What is there not to like?
When all of that is done, it's time to stop recession and reap the profits.
Very simple loop.
Speaking in a television interview, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that the administration would be reviewing the roughly 6,000 comments members of the public had made to the US Trade Representative on the $200bn proposals before deciding on how to proceed with the tariffs.
I'm surprised they feel a need to pretend they will review comments from any outside party.....
-$1+ trillion / year fiscal deficits as new normal without a recession.
-Record and increasing military spending without a war.
-Petrodollar in jeopardy.
-Appalling general education standards.
-More identity politics.
-Worst foreign policy of an US administration, ever.
What we are looking at is America in an irreversible decline.
"What we are looking at is America in an irreversible decline."
Yup. Has been since "oil crisis" and disconnecting the dollar from gold.
Only the poor has to pretend they have money and fiat money is always pretend money: Absolutely worthless.
Of course the actual decline has started even earlier, but the latest trick of outsourcing manufacturing to far East was the last nail in the coffin.
There's only so long you can sell stuff made in China to unemployed in the US with astronomical profits. "Lower price" is irrelevant when people can't buy even food.
Once that path ends, and it will as it's a dead end, you don't have buyers nor manufacturing capability. All the capital gained is parked in a tax haven and it won't come back from there either: Owners are happy with that.
As I recall Rome collapsed fairly quickly and created a whole panoply of issues right across western Europe and north Africa. currency collapse, power vacuums, civil unrest, breakdown of infrastructure transport, shipping, water supplies etc.
As continuing the wall to keep out Mexicans right around the US.
Trump has already built the wall in the North to piss off the Canadians, made tariffs against the EU and China , extended sanctions against Russia and a good part of the Middle East, thinks Africa is a shit hole and does a good job of alienating most of South America, India is doing OK with China and Russia, Turkey may well be on it's way out of Nato so he's well on the way to making America great again.
No idea what he is going to do to piss off Arctic polar bears and Antarctic penguins but will definitely come up with something.
Louder! We can't hear you behind that wall.
Trump's pronouncements are more about the news cycle than they are about serious policy. At some point he'll probably claim that the tarriffs will pay down the national debt and for lots of lovely walls. Meanwhile the cronies will be rolling back more regulation so that Americans can have lead in their water and air again and Goldman Sachs can go back to robbing the poor to feed the rich.
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