back to article Worst-case Brexit could kill 92,000 science, tech jobs across UK – report

A no-deal Brexit scenario could scrap 92,000 science and technology jobs across the UK, a report has claimed. The analysis (PDF), carried out by Cambridge Econometrics and commissioned by Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, aims to put numbers on the impact of a series of scenarios once the UK leaves the European Union. Overall, it …

Re: meh

"It would be nice to think that they did so, but I have my doubts. Faced with a request from a remainer to come up with a report that show show bad leaving is, for which he is paying them, would you really expect a "well, actually, it won't be so bad" result?"

Well, we just have to compare them with the best case scenario reports created by requests from (and paid for by) brexiteers to get a sense of balance.

Oh, hang on...

I understand the EU has had brexit impact reports published as well, so I guess that just leaves the people in charge of our actual brexit strategy to commission and publish some reports.

Strange that they haven't really, but I guess evidenced based policy has never been particularly popular with the Tories.

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Re: meh

@ Warm Braw

"The point is that there's nothing stopping us having partnerships with the US or China right now"

True. Except of course this is the chicken bones and crystal ball of up to 2030 which China has made stunning leaps forward and we have a fair chance of a trade deal with them before the EU do. Being more outward looking and less EU dependent could easily make a difference.

"The EU has always made research funding a priority,"

So why would the UK scientists be excluded if that is the case? Dont the EU work with countries outside the EU for science or is research not that much of a priority?

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Re: meh

As a Canadian with some knowledge of the situation North America, I can state that most US government research programs are more or less restricted to Americans. Aside from this, judging from what we are going through on the NAFTA negotiations, you are likely to find that the US negotiating positions will be insistent on terms and conditions that amount to "Heads up, we win, tails, you lose."

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Anonymous Coward

Re: meh

Well, we just have to compare them with the best case scenario reports created by requests from (and paid for by) brexiteers to get a sense of balance.

Oh, hang on...

The leavers are far to busy working to waste time & money pissing around with propaganda showing why they're right. Unlike the remainers, who seem to have nothing better to do than whinge.

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Facepalm

Re: meh

Except of course this is the chicken bones and crystal ball of up to 2030 which China has made stunning leaps forward and we have a fair chance of a trade deal with them before the EU do.

So looking forward to a UK-China trade deal. The first stage will be the removal of tariffs on Vaseline so they can make the industrial quantities for us that we're going to need for stage 2 onwards.

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Re: meh

"The leavers are far to busy working to waste time & money pissing around with propaganda showing why they're right. Unlike the remainers, who seem to have nothing better to do than whinge."

You mean the actual Brexit department of the Government, who's entire 1.5 years of "effort" accomplished less than two over-dinner sessions by the PM?

I guess it doesn't help not having any idea what the economic impact any of the decisions being made during the negotiations would have, due to the lack of any studies on various scenarios.

That's the price to pay for pursuing populist policies, inability to make any decisions based on facts or logic, as your mandate doesn't have any basis on those two things.

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From the study:

"As with all modelling approaches, E3ME is a simplification of reality and is based on a series of assumptions. Compared to other macroeconomic modelling approaches, the assumptions are relatively non-restrictive as most relationships are determined by the historical data in the model database. This does, however, present its own limitations, for which the model user must be aware:

• The quality of the data used in the modelling is very important. Substantial resources are put into maintaining the E3ME database and filling out gaps in the data. However, particularly in developing countries, there is some uncertainty in results due to the data used.

• Econometric approaches are also sometimes criticised for using the past to explain future trends. "

So this model is based on macroeconomics and past history. The whole point of Brexit is to deregulate the British economy by decoupling it from the nonsensical, Euro-centric and near-socialist view of regulation on the Continent. As has happened in the USA, this deregulation will lead to higher capital investment and consumer spending, and hence economic growth. This study is about as worst case as it can get, which is not surprising given it was sponsored by the Brexit haters in the London city government.

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The whole point of Brexit is to deregulate the British economy by decoupling it from the nonsensical, Euro-centric and near-socialist view of regulation on the Continent a large part of what's currently its home market and its supply chain.

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near-socialist view of regulation

I don't agree with your simplistic view of EU regulatory philosophy, but even if I did, what's wrong with a 'near-socialist' approach, that aims to create the most good for the most people.

Rather batter than the USian approach.

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near-socialist view of regulation

I think the OP is probably referring to 'neoliberalism' and conflating the rather right-wing 'liberal' economics with left-wing liberal politics, whilst probably not understanding either.

As it happens, the economic policy in the EU that people used to rail about is considerably less 'neoliberal' than folk feared back in the '70s. At the same time, the economic policy in the UK has become much more neoliberal, characterised by things such as ideological austerity, and contraction of state funding of public infrastructure.

In terms of political liberalism, this is characterised by the 'evil' left wing philosophy of 'be nice to people', rather than the 'good' right wing philosophy of 'greed is good, screw everyone else'. This probably accounts in large part for why, when travelling to other European countries, everything seems much more pleasant and better run that it is in this country, from economical public transport, to clean public spaces and parks, to a marked lack of drunken street violence on a Friday/Saturday night (not counting the British tourists).

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@ Pen-y-gors

How curvy is a banana? Or cucumber?(did they retract that one for being too pedantic?). Or what can be called jam? Or apparently the size of a drink in a pub?

Good job the EU doesnt have any crisis going on (Currency, Economics, Migration, Political, Democratic).

Just because I really need to say this to anyone who asks- what's wrong with a 'near-socialist' approach IT HAS NEVER WORKED. The only successful example of such is N.Korea. So I really hope you dont mean near-actual socialism approach.

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what's wrong with a 'near-socialist' approach, that aims to create the most good for the most people.

Because most people don't want that. People are naturally selfish, and want the most good for them personally. They rarely get it, of course, but they'll never support a scheme that doesn't at least pretend to give it to them.

</cynic>

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>near-socialist view of regulation

The evidence would suggest the whole thing is fundamentally Thatcherite: a string of mandatory privatisation* directives ("all member states must open up their public infrastructure to private competition"), union-bashing (use of the ECJ - in despite of its official remit - against unions in eg the Vaxholm, Viking and Ruffert cases), imposition of ideological austerity regardless of situation (Greece etc). Basically what you might have expected from a trading partnership elevated quietly into a political organisation benefitting primarily a gang of multinationals.

But it's OK, here we've got a completely objective non-partisan report from a bunch of people capable of dealing with an atronomical quantity of intrinsically unknowable variables nobody else had the crystal balls for. Who needs evidence?

* If it had been honestly explained before the referendum that the privatisation agenda would include the NHS, do you think the result would have been 52:48 ? Omission of this discussion was the biggest single lie of the campaign.

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Re: @ Pen-y-gors

>How curvy is a banana? Or cucumber?(did they retract that one for being too pedantic?). Or what can be called jam? Or apparently the size of a drink in a pub?

At the lying and myth propagation again codejunky?

I do wonder what you'll have to lie about after the UK leaves the EU.

Maybe you can blame it all on the Turks again, hey?

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Re: @ Pen-y-gors

How curvy is a banana? Or cucumber?(did they retract that one for being too pedantic?). Or what can be called jam? Or apparently the size of a drink in a pub?

You do realise there's a reason for standards don't you? And that things like bananas weren't banned for curve shape?. And that a lot of the appearance of fruit and veg in stores is dictated by a mix of what the consumer wants to see and what the retailers think we want to see? Which is why some of the classifications of things like fruit came about.

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Re: @ Pen-y-gors

@ Dr_N

"At the lying and myth propagation again codejunky?"

Please for my continued amusement do tell me which part you consider myth? But before you do please do check you wont look stupid for being wrong again.

"Maybe you can blame it all on the Turks again, hey?"

Shame you didnt check before writing that though.

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Re: @ Pen-y-gors

@ Triggerfish

"You do realise there's a reason for standards don't you?"

Yes, But we are not talking about standards (they already existed). What we are discussing is law. Law and standards are 2 different things. The standards existed without force of law because a government is not capable of micromanaging everything and when they try it turns out badly. Since it is not even a national issue why is the curve of a banana a supranational issue which requires the force of law (jail and/or fine)?

"And that things like bananas weren't banned for curve shape?"

Now that will require some proving since it is written in law and potential jail/fine, it is hard to argue such law doesnt exist. I did have a similar discussion with phuzz on another thread. Here is the link I gave him-

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/05/12/to-properly-explain-the-eus-bendy-bananas-rules-yes-theyre-real/#b8013286fc9a

"And that a lot of the appearance of fruit and veg in stores is dictated by a mix of what the consumer wants to see and what the retailers think we want to see?"

This is a different topic. If you want to discuss standards fine, if you want to discuss law fine, if you want to discuss the produce section of the supermarket fine but you must pick one or accept the boundaries between them.

"Which is why some of the classifications of things like fruit came about."

Yup in the standards. Not the law, the standards.

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Reports like this will have little effect. By and large the people affected, if they didn't regard Remain as a foregone conclusion and didn't vote, would have worked it out for themselves and voted remain.

What I'd like to see is a report on employment on industries where substantial employers are foreign investors who set up factories in the UK as EU manufacturing bases. AFAICS these tend to be in places that voted leave. They should at least have a chance to know what they voted for before they discover it the hard way.

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Those areas were all covered by the official government impact assessments that they prepared and published before invoking Art50....oh, no, wait....

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Unhappy

"AFAICS these tend to be in places that voted leave. "

Actually IIRC the people at Nissan in Sunderland (who got why their jobs existed in the first place) voted Remain, their neigbours didn't

I guess they just didn't like those Blue signs saying "Built with Assistance from the EU whatever Fund" all over the region.

Still the Brexit referendum did achieve it's key goals.

1) Preventing fragmentation of the Conservative party and defections to UKIP.

2) Destroying UKIP as a significant threat to the Conservative party.

Helping to destroy the working class as a group in the UK is just a convenient side effect.

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Horizon 2020

Total budget is 80Bn, of which the UK presumably pays the 10% (it's average Eu budget contribution) and yet only gets 1 - 1.5Bn on funded projects? Doesn't sound like the UK is exactly punching above its weight in science and technology

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Re: Horizon 2020

But we stop paying the 10% of the budget and we get cut loose - its a bit like not paying your bus fare and suddenly finding you cant actually get to work,

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Re: Horizon 2020

But think of the enormous savings. Since the UK's scientists are only 2% as good as those in the other Eu countries - since they get back only 2% of the grants - we can save 8 Bn by stopping funding all the research areas in Horizon 2020 and it will have no real effect

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Horizon 2020

A good point about money in vs money out however if I know our government they'll fund it for a couple of years then stop it due to cuts, nobody will report it and it'll just disappear.

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Holmes

Re: Horizon 2020

Budget is 80bn for 6 years for which we receive 1-1.5bn per year

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Re: Horizon 2020

So each country receives back exactly the amount of grants to match their payment - even though the applications are all judged competitively on their technical merits?

That sounds like the application process I know and love

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Re: Horizon 2020

"So each country receives back exactly the amount of grants to match their payment - even though the applications are all judged competitively on their technical merits?"

Not quite. The funding is 'broadly' apportioned according to size of country, otherwise the UK would dominate it. For example, it's much easier to get H2020 funding, for Marie Curie grants for example, if you are at an Italian university than a UK one. However, the UK is close to, if not the, top recipient of funding (depends on the year) despite not putting in the most.

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Re: Horizon 2020

That was my experience with ESO ( non-Eu !)

4 telescopes requiring 4 identical auxiliary systems.

2 were built in Germany, one in Holland and one in Belgium - to three different designs - to match contributions.

IIRC one of the low country units never worked and we had to build another copy of the German ones out of slush fund

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Amsterdam

I think the EU is good, others may have different viewpoints.

I have globally transportable skills, have seen some opportunities in Amsterdam and am investigating moving there to live and work.

I am a free person and currently still have the right to vote with my feet - Next year I may not.

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Re: Amsterdam

@ Bill M

"I think the EU is good, others may have different viewpoints.

I have globally transportable skills, have seen some opportunities in Amsterdam and am investigating moving there to live and work.

I am a free person and currently still have the right to vote with my feet - Next year I may not."

That is a respectable view except why cant you next year? Do the EU not want you? Obviously you support the EU in your desire to consider moving there to live and work. You claim to have globally transportable skills so why wont the EU want someone skilled? Maybe you should consider going before next year if your afraid the EU will be childish and exclude people from outside the EU?

I hope your wrong about the EU and I hope the UK doesnt turn into the isolationist place you think the EU will.

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Re: Amsterdam

It's a protectionist gravy train that hides it's expenditure, treads on governments to keep them in line, and sacked the last person to do their records after he never signed them off once.

After Brexit expect it to become really protectionist and drive away business. They still haven't said a word about Spain battering old Catalonian ladies out voting either.

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Re: Amsterdam

@codejunky,

My crystal ball is murky re accurately predicting what will happen in 2019, but I do have bad vibes about countries / economic areas becoming introverted. Being stuck on a small island that does not produce enough food to feed its population would be inconvenient.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Amsterdam

They still haven't said a word about Spain battering old Catalonian ladies out voting either.

Certain politicians have said that they look forward to an Eu modeled on the federal USA.

The USA had a remarkably bloody civil war when states tried to leave.

The same Eu politician wants an Eu military force.

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Re: Amsterdam

does not produce enough food

"does not" isn't the same as "can not", once we're free of the CAP we'll be less restricted. And of course not being in the EU won't stop us buying from them if we want to, as we do today from US, NZ, and various other parts of the world.

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Re: Amsterdam

>You claim to have globally transportable skills so why wont the EU want someone skilled?

Oh do keep up codejunky: Brexit is occuring!

Brits are losing their right to work across the EU. uk.gov is only negotiating for British citizens to be able to live and work in their EU country of residence. Not elsewhere in the EU.

Thus if you have a job that entails work across Europe you will need to obtain work permits for each country. (In my case that'd be: Spain, Portugal, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Belgium and Holland. Not sure about Ireland.)

No one will bother employing Brits in these roles after brexit.

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FAIL

Re: Amsterdam

Brits are losing their right to work across the EU. uk.gov is only negotiating for British citizens to be able to live and work in their EU country of residence. Not elsewhere in the EU.

People complain a lot about the "£350m for the NHS" propangda FUD, but this is a perfect example of lying Remainer FUD. No-one except remainers has ever suggested that people will lose the right to work across the EU, people had that right to work across Europe before the EU existed, the EU has nothing to do with it.

Thus if you have a job that entails work across Europe you will need to obtain work permits for each country. (In my case that'd be: Spain, Portugal, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Belgium and Holland. Not sure about Ireland.)

Not true.

If you want to be hired for a full-time job in another country you may need a work and/or residence permit (which wasn't hard to get even before the EU) but if you're employed in the UK and need to travel to other countries for a few months at a time for work there is no suggestion nor likelihood that you'll need a work permit, or even a visa, any more than you do today if you travel to non-EU countries like the US, Canada, Middle East, etc.

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Re: Amsterdam

That is a respectable view except why cant you next year? Do the EU not want you? Obviously you support the EU in your desire to consider moving there to live and work. You claim to have globally transportable skills so why wont the EU want someone skilled? Maybe you should consider going before next year if your afraid the EU will be childish and exclude people from outside the EU?

You know how it goes. If you apply after Brexit, you will be from outside the EU and EU countries have to demonstrate that they've tried to look for someone from inside the EU first. That's a practical effect of the referendum vote.

There is also the chance that someone who has used their EU treaty rights may get to keep them after Brexit which will make living and working in the EU easier, so the EU aren't being childish. If you never used your EU treaty rights, you're definitely going to be treated as anyone from outside the EU (foreign visa, etc...). Or are you a fan of pointless bureaucracy?

If you want them to make a special exception for the UK, we've already got it. The referendum vote was a vote to throw that away.

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Re: Amsterdam

@ Bill M

"but I do have bad vibes about countries / economic areas becoming introverted."

I get that. I am hoping the UK doesnt and it would be nice if the EU didnt but its up to them. That is why I suggested going before the EU potentially lock themselves down. I dont think the EU can be considered good and introverted but if you can reconcile the two (or accept their potential introversion) you probably should try to get to the place you like.

Something I find pretty irritating is we have the EU we must open our borders for yet I have friends from the US, Russia, Asia as well as Europe and yet those outside the EU have such a hard time. Hard workers who need to figure out visa restrictions competing with people who can come here with relatively no hassle. I would like to see a more even approach but also to be more accepting world wide not just for the EU.

"Being stuck on a small island that does not produce enough food to feed its population would be inconvenient."

If you have such skills why would you be stuck? And this country cant produce enough food, it hasnt for a long time. Yet if food is your concern you might want to know that the high cost of food is due to being in the EU locking out poorer countries from trade (keeping them poor).

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Re: Amsterdam

@Phil O'Sophical

Sorry Phil, you are wrong. e.g. Working in France without a work permit or visa (a la non-EU citizens) will result in a visit by the inspecteur du travail accompanied by the gendarmerie.

I know of at least 1 high tech French company who tried it on with Indian engineers who were over on business visas but actually working on a live project "for a few weeks."

After a snap inspection (Literally, "Show me your papers!") the Indians got thrown out and the company was fined.

That is the future for Brits and that is perfectly understandable. It's what the UK voted for.

Just because the UK doesn't do things properly, doesn't mean other EU countries don't.

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Re: Amsterdam

Sorry Phil, you are wrong. e.g. Working in France without a work permit or visa (a la non-EU citizens) will result in a visit by the inspecteur du travail accompanied by the gendarmerie.

I know of at least 1 high tech French company who tried it on with Indian engineers who were over on business visas but actually working on a live project "for a few weeks."

After a snap inspection (Literally, "Show me your papers!") the Indians got thrown out and the company was fined.

I work for an international company that has engineers from US, India and the EU often working in one anothers countries. A few countries, India is an obvious one, insist on an expensive Business or Work (they are different) visa to travel to them, and so other countries tend to reciprocate for Indian passport holders. UK travel to the US and Canada doesn't require a visa for short-term business purposes, I've been doing that for 25 years without problems.

In the rare cases when you need a visa there is no problem if you have the correct one. Your comment that the visiting Indian staff were 'actually working on a live project "for a few weeks."' sounds like the French company was, as you say, trying it on with the wrong visas (which are significantly cheaper), and got caught. Their own fault.

That is the future for Brits and that is perfectly understandable.

It's extremely unlikely to be the future for Brits, and certainly not within Europe. There's no reason for the UK to apply such draconian rules to workers from EU countries (it has already said it won't), and so no reason for a tit-for-tat reaction from the EU.

Just because the UK doesn't do things properly, doesn't mean other EU countries don't.

By "properly" you mean "deliberately awkward and difficult for foreigners" you mean? That's certainly the French way of doing things (especially for foreigners are aren't the "right" colour) but generally not a UK trait, happily.

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Re: Amsterdam

@Phil O'Sophical

Sorry again Phil, maybe we are talking at cross purposes.

I was talking about working outside of your country of residence. You are quite correct that you normally don't need anything more than a standard vistor's visa (or visa waiver in the US) for business trips: Meeting, training, pre-sales. Maybe even a bit of light on-site support.

However if you want to work you need a visa in most cases. If you work without obtaining a visa you open yourself up to a whole world of possible bad consequences. If you don't believe me, try telling the immigration officer in the US that you are coming "to work" next time you visit the US.

If you've prevously been illegally working without getting caught, then that's fine. I hope you haven't got too strong views on illegal immigrants working in the UK. (Because I hear it's no fun, being an illegal alien?)

My take is that uk.gov are not looking at these issues because they just don't care. The number of people affected probably won't be that many. And most no longer have the right to vote anyway!

Those it does affect just have to suck it up and take the licks life deals. Personally I think it's the right time to look at working outside of the EU if you're a Brit who up until now has enjoyed working in multiple EU countries. If you have to get visas, might as well go all out and try the US or elsewhere.

Either that or "Go Back To Where You Came From!" ;-)

Fair's fair.

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Re: Amsterdam

You are quite correct that you normally don't need anything more than a standard vistor's visa (or visa waiver in the US) for business trips: Meeting, training, pre-sales. Maybe even a bit of light on-site support.

However if you want to work you need a visa in most cases.

Agreed, it all hinges on the definition of "work". In the case of the US if the trip is less than 90 days, you're not being paid by a US entity, and you're not there to negotiate contracts, set up a business, etc. then you're OK. India can be trickier, their new electronic visa says that it is acceptable for "casual business purposes" but no-one could tell me what "casual" meant for certain, so I had to go through the usual painful business visa process.

Given how much hassle and paperwork it would be to manage, I still believe it's extremely unlikely that any major restrictions will apply to UK/EU work-related travel as long as it doesn't involve taking up residence or long-term locally-paid employment. Those latter cases are still unclear, but needing extra paperwork for such a long-term arrangement isn't likely to be a major extra inconvenience. It may well be arranged on a whole-EU basis, much as a visitor from outside the EU can today apply for a "Schengen Visa" that gives them entry to all of the Schengen area in one go.

if you're a Brit who up until now has enjoyed working in multiple EU countries. If you have to get visas, might as well go all out and try the US or elsewhere.

I'm really not sure anyone could pay me enough to live/work in the US full-time. It's a great place to visit, but... :)

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Re: Amsterdam

there is no suggestion nor likelihood that you'll need a work permit, or even a visa, any more than you do today if you travel to non-EU countries like the US, Canada, Middle East, etc.

You know you do need a visa to do real actual work in the US. Currently we are told to lie to Immigration* and say that we are travelling for "meetings and training". Definitely not any actual programming officer, I just bring my das keyboard everywhere I go.

* To be honest, if they asked me to go back these days, I'd have to think hard about it.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Amsterdam

>It's extremely unlikely to be the future for Brits, and certainly not within Europe. There's no reason for the UK to apply such draconian rules to workers from EU countries (it has already said it won't), and so no reason for a tit-for-tat reaction from the EU.

Except that the EU are bringing in ETIAS Visas in the near future. All visitors from 3rd countries, which the UK will be, will need approval in advance to travel into the Schengen Zone.

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Re: Amsterdam

Given how much hassle and paperwork it would be to manage, I still believe it's extremely unlikely that any major restrictions will apply to UK/EU work-related travel

Sorry, but the UK voted to leave the EU and the government has taken that to mean the EFTA too. The paperwork will not be hassle, it will just be a fact of life. If you were from Turkey (sort of attached to the customs union) you wouldn't get away with it, so the UK won't either.

The UK isn't that special and amazing that it will get exemption rules for all 66 million people. The most that will happen is that British citizens who have used their EU treaty rights will retain some of them.

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Re: Amsterdam

"And of course not being in the EU won't stop us buying from them if we want to" and can afford to.

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Re: Amsterdam

Except that the EU are bringing in ETIAS Visas in the near future. All visitors from 3rd countries, which the UK will be, will need approval in advance to travel into the Schengen Zone.

Just like an ESTA for the US, where once every 2 years you have to spend 5 minutes filling in a form on a website? Not a major issue.

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Re: Amsterdam

The UK isn't that special and amazing that it will get exemption rules for all 66 million people.

Let's wait and see...

And while doing so, consider the status of people from places like the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands. Neither is in the EU, and people with British Islands passports do not benefit from the EU rules on free movement. All the same, most EU countries accept such travellers as they do any other European traveller, at least for brief visits. I'd imagine there would be more paperwork if someone from those places wanted to settle or work permanently in the EU.

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Re: Amsterdam

"And of course not being in the EU won't stop us buying from them if we want to" and can afford to.

Can they afford not to sell to us? The UK is the biggest export market in the EU for a number of products, like German luxury cars. It's clear that the EU politicos need Brexit to fail, but whether all the members will toe the line & write off one of their largest markets remains to be seen.

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Re: Amsterdam

The only way to get a special exemption for all 66 million Brits would be to give one to all EU citizens, which makes Brexit pointless.

Channel Islanders don't have residency rights and can't live and work in EU countries. That's not the same as freedom of movement, they have FoM and can move around the EU for up to three months.

If a Channel Islander is a resident in the UK for five years, they get residency rights in the rest of the EU as if they were EU citizens.

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