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back to article Volkswagen blames emissions cheating on 'chain of errors'

Volkswagen has released the initial findings of an ongoing internal review in the emissions scandal that has engulfed it in recent months and concluded that it was a few bad apples and a "chain of errors." At a press conference at the car manufacturer's headquarters in Wolfsburg, its chairman, Hans Dieter Potsch, tried to put …

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      1. DavCrav
        Reply Icon

        Re: concluded that it was a few bad apples and a "chain of errors"

        "Odd thing is that there's no linear relationship between lung cancer and tobacco consumption. There is however a linear relationship between ischaemic heart disease/lung cancer and amount of vehicular travel."

        Why should we expect a linear relationship? That seems quite crazy actually. Because eventually it means that I will have a more than 100% chance of getting lung cancer.

        We are very happy with a correlative, even causative, link, between getting shot in the face and dying. But if you get shot in the face fifteen times you still only die once. Linear relationships between a potentially infinite quantity (tobacco consumed) and a finite quantity (proportion of people getting lung cancer) cannot exist, logically.

        And expecting perfect correlation, as in the article you linked, is just as stupid. In that case, margarine consumption in the US definitely causes divorces in Maine, as there is a 0.99 correlation between them. See, for example,

        http://twentytwowords.com/funny-graphs-show-correlation-between-completely-unrelated-stats-9-pictures/

        And so the rest of your post, along with this Mr Robinson's argument, collapses.

        Disclaimer: I have a DPhil in mathematics from the University of Oxford, and around ten years' experience in mathematics research. I have been asked for comment on mathematics and statistics matters by various publications including the BBC, the Guardian and the British Medical Journal. Mr Robinson's argument is bullshit, and that might have been why his book was a flop.

        22 1 Reply
        1. Pompous Git Silver badge
          Reply Icon

          Re: concluded that it was a few bad apples and a "chain of errors"

          Why should we expect a linear relationship? That seems quite crazy actually. Because eventually it means that I will have a more than 100% chance of getting lung cancer.

          Cartoon example:

          There are 1,000,000 smokers in the country.

          The rate of death from lung cancer is 1%.

          Therefore there are 10,000 lung cancer deaths.

          Tobacco consumption increases by 50%.

          There are now 1,500,000 smokers.

          If the rate of death from lung cancer remains constant, we should expect to see 15,000 lung cancer deaths.

          We don't. Instead we see a greater number implying either that over time tobacco becomes ever more potent, or that some other factor is in play.

          Individual smokers do not consume "a potentially infinite quantity" of tobacco. That is logically impossible.

          FWIW, the average cigarette has decreased in both nicotine and tar content over the years. It's an odd substance that becomes more toxic when you consume less of it.

          1 5 Reply
          1. Roo
            Reply Icon
            Windows

            Re: concluded that it was a few bad apples and a "chain of errors"

            "It's an odd substance that becomes more toxic when you consume less of it."

            I hope you stay well away from the advising HMG - they'll ban Oxygen before you know it. :)

            1 0 Reply
      2. Anonymous Coward
        Reply Icon
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: concluded that it was a few bad apples and a "chain of errors"

        "While causation is not proof of causation, lack of correlation indicates lack of causation."

        I hope you edited it better than the editor of the book I read recently where semiconductor holes were confused with positrons. Because, to be quite frank, your understanding of statistical analysis and pattern identification would seem to be defective.

        Take a look at this:

        Trends in lung cancer

        That's right; during the period shown male lung cancer was going down while that in women was going up. That's just ruled out your "petrol consumption" as an explanation, right there, along with a whole lot of other "correlations".

        So why the change in pattern? Because, as the text explains, male smoking peaked earlier and men started to give up, while smoking in women continued to increase. Given the delay in onset of lung cancer, that's evidence. In fact, the very next graph shows very elegantly how as the incidence of male smoking converged with that of women smoking, so the male and female lung cancer rates are also converging rapidly with time.

        Another paper you might like to look at is BMB study which shows that smoking can be treated as an epidemic which has a surprisingly common epidemiology across ranges of countries.

        There is other evidence that during the period, while the incidence of women smoking broadly stabilised the pattern of smoking changed; as wages increased the women who did smoke, smoked more. See Patterns of tobacco use, the paragraph on incidence of heavy smoking.

        The tl;dr is that you are quite wrong; a simplistic correlation of petrol use to lung cancer is contradicted as soon as the facts are looked at in any detail, whereas once the detail is investigated extremely strong correlations are established between patterns of smoking with time, gender and duration of smoking, and lung cancer incidence.

        12 1 Reply
        1. Pompous Git Silver badge
          Reply Icon

          Re: concluded that it was a few bad apples and a "chain of errors"

          I hope you edited it better than the editor of the book I read recently where semiconductor holes were confused with positrons.

          A technical book usually has many editors. The original MS was several thousand pages and unreadable by a layman. I highlighted what should be focussed on to generate a readable book; that is what should be omitted. The original MS (that I still possess) contained most of the contents of the following:

          Disturbances in the blood due to driving

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(82)90026-3/abstract

          Heart disease, cancer and vehicle travel

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(79)90012-4/abstract

          Male, female heart disease-relationship with vehicle travel

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(79)90104-X/abstract

          Cerebrovascular disease, ischaemic heart disease, and the stress of vehicle travel

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(89)90093-5/abstract

          Ischaemic heart disease, and vehicle travel

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(87)90061-2/abstract

          Diseases of malfunction of body mechanisms. (Heart disease, diabetes, cancer etc.) risk by occupation, and correlation, male and female, with vehicle travel

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(83)90087-7/abstract

          Cancer: A statistical relationship with road accident deaths and driving

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(94)90057-4/abstract

          Leukaemia, a close association with vehicle travel

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(91)90264-Y/abstract

          Cancer deaths due to all causes, its relationship with vehicle travel in Australia, Japan and European countries

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(91)90263-X/abstract

          The prediction of lung cancer in Australia 1939–1981

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(86)90035-6/abstract

          Lung cancer, the motor vehicle and its subtle influence on body functions

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(89)90151-5/abstract

          Cancer of the lymphatic system and leukaemia a correlation with vehicle accidents

          http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/0306-9877(82)90165-7/abstract

          As well, I looked at some of the data myself:

          http://www.maths.utas.edu.au/DHStat/Data/CancPet.html

          Here you will see that a 10% increase in the population of smokers does not result in a 10% increase in lung cancer deaths. The amount of increase depends on when it occurred in time. The increase in lung cancer deaths was readily predicted by knowing the increase in petrol consumption, as was the rate of ischaemic heart disease.

          Further, the rate of these diseases where driving did not occur was zero. In the 35 years that data was available for Risdon Prison, the number of prisoners dying from these diseases was zero. New Guinea Highlanders who remain in the highlands where there are no motor cars also have a zero rate of incidence. Two years after moving to Port Moresby, the rate of these diseases is the same as the general population. This could not be attributed to dietary change; I checked. Trappist monks do not suffer from ischaemic heart disease.

          The tl;dr is that you are quite wrong

          Not really. I was asked to fact check a very long MS. I read all of Robinson's papers and several he referred to. I discussed some of the data with a statistician working with the Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics since I was not a statistician. He confirmed that Robinson's statistical analyses were kosher. I also discussed it with a medical practitioner whose response was "But everybody already knows this". Not me obviously! Consequently, I recommended publication. I did what I was paid to do. All later editing/proofreading was either done by the publisher or someone he hired.

          I do accept responsibility for the typo in "While causation is not proof of causation, lack of correlation indicates lack of causation" where clearly I meant to type "While causation is not proof of correlation". My bad.

          0 7 Reply
  2. a_yank_lurker

    Is VW the sacrificial lamb

    US environmental policy often seems to be driven by pure politics. VW is an uppity German company making inroads and apparently not greasing the right hands. Therefore VW must be hammered for both their sins and the sins of the USEPA.

    The US EPA is known to release a regulation without considering how one can properly test for compliance. The last time I checked the US EPA had regulation require flammable solid wastes be classified as a hazardous waste. But they had no test suitable for testing these wastes. I often wondered if someone should have sued the USEPA for the illegal disposal of paper - it is flammable.

    9 7 Reply
    1. Mpeler
      Reply Icon
      Holmes

      Re: Is VW the sacrificial lamb

      The EPA know full well their freshly minted "standards" are not attainable. Notice also the paucity of US-made diesel autos. They have been trying to kill diesel autos for 30 years now, even longer in Kalifornistan (of which I am a native, so I know of what I speak).

      The EPA is also trying to control ALL waterways, be they tiny streams, temporary ponds, whatever, so they can tell farmers what to do. It is all a thinly-veiled power grab.

      Other automakers are now being investigated in the EU. Seems that VW were the ones that got "caught".

      This time...

      7 3 Reply
      1. Anonymous Coward
        Reply Icon
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Is VW the sacrificial lamb

        "The EPA is also trying to control ALL waterways, be they tiny streams, temporary ponds, whatever, so they can tell farmers what to do. "

        Not surprisingly, since what farmers do includes runoff, illegal discharges and stuffing animals with antibiotics and hormones which find their way elsewhere in the food chain. Farming needs to be more tightly regulated, and not by agribusiness.

        22 1 Reply
        1. Gordon 10
          Reply Icon

          Re: Is VW the sacrificial lamb

          Also do you realise what's happening to your aquifers in the land of the perma-tanned? The EPA probably has the right idea in this case. If climate change hits the west coast rainfall patterns in the next few years you're pretty much screwed.

          4 1 Reply
    2. Anonymous Coward
      Reply Icon
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Is VW the sacrificial lamb

      VW is an uppity German company making inroads and apparently not greasing the right hands.

      Bears defecate in woods et al. The politicisation and petty nationalism of US regulators is well known (and certainly not unique to the US). If VW wanted a piece of the US car market, then they knew the official rules - and the unofficial one that when furrin companies are caught breaking the rules, they have the book thrown at them). In part that's an occupational hazard of doing business in the US, and applies to all foreign companies, regardless of their foreign domicile or their market. But in this particular case VW should have evaluated the consequences of being caught cheating, and understood that the consequences would be public shame and a big fat fine, probably in the low multi-billion dollar range. One thing they might have also assumed would be lost sales and brand damage, but a quick google suggests that those apply more in Europe than the US.

      So on balance, VW a sacrificial lamb? Nope. Just a reckless company who decided to try and outwit the regulators regardless of the likely consequences.

      7 0 Reply
  3. DerekCurrie
    Devil

    hahaha HaHaHa! HAHAHA!!!

    A new corporate low. Capitalism in rot mode. A shame that.

    0 8 Reply
  4. tolstoshev

    Mistakes were made, but not by me

    3 0 Reply
  5. Rich_B

    A "qualified mechanic" is NOT required to top-off the NOx reduction fluid -- sometimes called Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) (especially in the US) or AdBlue in Europe.

    17 0 Reply
    1. Neil Barnes Silver badge
      Reply Icon

      Though one might reasonably expect

      based on similar servicing requirements, that the only person able to tell the ECU that the canister has been refilled will be the 'qualified mechanic' equipped with the appropriate software. Only a cynic would suggest that said software will be either restricted to main/approved repair centres, and/or hideously expensive.

      One would think that an ECU which is capable of noting when filters and oil require changing by changes in the inputs to the system and the way the car is driven as well as simply by distance or time might also be capable of noting that said fluids and filters have been changed...

      4 2 Reply
      1. MrT
        Reply Icon

        Re: Though one might reasonably expect

        Or fit the Adblue tank with a float device like the fuel tank. If that's too bulky then an optical system such as is used in printer ink tanks to warn 'low' and 'empty'.

        2 0 Reply
        1. DavCrav
          Reply Icon

          Re: Though one might reasonably expect

          "Or fit the Adblue tank with a float device like the fuel tank. If that's too bulky then an optical system such as is used in printer ink tanks to warn 'low' and 'empty'."

          Yeah, because printer ink is a market where dodgy devices have never been installed to stop people using third-party suppliers.

          3 2 Reply
      2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge
        Reply Icon

        Re: Though one might reasonably expect

        One would think that an ECU which is capable of noting when filters and oil require changing by changes in the inputs to the system and the way the car is driven as well as simply by distance or time might also be capable of noting that said fluids and filters have been changed...

        It is. My (VW group) car has an AdBlue filler beside the fuel filler, a warning light on the dash, and a note in the handbook to put a minimum of 8litres in when the light comes on. It's no more complex than filling the screenwash.

        17 0 Reply
        1. Anonymous Coward
          Reply Icon
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Though one might reasonably expect

          It's no more complex than filling the screenwash.

          This is the Reg forums, well informed fact is NOT welcome here!

          Look at the two previous commentards hissing and spitting at each other in a fine display of mutual ignorance. And now you've spoilt it.

          10 1 Reply
        2. Neil Barnes Silver badge
          Reply Icon

          Re: Though one might reasonably expect

          Thanks, Phil. I had read elsewhere that the adblue refill was not a user-allowed function; apparently this is not the case.

          My own Fiat diesel predates this technology so I have no direct experience.

          1 0 Reply
          1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge
            Reply Icon

            Re: Though one might reasonably expect

            I had read elsewhere that the adblue refill was not a user-allowed function; apparently this is not the case.

            The dealer did say that when the light came on I could just call in & they'd do it for me, but the fluid is available in garages and the handbook certainly says it is user-possible.

            2 0 Reply
      3. I am not spartacus
        Reply Icon

        Re: Though one might reasonably expect

        ...the only person able to tell the ECU that the canister has been refilled will be the 'qualified mechanic' equipped with the appropriate software...

        I don't think anyone has to tell the ECU that the canister has been refilled (and, if you mean Engine Control Unit, as well you might, it wouldn't be the ECU anyway).

        The level in the AdBlue tank is monitored, and, once it runs dry, you get two (?) attempts to start the engine, and then it won't play ball any more. I think this, or some variant, is mandated in the US and may or may not be mandated in Europe (although it is probably still there, given that it has to be present for the US).

        0 0 Reply
  6. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    the only error is that I bought one of these

    I bought a 2015 model beetle TDI in late November 2014. I was impressed with the power and the fuel economy at the time, not to mention the fact I didn't have to add urea to it like most us diesels and I could get it with a manual transmission. I paid just over $28k for it. Then this scandal happed. the current Kelly blue book trade in price of the car is $14200. that's right. my 13 month old car with less than 9,000 miles is worth half of what I paid for it. Volkswagen still has not came up with a fix for it here in the US. the only thing I received was a $500 gift card good for any where and a $500 gift certificate to the VW parts department. I bet you can guess what they can do with those. it involves a arse, some lube and a whole lot of stuffing. well maybe not the lube.

    as far as I am concerned, screw VW and everyone of their employees that involved with this. bad apples may ass. I will never buy another VW product as long as I live. If they really wanted to make amends and foster some good will to loyal customers, then they should buy these cars back or let us trade it for another VW of equal value to what we paid for them originally minus whatever deprecation for the current mileage on the car.

    I am currently looking into the class actions that have been filed here in the US. I hate lawyers only slightly less than VW and I know that I would get jack squat once the lawyers take their cut., however it will make me happier to know that VW had to take it in the bum, just like they did to everyone that bought a TDI.

    5 8 Reply
    1. Paul Crawford Silver badge
      Reply Icon

      Re: the only error is that I bought one of these

      " I was impressed with the power and the fuel economy" ... "my 13 month old car with less than 9,000 miles is worth half of what I paid for it"

      Why don't you just keep the car for 5-10 years and get your money's worth out of it? Works for me (as a tight-fisted Aberdonian)

      21 1 Reply
      1. Anonymous Coward
        Reply Icon
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: the only error is that I bought one of these

        "Why don't you just keep the car for 5-10 years and get your money's worth out of it?"

        Buying new and selling after a year or two results in a tax on vanity.

        16 0 Reply
        1. a_yank_lurker
          Reply Icon

          Re: the only error is that I bought one of these

          or a tax on stupidity.

          1 2 Reply
      2. Anonymous Coward
        Reply Icon
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: the only error is that I bought one of these

        Unfortunately keeping it is the only choice I have, seeing it is only worth half of what I paid for it so trading it in is not a option. Not only that but any dealer in their right mind would not take one on trade.

        Another thing we have to worry about is that federal or state agencies not allowing them to be licensed and driven any longer because they wont pass emissions. So far the government has not done it yet, but it wont be long until they do. They are good at doing crap like that here in California because "only a few people would be unconvinced" and "think about the greater good for the environment or all the children that will die because a few cars wont pass CO2 smog checks". Which would make the car worthless as I could not sell it or drive it. so its basically 28k down the drain. I anyone who bought one of these has the right to be a little angry with them.

        1 0 Reply
        1. Marcus Fil
          Reply Icon

          Re: the only error is that I bought one of these

          Oh, but think of the bonfire it will make on your local VW dealership's lot. And all that lovely acrid black smoke it will give up - how many cars worth of emission cheating? How many bonfires before Washington tells VW to pay appropriate compensation or forget doing business in the US? Really guys - you should take a leaf out the French farmers' book - they know how to mount a good protest.

          0 0 Reply
    2. DavCrav
      Reply Icon

      Re: the only error is that I bought one of these

      "Then this scandal happed. the current Kelly blue book trade in price of the car is $14200. that's right. my 13 month old car with less than 9,000 miles is worth half of what I paid for it."

      What is the 13-month depreciation on other marques in the same range? For example, in the UK the VW Phaeton lost 60% of its value in the first year, and this was in 2014, before the emissions scandal. You need to look at Kelley Blue Book for Beetles in 2014 to get a comparison.

      "as far as I am concerned, screw VW and everyone of their employees that involved with this. bad apples may ass. I will never buy another VW product as long as I live. If they really wanted to make amends and foster some good will to loyal customers, then they should buy these cars back or let us trade it for another VW of equal value to what we paid for them originally minus whatever deprecation for the current mileage on the car."

      You don't sound much like a loyal customer to me, but anyway. So you won't buy another VW product for the rest of your life, but you still think that they should buy back hundreds of thousands of vehicles, at a cost of billions of dollars, presumably to scrap them, and then what? You still won't buy another one, so why would they bankrupt their firm because you have a car that does about 3% less mileage than you expected, based on ludicrous figures that nobody believes anyway?

      "however it will make me happier to know that VW had to take it in the bum, just like they did to everyone that bought a TDI."

      And to end, a bit of casual homophobia. Nice.

      8 2 Reply
      1. Anonymous Coward
        Reply Icon
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: the only error is that I bought one of these

        @DavCrav "...a bit of casual homophobia."

        Not really.

        That 'bum' phrase would be more about 'rape' (against a male, someone that lacks a lady-garden), leaving their bum as the only practical metaphorical 'rape' target. VW's metaphorical financial 'rape' of their customers.

        Casting this 'bum' phrase as 'casual homophobia' could be you casually assuming that all gay men are rapist...

        Neither assertion is true.

        What actually happened here is that you didn't interpret the 'bum' phrase correctly. You ignored the unwillingness aspect that makes it 'rape'.

        I trust that this helps to clarify your thinking.

        7 1 Reply
        1. DavCrav
          Reply Icon

          Re: the only error is that I bought one of these

          "Not really.

          That 'bum' phrase would be more about 'rape' (against a male, someone that lacks a lady-garden), leaving their bum as the only practical metaphorical 'rape' target. VW's metaphorical financial 'rape' of their customers.

          Casting this 'bum' phrase as 'casual homophobia' could be you casually assuming that all gay men are rapist...

          Neither assertion is true.

          What actually happened here is that you didn't interpret the 'bum' phrase correctly. You ignored the unwillingness aspect that makes it 'rape'.

          I trust that this helps to clarify your thinking."

          OK, so it's either casual homophobia or casual joking-about-rape. Great choice there! Glad you cleared up the alternative, equally deplorable meaning.

          7 5 Reply
      2. Anonymous Coward
        Reply Icon
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: the only error is that I bought one of these

        DavCrav,

        It was not meant to be "casual homophobia" or "equated to rape". it is a euphemism for being screwed over or being taken advantage of by someone. I live in California, one of the most liberal states in the US and I support gay rights. why is it that everyone gets offended at everything these days or tries to misconstrue everything it to something it is not? you misconstruing my comment about being screwed over by VW to homophobia is like the NRA claiming the AR-15 is being discriminated against because it is "Black". but I am sure you will equate that to racism as well.

        Also to answer your question about 13 month deprecation on a similar car. the 2015 Chevy Cruze Diesel is priced around 27k the current trade in in on that model is around 22k. which is typical of a 13 month old car with that mialage. there is not really a way to compare it to another VW beetle because all years with TDI diesels back to 2009, and all of them have lost significant value do to the scandal whether it is a diesel or not. contrary to your belief, I was a loyal VW customer. I have owned 3. my current Beetle TDI, 1998 Jetta, and my first car as a 1970 Super Beetle. what I was saying is they should make it right, but they are not even attempting to do that. Yes they should buy them back. its not about 3% less fuel mileage, its the fact they knew it would not pass smog and sold them anyway. they were deliberate in deceiving the customers and because of that they lost my trust and my business. If that's they way they do business, they deserve to go bankrupt, just like GM and Chrysler, granted VW didn't kill people over a 10 cent spring in an ignition switch like GM did but its the same principle. both companies knew what was right and what was wrong and chose to shaft the customer. by the way, there are about 500,000 effect cars, at roughly 28k each would be around 14billion. about half of what the proposed EPA fine. they should say "our fault, let use buy them back as part of the fine" that way the customer wins, the government gets its pound of flesh, VW get off easy. I am not asking for anything unreasonable. 28k minus the deprecation for mileage and were and tear is a fair deal, considering the shafting we got form VW.

        0 0 Reply
  7. Stork Silver badge

    I just hope someone takes VW to court for tax evasion - a lot of cars have falsely been classed as more economical in a number of countries, giving lower tax.

    1 3 Reply
    1. Anonymous Coward
      Reply Icon
      Anonymous Coward

      Surely the owners would be taken to court then, they are responsible for paying the road tax?

      1 0 Reply
      1. Anonymous Coward
        Reply Icon
        Anonymous Coward

        @AC

        It can't be the vehicle owners fault that these cars don't meet the required emissions to qualify for the lower tax, it can ONLY be VW's fault for cheating with the regulations. VW is at fault because they are the cheaters

        1 1 Reply
  8. glen waverley

    Nominative determinism?

    "... Audi technical boss Dr Ulrich Hackenberg ..."

    6 0 Reply
  9. sysconfig

    The affair is far from "largely concluded"

    Indeed. My Audi is affected. All I got so far from Audi is a letter confirming just that and essentially telling me to sit tight and wait until they have a plan.

    In the meantime, the resale value of the car has dropped (not that I don't like the car or want to sell right now, but I have paid more than I should have, given these revelations). Depending on how they intend to go about fixing the issue, the value may drop further (lower MPG, maybe lower BHP, possibly higher taxes based on re-assessed emissions).

    So it could be the case that keeping the car costs me more money than it did before, and selling it will lose me money too. Between a rock and a hard place.

    The affair cannot possibly be concluded before all owners of affected cars know what exactly VW/Audi plan to do to fix it (how and to which effect), and compensate owners one way or another.

    3 0 Reply
    1. DavCrav
      Reply Icon

      Re: The affair is far from "largely concluded"

      "In the meantime, the resale value of the car has dropped (not that I don't like the car or want to sell right now, but I have paid more than I should have, given these revelations). Depending on how they intend to go about fixing the issue, the value may drop further (lower MPG, maybe lower BHP, possibly higher taxes based on re-assessed emissions)."

      I'd be highly surprised if VW really do find a 'technical' fix for this that isn't to retrofit AdBlue or something similar. The reason the cheating was done was because they couldn't pass the tests truthfully, at least not with the R&D budget of VW, which is big. And notably neither could any other car company, with all their R&D budgets, which add together to make many-big. If many-big money couldn't solve this problem, why would shouting at R&D people and waving a stick make it work? This isn't Star Trek, and telling your Chief Engineer that you only have six hours so get it done doesn't work in the real world, especially since your Chief Engineer has just been fired.

      Now I am not sure how easy retrofitting AdBlue to VW engines actually is, but it has to be reasonably difficult and expensive. So expect the process to be long and slow.

      0 1 Reply
      1. Anonymous Coward
        Reply Icon
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: The affair is far from "largely concluded"

        "I'd be highly surprised if VW really do find a 'technical' fix for this that isn't to retrofit AdBlue or something similar."

        Given the integrated nature of modern power trains and the inflexible nature of modern chassis, I doubt a retrofit would be remotely feasible at a sensible price, unless the vehicles were designed to be set up with or without - which I doubt. It isn't like the holes with plugs on the dashboards for the features you don't have.

        1 0 Reply
      2. Anonymous Coward
        Reply Icon
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: The affair is far from "largely concluded"

        I'd be highly surprised if VW really do find a 'technical' fix for this that isn't to retrofit AdBlue or something similar.

        I wouldn't, it's not difficult.

        The problem they face is a tradeoff between CO2 and NOx emissions. To get good CO2 figures they need to burn lean, especially at low power outputs. Lean burn increases combustion chamber temperatures, and so promotes NOx production. All they need to do for lower NOx is increase fuelling at low power output to cool the combustion, that is what Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) does. A simple engine remap will fix that, perhaps with a tiny (< 1%) fuel consumption penalty.

        Increased fuelling, of course, increases CO2 output on the CO2 tests, and could potentially put the car in a different tax band. It may be that VW will be on the hook for this extra tax, especially in countries where there's an annual tax based on CO2 values, or if they are considered to have lied about the original tax band at purchase.

        It all comes back to the nonsensical idea of tax bands for CO2, and the unrealistic CO2 test cycle. If there's a tax band of, say, 111-120, then a CO2 increase from 119 to 120 is irrelevant, but 120 to 121, while equally insignificant, puts the car in a higher tax bracket, so there is huge pressure on the manufacturers not to cross the tax-band boundaries. The reality is that higher CO2 production corresponds to higher fuel consuption, and since over 60% of the pump price is already tax, any increase in CO2 already attacts higher tax, in a fully proportional way. There is no need for CO2 tax bands at all, it's a poiliticians solution to a "must be seen to do something" problem.

        1 0 Reply
        1. gryphon
          Reply Icon

          Re: The affair is far from "largely concluded"

          Current info from my SEAT dealer is that 1.2L and 2.0L will simply need a software fix which goes along with your surmise above.

          1.6L like mine will apparently need a software fix and a 'flow transformer' which is to improve the accuracy of the air mass sensor. Will take about an hour.

          0 0 Reply
        2. I am not spartacus
          Reply Icon

          Re: The affair is far from "largely concluded"

          "I wouldn't, it's not difficult...

          "All they need to do for lower NOx is increase fuelling at low power output to cool the combustion, that is what Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) does. A simple engine remap will fix that, perhaps with a tiny (< 1%) fuel consumption penalty.

          Well, I think that you are underestimating things slightly. For the medium-sized VW diesel engines, I believe that there are two categories; the larger cars have the 'AdBlue' system for NOx control, and the smaller ones, Exhaust Gas Recirculation.

          As far as I am aware (and it may just be that I am not sufficiently aware) the AdBlue cars don't have the EGR hardware, so being a bit more generous with the EGR would not be an option here, but it doesn't have to be. They would use more of the urea liquid, and it would need more topping up (so, in between service intervals, for those who have been able to stretch it to scheduled VW visits, so far). This shouldn't affect fuel consumption or CO2 materially.

          For the cars that use an EGR system currently, EGR would have to be used a lot more. This would be such a significant change to the calibration that they would really want to repeat much of the qualification testing (eg, environmental extremes, behaviour with poor quality fuel...even electromagnetic compatibility) but they'll probably find excuses not to do everything while taking long enough to actually do it.

          This will affect CO2, potentially,, and fuel consumption (and, even if it didn't, there will be howls of pain from drivers who claim that it does, even if they have only been taking any serious notice of consumption since the scandal broke). I'd estimate the potential fuel consumption impact at a bit more than your 1%, but still not gross.

          0 0 Reply
          1. Anonymous Coward
            Reply Icon
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: The affair is far from "largely concluded"

            For the cars that use an EGR system currently, EGR would have to be used a lot more.

            Not necessarily. The problem, as I said, is lean burn causing high temperatures. There are two ways to make the mixture richer so that it burns cooler:

            - add more fuel (which increases consumption and CO2), or

            - use EGR to replace air with exhaust gas to reduce the percentage of oxygen.

            Both change the fuel:air ratio (playing with variable valve timing is also an option, but that's an engine-design issue, not a bolt-on).

            It's a complex system, with lots of tradeoffs, the trick is hitting the sweet spot without going outside the limits. AdBlue is something of a last resort, when you give up on reducing the NOx levels at combustion and just cleanup afterwards.

            0 0 Reply
            1. GW7
              Reply Icon
              WTF?

              Re: The affair is far from "largely concluded"

              "add more fuel (which increases consumption and CO2)"

              While that may be possible on a petrol engine that has a throttle in the air intake, a modern diesel engine has no throttle (if we exclude swirl flaps), so injecting more fuel without EGR simply make it deliver more torque and go faster.

              EGR reduces efficiency and causes lots of particulates to be generated by a diesel engine. This sooty crud is absorbed by a very expensive filter, the DPF, which has to be periodically regenerated by blowing unburnt diesel down a hot exhaust. This process consumes a fair amount of fuel. Increasing EGR to reduce NOx will therefore clog up the DPF and the EGR system more frequently, increasing consumption, CO2 and repair bills. I don't want that happening to my car.

              Nor do I want to be coughing up nitric acid every time I drive on a busy road because some clever bastards thought they could get away with flogging millions of NOx belching cars that breach the "Euro 5" regulation by a huge factor (see BBC Panorama for proof).

              VW's fix seems to be trying to appear contrite and telling everyone a little bit of software will make it all OK, have some useless vouchers etc. while their lawyers are attempting to claim they haven't actually broken the law. If the latter is true, why the "service action" then? Very Weaselly bastards!

              0 0 Reply
  10. JeffyPoooh
    Pint

    Author conflating 'NOx scandal' with 'CO2 issue'

    "...tried to put the scandal behind them. An accompanying press release was headlined 'CO2 issue largely concluded.' "

    The author of this has obviously conflated 'the scandal', which is almost entirely about NOx, with a minor subsidiary 'CO2 issue', which is obviously about CO2.

    NOx .NE. CO2.

    Those at VW trying to communicate their point must be head-thumping-on-desk-ly frustrated with such confused reporting.

    3 0 Reply
    1. DavCrav
      Reply Icon

      Re: Author conflating 'NOx scandal' with 'CO2 issue'

      "Those at VW trying to communicate their point must be head-thumping-on-desk-ly frustrated with such confused reporting."

      I suspect those at VW trying to communicate their point must be annoyed with management over why they have two separate crises to deal with simultaneously. And do we think this is it for VW? Any more crises with reported numbers? I wouldn't bet on this being the end.

      0 1 Reply
  11. Swiss Anton

    VW don't understand software

    About a year ago I bought a golf, a 2.0L diesel. Its a lovely car apart from its woeful software, and I'm not just referring to the engine management system.

    I could list its many many shortcoming. Suffice to say that there are bugs, poor design, and some things that are just plain wrong. It is clear to me that those responsible for managing the software development process were clueless. Even without the emission scandal my next car would not be from the VW family.

    With ever increasing levels of software in cars, isn't it about time NCAP (and other similar organisations around the world) added in tests for the safety and usability of automotive software?

    4 0 Reply
    1. Anonymous Coward
      Reply Icon
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: VW don't understand software

      "isn't it about time NCAP (and other similar organisations around the world) added in tests for the safety and usability of automotive software?"

      Isn't it time the long-standing "product liability" laws in many parts of the world (including USA and EU) were actually enforced in a meaningful way?

      Sometimes software/design defects are just an irritant. E.g. yesterday I spent an afternoon helping a neighbour try to get his Vauxhall/Onstar in-car WiFi working. He'd spent hours trying, the OnStar help did their best but didn't help, etc. Eventually it turns out that the necessary configuration changes can only be made successfully with the car stationary (fair enough) and ignition on (ok, but if you're going to ignore the changes because the ignition's off, effing say so), a detail which is neither mentioned in the already out of date manual which shipped with the car, nor mentioned by the Onstar support team. Poor attention to detail, but not disastrous.

      Sometimes software/design defects are more significant, maybe even disastrous.

      Many countries have had "product liability" laws for many years. If the defect is significant, the product liability laws can be invoked. Why isn't the VW hiccup such a case?

      The $1bn+ penalty in the Toyota uncommanded acceleration case in the USA was for mismanagement of the recall, not a "product liability" penalty for getting it wrong in the first instance.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Product_liability

      http://betterembsw.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/a-case-study-of-toyota-unintended.html (not mine, belongs to Prof Koopman at CMU who was an expert witness in the court case of Toyota vs Bookout - worth a read).

      1 0 Reply
  12. Anonymous Coward
    WTF?

    Volkswagen has released the initial findings?

    "Volkswagen has released the initial findings of an ongoing internal review"

    Since when do the crooks get to investigate themselves?

    4 1 Reply
  13. Johan Bastiaansen

    edged out of the company

    "The executives that pushed for SCR were edged out of the company, and those in favor of NOX traps won out."

    Turning a technical problem into a political game, sure sign of a toxic company culture.

    1 0 Reply
  14. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    My garage needs painting

    I should call these guys, they seem to be experts in whitewashing.

    3 0 Reply

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