Re: Birth control is simple
This is true. The population will not grow forever.
Also, who the fuck is anyone to tell anyone whether they should OR shouldn't be using birth control?
Climate researchers - including one working for Wendy Schmidt, the campaigning wife of Google overlord Eric - have published research suggesting that there are other things apart from cutting CO2 emissions which would help to avoid disastrous rises in sea levels this century. According to Dr Claudia Tebaldi: "Without …
How about getting Congress to generate less hot air!
If we try to fight with natural powers, we should start with tasks that are more realistic. I vote for banning volcanoes as they are pretty much the only thing that blows enough soot (ok, ash, anyway...) in the athmosphere to have a measurable impact. When Mt. St. Helens blew up the earth cooled down half a degree.
Wait, did you say global warming?
I have simple solutions for all these problems. Can I have my Nobel Prize and seats on the IPCC now please?
Firstly we have CO2. Cutting emissions is too hard. However, if we carbonate all the tap water in the country, then we can use up lots of excess CO2 there. And who wouldn't want to bath or shower in fizzy water?
Next, methane. We all know that cows are the problem here. It's vegetarians that do the most farting. So all we have to do, is get cows to eat more steak. Hey Presto! Problem solved.
Now we've got sea level changes. Simple Archimedes will sort us out here. The problem is caused by whales. There's too many of them, and they're bloody enormous. Drop an enormous thing in water, water-level rises. So in reverse, if we eat more whales, the sea level will drop. Eureka! The Japanese are trying to save the world here, and we're stopping them. This also applies to sharks. And anyone swimming in the sea as well...
Right, that's that done. Now I'm off to solve cosmology. That should take some of the afternoon. Do you want me to do religion tomorrow, or should I go for why cats always fall butter side down?
Global warming is a long term thing. It doesn't mean that the next TWENTY years will be perceptibly hotter. It means that the coming centuries will be hotter. New England had a massive, late winter this year. That doesn't change the overall perception that there is global warming.
I am not buying in to AGW as being a primary (or even major) cause, though. I think that sustainability argues for controlling carbon-loading, I just don't buy into AGW causing global warming, yet!
Yes, there are some things that can be done for "low cost". The problem is that Governments WANT high cost items to justify their existence (laws, regulations, etc.). Government rarely does anything "on the cheap". It needs a big bureaucracy to feed off of and further its existence to get votes.
If things were good ideas and cheap on their own, people would already do them. They would make economic sense to do them. We would have switched LONG ago to nice compact fluorescent lights if they made sense, but they really don't so why bother. No, a big government needs to enact laws because it "knows better" to demand their use. Now we have all sorts of disposal problems with the mercury they contain, and government will need to emit dictates for them as well, continuing the cycle.
Some of this falls into the category: "be careful for what you ask for, you may just get it!".
It's not exactly "news", the effect of other factors has been known for a long time. But the broohaha over CO2 has swamped everything else, particularly the effect that carbon particulates have.
But if a relatively easy "fix" is available, then the panic is over and no more millions would be available for dubious research into anthropomorphic global warming and they'd have to find something else to cause a panic over. So don't expect this to make big headlines anytime soon.
Do you seriously think you can control the seas rising or falling? Ice ages or no Ice ages? Google may control many/most humans, but controlling the planet is a completely different thing. A true honest discussion should be made using Millenia as numbers not decades or years. One Millenia before we had a Mini-Ice age which kicked off the Dark ages, cold climate, crop failures, kicked off disease, plague, cholera, de-populating Europe by 60% over 300 years. Thankfully it has been warming since then. 7 Millenia ago there was a land bridge from Asia to Alaska. 15 Millenia ago Northern Europe and Northern America were covered in Ice. The Sahara used to be a grassland. 80% of Earth's history, we had no Ice. Redwood forests were plentiful in Alaska. So now we are so smart that we can control the weather??? If we could control it, Is colder really better, than warmer?? The tropics (between 23 degrees and equator) are the most life abundant areas on the planet, and the coldest areas have the least life. Or do we say that now is perfect, and all change would be bad. Unenlightened thought to the maximum. Foolish human clinging to control.
We need a King Canute moment. Someone to stand there and say "look, the damage is done, the climate is changing, we can't control it". Then we can stop arguing about whether what we are doing is making it worse.
Its arrogant beyond belief that we can stop climate change. There are so many factors that impact it only a fool or a zealot would make that claim. It doesn't matter whether climate change is wholly, partly, or not at all, caused by our actions. What matters is that we look to cope with the effects.
<long, very dense paragraph snipped>
In a word yes.
Ever looked at the history of the Ozone Hole?
The data at which CFC were first produced is known precisely. As is it's effect on the Ozone layer. As is the effect on CFC bans.
Human beings can bring about global atmospheric changes on a human time scale.
It's not a theory its a fact.
I think you better look again at the Ozone layer and CFCs. Especially data from this century. Also I suggest you look at the role of Dupont in the Montreal Protocol.
PS given the density of CFC how do you explain how it gets from the land masses of the northern hemisphere to the Antarctic Ozone Layer?
" from the land masses of the northern hemisphere to the Antarctic Ozone Layer?"
Perhaps you'd like to look at just where CFC's were use in their heyday.
At one time nearly every piece of plastic foam was made using a CFC blowing agent and every aerosol spray used them. They were cheap, non flammable and inert except if exposed to UV, when they broke down to release Cl radicals. Either you did not know this or have forgotten. They were ubiquitous.
As for "density" you forget their inter molecular bonding is close to non existent (low boiling points). You might like to look up "evaporation" and "Brownian motion."
Perhaps you might like to study a little more chemistry?
Yes the northern hemisphere. You know where the population is. Step away from wikipedia and study some atmospheric chemistry yourself and you might realise that the Chlorine in the upper stratosphere is assumed to come from CFCs (also assumed the majority of natural sources from volcanoes etc are "washed out" ). Ozone level is frequently a function of atmospheric dynamics and not simple atmospheric chemistry.
Low boiling points do not escape the density problem. If the CFC is broken down to chlorine before transportation to the upper atmosphere then it will get "washed out" in the same way volcanic Cl is removed (according to the current belief) . Brownian motion cannot escape convection currents and evaporation is for liquids (if it's got a low boiling point then we are discussing gases are we not?) Pehaps we need to revisit our understandings?
Fading asks the question: "PS given the density of CFC how do you explain how it gets from the land masses of the northern hemisphere to the Antarctic Ozone Layer?"
This is meant to make people doubt CFCs are responsible. What Fading HASNT told you is that CFCs have been directly measured in the atmosphere over Antarctica. That rather blows his insinuation that they can't get there out the water. Not only have they been measured, but like CO2, the measurement records show an increase in CFC levels over time.
**It's also well known how heavier-than-air molecules can spread through the atmosphere and cross hemispheres.
So either Fading knew this, or more likely he didn't know and he's just parroting what some CFC denial website told him. All his sciency-bluster is a charade. He doesn't understand this issue at an even basic level to justify his attempts to brainwash others.
OK, so climate change is more than just sea level rising but if those of us living in rich lowland cities like London and New York were to pay for the diversion of part of the River Congo's northern tributaries into the Chad basin it would kill two birds with one stone; a huge lake storing water that would otherwise be adding to sea level and a more fertile Sahel.
The more effective way to deal with climate change is to have policy makers in Washington DC that are willing to enact laws and regulations to reduce emissions. Currently we have too many obstructionists (mainly industry backed Republicans) in the Senate and House. Confront your policy maker and insist they take meaningful action. If they don't work to have them removed. Our future generations are at risk. Apathy, denial, and/or ignorance are poor excuses for inaction.
"The more effective way to deal with climate change is to have policy makers in Washington DC that are willing to enact laws and regulations to reduce emissions. Currently we have too many obstructionists (mainly industry backed Republicans) in the Senate and House."
1) Yep. Washington is going to tell China and India to reduce omissions, and they will obey! No doubt about it!
2) "Industry backed Republicans" are being "obstructionists"? Well then thank goodness for industry and thank gooodness for Republicans.
Well, If this climate warming will cause the oceans to rise flooding productive land it will be self correcting. The increased population has caused this rapid rise in global temperature which caused the flooding which causes the reduction in food which causes a reduction in the world population which causes a reduction in global warming pollutants which cause the temperature globally to return to normal. Now we (the earth and its population) are back at go and we the population can start all over again. Now all bets are off if the global warming is caused by something other than man.
Too bad reducing those other sources of warming will do nothing about the other huge problem caused by CO2: ocean acidification, which is wreaking serious havoc on marine ecosystems. And that is not just about losing pretty coral reefs, but may have serious economic impact on fishing and other seafood industry.
Which is not to say that reducing methane etc. should not be done. I'm all for it. But it is not a substitute.
"A volume about the size of a #2 pencil eraser of water provides as much energy as two 48-gallon drums of gasoline. That is 355,000 times the amount of energy per volume – five orders of magnitude." ( http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/New-LENR-Machine-is-the-Best-Yet.html ).
This phenomenon (LENR) has been confirmed in hundreds of published scientific papers: http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJtallyofcol.pdf
"Over 2 decades with over 100 experiments worldwide indicate LENR is real, much greater than chemical..." --Dennis M. Bushnell, Chief Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center
"Total replacement of fossil fuels for everything but synthetic organic chemistry." --Dr. Joseph M. Zawodny, NASA
By the way, here is a survey of some of the companies that are bringing LENR to commercialization: http://www.cleantechblog.com/2011/08/the-new-breed-of-energy-catalyzers-ready-for-commercialization.html
For those who still aren't convinced, here is a paper I wrote that contains some pretty convincing evidence: http://coldfusionnow.org/the-evidence-for-lenr/
Don't you read the press/listen to the news? CO2 is everything. Its the one universal measure so we can all focus on it.
Now I am off to eat my five a day as that will counteract the deep fried battered lard sandwich with extra mayo i had, after all thats another SINGLE POINT OF FOCUS so it must be true! Plus i got out of breath walking to Bobs Greasy Emporium and thats good for you too. Yay Science!
Lewis, this is not new information. The impact of GWGs are routinely published in units of CO2e, that's CO2 equivalent. This is a metric which takes account of the fact that there are other gasses (such as methane) that have a greater effect per unit. A lot of the time when you see figures published in terms of CO2 they're actually CO2e, the distinction isn't always made explicitly, even though it should be.
A sensible climate change strategy targets all emissions with high GWP, not just CO2. That's why we've taken action on refrigerants, for example, and as you rightly point out doing so is very cost effective. It sounds like you're trying to suggest that climate change mitigation currently focuses solely on CO2, which is not the case. This paper merely reinforces a widely known fact.
Ahhhh the GWP (global warming potential) what nice made up figures they are. Given as the increase in CO2 has led to a mere 0.8 degrees warming in the last 100 years (and not the 3 degrees predicted in the IPCC report the GWP are based one) then all GWP are out by a factor of 3.75 at least (not withstanding the poor assumptions used for each GWP) .
Given as there is no measured incease of many GWP gases in the atmosphere how can they "trap more heat" - just because they are being emitted does not mean they have an effect. Poor theory, poor data, poor science and poor us (and getting poorer if this nonsense is not reversed soon) .
I lack the true believer's assurance that opinions and consensus make for good science. I am not a "Carbonite" desperately counting carbon in the hopes of stemming catastrophe. And since the #1 greenhouse gas is (shudder) water vapor, it seems to be futile to be wrapped up in constraining a trace gas like CO2. Especially since the human contribution of CO2 is swamped by the outgassing of the planet's oceans.
I believe the culprit for climate change is that nearby variable star we rely upon, and our interactions with said fusion reactor. But what do I know? I am not funded by governments who would enjoy the power and revenue from meddling about, selling and buying credits.
"And since the #1 greenhouse gas is (shudder) water vapor, it seems to be futile to be wrapped up in constraining a trace gas like CO2"
Water vapor is the #1 greenhouse gas. CO2 is #2. That doesn't mean CO2 is futile. The science shows CO2 to be a significant factor.
"Especially since the human contribution of CO2 is swamped by the outgassing of the planet's oceans."
The planet's oceans absorb more CO2 than they emit. The rise of CO2 in the atmosphere is due to man.
"I believe the culprit for climate change is that nearby variable star we rely upon, and our interactions with said fusion reactor. But what do I know?"
Not enough to be drawing such unwise and arrogant conclusions.
Noms back again with the myths? Oceans out-gas CO2 as they warm and sequester CO2 as they cool. This is real science not "Climate science" .
Increasing CO2 had a brief correlation with temperature at the tail end of the last century. On all other occasions in the historic temperature record CO2 increase follows temperature increase (there's a bit of a lag). This is no longer the case hence no correlation = no causation QED. The majority of CO2 in the atmosphere is not linked to burning of fossil fuels (the isotope ratio proof is no such thing - too much wrong with it to be reliable) .
Given as the reduced solar activity is considered the cause of the flat lining temperatures - with help from unmeasured soot etc. (according to your jolly fellows at RC and SkS) who is being arrogant and unwise?
"Oceans out-gas CO2 as they warm and sequester CO2 as they cool. This is real science not "Climate science" ."
The oceans out-gas AND absorb all the time. The boundary between atmosphere and ocean is in constant flux. The net direction of flow is determined by temperature AND partial pressure. There some climate science for you.
"Increasing CO2 had a brief correlation with temperature at the tail end of the last century. On all other occasions in the historic temperature record CO2 increase follows temperature increase (there's a bit of a lag). This is no longer the case hence no correlation = no causation QED."
Only if you wrongly assume CO2 is the only thing affecting temperature. A mistake which real scientists (including climate scientists) don't make.
"The majority of CO2 in the atmosphere is not linked to burning of fossil fuels (the isotope ratio proof is no such thing - too much wrong with it to be reliable)"
About a quarter of CO2 in the atmosphere today (and rising) is due to human CO2 emissions over the last few centuries.
Ok Noms I concede the oceans as long as you give me the NET effect of ocean cooling is CO2 sequestion and the NET effect of Ocean warming is release of CO2? Given as Trenberth believes all his "missing heat" is in the oceans how does that affect your calculations?
From your buddies http://www.skepticalscience.com/Carbon-Dioxide-the-Dominant-Control-on-Global-Temperature-and-Sea-Level-Over-the-Last-40-Million-Years.html
No correlation equals not very dominant QED.
So how did you get 25% of 392 ppm is human emissions?
What a complete non-story, it is not like any of this is "new" information. The Kyoto Protocol already covers things like methane (definitely) and refrigerants (possibly?).
Things are expressed as CO2 equivalent (using global warming potential factors eg methane is 25 times more "potent" than CO2) to make things simpler to compare.
This is the internet. Its entire purpose is to distribute pornography, bad opinions and weird tricks discovered by housewives. This article has done the last and several commentards have done the second, so it was worthwhile.
(Paris, because we may as well complete the trifecta.)
dam building is holding back rising sea levels. there are over 70 dams planned for the amazon basin alone, china has been building massive dams and turkey is also building dams (much to the consternation of the arabs down stream!)..
"The new research suggests that, over the past 50 years, new dams and reservoirs have held back some 10,800 cubic kilometres of water, which would have been enough to raise global sea levels by about 30mm. In other words, the rises we have seen so far due to global warming might have been considerably larger if it were not for the huge numbers of dams and reservoirs built from the 1950s onwards."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/dams-deep-trouble-797711.html
What a depressing set of comments and upvotes/downvotes. The balance of commentards seems to be towards not believing in climate change, and encouraging the status quo. So we carry on burning limited resources instead of doing something useful with them, pumping out CO2, radiation from nuclear power stations, and shit in general. Hopefully the planet won't end up like Coruscant in my lifetime.
Catastrophic Anthropogenic climate change via CO2 emissions? Nope not enough evidence. Natural Climate change caused by many factors of which our understanding and reliable data is in a nascent stage - yep sign me up. The historic proxy record indicates the earths climate exists in two semi stable states - ice age and interglacial. The tipping points between the two are unknown (except that CO2 increases come after temperature increases). There is no indication of a thermageddon state even when CO2 levels have been higher than today. The AGW crowd insist the modern era is special yet evidence suggests (warming period of the 1930-40s) the only thing special is our ability to measure the earth from space.
The limited resources concept is also a myth. The stone age didn't end when we ran out of stone - the oil age won't end due to lack of oil. Have some faith in us :)