Samsung confirms Tizen-based mobes to debut this year

Has Android passed the tipping point? And for that matter can it?

Clearly in the Desktop market there came a point that for the overwhelming number of manufacturers Windows became the only choice. Anything else was to launch marginalised product that would never succeed commercially (Apple being the exception that proved the rule).

The question isn't so much would Samsung (or LG, HTC, etc.) like to leave Android - logic suggests they'd like to be masters of their own software stack and use it to differentiate. No the question for me is more COULD any of them leave. Sure they can mess around with alternates, just as HP tried to do but can they deliver the right user experience.

Somethings seem to favour Android's continued growth - Level of Google Services integration strikes me as the immediate killer "app" for Android (look at iOS Maps for a great example of denying yourself Google back end services) but others favour the option to break away to something like Tiser, the obvious ones being the ability to fork/bastardise Android/use Linux to quickly build your own "Googleless" environment and an ability to overlay Android Apps on to Google Free devices.

So, for Google the required strategy seems to be two fold (and I think it's essentially a one way bet):

1. Make Services compelling enough for Licencees use Android as the easy option

2. Where manufacturers don't use full fat Android, make linking/licencing to the Google Services Layer a very "commercial" (read costly) prospect for them.

In the final analysis, to really leave Google behind, Samsung would need to build what Apple have at best only succeeded in doing - building relevant service layers that don't require Google integration and that sounds like a very tall order.

Samsung might just have the will and market presence to make this leap, but I doubt anyone (cash rich Apple with their control ethos excepted) would have the stomach for it.