It costs $450 in marketing to make someone buy a $49 Nokia Lumia Every Windows phone Nokia sold in the US has been backed by a $450 slice of AT&T marketing cash, it's estimated. The mobile network threw its weight behind the handset maker's comeback device, the Lumia 900, with its biggest-ever advertising blitz for a phone: $150m, according to Ad Age. Nokia also spent $25m on Lumias for AT&T …
I have an HTC Radar, I only bought it a few months ago. I am furious about it not being able to be upgraded to Windows Phone 8 when it comes out. What that means for Microsoft is this: I will not buy another Windows Phone or recommend others to buy one as I feel totally ripped off.
I can only assume that there are many other Windows Phone users who feel the same as I do. Windows Phone 8 means MS starting all over again in the mobile market. The minuscule market share they have built up with Windows Phone 7.5 will evaporate before their eyes. Windows Phone, as far as I am concerned, deserves to completely fail in the marketplace because of this no upgrade possibility on all current handsets to Windows 8. If this was made clear to me before buying, I would never have switched to a Windows Phone.
Fool me once Microsoft and you've now lost me as a customer forever.
But none the less this is a real effect and it persists in people for an irrationally long time. I considered myself to have been 'done over' by Sony twice with one of their laptops: once when I needed a replacement AC charger and discovered it was just-slightly-proprietary-enough that I couldn't get a generic one and had to spend some ludicrous money on a Sony one; and then again when they wouldn't release a video driver (which had already been written for them by the graphics chip maker) to allow an OS upgrade, because they wanted you to buy a whole new PC.
This was about ten years ago. Number of Sony products I've bought since then ? None. Number of Sony products remaining in my house now ? None.
Before an iPhone 3G. I was able to upgrade its OS for about 2 years after getting it. With the Windows Phone that's not the case. All fair and well MS bringing out an updated OS, however, it should not mean EVERY single handset that they have their current 7.5 OS on becomes non-upgradeable within a few months of buying it. So it's F-off Microsoft when I renew my contract with T-Mobile here in Holland. It's certainly not way to build any sort of trust with current customers. They have already lost one potential upgrader to Windows Phone 8 and I suspect that I'm by no means alone.
It's not exactly the same thing with Android. Yes, most older and cheaper phones will not see ICS from either the phone manufacturer or the network, but if sold in enough numbers may be of interest to third party developers, see xda-developers.com and ICS on HTC Desire Z, a really old phone by now. If the user is not technical enough to root and upgrade themselves, many people can do it for them for a few bucks.
Compare this to upgrading WP7 to WP8. It will never be possible, for love or money.
The difference is, all Android 2.1+ devices can use all Android apps (I can't think of many at all that won't work).
However, Windows Phone 7.x users are in limbo, no Windows Phone 8 apps for them. They won't work.
Google have done a superb job of maintaining Android application compatibility, including the compatibility libraries for developers.
You're getting many of the features by upgrading to 7.8+, just not an 8.x version number.
The OS has changed too much for the current hardware, that's the harsh progress in the tech world, many Android phones will never get official updates past 2.3.x or will run like a dog if they do (HTC Sensation I'd rather had stayed on 2.3.x, the ICS update is like treacle at times, despite a factory reset and clean up).
Do you get free upgrades on old PCs? No. You should buy something on it's merits NOW, the tech moves too fast and is too unpredictable (especially phones). All this "I demand free OS upgrades to new major versions on my phones" just sounds like a whiney "I demand something for nothing even though it was never promised to me, because I should, because I shouldn't have to pay because I'M SPECIAL!" - it wasn't promised at sale therefore you have no right to it and shouldn't have expected it.
Go on, downvote me...
Well sure, buyers of Nokia's Lumia shouldn't have *demanded* updates on their smartphones. They did expect them though, but maybe they shouldn't have, according you?
Maybe. It's similar to how Microsoft shouldn't *expect* any return customers for their Windows Phone 8 devices either.
That's only fair I'd say.
iamafish,
"The OS has changed too much for the current hardware, that's the harsh progress in the tech world"
Not true at all. The phones they are selling today cannot be upgraded at all. The phones they sell the day before the WP8 release, cannot be upgraded. Microsoft set the requirements in WP7 as so restrictive that only products that many passed over several years ago will run it. How many PC companies sell a system that cannot run the next release that will be out in a few months? Sure you had the Intel asking Microsoft to drop the specs, but at least the OS would install, you just didn't get the full set of features. What we are talking about is that there is no chance of WP8 on a WP7 handset. I have seen laptops that are 7 years old running Windows 7 but yet a phone that isn't a year old cannot run WP8. Why did Microsoft not change the specs on WP7 hardware to support WP8? The answer is, the OS is set to use certain hardware only and they couldn't. They require a Qualcomm CPU and they put everything on one die and they use non-standard registers that other ARM chips don't support. So they couldn't change the hardware on WP7. WP7 was also never designed to support multiple cores.
> You're getting many of the features by upgrading to 7.8+, just not an 8.x version number.
No. The only feature announced is that 7.8 will have some of the UI changes such as variable sized icons (or whatever they are called) and some colour changes. It is still WP7 with all the limitations.
> The OS has changed too much for the current hardware,
WP8 is a completely different OS, it is based on a modularised version of NT converted to ARM rather than on CE (which split off a couple of decades ago).
The main reason that the current WP7 hardware won't support WP8 is that MS dictated that WP7 was restricted to certain hardware, such as single-core, 800x480, and only specific SoCs. This meant that it fell far behind what was available. Now dual-core is required as they try to catch up the last three years.
> that's the harsh progress in the tech world
MS let WP7 fall behind the progress, their spec was fixed 3 to 4 years ago (it was supposed to be released in 2009) and was not updated. This limited what could be produced as a phone. It is not 'progress's' fault, it is MicroSoft's for not making progress.
> You should buy something on it's merits NOW
Most probably did, which is why WP7 failed to gain market share. When WP8 arrives then it will be a complete restart (just like WM6.5 was killed by WP7), though it will apparently run WP7 apps. But it will be the first version of the new OS and it probably needs to get to SP2 before investing in it.
In aviation they say: "Never put a new engine in a new aircraft design".
But there was a third ecosystem (and a fourth for that matter).
Nokia still had a very significant slice of the market with Symbian. (N8s are everywhere.)
Killing Symbian made as much sense as Sega killing the Saturn when it was still bigger than some of the competition. Will customers trust that the replacement product won't get poleaxed in a similar manner?
As has proved to be the case.
"93 per cent of Lumia 900 owners say they would recommend them to their friends and 85 per cent would make a repeat purchase"
Here's hoping I'm not friends with one of the 8% here, who'd recommend a product to a friend that they don't intend to purchase themselves...
Actually I would recommend WinPho 7 to my Mum. It's easy to use, and runs very well on a £100 phone (Lumia 710), so it'd be my suggestion if she wanted a smartphone. For anyone that wants decent apps, it's rubbish.
Isn't that kind of the point though? 99% of the world's population aren't us. They're not early adopters or technophiles. They're people's mums, or dads, or aunties etc etc.
They don't want to root their phone. They don't want to install extra apps (beyond, maybe, Skype, facebook and twitter and the odd game or two). They especially don't want to clear application caches, or move programs to memory cards. They just want stuff to work. At the same time you don't want to spend Sunday afternoon on the phone to your mum explaining how to get the video of your kids off the phone and onto their computer.
That's what WP (and, to be fair, iOS) gives you. It's a phone that works as you want it to right out of the box. It's a smartphone that doesn't say "you need to be smart to use me".
If I can use an analogy; when I was young, I enjoyed tinkering with my car. I liked changing bits of it when they went wrong, or adding bits to make it more mine. These days, I just want to get in, turn the key and go somewhere. The car market has matured, and so have I. It's not a toy any more, it's a tool.
The phone market will undoubtedly go this way as well. WP isn't customisable, and doesn't have the option to fit an aftermarket metaphorical spoiler, or alloys. From that point of view, WP's problem may not be that it's old-fashioned, it may be that it's too far ahead of the curve.
Oh, and I'd recommend WP7 to someone, even though I wouldn't buy one, so I'm one of your 8%. I'll be waiting for WP8...
There's nothing unique to windows phone in any of the points you made about things working out of the box.
And this is just priceless - "it may be that it's too far ahead of the curve"
Seriously? I know you seem to view the lack of ability to customise as a bonus, but even non-tech people like to be able to do things like add a new ringtone, which every other phone has been able to do for a decade. Not so WP7 until 7.5. And with 7.5 you have to figure out how to edit your MP3 into a 40-second or less sub-1MB specialised rington file.
This is not a user-friendly tool, it's a clusterf*ck.
Difference is, RIM still has something of a core enterprise market that splash out big bucks, not on phones per se, but on "solutions". A bit like IBM sell solutions rather than computers.
So long as RIM make the work phones for a crapload of medium and large enterprises out there, they ain't going anywhere. They may however, disappear from the hands of chavs in favour of cheapo Androids with instant messenger clients.
Without checking the stats, I suspect that the BlackBerry OS is being used on way more PlayBooks than there are WinPhones in the world. What's more, BlackBerry OS is a genuine pleasure to use, far more intuitive and far less bizarre than WinPhone. I've used all the mobile OSes, and if I had to pick just one for usability and elegance, it would be PlayBook, hands-down. Since the 2.0 update, the selection of apps is good too... not as many as on iOS or Android, of course, but way more than I need.
That said, it's pretty clear that RIM really has just one more kick at the can. I'm told that existing PlayBooks will be upgradeable to the new OS 10 coming early next year, so that puts RIM one up on Microsoft, anyway...
You mean like use the toilet paper to mop up a little mess, the wellies to remain clean if the mess is a bit deeper, and the gear to climb up phone mast once the mess level rise significantly ?
By those standards, right now, Nokia is probably three quarters up the phone mast. Toilet paper and wellies surely have outlasted their usefulness for Nokia. Seems a bit like Nokia's leadership have dreamt about building Icarus wings for too long ... and while the mess levels are still rising, the parching Sun is melting those winglets Nokia hoped to take off with.
As a former member of the OS/2 development team I would like to point out that tens of million of copies of OS/2 were sold, which does not make it a real comparison to Windows Phone.
A better example might be the takeup of training courses by management at G4S, particularly the one about "Personal Integrity" and "Having a clue".
"Nokia is entitled to point to excellent customer satisfaction ratings from Lumia owners. 93 per cent of Lumia 900 owners say they would recommend them to their friends and 85 per cent would make a repeat purchase, according to Nielsen"
Is Nokia also entitled to point to the research showing that on a scale of 1~5 the likelyhood of recommending the Nokia Lumia 900 was "1" (not likely at all) by 42% of the survey.
Something fishy in the stats?
Let's hope this knocks a few months off the time it takes MS to give up on Win8 as a WP8 promo platform, to start handing back control to the users. Sadly they'll wait till the inevitable highly successful launch (they are nearly giving Win8 away to guarantee it) to face reality, when bazillions of Win8 sales turn into zero WP8 sales.
Still, we'll have a nice 'MS have to pay customers $200 to buy Win8 story' soon enough ;)
This has been some really bad management on Microsoft part as WP7 is still far from obsolete. Apps will still be developed for it for the foreseeable future as WP8 will run WP7 apps. So if devs target WP7 they get the whole market and as WP8 will start with no market share there is no point developing for that unless you really have to until it starts selling. For indie game devs XNA is unchanged between WP7 and WP8 so WP7 will continue to get some games.
The biggest mistake Microsoft made was having Windows in the phone name. It's just not a brand people like, they don't choose it, it comes on their PC's, they have to use it at work and if you are not technically literate it is easy for it to go wrong. Windows phone is nothing like Windows, but it is nice to use and has a smooth interface.
mbt2 said: "The biggest mistake Microsoft made was having Windows in the phone name."
I couldn't agree more. And Microsoft is doubling-down on the foolishness with Windows 8 and the Surface. "Windows 8 RT" is not Windows in any way. It doesn't run existing apps, doesn't support existing peripherals, and doesn't even do small-w windows.
This use of the Windows brand like some kind of magical sales-generating wand is not only deceitful, it's bad strategy. Ballmer and Sinofky are building the 'New Coke' of OSes here. And I, for one, look forward to the conflagration that will surely result.
Real Stockholm syndrome sufferers have Palm Pres and believe webOS has a future. As one such masochist, I am sufficiently in denial that I still prefer my Pre 3 over anything Lumia. Actually, isn't that part of Nokia's problem? A dated phone design with a really good UI is still nicer than gee-whiz hardware with a kind of sub-desktop UI.
150 million divided by 330,000 = $454
It sounds bad but we don't know if the whole budget has been spent. ATT is promoting itself as well as the Lumia. ATT would see this as a lost opportunity only if total subscriptions are disappointing.
To make any meaningful analysis we still need to know the length of the promotion and the growth/decline of the mobile customer base
I've had an HTC Trophy WP7 for about 15 months now and it's received three updates. I runs flawlessly and has not locked up on me ONCE in 15 months. It just keeps working like a clock. Apps galore....certainly more than I'll every be able to fully evaluate. When anyone asks me about the phone I give a demo of the capabilities of the people hub. Once they see the incredible power and ease of the people hub for everything from social connections to keeping track of business communications, nor further pitch is needed. It's simply the most simple to use and naturally powerful OS in the phone world today. I'll be upgrading to a new WP8 phone shorty after release.
Nokia's recent price cut on their flagship phones, betrays utter desperation. They're burning over a billion dollars a quarter, while still trying to establish a range.. which is about to be rendered obsolete, by the upcoming Windows Phone 8.
The need for Nokia to successfully build, market -- and most of all sell -- a new series of flagship phones, coming off the effective failure of the current generation, places Nokia's recovery strategy & entire business model at risk.
Is this the beginning of the end? Can such a company still survive?
Obviously someone to keep a careful eye on if you on the same train as them. As long as they are busy licking the window then not a problem. I would get a little nervous if they start fiddling with the carriage door though.
...by the name of WebOS. In many regards, it's like OS/2: technologically ahead of all the competitors, but badly supported by the owner, and finally left out in the cold.
The best user interface of all smartphones I saw (here, WebOS actually is far more advanced than OS/2, whose mighty Workplace Shell never got the polish it would have deserved), consistent and useable multitasking, root access without tricks, but also the lack of commercial apps and some not-so-nice bugs, which can only partly be remedied by homebrewn apps of a devoted, but diminishing community.
The parallels are obvious. The difference is that WebOS is being open-sourced and by this, a limited possibilty exists that it might get a second life.
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