'Apple will coast, and then decelerate' says Forrester CEO George Colony, the CEO of analyst firm Forrester says Apple's best days are behind it and suggests the company is headed for the kind of slump that befell Sony and Disney when their visionary leaders departed. In a blog post Colony uses a taxonomy from Max Weber's 1947 book The Theory of Social and Economic Organization which …
Cook is the principle reason that Apple is a moneymaking machine today. There is nobody in the industry better at production control and supply chain management...Jobs was a product guy..
Much as I agree that the comments should be treated sceptically I think you inadvertently make the same point: Jobs was responsible for dreaming up new, desirable products and Cook and others for their execution. Of course, that is exactly the kind of dramatic oversimplification that the media loves to speculate upon. Despite his many qualities Steve Jobs was part of a team of dedicated and competent people who were all needed to make the products a success.
Nokia used to be king of the supply chain and look at it now.
Probably the most sensible comment on here. Their current position is on top (whether people think they deserve it or not doesn't matter). History should make it obvious that few stay on top for very long. Hard to see how they could head to absolute oblivion anytime soon. Though even that is uncertain (for all firms).
Apple isn't successful because it is Apple. There aren't that many more macs around than before (or so it seems, at any rate).
I do, however, see iPads, iPhones (and formerly iPods) everywhere.
It seems to me that Apple succeeded wildly in these markets because they made elegant products that perform simply and well. They aren't especially cheap, but Apple has clearly demonstrated that price-sensitivity is not an overriding factor for such items.
Conversely, Nokia snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the mobile phone market precisely because their products became mediocre in the extreme. They were not at all user-friendly or elegant.
Exactly. There are a fair few people who aren't short of a bob or two, and will happily pay a premium to do away with all the rough edges, half-arsed feature implementations and confusing inconsistent interfaces. Some people want a complicated SLR with lots of manual control, many others just want a camera that takes good pictures and you don't have to fumble with a lens cap.
What do rough edges do to the user? Well, we've all seen that video of a man smashing his PC in a cubicle out of sheer frustration!
Baby-boomers form a large part of this market, and they aren't all skint.
@deadlockvictim:- "...There aren't that many more macs around than before (or so it seems, at any rate)..."
Probably not in the room(s) where you live & work.
Many homes have eschewed Windows machines for iMacs - iMac sales show this.
Many executives now use a MacBook - look in any First Class lounge, Starbucks etc. Again, reported MacBook sales would indicate this.
MacPro machines DO sell well: sure it might be a lower percentage of a greatly increased sales volume, but they're still selling - even if overdue for an upgrade to new Xeons.
The fact that ever-increasing sums are spent on iPhones and iPads appears to overshadow Mac sales shouldn't detract from the fact that Macs are selling increasingly well. There will inevitably be an increase due to the halo effect of iDevice sales, but these can often lag a year or so behind, but they will happen.
Apple have just made sure they have a few more baskets into which they can put their eggs.
No.
Apple has simply ceased to be a computer company.
They are a consumer electronics company. They're like the 80s division of Sony responsible for the Walkman.
What computers they do still sell are PCs pretending to be appliances. Although they are only PCs when it suits Apple marketing. Otherwise they're not PCs. Fanboys go happily go along with all of this.
Their actual PC numbers are miniscule both compared to Apple's own numbers as well as the rest of the PC industry.
Lets not forget that a decade of ipods being adopted left right and centre has left a legacy of almost anything electronic coming equiped with an ipod dock... which the ipad and iphone can connect to.
So you like your ipod touch and think, yeah why not, i'll get an iphone when i upgrade... you can get one free on a £35 per month contract, which many people pay anyway for the amount of minutes/texts/data that is included at that price point. Your shiney new phone will dock with your existing equipment... which is nice. You like the interface of your phone and you are in the market for a tablet, perhaps for yourself or your kids or a family member as a gift ... you go with what you know, and you buy an iPad. Sooner or later you come to need a new computer ... you've had good experience with Apple products so far, so why not, its a bit more expensive, but you trust it to be as good as your ipod, iphone, ipad...
Yes. The price points might come down. And eventually there might be some cheaper options from Apple. But in the last decade they've leveraged themselves a brilliant position in the market by becoming almost the "standard" in the way Photoshop, Hoover, Coke, Cellotape, etc have done.
The apple haters are always entertaining. They'll ignore any sort of logic to be able turn anything against apple.
They call people apple fanboys when they dedicate as much, if not more, energy hating apple.
Quite frankly they look sad but it feels good watching them waste their lives on on something so stupid.
I am not an Apple hater (I love my iPhone and iPad and my better half loves the MacBook Air I bought them). I can both respect what Apple does well and be critical when they get things wrong. Like most companies. And most consumers.
However, there are definitely some people who are shockingly defensive of Apple in a way I have not noticed for other companies. Fanboys is not an altogether incorrect description for some of these people. Their response is similar to that of a sports fan.
That's not to say there are not haters out there, but there are haters of all companies and I don't think the Apple haters are any greater in number. Though the Micro$oft critics seem to be less vocal these days. (I am using the $ to indicate the type of MS critic I am talking about, I don't usually do so).
What usually happens is someone else comes along with a "better" fashion and the old guard get knocked down a bit towards retirement.
So the real question is not can he keep Apple going, but who can usurp them?
I don't see MS doing that, though they are so entrenched in the desktop PC world they won't vanish in spite of turd-like OS/GUI choices, and Nokia, Sony, etc, seem beyond hope now.
Fashion. Oh, so that's why Jony Ive's output resembles that of Dieter Rams work for Braun from the 1950s? They look like they do because of a deliberate lack of arbitrary features that is the basis for
fashion. Jony Ive's stuff is fashionless, not (un)fashionable. Like a Technics 1210, A Maglite, or a well made pair of boots.
"Jony Ive's stuff is fashionless, not (un)fashionable. Like a Technics 1210, A Maglite, or a well made pair of boots."
The design may be but the desire to have one possibly isn't.
There are more people wearing trainers and playing their music at the back of the bus on a phone than there are wearing properly tailored boots as they spin up some vinyl on a classic turntable. Even in Shoreditch.
It's not impossible (though highly unlikely) that it could become a fashion faux pas to be seen with an Apple product and this would certainly harm their sales and their margins on those sales.
Apple do make very good phones and tablets but the margins they command is not down to this quality but to the brand and to the efficiency of their supply.
Ives continues the design, Cook continues the efficiency but Jobs is no longer around to maintain the brand.
It can be done without him but to assume that it will is to underestimate his importance.
People have been saying Apple is on the way down for many, many years now. How did that quote from Michael Dell go? If I were Apple, I'd sell the assets and give the money back to the shareholders.
People started panicing on Apple a week ago thinking guys like this might be right. The stock dropped 40 points. Apple released their financials yesterday, and the stock went up 50 points. Today.
As a shareholder, I'm sure glad they didn't listen to Mr. Dell back then, and I'm hoping they pay the same level of attention to Mr. Colony, here.
Apples strength lies in taking existing products, executing them slightly better than everyone else and charge a premium for the privilege.
Calling them magival and revolutionary also seems to help.
As long as they can keep doing that they're fine. Remember it's the general public that's responsible for their borrom line, not the so-called 'fanpersons'.
Perception is everything. And Apple are bloody good at it.
"….taking existing products, executing them slightly better than everyone else "
iOS looks old, dated and clunky compared to winphone 7.5.
WP requires far fewer interactions to achieve the same outcome, it’s clean and uncomplicated.
BUT because its windows, consumer prejudice takes over and prevent them from being objective. They buy an iPhone because their mates have one, because its deemed a ‘premium’ device (hardly when they are FREE on contracts), it can only be seen as ‘buying’ status.
iPhone design is now years old and never really looked good anyways. The buzz is over! iPhone is dead, we can see that with the PATHETIC attempt of the 4S, which was a 4 but with Siri.
Don't forget, create a big enough buzz and consumers will buy anything, and Apple have their consumers number.
‘Appleites’ love to bang on about how sad Apple haters are (toady), but the reality is, I don’t hate Apple, I hate sheep. The mindless who grab onto a buzz and bang on and on about it virtues. THAT is sad!
I don't think Microsoft's problem is the current Win phone interface. It's everything else around it. http://penny-arcade.com/2012/04/06 succulency says what I mean. iTunes and the app store, no matter how bad they suck... suck less then the other choices out there.
Also, people don't trust Microsoft... there are a myriad of reasons why, but the important one in the phone's/pads department is interface. Yes, Win7.5p is nice, but next year Win8p will look like something else, then the Win9p will look like something else then WinPhonX will look like something else. People don't trust Microsoft not to change the interface.
The only reason that Apple are doing so well is that the entire mainstream media and graphic designers seem to love giving them free advertising.
They always seem to use a Mac whenever they need a stock photo of someone using a computer and usually use an iPhone-like icon to denote a smart phone.
Still - the press are notoriously fickle so when the wind changes (and it will) their bubble will burst.
The only thing I have against apple is the price, (and that stupid mighty mouse cannot stand the thing). I'm all for varying platforms, and i have given the Mac OS a try. I just can't warrent paying £1000 for a laptop I can buy a similar spec version of for £440 and then install linux on.
Same with the iPhone. Its a good phone, I've got a second hand one to develop on, but I can't warrent the price point ot if, especially with the rate at which newer models come out and make your version depricated.
As for the company itself now, the best things work with the visionary and the guy who makes it work. This guy can make it work but he's no visionary. They'll go out and hire a load of enw "visionaries" to replace jobs but none of them will cut the mustard.
Apple will continue to sell well though, hipsters have already gotten addicted to the market (where they get hte money to buy all the stuff I don't know) and so long as the iPhone is seen as popular by teens they'll continue to sell out in each iteration.
iPads I'm still not sold on, I can see its benefits as a toy, I just can't put a serious use on them, possibly because of the kind of stuff I do on computers, I don't know. I just never found tablets to be anything more than a gimmick. If I ever did buy one it'd be a transformer prime.
I would really like Apple to release a "Mac General" os. Perhaps a partially featured OS disk which is sold for more than the normal upgrades, whcih you could install on a normal PC no problem.
But baby-boomers too. They have money. There are lots of them. They have less patience for things that don't work, and no inclination to roll up their sleeves and learn about what is under the bonnet.
It ain't hard to look at the demographics. We would all do well to do the same.
As Spike Milligan said to a station port on seeing a sign 'The 12.36 to Paddington has been cancelled due to unprecedented demand':
"The population has been getting bigger since 1846, what the fuck is unprecedented about it?"
>But baby-boomers too. They have money. There are lots of them. They have less patience for things that don't work, and no inclination to roll up their sleeves and learn about what is under the bonnet.
I'm a gen-Xer. I used to always build all my computers from parts. I'd (re)install Windows x every few months to make sure it was perfectly clean. I'm a coder professionally. I've been into computers since the Vic-20.
Now, after I've built at least 50 computers and (re)installed Windows countless times? Piss on that, I have better things to do. How many computers do you have to build and reinstall before you realize it's just the same old shit.
Hi Tom 79,
Sorry for my generalisations, I should have qualified those statements! I do indeed know 'Gen Xers' (a term maybe less common this side of the pond) who have worked with computers since the early seventies, and gen-xers who have in 5 years gone from PC illiterate to coding e-commerce sites.
By the way, regarding: "(re)install Windows x every few months to make sure it was perfectly clean. " Have you considered making an image of your fresh system, and of fresh system + favourite apps and settings? Or should I take your comment to mean you are already using Time Machine?
regards
Nah, after wanting to throw my MacBook Pro out of the window too many times in the last 7 months I've owned it I can't think of anything to like about it.
Slower to boot than windows, slower to wake from sleep than windows, more updates!!! (WTF - I was not expecting that!) and more system crashes.
Mac's are good because people who would not be prepared to pay 800 euro for a 17" windows laptop will pay 2500 euros for a 15" MacBook Pro. Because it's Apple. Then they act surprised that it's so much better than the awfulness they had before (which I advised against buying in the first place as I knew it was going to be awful and I was going to have to support it!)
Lion straight from the App store to installed. No messing, no nothing.
Windows straight from Sony / OEM Disc (depending on the machine), no messing, no nothing.
The MacBook Pro takes a little over a minute to boot. The Windows 7 machines take a little under a minute to having El Reg in the browser.
I wanted to like the Mac (You fdon't spend that kind of cash in the expectation that you are not going to like it now do you?), but after trying to like it for 9 months I've given up. It's a 1300 euro web browser (and even that isn't fun).
The POS HP I have to use in the office *is* slow as hell. But then that goes back to my point about comparing crap computers or decent ones.
Having not tried Linux I couldn't say...
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Not that you would ever believe someone who says something bad about Apple / good about Windows...
But, it's a mid 2011 Sandy Bridge MacBook Pro 13" i5 - installed with Snow Leopard and with the free upgrade voucher for the Apple Store for Lion (about a week or two after Lion was released). It was expanded from 4GB to 8GB and had a faster, bigger HDD fitted when I assumed the performance was from the slow, small HDD Apple fitted as standard. With the upgrades it was much faster, but still not a patch on the Windows machines I have.
The screen, whilst a terrible resolution is at least better per colour reproduction than the 4 year old machine. But not as good as the Sony.
Oh, and by faster wakiing up from sleep I mean usable. The screen comes on much faster with the Mac. Within a second or so. But you can't enter your password for another 10 seconds or so. The Windows machine is ready to go when the screen turns on. After about 2 or 3 seconds.
I'll go with the last window opened part - I do think that's quite cool.
I have to ask though - did you do A/B tests or put the machines next to each other? And were they are the same quality - or an el cheapo Windows machine (and I include expensive HP machines there too!) vs the Apple? These things make a difference.
"Same with the iPhone. Its a good phone, I've got a second hand one to develop on, but I can't warrent the price point ot if, especially with the rate at which newer models come out and make your version deprecated."
You miss the point - with the iPhone you do not need to upgrade as often - the 3GS is still supported (despite being 4+ years old) - I know 3 people with 3GSs (bought from new) and still very happy with them - paying for a SIM only contract and actually saving a lot of dosh.
On the other hand friends / colleagues with Android seeming need to upgrade every 12-18 months as their phone is no longer supported by the phone company or manufacturer.
"The only thing I have against apple is the price, (and that stupid mighty mouse cannot stand the thing)."
Except let's look at a 16gb iPad 2 vs a 16Gb Motorola Xoom 2 - yes they are BOTH £329.
Magic mouse - it's not a monopoly - use a Microsoft / Logitech / other one - I happen to love the Magic mouse - always found other mice uncomfortable to use but the Magic mouse is so 'light' to use it does not happen now.
"The only reason that Apple are doing so well is that the entire mainstream media and graphic designers seem to love giving them free advertising."
Really... the only reason? Advertising is one thing but if the product were crap people would not buy it - actually think Apple benefit hugely from word-of-mouth from 'happy' customers telling their friends / family and once you have used iOS / OS X - it makes the competition look pretty poor in comparison.
Sure Android is getting better but there are so many different versions / customisations - it's not what 'most' people want. Sure for the 're-ROM your toaster' brigade you want Android and for people who want a cheap 'smart' phone as an upgrade to their candy-bar (Nokia) style phone - but I'm pretty sure if you gave a Galaxy SII and an iPhone 4S to people - let them try them both for a month - most people would keep the iPhone.
Do Samsung offer a 30 day money back on their phones?
"I would really like Apple to release a "Mac General" os. Perhaps a partially featured OS disk which is sold for more than the normal upgrades, whcih you could install on a normal PC no problem."
Again you miss the point - it's about the hardware and software - OS X seems faster and more reliable than Windows ever did (on similar hardware) because it can be tuned and the developers know exactly what they are working on. I'm sure a lot of the problems with Windows are not Windows itself but the fact it has to run on a load of crappy hardware with iffy drivers etc.
Windows 7 is generally much better than previous versions - but when you compare to Lion (and the soon to the released Mountain Lion) it's still a far better experience - not for all - but for most people.
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