back to article Windows Phone to overtake iOS in 2015

Nokia's ever-expanding friendship with Microsoft means that come 2015, the Windows Phone platform will overtake Apple's iOS as the world's second most-favoured operating system after Android. That's according to research firm IHS iSuppli, which this week forecast a positive outlook for the Finnish phone giant. According to …

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Silver badge

Its possible, but what evidence...

What evidence are they using to make this prediction? The graphs are pretty and plausible but a few years back the graphs for S60 were also plausible and not at all the same shape as todays reality.

Nokia - and Microsoft if I'm honest - both need to wake up to being decidedly in nth place behind just about everyone else. They STILL haven't grasped that. News of a new Nokia phone has leaked, but by accident and with no real information - compare this to the leaks from Apple which are clearly deliberate. If you are top of the pile (as Nokia were in mobile and Microsoft in desk top 5 years ago) leaking information about your next wonderful product just loses you sales on your current product while people wait. If you are bottom of the pile then telling people how wonderful the thing you will release in a months time is might lose the current top of the pile sales while people wait for you.

The marketting departments in BOTH companies need to be sacked en-massse and be replaced with people that understand marketting.

Apple's iPhone STILL doesn't do most of the things a S60 mobile of 5 years ago did, certainly they are miles behind the S60 of today, yet Apple still advertise that 'if you don't have an iPhone you can't do...' EVEN when its a lie. As Goebels once said - if you tell a lie - even a massive lie - often enough people believe it.

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Trollface

Typical Deniers

Commentards on this article are typical deniers.

The model clearly shows that the Microsoft trend is that it's going to beat iOS by 2015, I don't understand why anyone would disagree with this when the evidence is right there!

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Downvoters, note the icon!

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Stop

We understand the premise; it's the conclusion we disagree with. Past performance is not an indication of future performance, and there is little on the horizon which suggests MS is going to take leaps forward in this sector in short to medium term.

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Anonymous Coward

Nothing against Android, MicroSoft or Apple, but I don't see it happening. No one, and I mean no one that I know has a winphone. Most people I interact with on a daily basis have Iphones or some phone with Android running. A few have the odds and ends like Blackberry or some generic OS like I'm running.... what one would typically find on any clam shell phone. The people who are using Iphones are not looking at any other phone. A few are talking about getting Androids in the future. Android users are totally happy with what they have. The odd men out such as myself are looking at Androids. WinPhone has never even been considered, even by the younger users.

I just don't see the winphone doing anything that will grab peoples attention. I don't like the way the interface is, and all the commercials and corporate backing will not convince me or others that we are using our phones wrong, and that MicroSoft can solve that problem. The idea of Windows 8 having the same interface as an option won't help. It won't work on a desktop, and unless they can make a dent in the tablet market, it just won't take.

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pedant

it stopped being MicroSoft years ago. get with the program

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As much as I hate crapple, this is never going to happen.

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Anonymous Coward

Seriously, thumbs down on my previous comment? Just because I or no one else I know is interested in a winphone, I can't see it making a great impact deserves to be voted down?

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Anonymous Coward

Relax, Taylor 1

Thumbs up or thumbs down are superficial. Objective truth and reality will stand on its own.

By not expressing interest or criticizing Windows phones (or even wrinkling your nose at the Metro UI), you have already offended the fanboys and astroturfers of Microsoft (*cough* wpcentral *cough*).

You are automatically shamed as a bum boy of Steve Jobs, or an Android geek. They're projecting their insecurities onto you because their product didn't sell.

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Coffee/keyboard

Windows Phone to overtake iOS in 2015 and other fairy tales

......and they all lived happily ever after.

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Silver badge

Wait for W8

There are many things that the 'report' fails to account for, including a new platform appearing, or the return of Maemo/Meego/Tizen as partial replacement of Android, or even real Linux with Ubuntu.

But what will mainly affect Windows Phone is W8 and 'Wait'.

The 'wait' part is the painful marketing that keeps saying 'wait for what will be coming soon' whenever a WP7 phone is released. With 7.0, it was 'wait for 7.1', then Mango. With the Nokia 800 and 710 released these are non-HD and single core (restricted by MS specs and lack of capability in WP7) so they talk about 'SuperPhone' that will be dual core and HD, just wait until the end of the year.

By the end of this year (or next) Windows 8 will be available, at least on x86. You may have to wait for W8 on ARM. As W8 will be on 'everything' then one can expect it on phones. WP7 is CE based but W8 (and WP8) should be full Windows. WP7 broke compatability with previous WM6.x and it can be expected that while WP8 may run WP7 apps somewhat the new W8 should make anything that was WP7 obsolete. It is also _very_ unlikely that any current WP7 phones or even any produced this year will be able to run W8, they simply aren't powerful enough.

The consequence is that anything WP7 will be obsolete by the end of this year, either actually (if WP8 actually arrives) or virtually (if there is no WP8 when W8 appears on tablets).

In the meantime WP7 is looking archaic being restricted to single core and there being no tablets, while Android gets quad core with performance and battery life advantages, and more different devices such as TV and Cameras (proper ones not just tiny phone cameras).

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Silver badge

I doubt at this rate Nokia will even be around in 2015 in never mind a major player.

MS were too late in the mobile phone OS race to get a decent product to market and nowt its either iOS if you want a premium brand or Android for the rest, although i believe Blackberry is still popular with teens possibly because of BBM.

I don't see Window 8 tablets making much difference either, the inability to run legacy apps and the requirement to only install apps from Microsoft app store will put off businesses and home users will either get the iPad3 which is due soon or one of the flood of cheap half decent tablets coming from China now that Android 4 source code has been released.

Microsoft should just get back to what they do best, over charging for office and making money from FOSS software through patent licensing.

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WTF?

Really?

"MS were too late in the mobile phone OS".

Really?

Pocket PC 2002 was to late in 2002? When did Android and iOS enter the race then? The previous millenium?

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Anonymous Coward

I think he meant...

"MS were too late in the 'not utterly shit mobile OS' market.

I always regretted buying a Pocket PC 2003 device instead of a Palm OS device. Perhaps if more of us hadn't made that mistake Palm would not have died.

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alternately

Alternately, Windows Phone will drag Nokia under. By 2015 Nokia will be a sad footnote in history and geeks will share stories about how cool the 9500 was.

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FAIL

Gartner, haha

Gartner predicted that windows mobile would dominate the mobile space by 2010...

Instead, windows mobile failed miserably and has been deprecated entirely in favour of a new but incompatible product.

Why do people put any stock whatsoever in what gartner say?

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Anonymous Coward

iSuppli are idiots

And spout incessant crap. Ignore them.

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FAIL

Erm... guys...

So, with Android at 58%, triple the share of anyone else, you reckon that Linux will be one of the big losers. I think I'll need a bit of an explanation there, I got lost.

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Silver badge

There's next to no market differenciation

All of the current platforms are more or less the same. You have a system, which is supposed to be more or less closed down (so the makers don't worry about actual security) you try to offset this by making a "market" or "store" to distribute software. However there always is a clear distinction between the programmer and the user, and the later is only presented with a fairly powerless shell.

Ohh and porting programs from older platforms is hard as there is next to no compatibility.

Now Microsoft would have had the chance to allow ARM-Windows 8 to run legacy Win32 and Win16 applications. That would have been a real killer-feature. Suddenly companies could use tablets and move their old legacy applications onto those. Think about it, if porting was possible, they most likely wouldn't port it to an app, but a browser based solution.

Nokia used to try to deviate a bit from what we have now with the N770 which essentially ran a cut-down version of Debian. You had repositories instead of App-Stores, and quite a bit of normal Linux software was ported. OpenVPN, which is very important for businesses, was available pretty much from day one, for example. As far as I can tell, this was the first time you had something very similar to a standard desktop operating system on a mobile device.

I guess much innovation could be started by unbundling software from hardware. Once you have a system in which you can install any operating system you like, you can use it for whatever you like. This way the PC developed from a single-user single-tasking machine in the 1980s, to something which would wipe out the workstation market. If PCs would only come with MS-DOS, that wouldn't have happened, but since you could run any OS on those there was progress.

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Anonymous Coward

Only fools believe this BS

Fool me once....

http://www.geekwire.com/2012/isupplis-2009-windows-mobile-prediction-shows-wrong-predictions

iSuppli is either filled with very incompetent 'researchers', or they're bribed by Microsoft. I think the truth lies somewhere in between the two.

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Anonymous Coward

Windows 8 will be a colossal failure of epic proportions

Why Microsoft 8 doesn’t matter (Daniel Eran Dilger)

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2011/09/15/why-microsoft-8-doesnt-matter/

Read the article. Read it again. And again.

Read the comment section. Read it again. And again.

If you still think Windows 8 will amount to anything, good luck. You'll need it.

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Flame

I've a Nokia.

My next phone won't be.

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Anonymous Coward

Oh well in that case!

"I've a Nokia. My next phone won't be."

Well I guess that they might as well declare bankruptcy right now, eh?

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Trollface

LOL

What were they smoking?

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Anonymous Coward

Having used both Android and WinPhone 7, I think this report is wrong.

I think that WinPhone will be outselling Android. WinPhone is actually a good product wheras Android is plain nasty.

In addition, handset vendors are having to pay for stolen patents, so the financial attraction of Android will decrease.

Plus, Google make very little money from Android and it must cost them a fortune so I reckon they will start winding down their investment which will mean slower releases etc.

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Well, not really.

According to documents filed in the Oracle vs Google case, Android is bringing in several billion dollars a year for Google.

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Alien

Walk, then run...

Windows Phone overtaking iOS? I'm pretty sure it has a few other obstacles first: like overtaking SymbianOS, Blackberry, BadaOS, and heck, even Windows Mobile is still selling at a higher percentage of the market. The last quarter numbers I saw, for the US market, put iOS at 37% for the quarter, Android at 54%, WinMo at 2.5%, and Windows Phone at 1.4%... pretty flat for the year.

Yes, Nokia has some better models than Nokia had before, given that they didn't have any Windows Phone models, and yet, told all their customers a year ago that everything they were selling was already obsolete. The flagship Lumia 900 does LTE, but other than that, it's inferior in every way to the iPhone, and pretty much every leading Android device. Maybe Windows Phone users don't care about spec. Everyone thinks iPhone users don't, but they actually do, and that's pretty true of other smartphone buyers, too.

Also, if you look at least quarter, while Windows 7 Phone was up by 0.1% for the quarter, neither Android nor iOS lost ground... their growth came from Windows Mobile, RIM, and the tiny presence of SymbianOS in the USA. Nokia may have SymbianOS customers as a natural place from which to loot market share in the UK and Europe, but otherwise, Windows Phone is going to have a very hard time dislodging iOS or Android users. Their campaign in the USA so far has been to try to attract dumb-phone buyers. That's failed.

Apple, in particular, has a weapon neither Microsoft nor Nokia are currently playing: the iPod Touch and the iPad. If they have wealthy parents, kids may get smartphones, but for most, that extra $20-$30/month is just too steep. But many kids get a taste of iOS, in particular, early on, via the iPad and, particularly, the iPod Touch. That means they're already well indoctrinated in iOS before they go out to buy their first phone. Some may have been exposed to Android on similar devices, but these are much less common right now. I suppose there are a few Zune still around at flea markets, but Microsoft never really did the Zune well enough to make it a lead-in to Windows Phone. Anyway, the natural choice of most will be iOS or Android, not Windows Phone.

I suspect these pundits are of the opinion that Windows 8 will be rapidly accepted, and that the Metro interface, inflicted on users starting sometime in 2012, will drive users to Windows Phones in subsequent years. But in fact, there's no automatic win for Metro. It's functional, if a little stupid, as a phone OS, but it's pointless on the desktop. Microsoft's panic to use the desktop to push the handheld could very well backfire, and deliver another Vista, or worse.

And nothing is likely to make Microsoft a "cool" choice. This is, after all, a consumer market. Consumers buy what's cool, what's trendy. That's iOS and Android. Microsoft is the thing you're trying to get away from with your mobile computing device.

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Linux

find what you do well

MS do have a chance. Probably not with "consumers" but with employees who don't have a choice or don't care about their phone.

What MS can do better than anyone else is integration with their own products. Better AD integration/setup, with MS chat/voice/communicator/email could be the clincher for those who can't afford iphone shiney and not interested in android functionality.

The issue is that phone functions are very quickly commoditised as apple have found with the iphone and (more so) with the tablets. With Android-makers such as Asus stepping up the "shiney" with the latest transformer tablet and the sony phones, even the ooh factor Apple had is becoming less of a differentiator.

MS's problem is that Apple isn't going away from the "cool" part of the market and Android has the rest. To start a new proprietary ecosystem (without quick FLOSS ports) will be difficult. Fortunately for MS, that may not be as important as Apple like to make out, in the same way that the desktop OS ecosystem wasn't important to phones, Apple's ecosystem may not be important to MS. Speaking from experience with webos, I would love to have mpeg2 streaming to the device from mythtv, but apart from that, the existing software is pretty much all I feel the need for. Yep, the webos/preware ecosystem is enough (for me).

So MS might be able to leverage corporate email to get into the phone market. Or they might just stuff up the execution. I can't see any interface making a difference. I would think the windows brand would be at best a distraction (it isn't really related to your apps) and at worst a liability (who wants to bring their work pc troubles home).

They question will be... do corporates want control of the phone, or would they rather employees deal with that and only allow windows desktops to connect to their networks? If MS get into voip deskphones (like cisco have) they there may be critical mass and infrastructure investment to give them a kickstart.

Let's see how important corporate email sync really is with fast-waking laptops and how much corporates want to pay to control employees' phones. Also with bluetooth, employees might opt to use their own tablet or laptop as a phone interface, masking the phones' lack of importance.

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What iSuppli said in 2009

"Despite intensifying competition and the loss of some high-profile licensees, the usage of Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Mobile operating system in smart phones will nearly triple from 2009 to 2013, allowing it to reclaim the No.-2 position in the global market, according to iSuppli Corp.

In 2013, 67.9 million smart phones will use the Windows Mobile operating system, up from 27.7 million in 2009. This will give Windows Mobile a 15.3 percent share of the global market in 2013, second only to the Symbian operating system, which will control 47.6 percent."

http://www.isuppli.com/mobile-and-wireless-communications/news/pages/reports-of-windows-mobiles-death-are-greatly-exaggerated.aspx

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Boffin

Numiricy & punditry

The minimum *uncompounded* margin of error of this prediction exceeds the projected difference by an order of magnitude. However even I can see that 'Windows phone may or may not overtake iOS in a few years' doesn't make such a good headline.

Now if someone were ever to put these pundits and their pundit-wallahs to the test, that would make for interesting numbers. We need the IT equivalent of politifact.com. Come on, let's burn some bridges.

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Thumb Down

Not....

I wonder if such a non-controversial article will get any responses.....

No, Windows Mobile will flop. Why? It is suicide for the phone manufacturers. They have to pay huge royalties to Microsoft. They are unable to alter the interface which put them in a commodity market against all of the other Windows Mobile OEMs (see PCs for an example).

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