Trump DOES get the credit. He made his position clear long before the h1b applications. Read some of the indian paper - they are all saying it's the "Trump Effect".
The number of H‑1B visas requested by Indian outsourcing companies has dropped drastically, but not for the reasons you might think. In 2016 the top seven Indian firms filed only 9,356 new H‑1B petitions to US immigration, a drop of 37 per cent, according to non-profit think tank the National Foundation for American Policy ( …
I do believe that Trump can get some credit for this. I don't buy that this year of all years, the number of H1B requests suddenly drops due to random factors.
The companies probably think that if they can make him declare victory early on, he'll forget all about making the reforms he intended.
> those 70,000 workers who would have been in your country...
There are still far more applicants for H-1B visas than actual visas issued. Last year there were 230,000 applications, but only 85,000 places. (The total number of visas granted ends up around twice that, because of various loopholes; but there's still no shortage of demand.)
That's a fairly simplistic and somewhat indoctrinated conclusion.
As another mentioned, due to the cap on the visa having been filled anyway, these 70,000 have essentially no impact on how many are ultimately in the US or not.
More importantly, your question alludes to a vacuous assessment of how many of the H-1B is most commonly used. If those jobs no longer have value to be done onshore, then the H-1B isn't going to be brought here in the first place--somewhat the point Stuart Anderson (who calls himself NFAP) is trying to make, that it was business conditions not Trump that caused the shift.
Now to those that still are coming to replace people onshore. In those abuses of the visa the rate at which the replacement worker is spending domestically is significantly less than the rate at which the replaced worker was. Additionally, the abuse has led to a laid off worker receiving unemployment in the short run and very likely spending less and paying less tax for the remainder of his/her career in many cases.
If the abusive use of the visa was stopped, we'd only need about 1/3 of the roles it was filling to remain onshore but in domestic hands to come out even or ahead.
Says you in your incredibly simplistic and completely wrong analysis.
There is no "abuse" of the program, because THE ENTIRE PROGRAM IS A FRAUD.
Companies are flat out lying when they say they can't find Americans. 99% of H1B's would have been filled by American workers.
The only truth to your analysis is that after 20 years, perhaps there might be less Americans to fill these roles, because most of the smart ones left IT years ago when they realized what was going down.
Ok, but when I was employed by Microsoft (on an H visa) Microsoft started developing facilities in Europe and Asia. The argument, as I understood it, was that since so they were getting so many people from there why waste time and money shipping them to the US?
So, ok, Tata is a great capitalist and he will exploit any opportunity he sees, but now, with many more companies following the MS example, maybe Tata Consulting is simply shifting its labor to the local market?
This can be analyzed much better should anyone wish to do so; there has been a big growth of intellectual property companies in India and other places. My hypothesis is that this is what is changing the H visa figures in the US.
Those figures will drop through the floor and the elected US government will claim responsibility until some time after everyone realizes what a disaster this is for the US.
Most of what you say is valid, but that's the way the world is moving.
India and China still have lower living costs than the USA or Europe but in most cases nowadays the physical location of the skilled worker is relatively unimportant.
The "disaster" has been coming for a long time and won't end until living costs and salaries are relatively level across the world. That's not going to happen any time soon but India and China are now becoming true developers and we should expect them to create most of the world's patents and copyrights as well as consume the resultant products.
PS I've worked in many places worldwide and have worked closely with outsourced developers for the last 15 years. Fortunately, I'm now living a quiet life in semi-retirement.
>and would prefer to stay at home.
Who wouldn't want to stay in a country where people critically injured in traffic accidents are often left to die by the side of the road because good samaritans are tortured by the police (usually suspected of causing the accident and India police often torture everyone to figure out what's going on) or required to pay bills if they take the injured to the hospital? Great place where yes people also still starve to death and people are lynched for eating beef (even though usually just on rumors) but I love when they lecture developed countries who actually can feed their people
The H-1B program has been used to fraudulently replace US workers with lower paid, less skilled workers. US workers displaced by this fraud are angry. But what is often overlooked is the imported workers are held in conditions that resemble indenture servitude or about half a step above outright slavery. They are often grossly underpaid particularly in high cost areas and are beholden to their employers/owners. The only ones who get any advantage are the PHBs whose bonus went up because of their false economy.
The article was not produced to tell us why H1B hires are trending lower.
Just that Trump cannot take credit, and because Trump.
I know more about their attitude towards Trump than I do about the titular subject of their report.
Is the trend a result of systemic changes? Or short term due to cyclical business activity?
Inquiring, active minds would like to know.
The point is that the H1-B VISA program was created for individuals with special skills which American Companies could EITHER NOT FIND HERE IN AMERICA NOR COULD THEY TRAIN SOMEONE HERE IN AMERICA....
--- please stop here and think for 10-30 seconds about what this means exactly, before you continue ---
There, now, for the past 20+ years companies have used H!B's fraudulently to get cheap IT labor, because American Institutions simply do not graduate enough JAVA developers, etc... \
...nor, IT SEEMS could these companies train stupid pathetic Americans to do highly technical JAVA programming, which only enlightened Indians can accomplish because of their high IQ and Masters Degrees.
(THIS WAS SARCASM for the 90% of you who aren't clear )
In other words, the rpogram and the companies hiring these folks are engaged in a scam.
WHY NOT JUST MAKE A LAW SAYING BRING OVER WHOEVER YOU WANT???
Oh that's right, there might be complaints from the many under-employed and under-paid Computer Science Degree folks and other Americans.
THAT IS THE POINT. AT NO TIME OVER THESE PAST 20 YEARS HAVE ANY BRILLIANT SCIENTISTS OR ENGINEERS COME TO AMERICA ON AN H1B. Perhaps at most 5 people. I CHALLENGE YOU TO PERSONALLY IDENTIFY MORE 5 ...FIVE THAT'S ALL, IDENTIFY 5 BRILLIANT H!B VISA HOLDERS WHO CAME HERE WITH A SKILL WHICH COULD NOT BE FOUND HERE IN AMERICA NOR COULD ANYONE EVER BE TRAINED TO DO.
you can't do it, because it's a load of BS. Quit lying to yourselves and others, and quit accepting lies from politicians.
That's why Trump was elected. I don't even care if he follows through, as long as he keeps at the very least telling the truth about pure BS like the H1B VISA program, I'll be happy. It's better than what we have gotten for the last 3 decades.
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