back to article Our Sun's been using facial scrub: No spots for two weeks

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory has spotted nothing for the last two weeks, which is unusual. By “nothing” we mean no Sunspots, the magnetic fluctuations that cause the Sun to form dark spots that produce flares of star-stuff that can rise millions of kilometres into space. Big ones could swallow the Earth, with room left …

Blame it on climate change !!! Either that or it's saving up for 'The Big One' !!!

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Coat

I saw lots of spots in both pictures

And suddenly I realised that I need to clean my screen.

The one with the small black spots, please. ------------->

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Scientific Papers Predict Cooling In Coming Decades

Good news.

Soon enough the on-going gradual drop in worldwide temperatures will be difficult for the IPCC to fudge.

Scientific Papers Predict Cooling In Coming Decades

I guess the Russians will get the blame - as usual.

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Re: Scientific Papers Predict Cooling In Coming Decades

That projection in figure 1 is absolutely comical. Did they get Donald Trump to draw it?

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Happy

Re: Scientific Papers Predict Cooling In Coming Decades

Notrickszone like "no spin zone" by the bullshitmountain man O'Reilly one has to assume.

Those seven Russian scientist don't deny climate change but guess it could all be about "Cosmic Ray Flux",

like this "Russian Scientists Dismiss CO2 Forcing, Predict Decades Of Cooling, Connect Cosmic Ray Flux To Climate".

Should we now tell the Chinese to burn more coal and tell people that if they cannot see their way to work to just get a GPS device, preferably one that works indoors too and remember to cough properly.

Just keep the air and the water clean and I am totally happy with the climate change and will dress accordingly.

Then there is of course the question about who is financing this Notrickszone to reveal all those great scientific stories like:

"Australian Psychologists Now Claim Climate Science Skeptics Are The True Moon-Landing Conspiracy Theorists".

"Dutch Expert: With Trump In Office, Now Safe To Expose The Many Myths Of Climate Alarmism".

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Solar Constant....is NOT constant....

Not only does Total Solar Insulation vary by distance of 3% by elipitcal Eart orbit, but radiation is a

function of square of distance, so orbit causes 10% TSI. What climaclownology ignores is variable

particle, solar rays, see "Lukewarm Lemmings and the Lysenko Larceny" at FauxScienceSlayer

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Re: Solar Constant....is NOT constant....

"Total Solar Insulation"

I don't think the sun needs insulating. It stays nice and warm as it is.

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Re: Solar Constant....is NOT constant....

Don't confuse Faux with facts, Doc ... Faux has ANECDOTES and TESTIMONIALS on his side!

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Re: Solar Constant....is NOT constant....

Uh-oh. Major maths fail. You don't square the percentage variation. You double it*, hence a 3% change in distance between perihelion and aphelion translated to a 6% change in total solar insolation (NB spelling!).

* Because (1 + x)^2 = 1 + 2 x + x^2, which for small x is near enough 1 + 2 x

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Re: Solar Constant....is NOT constant....

particle, solar rays, see blah, blah blah, output of fevered imagination with no basis in reality" at FauxScienceSlayer

Anyone who refers to himself in the 3rd person[1] is very unlikely to be a credible or authoritative source..

[1] See Donald, Trump.

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Re: Solar Constant....is NOT constant....

@ Jake.

Upped. Because you are so very correct.

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Re: Solar Constant....is NOT constant....

"Faux has ANECDOTES and TESTIMONIALS on his side!"

I'd like to know if Faux things the Dunning–Kruger effect is faux science.

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Predictions?

Where does the data for the rest of 2017 and all of 2018 come from?

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Re: Predictions?

Here's the page it comes from:

http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Solar/1/6

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Maunder Minimum, here we come :-)

Ready for serious global cooling, all y'all?

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Coat

Re: Maunder Minimum, here we come :-)

You beat me to it - that was exactly what I thought when I read the article.

Icon because I'm going to put mine on.

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Joke

The sun is going out? That's all we need. Gas and electric are expensive enough as it is!

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"The sun is going out?"

Dunno. Has he got his hat on?

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On the bright side... you won't need to buy sun tan lotion anytime soon.

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Coat

Sun

But didn't Sun get swallowed by Oracle a few years ago. That'd explain the slowdown between releases.

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Re: Sun

I thought it was the giant space-goat that ate it...

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I have been keeping tabs on sunspots for quite a while, and the last minimum was way deeper than I have ever seen in almost 40 years of observing. The current minimum looks set to get very deep as well. I know several amateur astronomers who wonder if it currently makes sense to invest in (expensive) H-alpha or Ca-K filters at this point in time. I look at it this way: If a new Maunder minimum is imminent, we will be the first to be able to observe that in great detail. If not, we can carry on observing interesting detail.

BTW, one small sunspot group was visible in my shots from yesterday in white light and Ca-K (393nm). Still very quiet though

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What am I going to blame random outages on now?

'Sunspots' has been my go-to excuse for years.

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Re: What am I going to blame random outages on now?

I use "stray cosmic ray(s)" ... works for almost everything (~85%) when you have a need to quiet the peanut gallery for an hour or so while you nip off down the pubhave a think ... "We're waiting on the results of the Perk Test" works for another ~15% ,,, you're on your own for the final ~1%; how do you think I make the big bucks?

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Re: What am I going to blame random outages on now?

'Sunspots' has been my go-to excuse for years.

I believe that "static discharges from clothing" is next on the Excuses Calendar. Or you could just jump to "Shifts in magnetic north".

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Re: What am I going to blame random outages on now?

Adverse tides.

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Re: What am I going to blame random outages on now?

Sporadic E always worked for me.

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A bit late

A sunspot rotated round on the 22nd.

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Joke

Just a reminder, everyone!

If someone advocates the use of solar energy...

... he is advocating the use of energy from an unshielded nuclear fusion reactor!

(note icon)

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Re: Just a reminder, everyone!

Nooo - I'd NEVER be so irresponsible to recommend that.

Any fule kno that all solar energy receptors should be shielded with at least 1 foot thick lead cover.

What really bothers me is what thickness of tinfoil hat do I need to be safe out there?

Take care on the beach, now.

>> thanks, mine's the one with the 5l drum of factor 95 sunscreen in the pocketses.

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Mushroom

2018 data

Is that a projection or do they know the future?

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Re: 2018 data

You mean the data with the e for "estimated" next to it? It's an estimate. As is all the data going back to September 2016.

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Re: 2018 data

They hopped a trip on the TARDIS.

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Gimp

Klytus, I'm bored.

When the earthquakes and volcanic eruptions start, and hot hail falls from the sky, there's only one person who can save us.

https://youtu.be/U51Pl0KMI3M?t=45s

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Pint

sunspots missing. News at 11.

The sun has received official notification from the office of the president of the united states that global warming is a liberal left myth. Officials at Sol are in emergency meetings to determine why in the universe some country elected this moron. Sunspots will resume normal process when the officers in charge of managing the venting systems are back at their desks.

/S

Kudo's Michael W. et al - I've a couple of barely passable telescopes (for the kids) but haven't time nor the location to get in any really nice telescopy work. I hope to in the future, from a space with less light pollution (yes, I'm more a star field kinda person)

Much could be said about 'climate change' here. All I'll note is that in the 3+ billion years this ball has been floating around dear old Sol, we've seen some pretty drastic climate changes. They will continue. W(he)(ea)ther or not there are sunspots.

<please note the sark tag!>

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Re: sunspots missing. News at 11.

"W(he)(ea)ther"

That's a dreadful spell of weather.

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Not As Usual

The article is totally oblivious how remarkably minimal the past maximum was. It started late, didn't get very high, and abated earlier than has been typical. Scientists are still trying to understand it. The Wikipedia article at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_maximum is rather helpful.

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Re: Not As Usual

The article is totally oblivious how remarkably minimal the past maximum was. It started late, didn't get very high, and abated earlier than has been typical. Scientists are still trying to understand it.

I'm sure they find it puzzling, but when you've only got 200 years of data on an 11-year cycle, that's less than only 18 cycles of data. For a star that has been shining for billions of years. They can't possibly know whether the 11-year cycle is really as predictable as they think, or that there aren't larger cycles that they don't know about.

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Re: Not As Usual

"when you've only got 200 years of data on an 11-year cycle, that's less than only 18 cycles of data"

Except we have proxy measurements of sunspots going back thousands of years, records of direct observations going back to 800BC or so, and proper observations with telescopes from the 1600s onwards. Obviously not quite up to the same level of detail as modern observations, but plenty to get an idea of general trends over far more than just 200 years.

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The article has a lot of things wrong with it. Firstly, as pointed out, a small sunspot appeared on 22nd March to end the spot free period. Secondly, sunspots are not counted individually, rather the leading figure is the number of spot groups and the second the total number of spots - for instance, if you have 4 spots in three groups the sunspot number will be 34. The sunspot number on the date shown in the photo was actually 227, which could be 27 spots in 20 groups or some other similar combination - there certainly are not 110 spots on that day.

Thirdly, the table shows smoothed sunspot numbers for each month based on a 13 month cycle - so the figure of 110 given for February 2014 is calculated based on the actual figures between February 2013 and February 2014. This is why figures after mid 2016 are shown as estimates and those in 2018 estimates based on the estimates.

There is nothing unusual in having a spotless sun at this point of the solar cycle, it has happened many times over the 24 11 year cycles since we started recording them - but this solar minimum, like its maximum, looks set to be much lower than average.

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Happy

Apparently..

..the last hardware driver patch took then.

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