back to article New UK trade deals would not compensate for loss of single market membership

The UK could lose out on a 4 per cent boost to gross domestic product (GDP) if it was no longer a member of the EU single market, with particular repercussions for the financial services industry, according to an influential think tank. The 4 per cent figure is based on the UK defaulting to membership of the World Trade …

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Really ....

The IFS are part of the gravy train that has kept the status quo for so long now. Along with government, major banks, chambers of commerce etc. They have all been blatantly pro remain.

They lost. get over it and stop the scaremongering.

Britain can and will be "great" again and all this doom and gloom ain't helping one bit.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Really ....

Lately i've noticed a lot of Brexiteers saying "don't talk down the economy".

As if closing our eyes and finding our happy thoughts will itself increase aggregate demand.

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Mushroom

Re: Really ....

"Britain can and will be "great" again..."

Would you like to explain how that can happen with an economy in the shitter, prices going up, and no-one in their right mind willing to trade with, and/or invest in the country?

The sooner people get their heads out of their asses, and realise that brexit is a horrible idea, the better.

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Re: Really ....

"The IFS are part of the gravy train that has kept the status quo for so long now. Along with government, major banks, chambers of commerce etc. They have all been blatantly pro remain.

They lost. get over it and stop the scaremongering.

Britain can and will be "great" again and all this doom and gloom ain't helping one bit."

Alright Nigel Farage pipe down.

Since we voted to leave the EU, what good has come of it? None of the idiots who wanted to leave are now around to actually see through what they wanted. Sterling is tanking against the Euro and the Dollar. Countless businesses etc have either halted their expansion plans or removed their interests from the UK since then. What's the result of this? Where is this promised land we've been told we would get? Has the NHS improved or be improved with the £350 million a week that we'd suddenly have free OHHHHHH Hold on that's not actually true was it? No, the NHS won't get £350 million a week because of us leaving the EU but it will get TTIP! Joy!

"But unemployment has fallen" - it'll always fall for as long as those horrible, exploitive zero hour contracts are in force regardless of the EU.

"But we've got trade contracts with 26 countries" WE ALREADY HAD THOSE TRADE CONTRACTS WITH THE EU!

But, I have every faith in the politicians we voted for to do the right thing. And that will be to ignore the little Englanders such as yourself and put the future and rights of the whole country first and not follow through with it. I'm not sure if you know this, or believe it - because obviously I'll be part of some gravy train illumati type deal - but that referrendum isn't legally binding. Still has to go through parliament, still has to go through the Lords, still has a long long long long way to go before it becomes reality.

Idiot.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Really ....

Just yow wander why brexiters didn't already invoked the exit clause and stated to deal from a so strong position. It looks May instead is waiting for a Le Pen strong result in France, and a weakened Merkel in Germany. Just, I can't see someone like Le Pen be kind with Britain.... she's on the line of a Napoleon and would like a Europe where France is dominating and Britain is a non influent island across La Manche. And in Germany may not go better...

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Really ....

"The sooner people get their heads out of their asses, and realise that brexit is a horrible idea, the better."

You lost. It's happening.

Get over it.

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Re: Really ....

Le Pen would love Brexit to go well for Britain, so she could follow afterwards.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Really ....

To trade with anyone in the EU, you have to agree the deal with the EU

We cannot renegociate a deal with just Germany for their cars

And to agree the deal, all the EU members need to agree, so if we want a special deal on Germany for their cars, the French can veto it as it is not in their car manufacturers favour.

also explains why it has taken Canada 7 years so far and still counting to try to get a trade deal with the EU...

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Happy

@Tom 64: Re: Really ....

Tom,

You are as well entitled to your thoughts as I am to mine.

I seem to recall that several large organisations that were basically saying 'if you lot vote to leave, our company will too...' which hasn't come to pass has it?

How many companies do you know of that see the positive side of the exit vote?

I don't know what the outcomes of the vote will be, I doubt you do with much certainty either eh?

Also the 'markets' seem to have rebounded from the 100% guaranteed calamity eh?

As to me 'getting my head out of my derriere' who gave you the right to metaphorically tell a signifcant percentage of fellow commentards that they are wrong and you are right?

What evidence do you have to support your bold claim, re the ecomony being in the shitter? Sure there are many elements that could be better, but I suspect that many of our French, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish, Bulgarian etc cousins wouldn't mind having their economies as 'in the shitter' as ours eh?

Ooi voting to remain would have suited my direct family and nascent business better than the exit vote.

If the vote had have been to remain I would have been fine with that, it's called democracy you know, chill out dude, the world will continue turning you know!

Regards,

Jay.

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Re: Really ....

" Britain can and will be "great" again …"

What exactly do you mean by that? "Great" as during the empire? Are you proposing to go back to subjugating other countries by force and looting them? Don't think that's going to be entirely successful. "Great" as during the periods of industrial strife in the 70s and 80s? (Did I get the dates right? Memory a bit hazy.)

Please tell me when, and why, the UK was "greater" than it is now! Who benefitted from this greater, greener and pleasanter land?

I'm really rather cheesed off with Brexiters' talk of "… will be great again" and "taking back control" which I feel amounts talking down the country and the people living and working in it.

The UK, in the EU, is a perfectly successful country, on the whole liked by other countries and people, and generally in control of its own affairs. (Just like other successful countries in the EU). But that position is now at risk due to what I perceive to be misinformation, downright lies, an electorate which possibly did not fully consider the issues at stake, and sheer jingoism. And I am really upset about that.

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Re: Really ....

Quote: 'Britain can and will be "great" again'

What, it's not now? What planet do you live on? Oh. Right. An alternate reality where we are a downtrodden folk, oppressed by the evil overlords from the continent and we must fight the oppression to become great again.

*eyeroll*

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Boffin

Re: Really ....

Unemployment down

Employment up

Productivity up (that's the big surprise)

FTSE 100 up

FTSE 250 up

Consumer spending up

The only thing that's gone wrong is all the predictions made by remainers.

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Windows

Re: Really ....

"The IFS are part of the gravy train that has kept the status quo for so long now. "

@djstardust

Do you have a specific criticism of the content of the report or methodology used in the report?

We have had the referendum. We are not fighting a campaign any more. We need to actually make things work now, and to do that, we need accurate evidence-based policy and research.

Does anyone anywhere have a source for such policy and research from those who championed the Leave vote? This is a genuine request for information not a troll.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Really ....

Racist attacks up

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Really ....

So as a trading nation the exchange rate of the Pound vs USD, Euro, Yen etc is not important?

Everything we import will get at least 10% more expensive in the coming months. Already happening with some goods from Japan. Sure, what we sell overseas gets more attractive but a how much of that trade relied upon something being imported in the first place.

With exchange rates against the Euro fast approaching 1:1 we are well and truly up shit creek without a paddle.

With businesses putting expansion and hiring on hold we are stuffed

Some businesses have already announced shifting of production to Europe because of the uncertanyu of exchange rates.

Sheesh, couch potato economists.

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shifting of production to Europe

That's been happening for years. Much cheaper labout available in eastern Europe.

I've worked in multiple currencies for the last 20 years. An exchange rate shift doesn't automatically make imported goods more expensive by the same percentage. You end up with supplier rebates or price adjustments from the overseas supplier so that they can keep market share.

For imports that are subsequently exported, we add value in some way (that's how profit is made), so the increased cost of raw materials has no impact on export price from the 3rd country's perspective.

Hiring on hold? Check the employment statistics.

On the plus side, every time your life goes badly in the next few years, you'll be able to blame people like me rather than taking personal responsibility.

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Re: Really ....

Oh honestly...

the economy is in a mess BECAUSE of the EU, or rather the use of the EU as a blanket excuse by government to send all our money abroad (Spanish tanks... what the hell is wrong with building BRITISH tanks in a BRITISH factory using BRITISH workers and BRITISH materials... that way we keep BRITISH tax payers money in BRITAIN and even better have an industry that can export and an army that can get new tanks and spares if we ever do need to go to war for real.... after all we have no British ships to go to Spain to get the parts ... remember the Argies... they lost the Falklands because they could neither make nor buy the exocets they needed to sink our task force)

The same idiots that think it is acceptable to buy foreign weapons are the same idiots that think we have to let our steel industry sink because of the same EU regs that seem to allow the Germans to keep theirs going. Much the same with cars, lorries, ships, coal, software and computers. (Strangely the banks somehow managed to get the help denied everyone else... despite those self same rules).

To be totally honest Europe is not to blame for the state of the UK, nor indeed for Brexit, it is our very own civil servants, traitors to a politically correct person.

However we should get out, stay out, use the money saved to bail out industry, we should build up our navy, airforce and army using ONLY British built products and we will once again have real employment in real factories making real goods... not paper shuffling tax collecting accountants and worse still leaching bankers taking wealth off the majority to accumulate it for the rich few

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Re: Really ....

This country is called "Great Britain" in order to differentiate it from "petite Bretagne", or Brittany as we call it.

As long as Britain is larger than Brittany, we'll always be Great Britain.

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Re: Really ....

"Does anyone anywhere have a source for such policy and research from those who championed the Leave vote? This is a genuine request for information not a troll."

eureferendum.com

They have a number of monographs covering various things in very simple form as well as the Flexible Exit plan (aka FLEXIT) which El Reg covered some while back.

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Re: @Tom 64: Really ....

"What evidence do you have to support your bold claim, re the ecomony being in the shitter? "

Have you visited xe.com for example in the last few weeks?

Compare the £ to against anything and you will see the HUGE drops.

Against to my countries currency, it reached the level when the terrorist attack happened in 2005.

I do remember the exact level, cause we swapped over more than 10K. to start our new life here.

You think the Bank of England changed the interest rate to be 0.25% was a coincident? The next thing that will start falling like hell is the housing market and that will hurt us badly!

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Re: Really ....

"… what the hell is wrong with building BRITISH tanks in a BRITISH factory using BRITISH workers and BRITISH materials... that way we keep BRITISH tax payers money in BRITAIN …"

1. That would create a monopoly which would increase the cost to the British taxpayer.

2. If you close your market to imports, other countries will close their market to your exports.

"… to let our steel industry sink because of the same EU regs that seem to allow the Germans to keep theirs going."

Ermm, it's not quite my field but I do seem to remember that the EU wanted to reduce steel imports from China, but Cameron vetoed that as he didn't want to upset the Chinese.

(Incidentally, the steel industry is quite complex. Tata is suffering in the UK, but their plants in NL seem to do quite well and are expanding. Possibly due to higher productivity, not sure.)

"… it is our very own civil servants, traitors to a politically correct person."

That is a very grave accusation to make against hundreds of thousands, even millions of people. Care to support it?

Incidentally, I remember the days before political correctness (i.e. the days of casual racism and discrimination based on class/accent/region - possibly discrimination against you, or me) and I know which I prefer. (Though I appreciate some folk take it too far, or use PC and health and safety as an excuse to hide behind when they're obstructive.)

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Re: Really ....

@ AMBxx ... "Employment up"

At a Bank of England Gov'nor press conference on 4th August (as reported in Guardian) "Following the Brexit vote, unemployment is expected to be higher than the Bank assumed in May. The unemployment rate is expected to have risen modestly in July (from 4.9% in the three months to May) and to continue rising to 5.4% next year and 5.6% in 2018.

At the press conference, the Bank governor said unemployment was likely to rise by 250,000 so it is right to take action now."

Statistics anyone?

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WTF?

Re: Really ....

"Britain can and will be "great" again..."

You can't live on stupid slogans based on historical fantasy. You do actually need a decent economy.

So when exactly was Britain "great" - do you have any particular date in mind?

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Re: Really ....

Ambxx:

You do know that brexit hasn't happened yet, don't you?

We are still in the EU.

The article is talking about the consequences of brexit on trade... The trade which carries on today because we are a member of the EU.

I do try not to consider the brexit supporters to be a bit thick, but it's hard sometimes.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Really ....

Yes, and what you should believe Le Pen would do afterwards? Try to establish a strong France position *against* all its neighbors, especially Germany and Britain. What city is most appealing in Europe beside London, for company HQs, and finance? Of course, Paris. She would lower taxes, and make it far more appealing than the idiotic 75% tax by Hollande. And France has and industry to protect.

Remember France is the country where foreign goods were destroyed at the borders. All nationalism work that way, don't believe someone like Le Pen would be nice to Britain and let it make much business in France and wherever France influence will be stronger.

Beware of such allies, it could be just a Ribbentrop-Molotov pact. And Germany sent Lenin to Moscow to help crush Russia in WWI, just it paid it very dearly with a long communist occupation of a large part of Germany after WWII... really, beware of your "allies"...

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Really ....

Really? Using British materials? So you're going to use taxpayers' money to recreate the British coal and iron ore industries, both of which no longer exist, in order to make British steel (oops - more taxpayers money there then). The reopening cost of a single pit is likely to exceed the cost of buying our entire annual coal supply from abroad.

Tell me, are you expecting private enterprise to valiantly jump in to invest in these traditionally loss-making industries? Or are you proposing nationalisation?

The problem with every Brexiteer I have ever talked to is that they don't think things through. Talk of "making Britain great again" have no grounding in reality when we have no coal or iron industries, and no steel industry worth speaking of. Our (foreign-owned) large car manufacturing plants either assemble components largely manufactured elsewhere or , if they do actually manufacture here, use imported raw materials to make those cars. If the economic realities of Brexit do indeed drive those companies out of the UK then the assets will be stripped and all that will be left to start British car making will be empty sheds. This applies just as much to Jaguar-Landrover as it does to Nissan et al. The only way to stop this would be large-scale seizure of assets; nationalisation by any other name.

And compared to aviation tanks are simple; we do not have the expertise to recreate our own military aviation programme in anything under ten years, even if we had unlimited funds. Most of the Britons with the requisite skills now work for European consortia and have no intention of returning to the UK unless their residential rights are revoked as a result of Brexit.

The only way your "all British" proposal would work would be to launch a massive programme of nationalisation, asset freezing, currency control and huge tax rises. Welcome to the Soviet Socialist Republic of England & Wales... (I'm assuming the Scots and N. Irish will have had enough sense to bail by then!).

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Really ....

As if closing our eyes and finding our happy thoughts will itself increase aggregate demand.

Of course it won't, but prancing around saying "look, it's failing, we told you so, hahahaha" will certainly *reduce* it.

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Re: but their plants in NL seem to do quite well .....

Actually due in no small part to having a continuous well-funded, well maintained rail network between them and their raw materials. Things get a lot more expensive when you have to offload your coal and iron to a ship, then reload it at the other end.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Really ....

with an economy in the shitter,

I don't know where you have your head, but perhaps you should extract it and take a look at the facts. The UK economy is in far, far better health than most of the eurozone countries. Brexit may be a challenge, but not half the challenge that coping with the disaster that is the EU economy if we stay in would be.

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Re: @Tom 64: Really ....

Compare the £ to against anything and you will see the HUGE drops.

It goes up and down fairly regularly against the dollar. 2:1 in 2009, 1.4:1 in 2009, that was a worse fall than recent weeks, and it came back.

Against the euro it's at about the same level now as 2013, same is true against the Yen. It's no big deal. Over the past many years I've sometimes made 10% on conversions that I couldn't avoid, sometimes lost 10%.

The next thing that will start falling like hell is the housing market and that will hurt us badly!

Why? Absolute house prices are really only a problem for people entering or leaving the market. If you sell a house for 200K and the one you want to buy is 200K the actual price doesn't matter, could be 100K or 300K. UK house prices are very overheated at the moment, a drop would be a good thing for people trying to enter the market.

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Re: Really ....

"The sooner people get their heads out of their asses, and realise that brexit is a horrible idea, the better."

Experience is a dear teacher but there are those who will learn at no other.

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Re: Really ....

"We cannot renegociate a deal with just Germany for their cars"

Germany will still be able to sell the UK cars (if we have the money). The terms on which they're sold here will depend on those set by the UK government.

The problem is negotiating the terms on which to sell our cars in the EU. Those terms will be set by the EU of which we won't be a member. What was that about control?

And it's been made quite clear that the existing terms won't be applied unless we agree to free movement of people. Wasn't free movement one of those things Brexiteers wanted to see the end of?

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Re: Really ....

'Please tell me when, and why, the UK was "greater" than it is now!'

Prior to 1956. That's more or less when we gave up.

You're right, of course. We'd have to invade Egypt again to regain control of the Suez canal and all sorts of other stuff. Is it so difficult for people to believe that clocks only run one way?

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Re: Really ....

Honestly, how do you expect politicians to put ANY of the money saved into anything until we have left and have that money available????

The politicians are in power to DO WHAT THE PEOPLE TELL THEM... that is DEMOCRACY any other behaviour is a modified dictatorship.

As to the 'best interests' of the country or the 'right thing' (in your opinion) can you PROVE which is best... in or out? There are arguments, powerful ones, on both sides. What is more, from my view point it is FAR more likely that we can do better outside than we ever have inside.

Mind, we could do with fixing a few things in general...

a) Use the nationlized banks to invest in British companies (rather than selling them back to the rich for a cut down price having used the tax payer to avoid any losses for those with billions and billions already)

b) Sort out tax and benefit, single flat tax on all income in the UK ... business or personal, no tax breaks no 'profit' discussions, just pure income... you spend 30 quid in topshop and they pay the same % tax as you paid when you earnt the 30 quid. Single flat benefit... you are in this country legally you get x per week... regardless of where you live or how many heads you have. Simple, easy to implement, quick to implement.

c) NO British tax payer spending abroad... none what so ever on anything

d) British aid in British goods and services

That might cause you some grief but this would sort the UK out

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Re: Really ....

What ROT!

Do you REALLY believe the Germans are going to stand idly by and watch their car industry lose out on billions in trade with the UK????

Get REAL

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Re: Really ....

@ AMBxx

What stats are you quoting here? I suspect it's Q2, ending only just after the vote, so you're looking at what happened almost entirely before the vote, not the consequences.

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Re: Really ....

"As long as Britain is larger than Brittany, we'll always be Great Britain."

What's the matter with you? Do you think facts enter into it?

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Re: Really ....

Cobblers

Britain in the EU was an insignificant boy bullied in the playground. We interpreted the rules against ourselves while everyone else bent them to better themselves....

I challenge you to find a single non German police car, council lorry or army truck in Germany

And just to prove a point go and find a single German police car, council lorry or army truck in France... you won't, the French have only French ones.

Similar in Italy

Come to the UK and try and find a single British built one! We have a massive car industry, we had a massive lorry, armaments and van industry... once.

Note how the French happily maintain a now illegal ban on British beef.... and still would burn our Lamb on the dockside if we bothered to send it. Of course the fact they have more BSE doesn't stop them sending their beef abroad does it?

I live in europe, its great, but I can assure you that it is just NOT POSSIBLE to find British food, drink, near impossible to find any other British products here... to say we benefit at all is a joke.

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Re: Really ....

Yes the pound against other currencies is important..... the lower the better, our products are then relatively cheaper. Once we start making power and digging up the raw materials here rather than importing them then the products get even cheaper.

Of course if we buy the electricity from France and the steel from Germany it doesn't help as much as if we dig coal up in Wales, burn it and smelt our own steel in the UK.

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Re: Really ....

"Do you REALLY believe the Germans are going to stand idly by and watch their car industry lose out on billions in trade with the UK????

Get REAL"

What would stop them? Do you have it in your head that the EU would set export tariffs? Of course they won't. A UK govt may or may not set import tariffs. But what we should be worrying about is the EU setting import tariffs against us. And we would have no say on that because we wouldn't be members.

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Re: Really ....

OH please... you really think that taking money from the UK tax payer and giving it to the Spanish is cheaper????

Consider the WIDER situation.

When the Spanish build the tanks we will find ourselves paying unemployment to the men who would build the tanks in the UK, the men who would generate the power, the men who would create the steel, the men who would build the machinery, maintain the factory building, make the paint.... etc etc etc etc etc

Then to top that off when someone else wants a tank they won't come to the (now non existent) British tank factory they will go to the Spanish one.... after all if the British won't buy a British tank why the hell would the Sudanese or anyone else..... why????

This is just the same with ALL other British products... why buy a Range Rover when the British police prefer BMW X7s? Why employ a British software engineer when the British government prefers to pay the French to employ an Indian (at a cost in excess of what the British engineer gets paid)

Just because the Daily Mail says Thatcher was a genius for destroying British industry does not mean she was!

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Really ....

The prediction didn't match what's actually happened, that's true. At least not yet.

According to reed recruiting new graduate and apprenticeship posts are down about 25% on what there were before the referendum. It looks like employers are still hiring, but only for posts which don't require long term investment - i.e. can be dumped again with relatively little loss. And when you think about it, why not? Until article 50 is triggered employers know that they have at least two years to reverse any hiring decisions they make now, so the final impact of brexit on the employment market isn't going to be apparent for a while to come. In the meantime we get fewer decent jobs out there, and more temping/zero hours positions - yay for brexit!

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Happy

@7layer: Re: @Tom 64: Really ....

7layer,

I am well aware of that, quite a few economists (can't remember specifics, can't check it now as I am current making wardrobes) have stated that on a trade weighted analysis, sterling has been over valued for a while.

As a fellow commentard has pointed out, a Y% shift in GBP/name_of_currency DOES NOT necessarily translate into a Y% change in End-user pricing, business and economics is a bit more complex (and occasionally subtle/counter-intuitive than that).

Methinks the BoE was to 'wave a flag' for positivity and optimism, which in principle I think is a good thing, I think the actual rate change will achieve less than not much however.

Also do you genuinely believe that as over a few months the pound has dropped by not significant amount that the whole country is completely cattle-trucked and we'll all be digging up random roots from public parks and eating grass by the end of the year?

What do you think of the various French and German Ministers who have made interesting and pragmatic statements of late, why would they do that I wonder?

Ooi my former career was Risk Consulting (NOT H&S!!), one of my favourite topics is the law of unintended consequences, we have an 'interesting' few years ahead of us!

The housing market is already absurdly cream-crackered, principally because homes are seen as an easy way to generate wealth (whilst actually stuffing the lives of many folk that aren't in the market yet), rather than being somewhere to live. Of course actually building more houses would solve that problem eh?

I think it is bonkers that on the salary I had when working in London 9 years ago (about 65k), I wouldn't be able to get a mortgage now for the modest 3 bedroom council house I grew up in in east london, now THAT'S F'ING CRAZY!!!

Chill out my friend, life gods on, and I GENUINELY wish you and your family well.

Kind regards,

Jay.

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Re: Really ....

"They have a number of monographs covering various things in very simple form as well as the Flexible Exit plan (aka FLEXIT) which El Reg covered some while back."

Several of the Leavers have now been given the task of coming up with actual plans in the real world where forms aren't even simple, let alone very simple. Let's see how they cope.

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Re: Really ....

"Consider the WIDER situation. When the Spanish build the tanks we will find ourselves paying unemployment to the men who would build the tanks in the UK, ..."

No, those men, and women, would be applying their talents in other industries making products the UK can export profitably (Cheddar cheese, Jaguar cars, Rycote microphone mounts, Tata Colorcoat prefinished steel, Rolls Royce jet engines, etc.). Some of them would be working, in the UK or overseas, as engineers, architects, artists and teachers. Others would be working in tourism, etc.

In my perception, long-term support of uncompetitive industries always hurts the taxpayer and, ultimately, the people in those industries. The UK has the potential to export many products and services, but some are more attractive to import. (And many will be imported and exported at the same time, in different flavours.)

Though I'm also unhappy about the way financial services, etc. have been overemphasised in recent decades. Unfortunately many in the UK don't seem to be interested in studying to become an engineer or technician/craftsperson. Hopefully that will change again.

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Anonymous Coward

Get over it

This has become distressingly overused by Brexiters.Some things are so gross one shouldn't 'get over' them. Hitler becomes German Chancellor 'Get over it'. Stalin launches Great Purge 'Get over it'. Japan attacks Pearl Harbor 'Get over it'. Just a few example to indicate how inane this response is.

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Anonymous Coward

Britai great again

Well, if we haven't the armed forces to biff people abroad we have to do it at home, don't we?

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Anonymous Coward

Who we

As Tonto memorably responded 'Who we?' Many Scots, for instance, would think differently.

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Re: Really ....

Given that the stock market is purely based on the "perceived" value of companies, wouldn't you agree that negative perception of a country by a bunch of moaning fuckers who can't stand a fair and legitimate democratic outcome is likely to have a material effect on said country.

Or are you going to pretend otherwise as it doesn't suit your argument.

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