A Novel Voting Approach
Take a coin. Heads you vote Leave, tails you vote Stay. Throw it in the air, and whichever way it lands you take that as your way to vote.
Either way we're all screwed.
The UK government would be likely to have an "emergency" budget shortly after next month's EU referendum if there is a "leave" vote. It would use that budget to give clarity on its priorities for changes to the tax regime. Its proposed changes to the corporate tax regime would be influenced by the eventual trading relationship …
I have it on reasonably good authority (that I won't disclose here) that the Labour Party has made a decision to look united on the EU question as much as possible in the hopes it shows them in a good light so they have a better chance at winning the next election.
Yes, that's right, Labour MP's who think we should leave the EU are keeping their gobs shut because them getting into power is more important to them than the most important referendum this country has had since the 70's (arguably even more so). Only a few mavericks like Kate Hoey are stepping out of line.
Reminds you of old Tony B.Liar doesn't it?
"and we need to make sure the Tories get kicked out before they can sell any more of our national assets "
I agree, re-nationalise everything and send us back to the 70's when everything was so good and perfect. The three day week, 25% inflation, constant blackouts, rolling stock that was over 50 years old, constant strikes and piss poor build quality...Ahh those were the days.
BTW I'm no Tory fan either.
rolling stock that was over 50 years old,
It's over 90 years old now.
I'm totally disillusioned by the whole thing. The willingness of people to try and manipulate the media using barefaced lies, this is the worst campaign phase of a democratic process that I've ever witnessed. After it's all finished (which it is already for me because I voted a week ago) I'd like to see these liars face criminal charges. Totally irresponsible, self-serving immoral lying bastards.
"third countries would be likely to offer equivalent terms to the UK standing on its own."
I can't believe people are letting leave get away with this one. We don't know that we will, they just hope that we will. There is no way that the UK alone is going to get better terms than it gets as part of the EU which has a lot more clout in these situations and if the UK is in a vulnerable position then other counties will exploit that weakness to get terms that benefit them.
I can't believe people are letting leave get away with this one
I can't believe the level of debate in general. Or indeed what it says about the state of politics when ministers are effectively calling each other liars individually while still expecting us to trust them collectively in government.
The only thing that is clear is that Cameron's attempt to deal with the Tory's equivalent of the Militant Tendency by winning a decisive referendum majority has backfired quite spectacularly. Even if he secures a majority at all he's toast and we'll be back at the ballot boxes on a regular basis until we deliver the right answer.
This is the crucial thing. Other EU countries that have been prevented by EU law from putting tariffs on UK exports will be able to do so and if they think it will protect their domestic producers then they will. Sunderland-built Nissans will become more expensive for French and Germans to buy: Renault, Peugeot and BMW will be very pleased about that. Sunderland's Nissan workers less so.
But the flip side of this is the opportunity for the UK, freed from the EU's sclerotic bureaucracy, to negotiate our own deals with non-EU countries and sell those Nissans to Brazil, Morocco etc.
The first scenario is definite. The second - well, I have no idea.
I believe the UK is in a relatively good position in Europe, having low corporate tax rates to attract companies to London. I would guess they even congratulated themselves on that fact when the rules were drawn (though they probably didn't see coming the Facebooks and Apples choosing Ireland with an even lower tax rate).
All in all, my guess is that it would be a net loss to leave the EU, because London would lose a lot of business from companies currently selling in Europe, which wouldn't be recovered from companies in Europe selling to the UK.
The UK is a substantial net importer from the EU. BMW will not be the slightest bit happy when the tariff on UK built Nissan exports results in a similar tariff on their beemer imports.
Woo-hoo! Trade war! That's bound to make us popular with everyone and have them all bending over backwards to sign agreements beneficial to the UK.
Sunderland-built Nissans will become more expensive for French and Germans to buy: Renault, Peugeot and BMW will be very pleased about that. Sunderland's Nissan workers less so.
How can that be when everyone* agrees that sterling will tank against the Euro, thus making foreign holidays more expensive, but British exports highly desirable?
Or is it simply more Orwellian doublethink?
*On the remain side..
This thread has the situation reversed: Britain is a major net importer from the EU and many other nations, hence Britain is a DESIRABLE trading partner and is in a stronger position to negotiate trade deals. Not to mention more Europeans work in Britain than the reverse, so they are dependent on our economy for their income.
Post Brexit, Britain will be £18 million a day better off and will only have one layer of government bureaucracy to support. With no UK contribution to prop up the EU the burden for other nations will increase. Imposing tariffs on the UK would be economic suicide for the Eurozone. The loss of exports to the UK would likely tip the Eurozone back into recession.
Tariffs would not be good for Britain either, but there would be an economic incentive for us to buy more British made cars. Likewise its easy enough for us to buy cars from anywhere in the world - my car was made in India and was notably cheaper than a European made car, irrespective of trade tariffs. Brits could easily grow accustomed to buying cheaper cars from outside the EU.
And if there are tariffs imposed on UK built Nissans, where do you think Nissan might build its next model?
That depends on where it sells most of it's cars. If the majority are sold in the UK, then it would make economic sense to stay here.
If the EU was mad enough to introduce tariffs the British government could subsidise car exports using the income made from taxing cars imported from the EU. Since we are a net importer of cars from the EU, Britain would make more income from tariffs than the EU.
My favourite.. we can close the borders if we vote out... no, no we can't
Of course any independent country can close it's borders if it so wishes. No post-Brexit government would go that far, but they will have the power to control all migration into the UK.
This idea is only slightly less delusional than the idea that Berlin and Paris will allow Europe financial affairs to be run from outside the EU.
"Berlin", "Paris" and "Frankfurt" will remain subservient to the EU so can't decide anything. The EU's financial affairs aren't run from London. If the EU's answer to Brexit is to issue more red tape it will make the EU even less attractive.
This is the same as the Scottish referendum where the outs kept saying "if we get independence we will have x,y,z" where in reality that was little more than a wish list of things that could possibly be achieved if everything went their way.
The outs say we can negotiate new trade agreements... yes I'm sure we can, but will they be better or worse than we have now?
My favourite.. we can close the borders if we vote out... no, no we can't, we can reduce the number of people we KNOW are here but we will increase the number coming illegally (you can get here from the continent in a pedalo if you are determined enough)
This idea is only slightly less delusional than the idea that Berlin and Paris will allow Europe financial affairs to be run from outside the Eu.
If we for one second assume that delusion to be in the realm of reality (very far fetched), yeah, sure, UK will be able to negotiate good terms with anyone. In fact, it can, in theory, negotiate better therms as the Eu cannot keep it on a short leash while it runs a "good terms or your assets get it" gambit.
The issue is that the idea of the London City after a Leave to be anything more than a glorified version of Virgin Islands corporate registry is exactly that - in the realm of "WTF are these guys smoking". Paris and Berlin will not allow that for a split second. That automatically removes any UK negotiating leverage in any trade negotiations.
When the City gets "nuked", some smaller hedge funds may survive (for a short time, then move). All larger financial entities including 99% of stock trade activity will move to Frankfurt within less than 2 years. With the relevant consequences for everything else (thank you Maggie for making the whole UK economy being wholly dependent on the City fortunes).
"The ECHR is not part of the EU." - James 51
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo Montoya
The reason I mentioned the ECJ is because I assumed (maybe wrongly? happy to be corrected on this) that would be the first place that a legal challenge against the new snoopers charter would be launched, as the ECJ is responsible for upholding EU law for all EU state members. It's possible that a Human Rights challenge could be launched in the ECHR, on the basis that parts of the Investigatory Powers Bill might be in breach of Article 5 and Article 8.
But, IANAL so I could be entirely wrong on the subject - again, happy to be corrected and always willing to learn stuff.
My post wasn't a direct response to yours. Tom_ and Julz also mentioned (indirectly) super national courts and the leave campaign often talks about those issues the ECHR handles as if it was part of the EU. They criticise decisions it has made and then say that leaving the EU would prevent the UK having to abide by those decisions so in this context, EU courts doesn’t always mean ECJ (even if it should).
Or we could look at our own Commonwealth and improve trade with them and also look at the rest of the world, Asia, Russia etc. Take a look at a GDP graph of the EU countries the majority of them are insignificant, besides their ability to supply cheap exploitable labour for the UK, Germany and France.
Russia is currently under sanctions because of their actions in the Ukraine including their highly probably involvement in the killing of hundreds of EU citizens:
Do you advocate ignoring this and normalising relations?
There's also nothing to stop UK companies selling products to commonwealth, Asian, BRIC etc etc countries.
I think this is why Putin will be pleased to see us quit.
We won't be able to afford to keep the sanctions, if we don't leave the 2 year negotiation period with an agreement. (And the period can only be extended with unanimous support, somewhat unlikely I think)
Anyone else reckon that all the old historical disagreements will come back to haunt us during this period?
My guess is Spain will block everything unless we give them Gibraltar.
Time to start learning Russian seriously, I think.
Law without democratic legitimacy is really lawlessness.
No, its totalitarianism.
If you think of government - all government - as a self legalising protection racket, it all becomes clear.
The point about democracy is that you dont need guns to pick a different Godfather, that's all.
The point about the EU, is that you do.
Unless you vote Brexit, and even then, its not clear whether the EU will let Britain go.
So do I but until we get it there are plenty of examples of the EU protecting the citizens of constituent countries from their governments, particularly over things like privacy protection and spying on law abiding citizens:
"Me? I want democracy."
I don't. Democracy sounds like a great idea, until you realise that it means everyone has an equal say, and then you look around you a realise how many complete fucking idiots there who get to vote.
That is the scariest thing about this referendum, and the only reason it is so close in the polls, there are so many people who completely misunderstand which issues relate to the EU and which don't or any of the reality of how international politics works, and don't read any further than newspaper headlines.
I have spoken to several people now who firmly believe that Syrian refugees coming to the UK is purely an EU related issue which will suddenly go away if we leave, and that the EU wants to ban all British made kettles and toasters and are therefore convinced that these are important reasons to vote leave.
Social media is also interesting, in a cursory glance over Facebook comment threads on the referendum you will see many clear and cogent arguments from those on the Remain side, some from those who are undecided or don't care and a mere handful from those on the Leave side. What you do see a lot however is those on the Leave side posting short one word comments of "Out!" and "Leave!".
The whole Leave campaign, both officially and unofficially seems to be largely comprised of shouting loudly and catchy headlines that are either exaggerated or fundamentally untrue.
Personally I'm in favour of staying in, however I'm also sure a clear, reasoned and sensible argument based on accurate factual statements could be made for leaving. I'm equally sure that no-one in the Leave campaign has done that yet.
"Democracy sounds like a great idea, until you realise that it means everyone has an equal say, and then you look around you a realise how many complete fucking idiots there who get to vote."
Obligatory Pratchett quote:
"Vimes had once discussed the Ephebian idea of ‘democracy’ with Carrot, and had been rather interested in the idea that everyone had a vote until he found out that while he, Vimes, would have a vote, there was no way in the rules that anyone could prevent Nobby Nobbs from having one as well. Vimes could see the flaw there straight away."
Biting the hand that feeds IT © 1998–2019