I'm really excited
To see how much harder Microsoft can fail at all those things. Microsoft has been a fascinating trsincrash for years with no sign of it slowing down, let alone reversal.
We are all perfectly happy with our existing high-end technologies and aren't planning to upgrade any time soon. That's according to Accenture, which carried out a survey of 28,000 people across 28 countries, and found "sluggish demand" for the most popular consumer electronics. Not that we've stopped buying them: "just" 48 …
"For people who just want to do stuff "good enough" is what we were after all along."
Unfortunately consumerism isn't really aimed at people who just need tools to get a job done, its aimed at mindless sheep who always want the latest New Shiny. And there are a motherload of those sorts of people in this planet who neither know (nor would probably give a rats arse if they did) the amount of enviromental damage done by endlessly buying new shit they don't need whether it be tech or the latest "designer" rags from Primark and throwing out the old.
Quote "The slowdown in the consumer technology market is irrefutable, serious and global,"
...and easily predictable, especially this last year.
There hasn't really been anything new to buy that has a real wide appeal, it's mostly just been minor improvements to things people already have, like Tablets, TVs, Mobile phones, Laptops etc. etc. People will already have those, and the new improvements are just not worth shelling out again for most people, especially if your current <device> still works fine.
Car technology really sucks and its getting worse. So many options, the integration is awful. I have a Renault, I can't turn off the radio without turning off the GPS, and the "mute" function on the radio also mutes the GPS. On another car I've played with you just can't turn off the radio/media player at all, and there's no mute button.
I really want my self-driving car, but I know its going to suck too.
OK, so Renault car technology sucks (a friend of mine who also has a Renault would whole-heartedly agree). I drive a VW-group car and really like the UI and the connectivity it offers (although it does have it's idiosyncrasies). Certainly none of the issues you raise you apply to it.
And no, I don't have a diesel-gate car.
My old 1GB laptop had more than enough memory, but got retired when I could no longer get replacements for all the worn out parts. The new one has minimum RAM: 2GB. Two thirds of it simply buffers some of the contents of a ridiculously fast SSD. I have to replace the desktop today. A Pi 2 only has 1GB, so I might end up using over half the RAM quite often.
The first RAM upgrade I did involved pushing 16x 16Kbit chips into all the empty sockets. I think there has been plenty of progress.
All markets mature and when they are mature most sales are for replacement kit. This is basic marketing 101; at some point all markets become mature markets. You can still make money in one but it is harder to do and often requires consumer brand loyalty to maintain marketshare.
When microwave ovens first became affordable, they sold very well as households jumped at the new technology. Then the market was saturated and the rush died. Permanently.
That's where we are at with many technologies. Existing laptop is good enough. Existing TV is good enough. Existing cell phone is good enough. Adding four side-facing cameras, fingerprint readers for all four fingers simultaneous, and making it one micron thick while reducing battery life by 50% doesn't entice us to buy a new one.
The point with the IoT "revolution" is that it's almost all incremental improvement. Nest and the like aren't fresh enough, conceptually, to cause an iPad-rush of purchasing.
Market personal anti-insect nanoclouds or clothing that safely administers stimulants/medication/intoxicants by suffusion through the skin and you'll get mega-rich.
Sherlock because I figured this all out in my mind-palace while on a 7% solution of cocaine, tripping out in the 1800s.
Yep, the survey pretty well nailed it - expense and privacy and not interesting enough.
Windows 10 is a prime example. Had it been a solid upgrade to 7 (and 8) I would have put it on my machines. But the data slupring aspects have turned me into an MS anti-marketer (telling friends and colleagues not to touch it with a bargepole).
Otherwise I would have paid, say, £50 a copy and rolled it out.
"But the data slupring aspects have turned me into an MS anti-marketer"
Windows 8 and Windows 10 have, for the first time ever, had me thinking very seriously about putting Mint on my big laptop and simply having a small, cheap box attached to a large storage box to hold my phone backups etc. that require Windows. So Microsoft's changes may result in an additional PC sale this year.
How about anti-personnel clouds that hovers 3 feet away from you when switched on; I would buy that!
Intoxicants can most easily be absorbed by breathing; I had a grandfather who worked in a distillery - he said that he didn't need to buy stuff to get drunk, but just go working above the still was enough.
I just carried out a quick poll of everyone in my immediate vicinity (22 people). All those on Android devices (12) have no intention of 'upgrading' in the foreseeable future, except one guy who said he could do with a better camera on his mobile eventually. Everyone using an iPhone (10), without exception, intends to upgrade at the earliest opportunity. I've no great love for Apple but they certainly have their marketing well-targeted and pretty well sorted for future sales.
Same here, old dual-core low-res Android, no intention to ever upgrade unless it literally turns to dust or something. Although it would be exceedingly simple to get me to buy a new one - just make a new Android with a traditional, full-sized large slide-out QWERTY (and a battery of no less than 5000mAh while we're at it)...
I agree, the same question here had remarkably similar results. The Apple users invariably have the latest iGadget, upgrading whenever the contract permits (or before in some cases). The Windows phone users put up with it because they are supplied by the business. The Android users are mostly Nexus, Samsung with a smattering of Moto and HTC. The age of the devices is up to 3 or 4 years and they are happy, compare that to the iGadgets and everything is less than 2 years old.
I have an HTC One M7, it still provides up to 2 days moderate use on a single charge, and will happily run for a full day with heavy use. The Moto Gs are the same, the principal comment is that the battery life is awesome. The Nexus users all tend to be geeks and have Rooted, recompiled, flashed and generally done loads of funky stuff with them. That is why they bought a Nexus and it keeps them happy.
I clearly dont fit into your demographic of an average Apple user. my 2013 i-Mac is fine for the foreseeable.... I will revisit this when I hit the upgrade wall which has just happened on my partners Macbook pro which is about 8 years old now, my iPhone 6+ is fine, I will look at the next release to see if there is anything compelling introduced, and then decide if I really need it... chances are I wont.
I drive an old Estate car, it isnt cool, it has an old and trusted Nokia CARK kit for bluetooth rather than something built in @ assembly, it does all I need, I dont get precious about throwing stuff in it and the depreciation is negligible..
I get so weary of people making assumptions about me based on the kit I own or the clothes I wear... or the car I drive, I replace gear as it suits me. Central heating can a timer and the rooms can have thermostatic valves, set correctly then there is no need to open an attack vector to your home through "cool" IOT connectivity - which in truth only offers another level of potential failure to a system.
As a wise man once told me... "Just because you can... It doesnt always mean that you should!" and thats how I view a lot of the tech garbage that companies produce.
I clearly dont fit into your demographic of an average Apple user
You clearly do.
my 2013 i-Mac is fine for the foreseeable.... I will revisit this when I hit the upgrade wall which has just happened on my partners Macbook pro which is about 8 years old now, my iPhone 6+ is fine, I will look at the next release to see if there is anything compelling introduced, and then decide if I really need it... chances are I wont.
Stop kidding yourself. You obviously have enough cash to stay on the Apple bandwagon and Apple's marketing will do its damnedest this autumn to convince you that the IPhone is compelling.
FWIW I have a second-hand MacBook Pro from 2010 and a 2006 MacMini, which has been artificially cut off from updates because Apple can't be arsed to recompile the video drivers for 64-bit.
"Everyone using an iPhone (10), without exception, intends to upgrade at the earliest opportunity."
In almost any other industry, if 12 people had product A and did not intend to replace it, and 10 had product B and said they did, one would assume that product B was inferior to product A and so was creating customer dissatisfaction.
That's what marketing can do for you. That, and I suspect that the use case for iPhones is sufficiently different from Android phones that the overlap is small. It would be interesting to see some research on and analysis of this.
"Everyone using an iPhone (10), without exception, intends to upgrade"
They buy things because they are made by apple what the things actually do is of secondary importance.
Apple could bring out an iButtplug bluetooth rectal thermometer at $200 and still sell millions of them.
If you had an idea for a killer must-have new mobile device, do you think you would be able to turn that idea into a reality and become a global success?
Or do you think that IP laws, supplier-deals and predatory pricing would be used to squash your fledgling company like a bug?
Where in the world do we have the most vibrant market with the most diverse mobile products available?
Sorry manufacturers, but the stuff you are peddling is not impressive enough compared to what we have and what you gave us before...
The step from a big box tv to a flat screen was enough to keep us buying TVs in the HD phase.... but now with 4k, i'm not even sure my eyes are 4k let alone ANY CONTENT ANY TIME SOON.
Tablets, smart phones ... both still have first time purchasers buying them, but only just after so long.
What are you offering me know ? A $100 light switch? (yeah, not sold on that one).... finger print scanner on my phone?? - really not sure i need that one. ..... dunno what else really... stopped listening.
What are you NOT offering..... Batteries suitable for today's tech...... Holographic projection..... Security....
The market for consumer technology maturing is actually a good thing. It's kind of like the PC market...my home desktop machine is a 7 year old maxed out workstation and I'm only now starting to think about replacing it. It was expensive when I bought it, but now I want the new virtualization extensions available in the latest Xeon family. I'm sure there are plenty of non power users running even older stuff. PC manufacturers hate this and point to the death of the industry. The reality is that end user technology is finally way more than everyone needs. Even Windows 10 runs much better on older kit that struggled to support Windows 7, probably due to the fact that Microsoft focused on slimming down the OS to make it run on phones and tablets.
It goes in cycles -- after the dotcom crash there was a retrenching of just about everything, and the focus was on "Web 2.0" and cloudy stuff. This laid the groundwork for the smartphone's introduction and the current social media/mobile/IoT bubble. Once that pops, and everyone really does stop buying every shiny new toy, companies will be forced to make tangible improvements to products in order to sell replacements. Just think, if someone like me who loves technology is running a 7 year old desktop, what consumer is going to care about incremental improvements to the tablet they use to read email or watch Netflix on?
Meanwhile, us legacy folk are just happy to pull back from this nonsense future of gadgets which are little more than toys.
Why strain to put intelligence into things that don't need it? Far better to put it into those that do - such as politicians, news reporters, whoever is behind the El Reg revamp plans, etc.
I've been wondering for some time in my posts just what does a new version of this of that give us, that we really need. In terms of straight functionality, it's been many years since there have been any really significant software innovations for a normal computer user. I pretty sure there's been nothing new in end user functionality since Windows/Office 95, that we really need, not so for serious professional products. With TVs, well, digital and Flat screen, but does 3D really add that much, especially as you have to ware special glasses. With Apple, my iPhone's (6s) still a bit behind the curve, but I can't think of anything I really need to add to it.
Can anyone actually suggest a truly innovative new game? Yes our interfaces are improving, but actual gaming scenarios, not really.
Sure there are things we could add to many consumer products, but most now are replace it when it breaks.
Perhaps we need our innovators to concentrate on making what we have safer, more efficient and cheaper for a while.
I think players like Microsoft have got this, if you can't innovate and sell new product, then convert it into a rental stream through the cloud. You then don't need to market anything, or for that matter invest much in research because who will really notice that a service hasn't changed in 20 years if it does what it needs to.
Any _useful_ IoT <gag> products will be high-volume, and by definition these things are limited-functionality due to UI & bandwidth limitations.
Thus a cheap microcontroller will do the job for just about any IoT application; the rest can be handled by "expensive" microcontrollers like the SMT32F series.
That means manufacturers can throw engineering resources at squeezing the functionality into the cheapest possible chip. The dream of selling millions of "computers" to replace lost sales in the PC business is a non-starter.
The consumer telematics* devices that succeed will be competing on price and reliability; but due to the hassle factor of changing out a network of devices there won't be anything like the fashion-driven repeat business of the PC world.
* sorry, can't stand typing that overhyped TLA any more
IoT just doesn't offer enough improvement/excitement/savings/etc in our lives to be interesting enough for everyone to want it.
Marketing droids are the only ones who see huge promise in it because they have to sell something and this is what they have got.
Who gives a crap if their fridge can reorder a week's worth of milk or veg? Especially if the thing is going to cost 30% more because it has a couple of sensors and a chip in it.
What people want are things that work reliably at doing what they are supposed to, without constant attention, mostly we have got those things at the moment so until the next big thing the manufacturers need to consolidate on what they have got.
I am into photography, now good DSLRs are offering fantastic quality and reliability I have paid enough for the camera bodies, now I look for legacy lenses to get the added interest and flexibility I want. I won't be looking for a new camera for years and the same goes for my laptop, PC, tablet et al.
...But it offers a massive landgrab opportunity for
a) high-tech companies who have run out of steam as customers realise they don't need a better phone/laptop/tablet/TV
b) low-tech companies who see an "amazing" opportunity to sell "sexy" versions of dull good like fridges, toilets and thermostats, that spaff out your Google password because they shipped it with a dodgy HTTPS implementation and didn't realise they actually have to maintain and all the products they ship.
It was 6 years since I last bought a laptop and it was decided this Xmas to get a new one (the old Dell was and still is fine after many upgrades both software and hardware).
Did I go Windows? Nope.
Did I go Mac? Nope.
Did I go Android hybrid? Nope.
Decided to get the new Dell 13 Chromebook with i3 CPU. Fabulous bit of it, just works out of the box. Super fast and good build quality too. Upgradable SSD as well! Very pleased.
If a new Phone appeared that charged in 5 minutes - wirelessly
And gave me really really fast connection to the internet, everywhere
And that I could think at or wiggle my eyes to make it do things, or something easier than what we have
And if a new Car appeared that could drive me home while I slept in the back
And avoided traffic brilliantly
And went off and parked itself after it dropped me off. And came and fetched me when I was done.
And a ton more things that just need better technology than we have right now. We were supposed to have jet packs and silver suits that adapted to any weather by now, what's holding things up?!
"And if a new Car appeared that could drive me home while I slept in the back
And avoided traffic brilliantly
And went off and parked itself after it dropped me off. And came and fetched me when I was done."
And locks you in itself after a fracas outside the pub after closing time and drives you to the nearest nick.
And drives itself back to the dealer when you fail to make the payments for a couple of months.
And displays video ads on the inside of the windscreen, specially tailored for you on the basis of the places it has driven you to recently.
Oh yes, so many things to get excited about.
Between Abedarts and the Travelling Dangleberries, we've a good test of the late Mr Adams rules on reactions to technologies...
“I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.”
- Douglas Adams, The Salmon of Doubt.
So is Abedart around thirty-five or is The travelling Dangleberries excessively pessimistic?
(Personally between greedy corporations and interfering government, I know which reality I see as more likely.)
And that I could think at or wiggle my eyes to make it do things, or something easier than what we have
"A loud clatter of gunk music flooded through the Heart of Gold cabin as Zaphod searched the sub-etha radio wave bands for news of himself. The machine was rather difficult to operate. For years radios had been operated by means of pressing buttons and turning dials; then as the technology became more sophisticated the controls were made touch-sensitive--you merely had to brush the panels with your fingers; now all you had to do was wave your hand in the general direction of the components and hope. It saved a lot of muscular expenditure, of course, but meant that you had to sit infuriatingly still if you wanted to keep listening to the same program. "
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