1 post • joined Friday 17th August 2007 14:16 GMT
Look at the track record
Before believing someone's prediction, it is as well to look at their track record. In January 2007 CRU made the following prediction "Our best estimate forecast of the global temperature anomaly for 2007 is 0.54+-0.16C, with a 95% confidence interval from 0.38C to 0.71C. This is a best estimate forecast for the warmest year on record, warmer than the hitherto warmest year, 1998 ( 0.52C). Thus there is a 60% probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the warmest year (1998, 0.52C) ." While we only have some 7 months of data from 2007, it looks like the CRU prediction will be wrong by a country mile. It looks like the actual value for the temperature anomaly for 2007 will be significantly less than the 0.38C of the lower 95% confidence interval. If true, it does not give one much confidence in their new predictions.
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