1 post • joined 17 Aug 2007
Look at the track record
Before believing someone's prediction, it is as well to look at their track record. In January 2007 CRU made the following prediction "Our best estimate forecast of the global temperature anomaly for 2007 is 0.54+-0.16C, with a 95% confidence interval from 0.38C to 0.71C. This is a best estimate forecast for the warmest year on record, warmer than the hitherto warmest year, 1998 ( 0.52C). Thus there is a 60% probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the warmest year (1998, 0.52C) ." While we only have some 7 months of data from 2007, it looks like the CRU prediction will be wrong by a country mile. It looks like the actual value for the temperature anomaly for 2007 will be significantly less than the 0.38C of the lower 95% confidence interval. If true, it does not give one much confidence in their new predictions.
- Leaked screenshots show next Windows kernel to be a perfect 10
- Amazon warming up 'cheapo web video' cannon to SINK Netflix
- Something for the Weekend, Sir? I need a password to BRAKE? What? No! STOP! Aaaargh!
- Episode 13 BOFH: WHERE did this 'fax-enabled' printer UPGRADE come from?
- Vulture at the Wheel Ford's B-Max: Fiesta-based runaround that goes THUNK