* Posts by chasm!

1 publicly visible post • joined 14 Aug 2013

Do you think spinning rust eats flash's dust? Join the hard drive daddies club

chasm!

Comsumers will stay with the rust for a LOOONG time

Current best consumer prices are in the range of $0.05/MB for large hard drives ($150 for 3 TB), and $0.80/MB for large SSDs ($200 for 250GB). Those numbers are not quite apples to apples comparisons, but I'd say that if a MacBook Pro cost 16 times what a Dell or Lenovo laptop cost, Apple would be out of business. SSDs are niche today (mostly for tablets and ultra high dollar PCs and servers). And of those, only the tablets can be considered normal consumer products.

In fact, I have only one SSD in my collection (256GB) and more than 200TB of spinning disk space (counting cloud space). I'm not likely to change over soon, and I wouldn't even have that SSD if there were any alternative. I admit it is 2-3 times faster, and easily 1/10 the weight. But with between 3 and 5 times the price of a comparable size 7mm drive and (my gut feel) half the expected lifetime, SSDs aren't there yet.

To take advantage of the metaphor, I would still invest in horse drawn vehicles in 1870 rather than automobiles. Henry Ford won't come along for another 40 years....

On the other hand, there are a lot of web servers where that 2x increase in speed is invaluable, and the cost of the drives is trivial compared to the box they go in. And the same applies to a top of the line gaming machine. So SSDs are certainly not going away either (like the 1870-1910 automobiles).