2 posts • joined 25 Jul 2012
FX - Strong AUD$ expected to drop with the end of the commodities boom
I take on board the "foreigner's pay more because they will" arguments, but I'd also consider FX rates.
The Aussie dollar has been riding high off the back of the commodities boom, only now falling away over the past few months, and is widely expected [weasel words; citation needed] to continue to drop as the commodities boom drops off too.
Have a look at 10Y FX rates to see how much of a high it's been on
Sony are going to be selling this console for a year or three before there's a hardware refresh ("PS/4 slim") and/or price drop. Increasing the price of a console during its lifetime is seen as a big no-no, so my guess is they're planning not for today's exchange rates, but with an eye to FX rates for the end of 2014 at the very earliest.
Now you're more than welcome to look at forward rates and the like, but I think it's a little mis-leading to price something that won't be on sale for another 6 months on today's rates when it's then got to sell for at that price for another year or two.
Sure they can take out forward rates and hedge against it, but if they priced it at parity today, and the 12 months from now the AUD plummets and the Australian PS/4 (& xbox etc) starts to look cheap, you know that the grey import market *into* the UK/US would start to take off...
"Coolest government statistician on Earth"??
Hey , back in the late 80s (ask yer parents kids) we took the ABS census and put it on CD-ROM with a software package to generate tables and choropleth maps so you could access the data with no more than a PC-AT (12MHz CPU, 640k RAM, 10Mb hard drive, EGA graphics, DOS 3.3 etc) and shutdown mainframes for quite a few people in the process, never mind the massive computational resources of an iOs device.
CDATA86 aka "SuperMap" by Space-Time Research if you want to look it up - yeah, glory days.
Anyway, the point was the ABS has always been a leader at this stuff. We did other countries later, but the ABS was the one that had the vision to take what we were building and welcome us (in relative terms) whereas the UK and US were a complete PITA.
And yeah, we did censuses from other years too and did all the alignment of data terms & geographic boundaries etc for you too (that's the "Time" part of "Space-Time Research"), so I'm sorry if you had to do all that sort of stuff yourself Richard, cos we did it all 25 years ago.
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