The carrot and the stick
You are spot on. You can smell their desperation.
Microsoft predicted the decline of the new PC market, where traditionally all their windows license sales came from. They knew it was being displaced by mobile, so someone took the strategic decision to let Blamer handle it for in the crucial decade all this was playing out. Hence they are in todays position of not only being nuked out of that market, but scrambling round to try to squeeze money from their existing PC users, because as we've just seen the number of new ones is declining dramatically. Forcing W10 down the throats of their current customers is about the only option.
In their minds they think they've tried the carrot and are just now turning to the stick. Users would disagree with the former.