Re: That about wraps it up for SpaceX
I think you're massively underestimating the barrier to entry for other new companies. For once, it IS rocket science. Any new entrant would have to do all the development, building and testing that SpaceX has already got out of the way, sort out their own launch facilities and hire a shitload of scientists and engineers just to get to a position significantly behind Musk. They'd still need a compelling reason for send-stuff-to-space customers to switch from a proven company, and SpaceX would still have lucrative NASA contracts until they run out.
It took a visionary billionaire to get his company to where it is today, to get another SpaceX you'd need another Musk and they're few and far between.