499 posts • joined Monday 11th July 2011 11:16 GMT
Probably doesn't matter
If circuit densities don't increase much from now on, there are still massive gains to be made in cheapening manufacturing processes, and substituting readily available materials for expensive ones etc. As others have said software can be radically improved and de-bloated (I'm writing this on a blisteringly fast Lubuntu desktop running on a multicore CPU supporting multiple virtual OSs at 97% hardware speed ).
The major change will be in adoption - when 80% as opposed to 2% of the population finish education knowing how to program; people who won't tolerate illiteracy and incontinence concerning the handling of data in their workplaces.
Some of the really interesting scientific developments in the next 50 years are likely to be in biotech and nanotech anyway. Figuring out how to make solar panels as a really cheap and durable add-on surface coating to everything exposed to outside light such as tiles and building cladding materials for example. Figuring out how to grow oil from algae in desert areas under bioplastic polytunnels with closed-circuit (i.e. zero system water loss) irrigation. It's unlikely operating these systems will need faster computers, and if designing them does, putting more of the faster computers being made into the cloud enables these clusters to serve more uses than application dedicated machines.
Copyright and Patents both have positive feedback mechanisms
Positive feedback as in an unstable circuit case, in relation to how these areas of law have been extended to suit vested interests far beyond the optimisation of public benefit.
In the case of copyright the main financial beneficiary, once having concentrated ownership through capitalism, became the only voice on the issue of copyright extension fit for publication in the mass media they own. Prior to social networking this was likely to be the only voice which could ever be heard on the matter.
In the case of patents the law is largely decided by lawyers, who naturally want more of it, resulting in the original intent of legislators being stretched to the limits of the legal imagination. Once a patent application has been worked over expensively by a patent lawyer to the point of unreadability outside of his peer group, terms such as "obviousness" and "inventive step" have taken on entirely different legal meanings from the understandings of mere engineers knowledgeable in the state of the relevant technical art, once tampered with by sufficient case law over a long enough period.
Attempts (some of these successful) have also being made to extend both areas of law through international treaty, secretly negotiated, and once passed creating effective blocks to reform by elected parliaments and houses of representatives to ensure us plebs get no further say in the matter.
Re: Mind control
It seems to be their efforts at mind control through the threats and propaganda you get in the non-skip section at the start when you load a DVD or when they have you as a captive audience in the cinema which has turned the public against them. Prior to the peer to peer communications made possible by the Internet, mass media was the only message on this, and it published their side of the story and there wasn't another side considered by the publishers with a vested interest as being fit to be heard.
As to allowing every industry with a vested interest control over part of the school curriculum for their business motivated propaganda, that isn't what schools and teachers are for.
Re: Your own server
Some ISPs have long enough duration leases on IPs that it's possible to get good enough reliability running servers on these by using dynamic DNS for the naming of them. But consumer grade connections are only suitable for low capacity servers - due to higher download than upload speeds.
Renting a virtual server at around £15/month is more suitable if you are likely to have a number of relatives hitting your latest holiday videos all at the same time, and want to do other interesting stuff including mailing lists, web applications and multiple website hosting. You'll save a lot of that by not having to leave your home based server powered up all the time.
Home based NAS boxes are useful for local backup and media serving, but can take several seconds to kick in when a client asks them to serve something, due to the disks being in sleep mode.
Re: Why Android?
I do feel it's a sad state of affairs that Android has basically become the Windows of the mobile era"
You might prefer Cyanogen Mod if you want something you can compile and hack yourself which runs on a respectable selection of mobile phone hardware. But most users like myself who benefit from the competition which occurs within Open Source systems tend only want to act as developers in respect of small parts of these systems if at all.
Much better for the most popular choice on this form factor to have sufficient openness to allow for greater openness for those who need it and have the time to develop it.
If a site wants to make a polite request clickable by the user they can ask and may even try to cultivate the kind of good reputation where users will believe this preference will be respected. Given most web browsers are unlikely to be configured by their users, what the DNT on the client says is likely to be only marginally related to the behaviour the user actually wants. Better for users who know what they want to control how the browser stores cookies and other history, and then there's no opt out for an advertiser who prefers to ignore a configured browser preference.
Re: Invalid assumption?
IPV4 means serfs get to run clients, and our overlords get to run the servers. That's what GCHQ/NSA want. Consumer devices can continue to report back to base over the Internet. NAT keeps things this way. With IPV6 there's nothing other than limited technical knowledge and lack of software which supports users with limited knowledge to stop everyone running our own servers. I see Carrier Grade NAT as the most serious current threat to the success of this particular project:
Re: IPv6 and privacy
The smallest IPV6 allocation you can get is a /64 . That gives you 2**64 - 1 addresses for TOR like purposes in respect of VPNs between friends, so your traffic could realistically emerge from and be received by anyone in your friend of a friend wider group given a suitable browser plugin. Yes I know you could use 10.*.*.* and other privately replicatable and publicly unroutable blocks for this, but the management problems of this replicated address space would make its use for this purpose more error prone, higher management effort and less likely to occur in practice.
Re: wait a minute
As to NSA involvement in standards definition, this is an organisation with 2 mutually conflicting objectives:
a. Securing US Government computing and communications
b. Spying on people
If they contribute to deliberate brokenness of standards in respect of objective a. in order to make b more feasible, they are not meeting their mission objectives by making the US government more vulnerable. This conflict probably explains why DES was apparently designed to be resistant to differential cryptanalysis when this cracking technique was not in the public domain (making DES strong) with a key short enough for the NSA to brute force at a time it was considered too expensive for anyone else to do so. The problem the NSA have with the standards committees is that published security standards are by their nature subject to very intense outside scrutiny, and unpublished ones are less likely to be adequately peer reviewed or widely implemented due to fewer people having the security clearances needed.
The fact the NSA contributed SELinux to the Kernel shows they take objective a. seriously, and it took 2-3 years for this to be properly reviewed and improved before it was considered trustable enough to become part of the mainstream kernel. It must be very hard to hide exploits in open-source code when we know where it comes from given the amount of critical review this piece of source code must have received.
Re: wait a minute
I'm sure NSA/GCHQ would love us all to stay on IPV4. Carrier grade NAT will significantly degrade genuine peer to peer encrypted services such as ZRTP and RFC 6189 e.g. for P2P opportunistically encrypting VOIP forcing people to use Skype type services instead. If you can no longer punch a P2P port through a double layered NAT firewall we will all have to go through centrally controlled service registries rather than being able to run and secure our own servers.
Re: No torture (of English) required
"Windows runs on 90% of desktops."
The desktop is a declining market. The growth now is in the cloud and on mobile and small form factor devices.
Re: Evolutionary Dead End?
There are 3 possible outcomes of this kind of development approach:
a. Mir dies, due to difficulties getting it adopted by developers at the layers above and below it who don't see the benefit.
b. Mir finds a niche (e.g. small mobile displays) and lives there alongside X11 and Wayland in other niches, e.g. larger displays.
c. Mir is so successful that competitors such as X11 and Wayland become historical footnotes.
In event a. Shuttleworth loses some of his money and Ubuntu some of its reputation, other developers fill these spaces and life moves on. In events b. and c. everyone mostly gains, except in event c. for a very few Wayland developers whose skills are so specialised they are unable to transfer to where these are needed.
The failure or partial or complete success of Mir will be decided mostly by non Canonical developers working at the upper and lower layers. If Mir is adopted by the upper software layer developers and feet are dragged by the hardware layer developers, the ecosystem where Mir is initially most successful will be driven by a more limited choice of hardware.
Re: Cloud cuckoo land thinking...
"Nuclear decommissioning costs are minimal because new plants have the decommissioning cost paid up front gathering interest. Considering a 40 to 60 year period of operation, the amount up front doesn't have to be much even with low interest rates."
It doesn't work that way. Unless you can find one example where the operator of such a plant has been required to post a bond up front. Politics prevents that, because at any given point of decision making time it's always politically easier for a future generation of humanity to pay the cost then than for the current generation to pay it now.
So in practice it's a subsidy pure and simple.
The root zone is a very small and well known file
And ultimately, it's up to anyone configuring a DNS client to decide where to get it from.
It's true that ICANN has some infrastructure making signing of this more secure in connection with DNSSEC, compared to what a competing startup might have. This includes ability to have some but not all directors with smartcards able to get on planes to revoke the root key and cause another to be rolled over and established in the event it gets compromised. Not a trivial crytographic operation to manage all of this, though while hardly anyone uses DNSSEC hopefully it will become important within a few years.
So for stability purposes it would probably make more sense for ICANN to come under ITU managment than for the ITU or some collective formed by TLD DNS server operators to establish an alternative administration for the purpose. Selling off .porn and .coca-cola to the highest bidder really doesn't help the US argue that ICANN isn't broken. Those who believe in the right of all Americans to act as the world government will of course downvote this proposal.
But in realpolitik terms, getting the US to agree to it (if agreement is required instead of the rest of the world deciding to setup and manage an alternative root) will probably have to wait until the US wants something from the UN worth more to them than they value ICANN, and which other major countries could grant them but are not really that bothered about.
All energy sources are subsidised
Has anyone noticed their climate-related building insurance premiums going down ? No, I thought not.
Re: In related news,
Yet everyday there's someone new trying to convince you that they have the magic secret to making this most public of systems completely private. And people always buy it.
Do you buy envelopes or always use postcards ? And if the former, is this because envelopes can't be steamed open, or because the privacy gained is worth the cost of doing this which generally outweighs the benefits to the attacker of this kind of attack ?
Re: what's a sq acre?
The square of a 2 dimensional space must be a 4 dimensional space. Logically this means beardy must be experimenting with time travel.
simulated gravity needed or you fill the ISS with wort foam
With no gravity, the fermenting wort will simply expand as a growing mass of foam. There would be enough sugar in this liquid until the ferment is complete for the wort foam bubbles to get very large and numerous. So unless they only ferment a very tiny brew, the mass of expanding foam will soon fill the entire space station with a sticky, yeasty mess.
The only way around this problem is to simulate gravity by carrying out the brew using a revolving drum. "Up" , where the C02 can escape, will be close to the axle around which the drum rotates. There will need to be a hole near the axis to let the C02 out. Just as with any fermentation vessel, without a hole or preferably an airlock, you would have a bottle bomb.
Bottle conditioning wouldn't work either, unless the conditioning yeast was settled out away from the stopper by spinning the bottle first, and then mostly allowed to eject into another container, to separate it from the conditioning yeast.
@Khaptain: Re: It's a good start.
You do your faith position no favours by insulting the honestly and intelligently held positions of those you disagree with. Christianity or Islam are not synonymous with creationism, though the almost illiterate approach to selective quoting adopted by both Evangelical Atheists and fundies to justify their positions is much the same. As to belief in the 'Sky Fairy' your position can just as easily and offensively be classified as a 'New Testament conspiracy theorist' or 'Koran denialist', lumping yours together with the moon landing conspiracy theorists and AGW denialists who reject out of hand their own chosen and disliked bodies of evidence because it disagrees with their prejudices. I don't doubt that some atheists have sincerely held and considered views - but that position isn't exclusive to atheism and I'm glad the Scout movement is recognising the legitimacy of other faith positions.
˙ƃuılıǝɔ ǝɥʇ ƃuolɐ ƃuıʞlɐʍ puɐ sʇooq ɔıʇǝuƃɐɯ ʎɯ ƃuıɹɐǝʍ ɯ,ı uǝɥʍ qoʇs ʎʇıɹǝʌ ƃuıpɐǝɹ pǝʎoɾuǝ sʎɐʍlɐ ǝʌɐɥ ı
forking generally good for long term
The choice arising from the ability of open source developers to fork major parts of the software ecosystem is generally considered a strength and not a weakness. Sometimes forks intentionally recombine to strengthen the whole, e.g. having a development fork allowing for major changes and a maintenance fork where stability and security only patches from upstream occur with no feature enhancements. Sometimes forks allow different development visions to be tested, in which case either both find a niche and become different products useful to different user groups or one proves successful and the other is abandoned. But without the chance to test both development directions, you'd never know which one will be the dead end. In closed source development the project manager who makes this decision might well get it wrong, and programmers who don't like it can't do anything to change this other than get a job elsewhere.
Much better to ferment it outside the body.
Look, making beer is easy and takes about 3-4 weeks unless you want it above 6% ABV. To make 23 litres takes about an hour to start it if you use spraymalt, and about an hour to bottle it. If you drink it quickly enough you don't even have to bottle it, a pressure keg will do just fine.
Yes indeed. In parts of the Rhineland, they have a tradition of drinking 1 week in ferment (i.e. unfinished, sweet, bubbling and slightly yeasty) white wine with onion tart. Makes you feel warm inside, and not more than 2 glasses are recommended, unless you want to get up multiple times in the night.
Very high voltage DC is more efficient for transmission over very long distances, and is used as such for undersea power cables and inter AC interconnections between AC synchronous control regions - e.g. there are 3 such regions in North America. DC isn't suitable for local distribution though. I agree that house lighting will need rewiring for DC when LED lighting takes over. Having one transformer for this per household makes more sense than having dozens of very small ones.
@A J Stiles: Re: Public key around symmetric key
"Is public-key cryptography still really so much more computationally expensive than symmetric-key as only to be suitable for temporarily encrypting a symmetric key which is then used for the real encrypted exchange?"
Yes definitely. The reason being that an asymmetric key can only be used to encrypt or decrypt a number, based upon arithmetic operations involving the key components and the number. Fine if the number is random and of a size suitable for use as a symmetric key. This will still take forever if your number is a DVD's worth of data, as carrying out a modular exponentiation or eliptic curve computation on a number sized in Gigabytes will take very much longer than such calculations involving prime products of random 1024 bit numbers, and random 256 bit numbers large enough to be suitable for use as AES256 keys.
Symmetric block cyphers can chomp through a DVD's worth of data and more at Gigabit Ethernet speed.
E.g. you could put public keys into DNS instead of sticking them into certificates (of course, this just moves the trust issue to your DNS records, but at least those can be managed and verified by yourself).
Far from perfect, but a great improvement on the current CA system. With the current SSL certs, a CA in Iran controlled by the Iranian government can forge a certificate for any server regardless of whether the server owners have anything to do with Iran.
With DNSSEC, and putting your server cert in DNS, you get to choose the TLD (DNS top level domain) registry, and its policies. Not perfect, because TLDs are all directly or ultimately controlled by national governments, but at least you get to choose which government can subvert your cert based on the TLD of the domain you register, rather than allowing your cert to be subverted by any of them.
Re: Rigid Airships have a place
An application where existing technology is expensive and difficult, is lifting the largest and highest wind turbines on top of towers for offshore wind generation. Putting the towers up and nacelle units on top is relatively easy, it's the turbine blades which are so large and capable of generating dangerous and destructive forces in tiny windspeeds during installation. Offshore wind generators tend to be much larger than onshore ones. The ship-based cranes currently used for this purpose can only work on very calm days, and if an airship could do this job more quickly or safely in even very slight wind this would increase the time window during which this work could be carried out.
Re: Easiest way of compromizing a random number generator...
Using AES256, I think you'll need 2**256 iterations before the pseudo random sequence repeats itself which is large in relation to the number of atoms and time quanta in the universe and its expected lifetime. Of course if you know block X in the system you also know block X+1, but if blocks X .... X+n are used as key material e.g. in a stream cypher where attacker doesn't get to see any X, the sequence of key material will be unknowable by viewing ciphertext created by XORing plaintext and the key which effectively becomes the one-time pad generated once Alice and Bob share secret X e.g. using Diffie Hellman.
As much a human security issue as a technical one
Presumably, a cell tower also isn't secure if someone can physically break into it. So the trust issue is mainly to do with the security of the individual/s and premises where the femtocell is housed, assuming it's intended for public as opposed to private service. It's still a good idea to make the hardware tamper resistant, as having femtocells hosted privately and not on secured premises owned by the network operators blurs the distinction between untrusted network outsiders and network insiders who have to be trusted and kept accountable.
Making hardware reasonably tamper resistant is then a question of general risk management. There's no such thing as fully tamper proof. Even a bank ATM machine can be dragged out of a wall with a tractor and chains and taken and attacked elsewhere.
belief in non existing things
There is word for people who believe in things that don't exist - "psychotic".
Ah well oh wise one, so do you think mathematics exist independently of the mind of the beholder ?
If you don't, then the universe dissappears in a puff of circular logic, because we have no other way to describe the physics of the universe other than by using maths to describe this physics. That would have the unfortunate consequence of making the universe a human construct, and not the other way around.
If you think the proofs of maths, e.g. an infinity of prime numbers, exist independently of humans ability to understand these then you're believing in something with existence independent of the existence of matter, energy and the universe. Also there's the interesting problem of nature not having infinities, but maths having these and with certainty.
I'd be astonished if you don't believe in a hundred things which don't exist before breakfast, e.g. the probable existence of tomorrow, without which there would be little point going to work or shopping.
fixed in its firmament and fairytale physics
"When was the last time a religious advocate was willing to admit that something in their religion was not true - NEVER."
Don't know about you, but it's been a long while since I met anyone of any religion who still thinks the Sun orbits around the Earth and not the other way around. But neither geocentrism nor intelligent design can or should be classified as core belief.
It works both ways. Some atheists had a really hard time accepting the big-bang theory when their previous belief in the steady-state universe had neatly avoided the universe having to have a beginning.
As to what science really knows and doesn't, Jim Baggot's recent book concerning fairytale physics is a very good guide as to the state of physics to date. It's also highly critical of multiverse theory, the anthropic principle and string theory as unscientific metaphysical concepts. Quite challenging against current atheistic religious origins fairytale mythology which relies upon a stack of unproven, unproveable and untestable assumptions which can't be experimentally verified or disproved, and based around which experiments can't be designed.
No obligation to resolve
Given the security issues to do with a TLD namespace for sale to the highest bidder unlikely to result in massive legal expenditure, operators of DNS resolvers, and suppliers of default configurations to such may sensibly choose to decide that resolving any TLD labels of more than 3 letters isn't worth it.
@A Non e-mouse
"What happens when it's cloudy ?"
2 possible approaches or some combination of these 2:
a. Use somewhere at high altitude in the Atacama desert for the downlink, or somewhere else where it's cloudy very infrequently, degrade to conventional slower downlink when conditions require it . High altitude desert locations are likely best suited.
b. Have more than 1 downlink station on the ground, and routing between satellites to whichever ones have non-cloudy downlinks accessible.
How to maintain the careers of naval officers
Argue the case to maintain defences concerning threats which no longer exist, by pretending new threats (Iran, North Korea ?) are in some way equivalent to the old ones.
Re: Tiered internet?
Can't exactly see that the Internet isn't tiered, given the fact that backbone providers e.g. Level 3 charge differently from peering points e.g. Linx who charge for bandwidth differently from the way a datacentre charges server operators , who charge for bandwidth differently from the way a retail ISP charges retail customers for connections to premises.
What this seems to be about is not all peering arrangements being equal.
compromising cheap with reliable
I've run an interesting variety of small charity and community organisation services, some Internet standards based, some custom webapps and sites, on a £15/month virtual machine running Debian stable which has dist-upgraded successfully for 10 years now with better than 99.9% scheduled availability (i.e. no more than 4 hours average unscheduled downtime per year over that period.
If I wanted better than that, I'd rent 2 of these on different networks with different providers and figure out how to synchronise them and do round robin DNS. But that would be an extra level of complexity I don't need. The main cost is the time of yours truly who admins, develops and maintains it all, but the knowledge gained is what I sell, so it's effective revenue not cost as far as my own bank balance is concerned.
Faster journeys ?
Hypothetically possible if less road space is needed for parking and more vehicle sharing reduces congestion.
Contamination of evidence
Given the press hacked this account, what value is any claimed "evidence" which could have been planted there in order to sell a story ? Can't see why the culprits of this false dissappearance aren't given carte blanche in connection with the plausible deniability of any mailbox contents by this.
Journalists who interfere with the proper investigation of crime need locking up in my view.
Re: How many of the acres of computers the NSA have...
"In fact why do you think they have so many acres of compute power?"
Because very many of their targets are careless and use weak passwords or outdated standards like WEP and because the NSA has very many surveillance targets at any one time I would deduce. A possibility is that the NSA have discovered unpublished solutions to how to factor products of 2 very large primes other people don't know about or have a similarly unpublished solution to the discrete logarithm problem needed to crack RSA or Diffie Hellman even with acres of compute power. But they'd have to give whoever knows these secrets better incentive to keep these secrets than could be obtained through publication of this knowledge - see below.
"The only safe way to encrypt something the NSA can't break, is to use your very own private encryption algorithm, and most of us aren't capable of producing one of them."
Most such algorithms will prove remarkably easy for the NSA to break, because they won't benefit from expert peer review, as such algorithms have proved breakable almost invariably in the past. The best algorithms are the ones where there is a large enough prize for breaking them, and objective knowledge exists that many highly expert cryptanalysts have spent years unsuccessfully trying to break them with no break having been published. Do you think a security academic like me wouldn't love to be able to make my currently local reputation go international by knowing and publishing how to factorise the product of 2 very large primes or solve the discrete logarithm problem in a reasonable period of time on any feasible collection of compute power ? As to breaking home made algorithms, that's a first year's undergraduate exercise for students of cryptanalysis.
If they have the private key they can MITM diffie hellman too
Perfect forward secrecy using DH key exchange and throwing the session key away afterwards can only be authenticated to stop Eve who works for the NSA doing a MITM attack with both Alice and Bob (who think they have a direct connection) using either RSA or a pre-shared secret for authentication. If Eve has the secrets involved she can do a MITM here and subvert the session. Perfect forward secrecy only works in respect of session which occurred previously to Eve obtaining the long-term secrets used by Alice and Bob to authenticate each other. There may also be some advantage to using Diffie Hellman keys if Eve wants to do some fishing after the event using her vast session recording database and isn't actively monitoring Alice and Bob's communications with each other in real time.
Bitcoin is a religion
That's why the true believers downvote you for asking reasonable questions. Their system can't stand up to such. Well, if not a religion a bit like the Pokemon card craze. An obsession with trading something arbitrarily made in short supply but fundamentally useless and popular amongst spotty teenagers for as short as such crazes last. As to virtual currencies, these have a great future - money earned on my local LETS 20 years ago is spendable at par today and sterling equivalent value has been maintained, something Bitcoin can't claim as it can fluctuate in value by 50% in as little as an hour.
Useful to teach all of these things
C, C++, Python, Java or C#, software engineering development methodologies, databases, SQL, maths, data structures, object oriented design, AI, neural networks, operating systems, crypto, forensics, embedded systems, assembler, network routing algorithms, even machine architecture and machine code. Where I work ( clue: a newish University in the Midlands) we teach all of these things and merging our previoius Computing Science and Software Engineering schools strengthened both as well as the range and quality of our courses. Our stats show our graduates to be pretty much all employed. However, there's only room to include so many of these subjects on a 3 year undergraduate course if these are to be studied in any depth, so we can't in practice teach all of these subjects on all of our courses. So the selection of subjects depends upon whether our students want to study electronics or computer science, or games programming, or business IT, or networking and/or security or forensics based courses.
How the band got its name
"In the summer the NRL will begin balloon flights into storm systems, and there are also plans for a specially-shielded aircraft to search for gamma radiation."
As likely to fly as a lead zeppelin methinks.
Land value taxation
" - or - some sort of land value tax, on the basis that you can't move it outside of our tax jurisdiction. "
LVT has much to recommend it - if set at a rate which encourages better use of land assets.
So this one isn't an "or", it's more an "and", because if you try to use LVT entirely to replace income, VAT, sales and profits taxation for funding the expenses a modern democratic states engages in, it would have to be set at such a high rate that all land would revert to the state so you wouldn't collect any tax. That's why personally I favour a combination of LVT and Tobin taxes, the latter to be collected at a fixed rate in a fully automated manner upon all bank transactions.
Tobin was right
Another approach exists instead of employing an army of accountants and tax officials trying to work out which transactions lead to profits where, and which transactions lead to income and which do not, and which lead to value added and which don't. That's to get rid of all these taxes and tax all bank transactions instead at the point at which these are made, but at a lower rate. Means you have to get rid of cash though, or replace it with a different kind, e.g. carrying a duty to remain valid, e.g. 10% of its value every year so notes and coins have to go into a special machine a year after issue to be replaced at 90% face value in new ones.
That would probably lead to a very different kind of economy with much less emphasis on debt-fueled growth.
Re: What's his angle?
"The fact that the ocean's height hasn't changed in all the time the water level has been recorded shows where the evidence points."
There's archaeological evidence aplenty of flooded cities now underwater if a long enough period of measurement is considered. The historical evidence of inundations resulting from sea level rise after the last ice age includes the Atlantis and Noah flood legends. The evidence for ice ages also demonstrates massive potential for sea level rises and falls.
Re: The battery is only one part of the problem
I'm sure exchangeable batteries at recharge stations will happen at some point, but probably not while very rapid changes to the technology are occurring and uptake is still very low. Some level of maturity is needed first, or the tech has to be so good and widespread that the value added by having exchangeable batteries is greater than the value lost through losing flexibility over adoption of newer technology on a more rapid schedule. The investment in building such recharge stations and equipping various models of car with standard battery sizes is huge, compared to custom fitting this year's best battery in this year's latest model of electric car, when a manufacturer is expecting to sell only a few thousand of the latter to early adopters in a conventional auto market of millions of units.
The car manufacturers have to agree standards for mounting and connecting standard sized and shaped batteries which can be slid in and out in a standard way first. That's a big ask if next year's battery technology is likely to be 10% more cost effective than this year's, and incompatible with the constraints which this kind of standardisation is likely to place over the design issues which have to become fixed for the batteries to become interchangeable.
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