I know exactly how this analyst did this, because I just did it myself.
1. Look around office, and shout out "so who's getting a new iP5 then. once it's announced?"
2. Count number of responses. Count both the "yes" and "meh"'s as YES
3. Faint surprise when the "meh"'s don't buy once phone spec is actually announced
4. Rationalise the "meh" responses down to the reason that since most are 4/4S users already and probably running IOS6, there's no real reason (aka killer new feature) to upgrade for.
Where do I send my analyst invoice to...?