180 posts • joined 16 Apr 2011
At Last - Real Science
For years I've watched articles nibbling away at the AGW issue, and many end with an obligatory sentence that, "Notwithstanding the above, AGW is warming the Earth", or some similar platitude.
It was career suicide for a scientist to open break with the Warmists. Now we find what we suspected. The models are subjective, and worse, look like they've been played up by unscrupulous or gullible people.
This is good science, insofar as it shows that much of the Warming story is POOR science. Heck, any model that ignore solar activity is broken! It's time we got real. We aren't going to roast. We aren't going to drown!
Of course, we could be like China and choke on our own pollution, and we are using up gas and oil faster than we should, so moving to alternatives makes some sense. Wind power is on the edge of a scam though, and solar may already be there. We need serious alternatives such as thorium reactors.
You must be a Heinlein fan! That was "Starship Troopers"
The article misses a couple of points. It's predicated on Block-IO and SANs being the future of storage, which is a bit out of touch.
Look at Object Storage and the shingled drive makes sense. In Object stores, data is written sequentially, and if a roll-back to previous versions is needed, any updates create a new block. Shingle drives work really well in this mode, since each written block just tags on the end of the last written block.
Archiving works the same way,and if the runes are read correctly, this is the future for hard drive storage anyway, with Tier 1 being SSD only.
Seagate's new interface makes a lot of sense. It's a lot more efficient than the existing software stack. It's time to revise the stack for all disks.
As for Helium, this isn't a magic substance. All it means is that HGST has figured out how to do a 6TB drive. They've an edge over their competitor, but that's only temporary!
Is this one a bit slow
The performance numbers seem a bit on the low side. 12 minutes to boot my desktop is a long time to wait, given it takes 30 seconds off my (inexpensive) SSD.
Garbage In Garbage Out
Most of the dire predictions of AGW are based on IPCC's model. This failed to take account of the sun's output variation, and of the fact that most sensors are near cities, which biases the average global temperature upward. Add to that a very unrealistic model of Greenland ice cap melt, and the Warmists had a story of gloom and doom to tell.
We are fixing the model, but it still can't acount for the 'hiatus', so it still is clearly very inadequate. Add to that all the 'warning signs' are turning into red herrings. The Arctic ice is roaring back, the PIG ice pack in Antarctica is growing like crazy, and winters seem to be getting much colder.
The reality is that the models don't work yet, and we should ignore them, but that would shatter the ricebowls of a lot of climate scientists, consultants and alternate energy companies. And a few politicians too!
An IBMer told me a story....
I heard from a director-level IBMer in the PC Division at the time that CPM actually was IBM's first choice, but that it was difficult working with Kildall.
He said, and I have not verified it, that they had arranged to call Kildall with a final decision to go or not, and asked he be by the phone. When they called with the good news, Gary was playing golf, and a call to the clubhouse resulted in a caddy driving the "mobile" phone out to Kildall. He was heard making a comment to "Tell those ******** I'll call them back when I finish my golf." That triggered Plan B at IBM!.
Might be true, might not. But the teller would have been on that call without question.
That could make Stephen fry close to accurate.
Contradict's your own recent article
It seems that you are contradicting your own article of a couple of weeks ago on this subject where the British Antarctic Survey found the PIG had retreated because of the loss of a submerged ridge which allowed warm water in.
Article is at http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/01/03/antarctic_ice_shelf_melt_lowest_ever_recorded_just_not_much_affected_by_global_warming/
The irreversibility also is in question, since the thermocline has now dropped 750 ft (cold water in this area overlays warm water). This effectively blocks the warm flow, and ice is growing back rapidly. I'd note in passing that the quoted irreversibility is in fact the output of a computer model and follows the "GIGO" rule. This was in the original BBC article.
A job well done!
Thank you, Bill and Melissa!
Where is the Globe Warming?
Gosh, Lewis, when I last wrote on climate, the commentards jammed the Antarctic melt issue down my throat. You mean it's a myth, and those guys stuck in the ice aren't there because of AGW. I suppose the really nasty winters we are having are due to AGW, but I'm straining to find the connection anymore.
CNN ran "March of the Penguins" twice last night, so I'm sensing the Press is preparing us for bad news about Ice Ages. Al Gore may be the first recipient of both a Nobel and an IgNobel for the same work of fiction if this goes on!
Aussie is the only place that's getting hotter!
Following the pack
In fiddling the model, Mr Stern was just following IPCC precedents. After all, the basic computer model for Global Warming has been revised downward drastically in the last few years, in part because none of the predicted warming has occurred. So just plain guessing of the model parameters by Mr Stern, with judicious insertion of biased assumptions, would be nothing new.
I suppose those sea-based wind turbines could be used to anchor cruise ships and fishing vessels
Re: Why not just use SSD or flash
Sorry to deflate you, Been there, done that!
Re: Why not just use SSD or flash
These all seem like things you do to get around having slow storage. Why not just put in fast storage in the first place?
Why not just use SSD or flash
Starting the article with "Providing an Oracle database with 10,000 IOPS could mean aggregating dozens of 15,000 RPM drives, and unless the database is several terabytes in size that is a lot of wasted space" begs the issue of why you should just go to SSD.
No flash cache, no SSD tier...just use SSD. Heck, a Terabyte SSD is just $500 retail, which is about the same as a 15,000 RPM hard-drive. And you'll only need a couple to get 10K IOPS!
I'm surprised this discussion about how to get more from hard drives still comes up. It's over, and SSD won by several laps!
Old SIGs never die they just fade away!
Why bother? Ethernet has won!
This is a big plus for Intel, even if very belated. They are finally moving from their view that Wintel is the center of the universe to a much more sensible position. Despite the jokes about Chrometel and the rest, their direction is coming together, but they have a lot of ground to make up in some areas.
This will help enliven a computer industry that was rapidly becoming white box and commoditized. In the end, the losers are the proprietary CPU chip makers, and Microsoft.
Re: Took a long time...
There's now room for US hardware manufacturing as well as design companies. On-shoring, especially in niche markets, makes a lot of sense for smaller startups.
IPCC blaming heretics again?
It looks like climate change disaster scenarios are moving from the horror section to the comedy section of the store.
No heat since 1995, no melting glaciers, no ice falling off Greenland, and a really quiet Sun. All those spenders of billions for green energy got the story wrong. Now we'll need a new reason to wean ourselves off oil use!
HMC by another name!
When Intel pulled out of the Hybrid Memory Cube Consortium, the reckoning was that they intended to roll their own version, and this is it! It's probably put together with Micron as a partner, and is close to, but not exactly the same as, HMC.
The high end will be interesting. NVidia is in to HMC, AMD is likely working up the idea, too.
And the idea of memory stacking fits the mobe market as well, so ARM is in the game!.
Roll on persistent carbon nanotube memory. That will upset the applecart again!
HMC talks to Terabyte/second speeds, so it will be a big impactor on performance.
InfiniBand is not an escape route
Mellanox is trying to convert itself to an Ethernet provider with RoCE. I think the writing is on the wall for both FC and IB, as Ethernet surges, and as blockIO gives way to object access modes. Supporting object storage is the only way Brocade could move into a growth area.
IPCC doesn't help
I think Lewis hit the nail on the head. We need nuclear power, though I'd like a push for Thorium-cycle molten salt reactors, because they are cheaper, safer and create almost no long term waste. Thorium supplies run to thousands of years already, which gives us a bit of extra time to do fusion!
Of course, IPCC's fatuous insistence that we are heading toward climate disaster misses the point. We'll run out of oil and gas first. Their insistence on orthodoxy in thinking is constipating the debate. We need to talk to the fuel supply issues and not to Gaia-centric irrelevances.
I'll end with the standing disclaimer, cos I don't want to lose my grants. "Irrespective of any facts, and based on a model that is known to be totally inaccurate, Anthropogenic Global Warming will possibly happen sometime on a planet near Earth."
MTBF is a fiction?
With an 11.8 percent AFR in any of the four years, never mind earlier failures, the MTBF cannot be even close to the 2 million hours claimed by vendors. The number would be worse than 0.2 failures in 35,000 hours, which is 150,000 MTBF.
BlackBlaze may be using consumer drives in an enterprise mode, which increases duty cycle, but decreases start-stop. You have to read the small print. Even so, the drives don't seem to meet spec.
I'd believe SSD MTBFs, though. They should meet or exceed 2 million hours without a problem, except for early life failures due to manufacturing.
IPCC is really good at headlining doom and pushing the missing parts of the story under the table. Having done that for decades, they are now hoist on their own petard, when they can't explain why the model that had such dire prognostications no longer ties to reality..
This is so clearly a case of crying wolf!
Some ral science at last
So many climate reports are based on those flawed IPCC models that it makes you wonder if "science" is the right term to use. Clearly, the IPCC models are broken, and no amount of political correctness and word-smithing of reports can hide that anymore.Now we have yet another factor that the models don't know about. It appears the Sun affects Earth's climate! And it cycles in intensity!
IPCC is leading the "Green" charge to cover Europe in wind farms, and we in the US are saved only by the current government gridlock from a similar fate. It looks like it ain't necessarily so, and in a big way, and if the science is right, we have 30 years before things start warming again. Given the impact of CO2 in that timeframe will be ameliorated by the response of plants to having more food, maybe we are out to 2060 before things get warm. IPCC should be ashamed of there behaviour. Perhaps the political nature of the committee and vested interests pushing for huge CAPEX are to blame.
Doesn't 9GB stem from a comment by Teradata's CTO in the mid 90's that 9GB drives were best for databases. How that turned into 9GB LUNs escapes logic, though I suspect it was a lack of real thinking.
Explains why object stores and SSD escape some data center architects completely!
It's all politics
IPCC has demonstrated that it isn't really a scientific body. They are intensely partisan on AGW, cherry-pick data to support it, and have a huge reluctance, to the point of malevolence, to accept alternative data and theories.
This is the type of science where you decide waht you want to prove, then "fix" the experimental results to prove it. All it takes to understand this is to follow the money. No-one will pay for climate non-events. We need a dire prognostication to raise the cash to the current levels. This debate is all about rice-bowls, and not the ones people eat from!
Super-fast hard drive? Now that's an oxymoron!
Seagate had me cheering right up to the point where they said they are developing a new fast drive for enterprise blade servers. Despite their bluster, that market is heading to flash fast, simply because of raw performance.
A new 10K RPM drive aimed at being a market segment leader doesn't make any sense. It's like GM announcing today that they've just developed the world's biggest steam-driven truck!
Temp data is "adjusted"
It seems that there are serious aberrations caused by thermometers near cities, which report higher temperatures due to local heating from power output and more importantly the concrete surfaces. The siting of these might account for a good portion of the world-wide warming,
Older measurement sites would not be changed by citification, and many of the European sites would fall into this category. What the study is saying is that the new city sites in the developing world may be biasing the data to appear like warming.
What's wrong with the IPCC model:
Doesn't handle current hiatus in warming
Over-estimates carbon dioxide impact
Over-estimates ice melt/sea level rise
Over-estimates warming rate (by own admission)
Doesn't handle Sun variations
Period of warming used to justify story is shorter than the hiatus
The head of IPCC makes $5million per year from consulting...go figure!
Waiting for a flash replacement?
I'm surprised 10 percent are waiting for a flash replacement. We are at least 3 years away.
Waiting for a flash replacement?
That 10 percent of respondents are waiting for a flash replacement is a real surprise. Are they motivated by price or fear of wear-out or what?
Nile is two years out!
Nile is a pre-announcement. It's two years out. In that time, expect 10TB drives and perhaps more. Seagate is working on shingle and HAMR, and may have "2D" storage too. WD is working on technologies as well. Helium-filled drives may have 50% more platters, and they are looking at shingle and HAMR.
Furthermore, the Nile architecture will involve a lot of head nodes on those VNX arrays. I'm going to predict that exabyte-class systems are almost all Ethernet-accessed Object storage, with localized zones of BlockIO. They won't be jumbo SANs.
First 8 drive 1U NAS box?
The Seagate box looks really close to units we were shipping from Verari in 2006!
Plus ca change!
Seagate running out of options?
Seagate isn't moving fast enough to gain a position in the future flash game. They are running low on candidates to buy. Fusion-IO is clearly one, but they seem a bit discombobulated recently, since Dave Flynn was forced out.
Perhaps Seagate sees too much of a disconnect in businesses with flash and is focusing on the box business instead. After all, most all of the design will come from third parties, some of whom sell to the same customers.
Speaking in tongues
EMC's issue is they are speaking a range of protocols, storage modes and interfaces, as well as management options. ViPR is an attempt to converge the management that fills a huge void in their offering.
NetApp has one solution, but it is clearly the leader in its class. The adding of Object Storage will make them really solid, though Storagegrid may not be the answer.
In both cases, they are a big step away from Unified Storage on the Ceph model. This is the real future of storage, and I understand that EMC has announced a Unified platform just today. I think they perceive a real risk in the blockIO business and are protecting themselves against a relatively rapid transition to more scalable solutions.
Reinventing the wheel
My local medical group in the US (just 100 doctors) has quietly extended their IT system to provide electronic prescriptions direct to the local pharmacies. I suspect they paid a little bit less than $1.5 Billion for the service.
Why does the British government persist in setting up massive central software schemes when they could do this much more efficiently on a distributed local system. Heck, they could buy the US system, run it on local hospital servers, and probably have a billion dollars left over for medical care.
And what's more, it would be much more flexible, since the US system has a good many more insurance and other services to manage, so it would be easily a superset of the UK needs.
HP epitomizes what happens when you just become a rice-box reseller. All the big customers buy direct, then the noodle stores open up in the US and sell to the smaller fry. Then you end up boasting about turn-rounds with software and services.
Painful, but the only way out is to figure a new architecture and make it yourself!
And the polar ice caps growing didn't help?
The two polar ice caps have shown strong growth, reversing recent trends, especially in the Arctic.
We may indeed be tipping over into a Little Ice Age, and this could account for the reversal of sea-level rise.
Blame it on the Sun, which is running cool!
CLOUDS are SAFE?
AWS seems to be doing a better job than most enterprises on security. They tackled it from the start as a high-priority issue, given their deployment model and multi-tenancy.
NSA could learn from them!
Given this deal underpins a huge portion of government IT, since Bureau of the Interior provides services across a lot of other departments, this is a big issue, and I'm sure it will be heavily scrutinized.
Did IBM get the Government's COBOL cloud?
With so many legacy apps written in COBOL, did IBM get their piece of this deal based on being the best host for those apps. After all, they consider mainframes as ideal cloud machines, and for COBOL it's Hobson's choice.
Of course, most of us don't consider COBOL+mainframe as even close to cloudy, so maybe IBM is crowing only to the few lovers of COBOL who are left!
(Remember IBM is trying to get out of the COTS server business!)
Time to bring manufacturing home?
With all these negatives from Foxconn, Apple needs to work on their image -a lot!
Since Foxconn is going to roboticise away it's workforce. This might be a good time for Apple to move manufacturing back to robot factories in the US, where the higher standards will protect their name.
Maybe the Feds will give them a tax break on all that foreign cash if they do that?!!?
This weather balloon is clearly a close relative of the one at Roswell. Reporters need to check if it actually said "Take me to your Leader", and if the truck took it to the White House.
Congress should ask NSA for a transcript of all the conversations at the site.
The people need to know, so that the proper shrine will be set up at the site!
There is a reality show planned for Fox TV already.
Let's stay scientific!
Recent reports indicate major back-pedalling on AGW by its supporters, and the predicted "ENDOFTHEWORLD" has been delayed a few centuries. Sea levels will rise inches not feet, and the computer models appear to be a little less than accurate, with nearly 20 years of predicted temperature rises missing from the world-wide actual record.
Perhaps it was those apocalyptic predictions that triggered Sen Inhofe's bible-waving rant.
Personally, I'd rather stick with facts, and even IPCC's error prone predictions beat out 4000 year old mythology any time!
Since Fukushima, we've discovered that the number of deaths expected is ZERO.
Nuclear fusion is getting a lot safer, and these new designs look much better still.
We can expect the thorium cycle version of the molten salt reactor to work just as well, and we have fuel for thousands of years. No more wind power systems. Let's do this right!
Wings coming off?
The PC market fall is accelerating, which has to lead to a price war to get rid of excess inventory. This will choke new ultrabook intros, which likely will hit Intel
Negativenees on 8.1 seems universal. MS has a big problem!.Slaes of Chromebooks are rising fast, too.
And Dell and HP?
Morgan Stanley needs to figure Dell and HP as endangered species if AWS and Google win. They'll buy their cloud server gear from Quanta and other ODMs.
If drives mainly fail through a head no longer working, or a limited bad patch on one disk, this idea makes a huge amount of sense. I suspect there is prior art on this though, so Seagate probably only has a short-term lock and no patent. This needs RAID controller code to work properly. too.
Bringing Titan to Its Knees
I worked with the Lab team and Titan in my senior year in Physics, and managed to write a radio-astronomy program that brought Titan to its knees every night. Finally, the Lab took pity on all the experimenters I locked out, and showed me machine loop coding! Fun days, a great group to work with, and they were patient. If I did this today, I'd probably just get a nice message saying "over allocation. Come back next month!"
The result was I decided to be a computer engineer and not a radio-astronomer!
Is Wintel the next "mainframe"?
To be a winner, you have to provide enough value to keep customers loyal, and occasionally do a brilliant end run on the competition.
Intel needs a high-core-count low power solution with virtualization that runs like an ARM. They've got such a product in their Lab, with 80 cores and a 62W profile. That could be an ARM-buster.
But x86 and Windows have a problem. On the one hand an expensive and perhaps tired OS (getting terrible press on the desktop) and on the other a complex architecture that either costs a lot or uses a ton of power.
If the ARM64 supports KVM well, that may become the vitualized high-core-count server of the future, with a very large premium for VMware, Windows and x86.
This will be a much bigger issue if HMC memory melds with those ARM devices. A single module with KVM and a terabyte of DRAM, mounted in a micro-server chassis with 45 modules? That's potentially 256 VMs per module and 11,000 VMs per server box.!
Enter the Clouds
The best solution for long term storage is the Cloud. With a business model that replaces gear every 4 years, the core technology of the cloud is regularly refreshed. That replacement process includes copying the data to a new storage system.
This will hold true even for archived data, though maybe the replacement cycle will be a bit longer.
This way we don't get to the "One drive left to read that data, and it is broken right now" problem that has plagued tape.
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