Re: Shirley not that meme again
> Wow, you just don't get how science works do you!
Yes I do actually. From the following it isn't clear that you do:
> You come up with a theory. Then you look at real world data (not models!) and see
> if that fits your theory. If the data fits it does *not* prove your theory is correct. It just
> means that it hasn't disproved it. If the data does not fit then it shows that your theory
> is flawed.
You seem to be a bit confused. No one is comparing models to theory. Models are part of the theory. Obviously real world data has to be measured and obviously nothing is provable in science. No one would argue with you about that, least of all me.
What it is possible to say is that if a scientific theory has predictive power, and can explain and pull together multiple lines of evidence then it is something to start taking seriously. Current understanding of climate and the role of CO2 has reached that level of acceptance in the scientific community.
The point that you are arguing is that the data does not fit predictions and that therefore disproves the theory. That is too simplistic. As has been attempted to explain to you, the temperature data from the last few years is not sufficient to disprove the predictions made. Once again: this is because of the natural variations in temperature that are superimposed on the warming trend. If you want to go purely with the measured data then you need to allow a sufficiently long period to average out the natural variations and see the underlying trend. As I explained in my earlier post, it is not even as if the natural variations are completely random - we do have a pretty good handle on some of the major causes and can explain what has been going on in the last few years.
> I have not rejected the CAGW theory, I am arguing that the data is making it look
> incredibly flaky. Even if the data had supported the theory (as it seemed to do in
> the 80s and 90s but doesn't appear to since) it wouldn't have proved it - i.e. the
> science was *never* settled.
The only data you have mentioned is atmospheric temperature data. As explained, we cannot draw conclusions from that yet. However, most heat is going into the ocean. It is the total energy balance that is important and that is in line with predictions. Melting arctic ice is in line with predictions (in fact predictions were conservative). Melting antarctic ice is in line with predictions.
> I do not need to come up with an alternative theory. Why would you even suggest that?
Multiple lines of evidence support the current theory. Contrary to popular belief the supporting evidence is not just models, though they are a part of it. If you are saying that it is wrong, the onus is on you to explain why and to provide a better explanation that fits the evidence. Pending that, scientists will stick with the current theory. That's how science works.