How will HTML 5 "win" exactly?
I'm still confused as to why HTML 5 is being touted as a panacea for Flash just because it has a video tag. Flash was, and is, used for all sorts of things, especially websites that allegedly look cool but are difficult and frustrating to use.
Unless, that is, we're still referring to HTML 5 as that gelatinous blob/amorphous mass of technologies that might include CSS 3 animations (we don't really know). Then I can see if having a fighting chance.
On an anecdotal note, I wanted to book a table at a restaurant while on the move on Monday. Went to the website on my iPhone and I couldn't even extract a phone number on my flashless device.
Flash is going to be around for a long time to come whether we like it or not.