What if all investing was based on a false premise?
Investing is based on the notion that good companies exist, and that they will reasonably consistently Do Well and make money over long periods of time. Oversimplified yes, but this is Comments not Thesis. But what if there is no such thing as a Good Company?
Humans have a tendency to remember Hits and forget or ignore Misses. It keeps palm readers and other lairs in business. If you examine the whole history of many companies praised as Successful, it wasn't always that way. Or that success is hard to repeat. Apple is practically worshiped and considered a huge success today, but I was there for 15 years of 5% market share, many forgettable products, and "this is the year Apple finally goes under."
Why is Success so hard to predict, or repeat? How many great products are from one-hit wonder companies? How many great products are ruined by changes? How many good companies go directly to hell once the founder quits? Are the successes in fact largely due to random chance? If you consider the sheer number of human projects underway at any time, at least a few of them will luck into something good and useful. A million monkeys, sort of.
If people and companies are really bumbling into success more than planning and achieving it, that makes any type of investment more of a gamble than we would like to admit.
The same speculation can apply to Good Governments, Countries, Activist Orgs, and so on. Troubling, ennit?