I suspect that what we are seeing is a number of different events. First of all Windows XP expired without really laying and dying for a large number of users. It was still good enough and they had to be pushed, shoved and prodded to move and even then like stubborn mules many are still sat there.
Some moved to Windows 7 where a lot of other users are happy enough to sit hoping that the nasty smell known as Windows 8/8.1 will blow away and that Windows 10 will live up to its initial suggestion of being worth while.
That leaves the mobile devices segment, this is already said to be slowing. Most users who could find a use for such devices now have one so the market will slow. The tablet and complex phones do some things amazingly well, or so I am told. One of them is unlikely to be as long a life as e.g. the old XP machine.
Then we come to the cloud conundrum. For those who have data they mist access from everywhere except from an area with poor access right, e.g. no service or dodgy ISPs), the cloud is wonderful. Do remember that others can and will probably access that data from anywhere almost as easily. I am not so sure.
There may well be kids who can do all sort of wonderful things with all sorts of wonderful toys, it was ever thus. They may continue to do wonderful things in the future, just hope that it is not to continue to lose all those naked selfiies.
With the prospect of a decent new Windows, notice I said prospect not certainty I see a period of continued delay in the market with loads of people continuing to hold off, and yes some might adopt other devices, quill pens anyone?
Yesterday I was scanning several hundred photographs using two desk top PCs. No prospect of using anything else since limited software is on new OSs and 20MB scans need some storage space and it is NOT going to be on the cloud. If and it is a big IF windows 10 has enough support and if the price is reasonable I might upgrade, perhaps even regrade, what I do not need is a mobile 'experience' or a multi-hundred pound portable but not quite in a pocket computer - your mileage may vary.
That is why I am pleased to accept market segmentation and see many others get exactly what they want.
I was almost interested in the new Hudl for £65 just to see if I could find a use for such a beast, but I still cannot see me even getting that much use from out of something like that.
Now I am off out driving, with my 8 year old non touch phone in my pocket - (I hate touch with a real world vengeance), but others are welcome.