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* Posts by Tom 13

5490 posts • joined 10 Jun 2009

We're BFFs AGAIN, say AT&T and Netflix after penning peering pact

Tom 13
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Re: Peering

I believe the peering agreement to which you are referring was with Comcast, not Verizon. In fact I was going to comment that perhaps that means Netflix and Verizon will very soon be inking a similar deal since that seems to be the way this dance is run.

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Just TWO climate committee MPs contradict IPCC: The two with SCIENCE degrees

Tom 13
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Re: Greenhouse effect is a fact

Is it really? Please point me to the detailed, published, peer reviewed paper that details the exact effect carbon dioxide has on retained heat in a controlled environment.

I can find all kinds of references to greenhouses and cars all of which is anecdotal and not scientifically measured, quantified and explained. Then there's some hand waving because of reflection bands at specific wavelengths in our atmosphere, and out the other side we get AGW. The thing is, I see one huge differential between cars and greenhouses and CO2: both of them have physical barriers which prevent the air from moving from one place to another as it heats from the sunlight. Given the height of a column of air above either object, I expect the net heat gain for both objects is almost entirely due to the inability of the air to move, and not the changes in absorption properties inside the car or greenhouse.

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Tom 13
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Re: The heat energy gained

Actually, that's the first fundamental problem of all Climate Change. At the most basic level, ALL of the heat from our planet has to derive from one of a few sources:

1) Radiative energy from the output of the Sun

2) Radioactive decay from isotopes in the Earth itself

3) Tidal friction from the Moon.

and maybe

4) Conversion of gravitational energy to heat in the Earth's core.

The thing is, all of those source except the Sun have their maximums in the far past (at least according to accepted Big Bang theory) and are declining. Which means if the heat input is increasing it has to be coming from Sun, and it has to be increasing by more than the decreases in other sources.

Now, there is some variability in the radiative output of the Sun. But interestingly, all of the AWG climate models start with from the assumption of steady radiative output from the Sun. I once hunted down the data on the recorded radiative output and it turned out to be varying about as much as the claimed variation in surface temperature. I didn't try to correlate exact changes, only noted the degree of variability.

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Tom 13
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Re: We're not all sociopaths.

You have yet to display any hard evidence to the contrary.

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Tom 13
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Re: there is no such thing as chaos

Actually there is and it has been mathematically proven as a result of some mistaken assumptions about data inputs for weather systems. Such systems may be cyclically stable or unstable, but they are chaotic. We're just fortunate most of the systems we've found in science aren't subject to them.

I concur with everything else in you post.

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Tom 13
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Re: @Hargrove

Except that we have now moved to 20 years instead of 15. And when the initial assertions were made were were told you might perhaps see 10 years in which random variation suppressed the underlying trend. AND we've been told that unless immediate and drastic action was taken, within 100 years (later revised to 200) we would have such massive shifts in weather patterns due to climate change that the world as we know will essentially cease to exist. So at this point we are either 10 or 20% of the way along the asserted curve but have none of the predicted warming. Which means the prediction is wrong.

Now, it may be that there is a threshold level thing. But that certainly wasn't what was asserted, so the assertion MUST be withdrawn or it is simply no longer science.

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Tom 13
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Re: highly sensitive to initial conditions", and not "non-deterministic"

This assertion is unproven and that is the crux of the problem with climate science.

As someone with background training in Astronomy, where the baselines being projected relative to the data collected, it is obvious that even though the baselines for climate are shorter than the ones for my area, they are still too short for the level of certainty claimed by the Warmists.

Astronomy can at least trace its databases back to the middle ages, and sometimes further. The real weather data exists for essentially the last 50 years. Essentially the time of weather satellites. While meteorological data have been collected prior to that, the preceding 150 years correlate more like the alchemy times as compared to chemistry. It's not that they were unaware of the scientific methods prior to that, they simply didn't have the means to collect the data.

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Tom 13
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Re: A Physicist and a Chemist

Perhaps a Biologist would not be more expert in the Higgs Boson per se, but at least when presented with data discussing it, I would expect him to be better able to analyze it than a creative writer. I've known both sorts, and while creative writers may thrill my imagination, their analytical skills on the sciences are usually rather lacking. Moreover, the climate change inherently depends on contributions from the physicist and the chemist. If they tell you you have f*cked up the fundamentals, odds are you have f*cked up the fundamentals. If the base of the structure is poorly built, it will collapse. Granted in the climate change analogy the Biologist probably puts in the first floor, but the other two still pour the foundation. The artsy fartsy guys just hang the gargoyls on the outside after everybody else is done.

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Tom 13
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Re: rather easy to 'realise' something

In this debate I'd have to give the win Mike Smith on points. Yes, Kepler observed the ellipses, but it was Newton who realized their significance and then proved the Sun was at the center of the solar system. Although I believe he too made the mistake of assuming it was also the center of the universe.

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Tom 13
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Re: a microscopic contribution ... significant impact on the decisions

Well, if you believe in homeopathy, the answer is obviously YES!

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Tom 13
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Re: Warming since 1997 not being statistically significant does not mean

Actually it does. That's why all real science uses statistics to prove their models.

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Tom 13
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Re: Oh no, thermometric data is not good

Oh it's worse than that.

A friend of mine has been working on a new project at work. Somebody waved some money at them to develop some algorithms to predict when an earthquake might be about to occur using water moisture data collected from satellites. According to him, the underlying scientific premise is valid. If you look at the data where an earthquake has occurred you can see the changes over the preceding weeks. The problem is the same one Mike 137 referenced: the signal is fairly low compared to the data. Specifically, if it has recently rained in the area you get similar signals. Now, if you take the appropriate precautions, you can still work around that issue. He thought he had one: compare the output of his algorithm using data from their satellites and compare it against other models that aren't using data from his satellites. So if the other models say it hasn't rained in the area but his says it did, it's probably an earthquake. And then he ran into an insurmountable problem. With all the data integration and sharing happening with all the weather supercomputers he can't find a model that isn't contaminated with his data.

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Tom 13
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Re: are lower than the 1/6

Except that he specified 4 of the six chambers, so the odds will depend on the exact configuration for the bullets. In the case of 1-2-1-2 the symmetry would tend to cancel the gravity effect, giving essentially the 4/6 odds he quoted.

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Tom 13
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Re: No Surprise

Please provide links to your alma mater, your actual PhD, your thesis, and the names of all the people on the committee who granted your degree.

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Amazon says Hachette should lower ebook prices, pay authors more

Tom 13
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I said it before and I'll say it again:

The so-called pricing fixing case against Apple et al was never about helping the consumer; it was always about positioning Amazon to dictate to the publishers what the publishers and the authors would get paid for selling their wares.

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Tom 13
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Re: Nancy Drew #153 perhaps

While I would lean toward the Hardy Boys instead, even for these I'd argue for the paper version. I stumbled upon them because my uncle left a copy of "The Tale of Two Towers" at my grandparents house. They let me borrow it. There after every month I'd use whatever money I'd earned doing chores to buy another book in the series. I think I was driving before I stopped buying new ones. I look forward to sending them (one a month) to my nephew when he is old enough to enjoy them.

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Stick a 4K in them: Super high-res TVs are DONE

Tom 13
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Re: The TV manufacturers want a repeat of the 'flat panel' effect.

I'd say that gets you about half way there. What finished it was switching from NTSC/PAL to HDTV (or equivalents thereof for your particular region).

In my case, the first flat panel I bought was an HDTV-ready set at 720 because I was looking for a larger living room screen. HDTV was still in the early draft stages at committee and HDMI hadn't been invented yet. Then the standards were mandated. At which point we still had a CRT style TV in the basement. About a year after that I went shopping for the largest one I could afford and which would still fit in my car. I looked at the stuff available in the stores and bought one that was at 1080 over 720 because the display picture quality was better. At this point, I have no reason to upgrade beyond the 1080. In fact, I OUGHT to replace the 720 because 1) it's a bit of pain to add stuff to since it doesn't have HDMI ports, 2) it has some sort of factory defect for which a recall has been issued. But it hasn't been high on my To Do list. Right now paying off one more credit card and then saving the down payment for a new car are at the top of my list (driving a 13 year old car at this point. Growing up I never remember my dad keeping a car more than 5 years).

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Tom 13
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Re: average broadband speeds in Europe are > 16 Mb/s

I'm gonna let you in on a little US secret, so don't tell anybody else about this, ok?

Broadband speeds in the US mean fuck all when it comes to TV programming. Whether you're with Comcast, Verizon, Time-Warner or just about any other cable company, they've wired fiber to your house, or at least close enough to your house that the short cable run to your house won't seriously affect the available bandwidth. All they have to do is turn up the spigot. And since the cable stream is treated differently for billing purposes and they control the whole cable experience, they can turn it up or down as they please.

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Tom 13
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Re: What, all scratched, poorly duplicated,

Don't forget having the reels out of order!

I once watched a real piece of sci-fi schlock on DVD. It was a direct from VHS transfer. And when they'd made the VHS transfer they'd gotten the reels out of order. At first you didn't quite notice the abrupt scene shift. It only became evident when it jumped back to the first bad break. Although, the video scroll lines were intermittently evident throughout the entire film. I wish I could remember the name of it, if only to warn others away from it.

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Tom 13
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Re: Bootnote

In this instance, perhaps you should have listened to what your subconscious was trying to say.

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Tom 13
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Re: It doesn't matter how good the display is if there's nothing to display

If you take a step back and look at it, the reason most people bought even 720p TVs has nothing to do with better picture. They changed their TVs because the Feds/Parliament changed the broadcast rules. If you didn't upgrade, your tv was pretty close to useless.

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Tom 13
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Re: Only in America ...

Yeah, but from what I read on El Reg the other day, we control what you see too. I'm not sure why you put up with it. You ought to be able to fund your own productions. But I guess things have gone downhill since The Bard was in his hay day. But hey, that's your choice not mine.

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Tom 13
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Re: The litmus test of any video technology

I've heard even they've actually backed off somewhat from the HD stuff. Too high def. But you're right, with the way they ate up VHS then DVD then HD you'd think their lack of uptake would be a signal to set manufacturers.

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Tom 13
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Re: user fatigue with tech becoming obsolete

Yes! And a fair bit of user fatigue with the price gouging too.

Our primary set does the full 1080 while the 720 has been relegated to the rarely used basement (it has DVI inputs which tells you how old AND short lived the model was). But given how much cable wants to charge for "full" HD, most of the stuff we watch is still in the old size format. If I can't get "full" HD at a reasonable price from the cable company now, why in all the realms of Hades would I buy a 4K unit?

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Tom 13
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Re: "Ancient Nazi Alien Ghost Sharks" is a very different kettle of fish.

Now that's really jumping the shark, so you know everybody will see right through it.

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Indie ISP to Netflix: Give it a rest about 'net neutrality' – and get your checkbook out

Tom 13
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Re:The whole net neutrality debate is too simplistic.

I concur with this observation, but nothing else in your post.

To me the consumer, I'm paying you the ISP for my connection to the internet. Period. As the ISP you are assuming all of the risks associated with providing that service WHEN I want it for whatever service I want to use and managing the costs.

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Tom 13
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Re: nothing to do with net neutrality.

On the contrary, this has everything to do with net neutrality, or at least the case as it is presented in public. These are exactly the issues it is claimed net neutrality will resolve. Something to think about the next time you see an article about the FCC toying with the idea of re-writing the rules to implement it.

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Tom 13
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Re: very appealing for a small ISP.

Might not be appealing, but does it provide the service you promised to your customer? I'm paying my ISP for the connectivity, not Netflix.

If the ISP wants to modify our contract to include a Netflix peering surcharge, because the cost of that connection is disproportionate to the rest of the service (use whatever method of determining typical non-Netflix user you want) that's fine and I'll evaluate the value of that new contract. After which I'll decide whether paying the charge or canceling Netflix. BUT I expect you'll be adding similar charges for other heavy broadband usages such as video Torrent downloads as well.

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Tom 13
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Re: geographical and "telco-political"

While that's all true, there's something else at work here. For a US resident, I live in a sweet spot for ISP cable competition: the DC metropolitan area. Comcast and Verizon BOTH have the area wired for high speed service, plus there are a number of other players in the area. Even so, Verizon is not delivering Netflix adequately. Until a few months ago, the same was true with Comcast. Which doesn't mean those problems won't need to be solved to get reliable high speed streaming to rural customers, only that even if they had that service Netflix would still be an issue. In fact, if Brett Glass is correct, the issue will be more pronounced in high density metropolitan areas than low density rural ones, simply because there will be a higher likelihood of parallel streams in the high density area.

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Tom 13
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Re: solution is metered pricing

Not in this instance. The Netflix issue is congestion between the ISP peers and/or Netflix, not between the customer peers the ISP is serving. Hence the point about allowing the ISP to cache the data.

Yes, I'd generally prefer metered pricing because I think it solves the the freetard skimmer problem, but this isn't a problem it would fix. I'll particularly note this as a FIOS customer who also uses Netflix. The rest of my streaming is fine, it's ONLY Netflix which has issues with buffering, stutter, or sometimes even not being able to display information about a tv show/movie I want to watch.

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US Social Security 'wasted $300 million on an IT BOONDOGGLE'

Tom 13
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Re: There seems to be no penalty for running over budget

On really huge projects there isn't, but for reasons outside of the usual accusations of graft and corruption. My roommate does R&D work for a branch of government. There are basically two vendors in the US who do the work for which they contract. So if you try to inflict the sorts of financial penalties you'd get in a broad market, you wind up with the unintended consequence of handing the other guy a monopoly.

Which isn't to say there isn't a hell of a lot of back scratching and other corruption in the system, just that even if you could eliminate the corruption you'd still have a problem because there are only a small number of companies that can play on the really BIG projects.

On little ones, like the contract on which I work, they'll cut us off in a heart-beat if we don't perform. Because there are lots of other vendors out there doing the same thing and we're easily replaced.

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Tom 13
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Re: Amateurs

In fairness to the NHS, their system is 10x more complicated than SSA's. SSA is essentially: was there someone who at some point in time contributed money to SS. If yes, process claim, if no, reject. And since that person is either you directly or a parent or guardian, confirming the contribution is relatively straight forward. After that, consult the contribution table, consult the payout percentage, and you're done. (With the built-in faulty fraud detectors of course.) The only thing making it complicated is the shear size of the thing.

NHS on the other hand has all sorts of other information to track. Granted they gain some on the shear size of the thing, but those exponentials on the complexity are killer.

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Beancounters tell NASA it's too poor to fly planned mega-rocket

Tom 13
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Re: Solid boosters?

Solid rockets on man-rated vehicles are risky, but manageable as the Russians have proven. It's strapping them onto liquid rockets that makes them a disaster-in-waiting.

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Apple fanbois SCREAM as update BRICKS their Macbook Airs

Tom 13
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The problem you see is all those third party apps and hardware

it makes it nearly impossible to properly regression test....

What? There are no third party apps and the hardware components are hand selected by Apple?

Never mind.

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Want to beat Verizon's slow Netflix? Get a VPN

Tom 13
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Re: Verizon appears to be the worst

Agreed enough to give you an upvote, but this bit isn't correct. They're pretty much all about the same. We're currently with Verizon because after the conversion to high def, Comcast had their cable lines so screwed up they were fogging the picture on their cable package. Initially I didn't go with them because they were known to be virus central on shared connections. FIOS and DSL avoided the shared line issues.

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Tom 13
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Re: Why aren't customer's sueing? Business units, transit, and peering

In my case it's because the Verizon bill is technically in my landlord's name, so I don't have standing to sue. Even if it were, without being certified as a class, I'd have to go to small claims court where I'd have to pony up the cash to fight their well paid lawyers. So I'd still be out of luck.

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Tom 13
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Re: Probably, but not necessarily ...

You're down in the weeds on this. Come up to a higher level.

Verzion has the pipes to send the data to their customers. They aren't doing it. Therefore it is Verizon's issue, not Netflix. I know what I pay Verizon a month, and I know what I pay Netflix a month. I know what Verizon promised me, I know what Netflix promised me. Verizon is the one who isn't delivering and I'm paying them better than 5 times as much money.

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ITC: Seagate and LSI can infringe Realtek patents because Realtek isn't in the US

Tom 13
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Some El Reg authors need to do a bit more fact checking

The ALJ conducted an evidentiary hearing from June 1-9, 2009 .. Prior to the hearing, Qimonda tacitly withdrew three of the asserted patents: the '055 patent, the '240 patent, and the '456 patent. Qimonda did not present evidence regarding those patents at the hearing, and did not include any analysis of those patents in its post-hearing briefing.

On October 14, 2009, the ALJ issued his final ID. The ID formally withdrew the '055 patent, the '240 patent, and the '456 patent from the investigation. The ALJ found that based on his claim constructions, Qimonda had not demonstrated that it practices any of the patents in suit. Accordingly, the ALJ ruled that an industry does not exist in the United States that exploits any of the four remaining asserted patents, as required by 19 U.S.C. § 1337(a)(2). The ALJ ruled that certain LSI products infringe certain claims of the' 918 patent, but that no accused products infringe any of the other asserted patents. The ALJ ruled that all of the asserted claims of the '918 patent, and some of the asserted claims of the '434 patent, are invalid under 35 U.S.C. § 102, but that the asserted claims of the' 670 and '899 patents are not invalid.

http://www.usitc.gov/publications/337/pub4268_volume_1_of_2.pdf

So Realtech fired the scattergun, but their shells were filled with rock salt, not actual pellets.

And really, it didn't take that much digging for me to find the actual document.

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Manic malware Mayhem spreads through Linux, FreeBSD web servers

Tom 13
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Re: problem with enabling autoupdate is simple

This conventional wisdom, much like complex passwords for everything, is one that needs to be re-examined.

Not all systems are mission critical. In fact, I expect that even most systems that get classified as mission critical don't require the level of security that tests every patch before it is deployed. Those that do most likely have the fund available to do that testing including the manpower required for it. Next, look at the lists of released patches that have broken systems in the last decade. Now compare that with the number of virus signature updates that have broken systems. I think the virus scanners have broken more systems than the patches have and very few places run without auto-updating their virus sigs every single day. Which means that on a rational basis, most systems can probably be auto-updated with relative safety. Certainly many of them can be, especially user boxes.

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Tom 13
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Re: not even the most fanatical Linux fanboi would blame windows

Yes, yes they would. They wouldn't be any more correct than the MS fanbois who are always spouting off about how many vulnerabilities Linux has, but they would. Granted MOST Linux admins wouldn't.

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Tom 13
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Re: Not sure why the thumbs down

It wasn't me, but having followed the threads here, I'll wager it was because you were too specific on the OS. In this case some fanbois will be particularly offended that you recommended it in an article about it being compromised by malware. No, it doesn't matter how factually/statistically correct you are.

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There's NOTHING on TV in Europe – American video DOMINATES

Tom 13
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Re: Quantity != Quality

There's some good stuff out there. Just not on broadcast for the most part.

Although I will confess the next season doesn't look promising. B5, Stargate, Eureka, Sanctuary, and Warehouse 13 are all gone now. All Gone. And I haven't noticed anything promising on the horizon.

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Oh girl, you jus' didn't: Level 3 slaps Verizon in Netflix throttle blowup

Tom 13
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Nah. Catfights can be amusing and people will crowd around to watch them. This is more like a rhinoceros and an elephant fighting. Only a damn fool wants to be close to that fight.

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Tom 13
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Re: The money has been followed

I am both a Verizon FIOS and Netflix subscriber. From my point of view it is really very simple, but I have no good legal way to attack the problem: Verizon is not supplying me the service they promised. Netflix is.

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Tom 13
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Re: Monopoly = Artificial Scarcity

There's just one huge gaping hole in your argument.

The Verizon vs Netflix problem isn't in the last mile. It's in the interconnects between the big boys.

Other than that I like the idea. The intermixing of media production, broadcast etc. gives rise to precisely the sorts of problems the Sherman anti-trust act allegedly is intended to alleviate.

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Tom 13
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Re: Verizon can STFU & FOAD, Kthxbai.

Grasshopper, you are suffering a delusion. Verizon is not one company. They only want you to think that. In truth they are many, many small companies. None of whom talk to each other. Especially on the wireless ones. I discovered this over 20 years ago when handling the finances for a small non-profit. For various and sundry reasons three cell phones were purchased in Philadelphia, PA to support a couple of officers. That was about three years before me. Then we decided that we should issue cell phones to more officers. So I bought 4 more from a store in Gaithersburg, MD. And asked them to consolidate the billing for the phones. Took me the better part of two years before I finally found a high level manager who could work out how to do it. The problem in the interim was making sure the right checks got applied to the correct phones so that service wouldn't get cut off.

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Tom 13
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Re: More ports is still the wrong answer

There are NO natural monopolies. ALL monopolies are a result of government regulation. Especially in the case of Telcos.

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Sit back down, Julian Assange™, you're not going anywhere just yet

Tom 13
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Re: I'm guessing the Ecuadorian embassy doesn't have vehicular access

Ambassadors, even from Ecuador, don't WALK anywhere for official business.

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Tom 13
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Re: The funniest element in the Martyrdom of St Julian

Now, now! Don't go using logic or anything. This St. Julian we're talking about here. Last time I checked he ranked higher than Snowden among the Progressive Saints. Why he's almost up there with Alger Hiss and the Rosenbergs.

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MYSTERIOUS Siberia CRATER: ALIENS or METEOR not involved, officials insist

Tom 13
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Too be on the safe side, check for both. And er, molemen too.

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