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* Posts by John Foster

5 posts • joined 20 Aug 2008

Met Office: Global warming sceptics 'have heads in sand'

John Foster

2 out of 13 or so

If only 2 years out of 13 were cooler than average, then does that infer that there is no warming?

if those 2 years were compared to the average temperature globally over 50 years, then they would appear years of above average temperature.

Lets look at this more carefully. When Pinotubo volcano erupted back in the early 90's, the temperature dipped globally, as did the temperature dip when the volcano in Mexico erupted. Each large volcanic eruption skews the average, filters out more solar radiation, and hence causes a decrease in world temperature.

It was stated by MET that the recent two years data regarding global temperature were impacted by a La Nina (cooler than average temperature at the sea surface in the Pacific.

Okay, ceteris paribus, (all things remaing the same, ie., a return to El Nino conditions should result in new higher than average global temperature.

Who can deny the inference?

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Google flicks pennies down geothermal well

John Foster
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City Water is Warm Enuff

Just put heat pumps in each and every room of the house, and be sure to connect them up to the City water supply. Yep, it is being done right now by Demarco....

In new subdivisions you can install a separte underground line apart from domestic water supply...

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/stocks/ENCS/

Demarco is the licensed trading arm of Encore Energy

Cheers

JMF

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Arctic ice refuses to melt as ordered

John Foster
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Arctic SST today are above the freezing level for sea water

The weather office data shows that SST of the Arctic on August 20th, 2008, are quite high for the Arctic Ocean.

New sea ice melts below 0 Celsius, and as salinity increases the melting temperature decreases. See the following graph:

http://nsidc.org/seaice/intro.html

The graph shows that the freezing temperature of some first ice may be -2 celsius. I don't see to many SST on the Environment Canada web site for the Arctic Ocean below -2 celsius.

May be what will happen this year will be a repeat of the last few years: record levels of open sea water.

Good question regarding the antique sea crossings in the Arctic. Don't have the answer of the top of my head, so will research the cause or proximate cause for that.

regards

JMF

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John Foster

Not too Cold Here in BC anymore

There is a major difference between 1st year sea ice and older, multi-year sea ice. 1st year ice has much more salt in it, and therefore melts at a faster rate than older ice with less sea salt.

The winters here are now much milder than they ever were in the decades of 1950-1980. Heck, we can grow kiwi's, palms, and even bananas on the coast of British Columbia.

Our ski hill closed down in the 1990's, was put up for sale in 2007. No one bought it, and it has only opened once this decade. We never get temperatures lower than about -25 Celsius, but in the 1950's and 1960's we would get -40 celsius temperatures.

And even more weird is the fact that the coldest temperatures of the year is not always January, but can be in March or earlier in November.

I used to fly small planes in the winter here. Most years Shuswap Lake froze over, as did Kamloops Lake. Last winter was the first winter this decade that ice formed on Kamloops Lake.

Even some large lakes in Wells Gray Park are not freezing up.

The only lake in BC which has "never" frozen over in the interior is Kootenay Lake....but now the trend, more often than not, is that most large lakes in the southern half of BC are not freezing over at all.

Plus, I completed graduate course work in climate change science, and agree that climate modification is in progress because of anthropogenic emissions such as GHG's, deforestation, inputs of ozone depleting substances into the stratosphere, more aerosols than ever (China and India together lead the pack in this which causes cooling in the North Pacific, increase snow melt and ice melt due to lower albedo's).

The real serious issue in my opinion with rapid climate change is the loss of habitat and species extinction. Humans can adapt, but most terrerstrial life forms cannot adapt fast enough, or move....so there will be some species at risk of extinction, and adding to the normal rate of habitat loss, that means disaster for most ecosystems.

In BC because the winters never get cold, the Mountain Pine Beetle has (MPB) killed off most of the Ponderosa and Lodgepole pine here. The extent of the epidemic is shocking. Over 80% of the mature timber in the Caribou and other regions is dead. The MPB larvae are killed off when winter temperatures reach -37 celsius or lower for a sustained time.

Since the bulk of the pine forest is 100+ years old, we have a very good record of what past winter temperatures were on average here in BC: and that is that it has always reached lower temperatures than -37 celsius here on average.

There was some past epidemics of MPB in southern BC, but they did not become large, nor impact the entire provincial forest containing pine.

regards

JMF

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John Foster
Alert

Fast Retreat

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=19&fy=2007&sm=08&sd=19&sy=2008

Shows that the ice extent is quite close to last year. Shows also that rate of recession of ice is greater this year than last year for the month of July and so far for August.

That is the case too with the cherries and peaches and tomatoes this summer, despite the hottest and driest summer on record (Pacific Northwest)...they are late maturing due to cold spring.

Perhaps the arctic ice retreat will extend into October and exceed that of last year in extent of retreat.

chao

JMF

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