> That sounds fishy.
>This would mean your sample space is the space of "two dead people in a row". This doesn't sound well-defined.
*sigh* - yes there is a bunch of stuff missing from my post because I a) didn't have all the details to hand, and , b) assumed that intelligent people would go digging with the details I'd given to get the full picture*.
To clarify, head on over to badscience.net and search for "The Prosecutor's Phallusy" to get all the info. To quote, what I believe is the main point in this, I'll quote from the original post:
"Two babies in one family have died. This in itself is very rare. Once this rare event has occurred, the jury needs to weigh up two competing explanations for the babies’ deaths: double SIDS or double murder. Under normal circumstances – before any babies have died – double SIDS is very unlikely, and so is double murder. But now that the rare event of two babies dying in one family has occurred, the two explanations – double murder or double SIDS – are suddenly both very likely. If we really wanted to play statistics, we would need to know which is relatively more rare, double SIDS or double murder."
I will point out that my initial statement of twice as likely was wrong - it appears to be between 4.5:1 and 9:1 in favour of it being SIDS.
* I've deliberately tried to be a bit vague as, I assume, Tim Worstall would have given the details if he could/felt it appropriate.