1. The NY Times were reporting a couple of weeks ago (I think it was the 28/8) that this year, it will be the first year since 1950 (aka the time that the stats of the sort were recorded) that the price of the real estate in america will be falling. (I assume with the exception of Manhattan and Palm Beach where the limited space guarantees the value).
It appears that the speed of changing/moving into houses is lower than the available real estate, and G*d knows why? Is it because we got sick of moving around, is it because we telecommute, is it because we enjoy reading about the rise in the value of (our own?) properties... this is a fact.
2. Before the crisis the Fed was likely to increase the interest rates. That would have meant that capital would have moved from the markets to the bank coffers. Now, if you are a bank (that invests in the stock market as well... ) what would have been your pick? To pay higher interest rates to an even larger whole and a declining market or to pay low interest rates and have a steady-yuppie (upwardly mobile) market?
Of course you would go for the second gents... and you dont have to be a risk analysis expert and/or an Eaton graduate for that reason... ;)
I dont know what you make of this but I am a mere charterd engineer so I am happy to give my bet for the future in somebody elses field of expertise, with the ease that I bet Olympiacos Piraeus will make it through in the next leg of the Champions League:
1. We have seen just the beginning of the crisis.
2. Some Real estate funded funds will have to shrink in order to increase once more the speed of movement of capital, that gives life in to our system.
3. We may not see a collapse in the form of the 1920's (well... a third of our population never left that state since then) but we shall see some crisis.
4. The price of oil will fall. Putin's men have to win the elections over there in a couple of months and need some help till then.