Another fine article Trev, good work. I'm inclined to agree with your viewpoint, and I've felt this way for a while. Other than NSX and VSAN, VMware has pretty much been in a holding pattern for quite a while. For someone who cut their industry teeth on Novell products, I'm starting to get a touch of deja vu.
No company in tech is too big to fail (not even Apple, given enough time) and I wonder if maybe there was a touch of arrogance at the top of the company a few years back that's contributed to the current state. Obviously revenues are still good, but once people think of their tech as "old hat", then it's only downhill from there.
I've pivoted from VMware and Hyper-V to public cloud - whether you like it or not, those are the skills you'll need for the foreseeable future if you want to get the mortgage paid off a bit quicker.