5 years hence? Snoracle Dominance? Hee-haw!
Two reader comments force me to respond:
"Take that model & apply it to MySQL & you have to hope in 3-5 years if allowed to develop it might do as Linux has..." - so the Commissioners are supposed to be fortune tellers? Using this logic, just about every acquisition or merger should be blocked because miracles might happen and some little idea today might turn into a game-changer someday in the future and letting a big evil company buy it now might change the future and stifle something. There goes the VC model...
"The point is that an Oracle/Sun combo will put Oracle in to (sic) a dominant position which can block competition." - This comment is simply not defensible. Yes, an Oracle/Sun combination will have good breadth. But they will not be #1 or #2 in any categories - except where Oracle is already #1. Sun is dying as a standalone company. Solaris (and UNIX) is in decline. Sun's servers have been losing marketshare since 2000. Sun's proprietary chip development is in tatters. Sun's storage revenue (most of which is just OEM) has been in decline. IBM makes more money from JAVA than Sun does. Sun has no credible presence in middleware. StarOffice is a money pit. Sun has been losing Wall Street business. Sun has been losing HPC business. Sun's revenue has been eroding. Sun's best and brightest have been leaving or RIF'ed. Sun has either no senior management (they've all bailed or gone fishing) or they have the worst senior management in high tech - take your pick.
Sure, a Cisco-Sun combination sounds exciting on paper. But Cisco and all the rest of the large technology companies all had a chance to consider buying Sun when it was shopped in H2 2008 and early 2009. Only two companies showed any interest and one, IBM, bailed. Oracle is Sun's (and Sun's customers and Sun's partners and Sun's employees and Sun's investors) last chance. If this deal is blocked Sun rapidly becomes Wang, Prime, Stratus, Cray, SGI.....That result will truly lessen competition.