Has Putin really cocked up in the macro scheme though?
He's certainly miscalculated on this issue, and it's interesting/scary to see what will happen if he's backed even further into a corner given that Russia has the world's most lopsided military power (woefully mismatched to the US in conventional capability but able to blow the world up several times over if really left with nothing to lose).
But on the bigger one this idea that Russia were ever going to work their way to a rebalanced and open modern economy looks implausible. Like the gulf states, venezuela and the many African nations who rely on primary resources for the lions share of GDP I just don't believe it's possible. Norway has done a fabulous job, but it was wealthy and pluralist before oil became a big factor in its economy.
For those that weren't democratic before commodities became more valuable than human labour to their economy the incentives facing politicians are just too lopsided. If a hypothetical Putin had worked hard and honestly to modernise Russia and properly distribute the proceeds of the oil, gas and minerals boom then he'd have been the subject of a coup by someone more like the actual Putin who used military and organised crime muscle to cut 99% of the population out of the money. Putin is at the top because he's unusually good at playing dictator, but that wouldn't give him freedom to screw over the narrow power base he sits on top of.
There's even a name for it, I think. The commodities trap? There are some economic reasons too (unstable economic environment due to wild swings in commodities prices make normal investment high risk) but the main problem is that when a country's wealth exists regardless of the population and not because of it there's absolutely no chance of the pluralist political environment needed to sustain a modern economy.